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AFRM

AFFIRM HOLDINGS (AFRM) Short Trade Setup and AnalysisAFFIRM HOLDINGS (AFRM) on the 15-minute timeframe: Trade Summary Position: Short Trade Entry: $46.84 Stop Loss: $48.47 Take Profit Targets: TP1: $44.84 (Hit) TP2: $41.59 (Hit) TP3: $38.34 (Pending) TP4: $36.33 (Pending) Technical Analysis The price action for AFRM has shown a steady downtrend in alignment with the bearish market sentiment. The position was initiated near the entry point of $46.84, with the Risological dotted trendline indicating a continuous bearish pressure, thus validating the short entry. With TP1 and TP2 already achieved, the price is moving in line with the projected downtrend. The decreasing volume and proximity to the trailing targets suggest that there is further room for downside potential, aiming towards TP3 and TP4. Market Insights Volume: 5.59M (below the 30-day average of 9.08M), indicating moderate sell-off interest. Key Levels: Day’s Range: $40.63 - $42.47, which reflects a steady decline. 52-Week Range: $16.50 - $52.48, showing that the stock is approaching the lower side of its yearly range. Upcoming Earnings: In 12 days, which could further influence AFRM’s trend based on market expectations. This technical setup aligns with the broader market indicators and the prevailing bearish momentum in AFRM. Further downside potential remains viable as the trend continues.
NASDAQ:AFRMShort
by ProfitsNinja
Affirm Holdings ($AFRM) Surge 21% in Thursday Premarket TradingAffirm Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ), a leader in the "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) sector, recently posted an impressive surge of 21% in premarket trading, following a stellar earnings report that exceeded analysts' expectations on multiple fronts. This strong performance is a pivotal moment for the company, reflecting both significant fundamental strength and a favorable technical setup. A Closer Look at Earnings and Growth Metrics Affirm's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat across the board, sending a strong signal to investors about the company's growth trajectory and financial health. The company reported a loss per share of just 14 cents, far better than the 51-cent loss anticipated by analysts. Additionally, revenue came in at $659 million, surpassing the average estimate of $604 million. These results were bolstered by a 31% year-over-year increase in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to $7.2 billion, indicating a healthy uptick in consumer demand and transaction volume on Affirm's platform. This growth is even more notable considering the current macroeconomic challenges, including inflationary pressures and a generally cautious consumer environment. The company also reported a 48% year-over-year increase in revenue, coupled with a significant reduction in its net loss, which narrowed from $206 million a year ago to $45.1 million. Affirm's active merchant count rose to over 300,000, and active consumers grew by 19% to 18.6 million. This increase in both merchant and consumer engagement suggests that the company's value proposition is resonating in the market. CEO Max Levchin highlighted a new target for achieving operating profitability on a GAAP basis by the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, a goal that appears increasingly attainable given the current momentum. Looking ahead, Affirm projects revenue between $640 million and $670 million for the upcoming quarter, above the $625 million forecast by analysts. This optimistic guidance suggests management's confidence in the company’s ability to maintain its growth trajectory. Key Drivers of Growth Affirm (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ) has made several strategic moves that are expected to drive further growth. The company's expanding partnerships with giants like Apple, Amazon, and Shopify are particularly noteworthy. These alliances not only increase Affirm's visibility and accessibility but also position it to benefit from the robust e-commerce growth trends. For example, the partnership with Apple allows U.S. Apple Pay users to apply for loans directly through Affirm (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ) on their iPhones and iPads, significantly expanding its reach. The planned launch in the UK by the end of this year further diversifies Affirm’s revenue streams and exposes it to new markets, which could be crucial for sustained growth. Additionally, Bank of America analysts pointed out that potential interest rate cuts could reduce Affirm's funding costs and improve gains on loan sales, which would further enhance its financial performance. The recent decision to move merchants to a 36% APR cap on loans, up from 30% previously, should also act as a tailwind for yield and GMV growth. Technical Analysis: A Bullish Gap-Up Pattern with Caution From a technical perspective, Affirm's 21% surge has placed the stock in a classic "gap-up" pattern, where the price jumps significantly higher than its previous close, leaving a visible gap on the stock chart. This is often viewed as a bullish reversal pattern, signifying renewed investor interest and potential for further upside. However, while this gap-up is encouraging, it also comes with a degree of caution. Stocks that gap up sharply are often considered overbought in the short term, which can lead to a period of consolidation or a pullback as some investors lock in profits. This is particularly relevant given the stock's prior decline of 36% year-to-date, suggesting that while the current momentum is positive, it may not be sustainable without continued strong performance and favorable market conditions. Challenges Ahead: Navigating Macroeconomic Headwinds Despite the upbeat results, Affirm (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ) faces challenges that could impact its future growth. The potential for a consumer slowdown, as highlighted by Lido Advisors' chief market strategist Gina Sanchez, poses a risk. As a BNPL provider, Affirm's business model relies heavily on consumer spending, which could be constrained if economic conditions worsen. Moreover, while interest rate cuts could benefit Affirm (NYSE: NASDAQ:AFRM ), the timing and extent of these cuts remain uncertain. Investors will need to keep a close eye on Federal Reserve policy decisions, as they could significantly impact Affirm's cost of funding and overall profitability. Conclusion: A Stock to Watch with Balanced Prospects Affirm's recent earnings report is a testament to the company's operational resilience and strategic positioning in a rapidly evolving market. With strong revenue growth, improving margins, and key partnerships driving momentum, Affirm is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding BNPL market. However, investors should remain mindful of the potential risks, particularly around consumer spending patterns and macroeconomic uncertainties.
NASDAQ:AFRMLong
by DEXWireNews
💳📈 Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Analysis 🔍📊Market Position: Affirm Holdings NASDAQ:AFRM is a leader in the rapidly growing buy now, pay later (BNPL) market, particularly popular among younger consumers. Strategic partnerships with major retailers like Amazon and Shopify distinguish Affirm from its competitors, positioning it to capture significant market share. Service Expansion: A recent expansion of services with Walmart now includes pay-over-time options at self-checkout kiosks in over 4,500 stores, which could drive higher adoption rates and transaction volumes. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on Affirm Holdings above the $30.50-$31.00 level. Upside Potential: With an upside target set at $54.00-$55.00, Affirm's strong growth potential and advantageous position in the BNPL market are noteworthy. 📈💳 Monitor Affirm Holdings for promising investment opportunities! #AFRM #BNPL 🔍📊
NASDAQ:AFRMLong
by Richtv_official
Affirm Posted a Smaller-Than-Expected Loss Stock down 9.11%Consumer financing firm Affirm Holdings ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) reported a smaller-than-expected loss in the March quarter, while revenue and other financial metrics beat Wall Street targets. Guidance came in above expectations, and Affirm stock was down 8.8% in morning trading. The company reported a 43-cent per share loss for the three months ended March 31, compared with an 86 cent per-share loss in the year-earlier period. Affirm said revenue climbed 51% to $576 million, with revenue minus transaction expenses coming in at $231 million compared to estimates of $217 million. Gross merchandise volume rose 36% to $6.3 billion, and the new Affirm Card brought in $35.67 million in revenue, up 21% versus estimates of $37 million. For the current June quarter, Affirm ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) expects revenue of $595 million at the midpoint of its outlook, topping estimates of $579 million. It forecasts GMV of $6.85 billion, edging by estimates of $6.65 billion. NASDAQ:AFRM stock had retreated 27% in 2024 prior to the release of fiscal Q3 earnings but has clawed back above its 50-day moving average. Affirm is one of the biggest providers of buy now, pay later installment payment services, with its initial public offering raising $1.2 billion in January 2021.
NASDAQ:AFRMShort
by DEXWireNews
$AFRM: 🚨 Road to $55 🚀Hi everyone, Affirm Holdings ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) seems to be capitalizing on their consumers' repayment abilities, showing promising technical signals. Currently, the hourly and daily indicators are tightening, hinting at potential explosion in either direction (Upside likely). Should the price surpass the daily and monthly resistance levels, accompanied by the hourly or daily indicators crossing above the monthly, we could see a surge towards $55, with the weekly indicators serving as a potential support level. Good luck!
