Junior Miners will take some time off soon I see a repeat of March 2020 happening but with birdflu (check out my silver miners AMEX:SILJ thread where the fractal looks better).
Within 5 months, miners had a 42% gain, but within that time period there were 2 huge drops and 3 huge gains:
1. $46-$20 (56% loss) in 2 weeks (June-July)
2. $20-$40 (100% gain) in 4 weeks (July-August)
3. $40-$50 (25% gain) in 4 weeks (August-September)
4. $50-$42 (15% loss) in 4 weeks (September-October)
5. $42-$65 (55% gain) in 6 weeks (October-Mid November)
We'll want to target events 1, 2 and 5. OTM puts and calls on AMEX:NUGT , AMEX:JNUG and AMEX:AGQ will be the way to go on this assuming some exogenous event doesn't take down our markets (hack, EMP etc.), and IV is affordable. 1 will be moderately expensive because of hitting the top (unless it grinds slowly sideways dragging IV down with it). 2 could be pretty expensive. 5 should be highly affordable after a slow walk up and down for 2 months.
I will also be keeping a close eye on several junior miners like NYSE:EXK and one pharmaceutical company NASDAQ:GILD (check those threads also)
AGQ
2XBEAR JUNIOR MINERS LOOKING GOOD FROM HERE!It's time for precious metals to take a cooler.
I noticed AMEX:JDST 's options for $5 is off the chart compared to other months. I bought calls for .20 for $5 strike price in September. I anticipating these going to 2.00 by then which is 1000% return.
I also think AMEX:DUST is worthy of buying at these levels too - except they don't have miners, but I see a 500% return for this stock by the fall.
I will also link to some supportive ideas following this post.
Double Top in Gold That Strangely is Correlated with NividiaDid you know gold and Nividia have an 81% correlation? That's strange. (chart in comments)
I see a double top in gold.
TTM Squeeze firing on weekly, daily, 4 hourly and it's a continuation of a squeeze on the hourly. TTM Squeeze's usually bounce off the opposite side when it breaks/fakes out. Outside an exogenous event I see pm's taking the summer off and reawakening in the fall when the dollar tops out after the BOJ sells US treasuries after China devalues their currency after the dollar spikes when Europe cuts rates soon. It's going to be an epic chain reaction.
The FED will cut rates heading into the election and if Trump wins he'll ride the last meme wave until it crashes and reinstitute a gold standard, or if Biden wins we get CBDC's.
I'll be looking for low IV OTM calls in the fall after the FED cuts rates...
Silver will fall 10% - AGQ will fall 20% for retracementA 70% chance that silver provides a retracement next week, as the attacks on Israel by Iran are not coming out - and the West is getting desperate (I smell a false flag if Iran doesn't bite).
Asia (ChIndia - China & India) are hodling silver and gold and will provide the impetus for the forward price of precious metals.
TTM squeezes normally see price bounce off the opposite end as a fakeout before its continuation. I see that on multiple smaller TF's and a retracement to the middle BB on higher TF's.
I see a huge boost of silver miners coming up shortly, but for now I see a consolidation happening. Options for AMEX:AGQ was .05 for $36 June, so I see this going up to $1 or 20x if all goes as planned.
Then time to reload for metals blasting off!
Silver looks like it could take another 10% haircut before 🚀"That's a HUUUUGE wick" - Deuce Bigalow
Not uncommon for PA to come back down to touch the 20ema - which intersects a big trendline AND illustrates a backtest to the broken downward trendline. I anticipate this move happening fast, and could be combined with a minor market drop overall.
Exo-political situation that's escalating is the USDJPY - and the BOJ is taking it's good ole time with correcting its currency. When they dump treasuries I anticipate a vertical trajectory of precious metals AND miners. When that happens (not IF) that will over-ride any PA - so it might be wise to start building longer positions i.e. OTM call options slated for July expiration ( AMEX:AGQ ).
Since all Central Banks are reactionary in nature, the FED will wait till something breaks in the bond/treasury market but that can't happen until the BOJ dumps treasuries. And that can't happen until the dollar's ascent forces them to do this. So I see a higher dollar still, which will reflect the blunting of precious metals.
EXK will run as long as silver moves higher LONGEXK is a junior miner. With fixed expenses in its mining operations for the most part, margins
rise dramatically when silver is rising and the opposite is likewise applicable. This is the crux
of using junior miners as a means to profit from trending in precious metals. As a penny stock
EXK has hieghtened volatility as compared with Barrock Gold or the GLD ETF. there are other
junior miners. EXK has added 40% to its market cap in two weeks. Until the momentum of spot
silver fades, EXK will continue its momentum. I will add to my long position here and fortify
the call option position as well.