NASDAQ:AFRMLong
by SierrasTrades
Affirm Holdings ($AFRM) Surges but Dips shortly After EarningsAffirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AFRM ), a leading player in the booming consumer financing sector, recently unveiled its fiscal second-quarter earnings, sending mixed signals to investors. Despite surpassing revenue expectations and narrowing its losses, the company's stock witnessed a slight dip amidst concerns over its guidance amidst market volatility. Analyzing the Numbers: In its latest earnings report, Affirm ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) reported a narrower-than-expected loss of 54 cents per share for the three months ending December 31, significantly beating analyst estimates of a 72 cents per share loss. Moreover, the company's revenue soared by 48% year-over-year to $591 million, comfortably surpassing Wall Street projections of $521 million. Affirm's ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) robust performance was underscored by a 32% surge in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $7.5 billion, with the new Affirm Card contributing $400 million to GMV. Market Reaction: Despite the impressive financial metrics, NASDAQ:AFRM stock experienced a slight 1.1% decline in morning trading following the earnings release. This dip can be attributed to concerns surrounding the company's guidance, which, though above expectations, may not have been deemed sufficient given the stock's substantial 270% surge over the past 52 weeks. Analyst Insights: RBC Capital analyst Daniel Perlin remains optimistic about Affirm's ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) growth prospects, emphasizing the company's trajectory, market share gains, and its ability to sustain profitable growth even in an environment of elevated interest rates. Perlin's bullish sentiment echoes broader market sentiment, which views Affirm as a frontrunner in the burgeoning "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) industry. Future Outlook: Looking ahead, Affirm ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) provided guidance for the current March quarter, projecting revenue of $540 million and GMV of $5.9 billion, slightly surpassing analyst estimates. This forward-looking guidance will be crucial in gauging the company's ability to navigate through market headwinds and sustain its growth momentum amidst increasing competition and evolving consumer preferences. Conclusion: Affirm Holdings' ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) recent earnings report paints a picture of a company poised for continued growth despite market uncertainties. With a solid foundation in the rapidly expanding BNPL sector and strategic expansions into other financial services, Affirm ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) remains well-positioned to capitalize on the shifting landscape of consumer finance. As investors navigate through market volatility, Affirm's ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) ability to execute its growth strategy effectively will be key in determining its long-term success.
NASDAQ:AFRM
by DEXWireNews
$AFRM COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS Observing the price action of NASDAQ:AFRM , it is evident that it has been navigating through a corrective wave since its inception. Recently, it has culminated the larger corrective Wave B, under which it has also completed the primary Wave C. The completion of Wave C was marked by the termination of Wave 5. This progression implies that NASDAQ:AFRM is now embarking on the larger Wave C, which is anticipated to descend below the trough of Wave A. Based on my analysis, I project the termination of Wave C near the $4 mark. However, it's important to note that the exact timing and price level remain uncertain while the bearish POI stands firm
NASDAQ:AFRMShort
by thekidtrader11
2
$AFRM Possible Double Top InsightNASDAQ:AFRM double top insight on the weekly chart, a development that is garnering attention from both bears and bulls in the market. Bears are keen on seeing the stock reach this critical level soon, as it could indicate a reversal and a potential downturn. On the other hand, bulls are looking for signs of bullish consolidation, as this could provide the momentum needed to break through this level, invalidating the double top and potentially leading to further upward movement.
NASDAQ:AFRM
by AlgoTradeAlert
$AFRM Double TopThe stock of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (ticker symbol: NASDAQ:AFRM ), has demonstrated a technical pattern known as a "Double Top." This pattern is identified on the chart by two distinct peaks at approximately the same price level and is considered a bearish reversal formation. It typically indicates that the stock has attempted to break through a certain price point on two separate occasions but has failed to maintain upward momentum. In the case of NASDAQ:AFRM , after the stock price reached its first peak, it subsequently retreated, only to rise back to that peak level again. The inability of the stock to push past this resistance level during the second attempt is what completes the Double Top pattern. Technical analysts interpret this as a signal that the buying pressure is exhausted and that the sellers are starting to dominate, potentially leading to a trend reversal from previously bullish to bearish. The confirmation of the Double Top pattern would come with a break below the support level that lies between the two peaks, often referred to as the "neckline." If the price of NASDAQ:AFRM falls below this neckline with significant volume, it could confirm the pattern and suggest a potential sell-off, as traders may take this as a cue to exit long positions or possibly establish short positions. Investors using technical analysis would keep a close watch on NASDAQ:AFRM for any significant moves below the neckline, as this could indicate the start of a downward trend and a shift in the stock’s momentum. It's important to note, though, that while technical patterns like the Double Top can provide insights, they should ideally be considered alongside other fundamental and market factors when making investment decisions.
NASDAQ:AFRM
by AlgoTradeAlert
2
AFRM Affirm Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AFRM ahead of the previous earnings: or when you saw those big puts adding: Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AFRM Affirm Holdings prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $2.17. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:AFRMShort
by TopgOptions
AFRM Affirm Holdings big puts addingLast time, AFRM puts were profitable: This week, Affirm Holdings (AFRM) saw a notable increase in the acquisition of puts with a November 3rd expiration date, set at a $17.50 strike price with a premium of $0.67. Affirm operates within the "buy now, pay later" model, which has also been dubbed as "pay never" by some analysts. However, it's worth noting that AFRM currently operates as an unprofitable venture, and its current valuation may be perceived as inflated. I'm eager to hear your perspective on this matter!
NASDAQ:AFRMShort
by TopgOptions
The Day Ahead: Premium Selling in IWM, QQQ, FXI, GDXJ, SMHIt's Fryyyydayyyy ... (which is when I tend to do all my "stuff"). Well, unless you've been hiding under a rock (no judgment here), you'll know that premium-selling in broad market isn't very good here, with IWM IVR/IV at 12.3/19.7%, QQQ at 9.1/20.1%, and SPY at 6.8/14.4%. That sub-25 IVR is telling you that broad market IV is in the bottom quarter of its 52-week range which for premium-sellers is kind of drag. Your premium-selling options in this environment (at least from a premium selling perspective) are to (a) do nothing; (b) sell your go-to delta and duration for whatever the market is paying, knowing that you might get assigned at the strike or have a poo pile to manage toward expiry; or (c) go longer-dated to get paid something decent with the probability of profit (POP) and or probability of touch (POT) that you're used to. Since I'm trying to create cash flow here (at least in the retirement account), I generally opt for (c), since I'm not fond of cleaning up poo piles with a great deal of frequency and like high POP/low POT. With that goal in mind, I generally target the shortest duration <16 delta strike that is paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Currently, the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying that in IWM is the December 15th 164 (14 delta, bid 1.65); in QQQ, the December 15th 325 (14 delta, bid 3.26); and in SPY, the Jan 19th 400 (16 delta, bid 4.24), so I'll look to add short put rungs in those durations or greater. Because broad market sucks so hard though, I'll also be venturing out into the exchange-traded fund space to see if I can scrounge up any premium there. Currently, FXI (IVR 11.3/30.8%), GDXJ (7.6/30.3%), and SMH (17.6/28.7%) are at the top of my screener when sorted for 30-day IV, but you can see that IV is also at the low end of the 52 week range in that space, too. The ideal is to sell in both high IVR/high IV with IVR >50/IV>35% for ETF's, but there is nothing currently in the space with those metrics, so -- as with broad market -- you're options are the same: (a) do nothing; (b) sell your go-to delta/duration with the chips falling where they may; or (c) sell longer duration with your go-to POP/POT. Here are the shortest duration <16 strikes paying around 1% of strike price in credit for these underlyings: FXI, Dec 15th 22.85, 13 delta, bid .29 (don't know what the odd ball strike is about). GDXJ, Nov 17th 29, 12 delta, bid .31. SMH, Nov 17th 130, 13 delta, bid 1.35. I would note that there is a highly options-liquid ETF with >50% IV, and it's TQQQ, with an IVR of 17.3 and a 30-day IV of (wait for it) ... 70.5%. It's a leveraged instrument, so I would exercise caution trading it with the expectation that, for example, the 16 delta (the 2 times expected move strike in non-leveraged stuff) is a "safe" strike to sell with limited assignment risk, a high probability of expiring worthless, and/or not being an in-the-money headache toward expiry. As long as you're familiar with all these "warts," it's probably okay to play small. That being said, it won't be particularly buying power efficient on margin; it looks like my broker's requiring that it be cash secured (most underlyings require 20% of the strike price or thereabouts in buying power), so the buying power requirement makes it "less sexy" in spite of its high IV. Lastly, I would be neglectful were I to not mention the single name space for premium-selling here, but my general order of preference in selling premium (particularly in the retirement account) is (a) broad market; (b) exchange-traded funds; and (c) single name (in that order). Here are the top 30-day IV, highly options liquid single name underlyings at the moment that are trading at >$20/share and with a 30-day>50%. There isn't a ton here and (as with everything else), IV is at the low end of its 52-week range (I mean 1.0? c'monnnn, you're killing me here, smalls): AFRM (Tech/Software)), IVR/IV 1.0/75.5% RIVN (Automaker/EV), 5.5/65.5% TSLA (Automaker/EV), 11.3/52.7%
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
AFRM Can it continue the move after earnings ?AFRM jumped about 27% from a decent earnings beat on Thursday August 24th. It is now sitting in the tip of a bullish pennant pattern and at the POC line of the volume profile. The dual time frame RS indicator suggests strength is above 50 after the close of the week fade. The MACD lines crossing and above the horizontal . zero suggests this is simply a rest in bullish momentum Price is above then mean VWAP and tracking one standard deviation above it. My trade plan is long or short depending on how price moves off the POC line. I have drawn entry levels for a market or buy stop order. The stop loss would be the opposite blue line. Targets start out at 19.5 and upside from there.
NASDAQ:AFRM
by AwesomeAvani
AFRM - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Breakdown support of rising trend channel in the medium long term. 🔹Support at 13.81 and Resistance at 19.99 in Rectangle formation 🔹Slightly risen above the resistance level of 17. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern: 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ:AFRMLong
by wavepoint99
AFRM Affirm Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold AFRM here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AFRM Affirm Holdings prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 14.50usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2023-8-25, for a premium of approximately $1.12. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:AFRMShort
by TopgOptions
2
AFRM | InformativeNASDAQ:AFRM If the price of AFRM breaks above the bullish line of 17.33, it may indicate a bullish signal, suggesting potential upward price movement. In this scenario, the target prices could be set at 17.96 and 18.72. Conversely, if the price of AFRM breaks below the bearish line of 16.11, it may suggest a bearish signal, implying potential downward price movement. In this case, the target prices could be set at 15.45, 14.79, 13.92, and 11.86. *In addition to the provided information, I want to mention that personally, I hold a bearish outlook on AFRM. The stock was rejected at the EMA 200 on the daily chart, and a bearish engulfing candlestick has formed. These factors indicate a potential bearish price action in the near future.
NASDAQ:AFRM
by shkspr
AFRM - Might squeeze soon Got sold hard yesterday into the supply zone, despite good news, but that proved to be backtest of breakout level at 16, which was held and it got yesterday's gains back. Two overhead levels to watch, first at 600DMA around 19-20. Second, is overhead supply at 22. IMO yesterday's sell-off was test of 200DMA and today's PA tells us that bulls like the price even at that level, so 23 zone is a given. what happens there and how you react might be critical. Ideal long trade was on 06/09 to buy at 16.5, but tomorrow might be another chance to add around 18. Then next stop will be 23 or 40 Factors favor bulls right now. I think this will soar high, but needs pitstops along the way. Bear case: Rejection of 20 will test 16 again and then 14.
NASDAQ:AFRMLong
by CheelooTrader