SPOT GOLD Zig Zag Long Average Up LONG or NOT ?SPOT GOLD XAUUSD is shown here on a 30 minute chart. This zig zag long trade is a bit more
than a day in duration. It is meant for use in a forex trade with 10:1 leverage and then
increased upon fluency after some amount of experience. Superimposed on the chart are
support and resistance zones of the visible range and the RSI of the given chart time frame.
Buy low Sell high is implemented. In forex the lot size for the first trade can be 0.02 and then
subsequent buy and sell lot size of 0.01 the zig zagging allows for some compounding while
underway and taking profit underway to assure a winning trade. The stop loss can be set and
reset while underway by looking at at separate indicators. Beginners need less indicators not
more too many and they get stuck into trading paralysis and are uncertain how to proceed and
cannot act in a short time which is important trading intraday. This same strategy works
on lower time frames such as 1-5 minutes .
AGQ- A Silver on steroids ETF LONGAGQ a leveraged ETF of silver and its futures, spent mid-March to mid-April on a great
uptrend from which it pivoted down in a 50% Fib. retracement which took two months
to complete. After a bit of consolidation and sideways channeling, it has finally launched
into bullish continuation as shown on the daily chart. The Lorentzian AI machine learning
indicator printed a buy signal today as it reacted to a green engulfing candle crossing the
mean VWAP anchored from the pivot low of mid-March. This indicator has extreme accuracy
in its signals as demonstrated on its tables. On the MTF RSI indicator, the low TF RSI has been
riding above the higher and crossed the 50 level one week ago. The zero-lag MACD is
confirmatory. Overall AGQ is ready for a swing long trade which I will take. I will zoom
into a 30-60 minute time frame and look for a pivot low from which to enter. My target
is the line showing two standard deviations above the anchored mean VWAP presently
about 36.3 representing at least 20% potential upside and profit. The stop loss will be
narrow with the price presently at the mean VWAP and POC line of the visible range
volume profile I will set it at 29.85. ( The risk to reward is approximately 1:40 )
DYODD !
JNUG - Leveraged Junior Miner ETF Swing LongOn the 4H chart, I show my analysis that JNUG is ready for an uptrend using the MACD / RSI for confirmation.
A head and shoulder pattern is followed by a downtrend which ends in a double bottom for a reversal.
I see the potential for a significant gain of the ETF and its call options over about six months.
See also my idea on XAUUSD / Spot Gold for a more elaborate analysis and discussion.
Globally, the 49ers are back again and I think it is time to enter this market.
Silver Breakout In The Works - Big Move ComingSilver broke out of a descending wedge, a consolidation after its February 2022 run. The 2X silver fund AGQ is looking great here with a technical breakout retest. A bullish MACD cross will likely send this to $50 + then it is going much higher with silver. Precious metals are about to have their moment as stocks and crypto sell off.
AGQ be prepared If Silver manages to break its all time high, I believe AGQ will pass the $400 resistance and reach the next level of resistance at $2500. This will leave us with a 6000% gain. This play all depends on Silver breaking new ATH. I'd still rather own physical silver, but I've definitely thrown money into this incase it plays out the way I envision it.
Long Silver/AGQentry time: 06/14/2021-06/23/2021
entry price: AGQ ~$53 (mine DCA is around 48)
account position: 25%, + 3-5% option
price target: ~60-100% profit , AGQ 80-100
stop loss: will only buy more with big dips (change position into long term, wait for breakout either end of 2021 or in 2022)
AGQ- Time to push higherPlease check my previous ideas on AGQ, why I like to invest in it and the potential there is.
AGQ is a 2x leveraged Silver ETF. Instead of utilizing swaps like most geared funds, AGQ invests in silver futures and forward contracts—this also means the fund is structured as a commodities pool, so it will distribute a K-1 form.
Since I expect silver to go higher, holding some AGQ shares is another way to invest /speculate on the price of silver rising.
the FXPROFESSOR
Silver After Months Price ConsolidationOnce you see the week chart and also saw yesterday day chart volume, what you will do, wait ? The price undergo 6 months consolidation. $AGX, $SIL
AGQ - Lose a thousand or make a million🍒💰My favorite ETF to buy.
Why buy Gold at almost record all time highs?
Why trade Silver futures with a high leverage that can bit me in the ass in a single day?
I prefer to buy the ETF and trade it like a share✔️, thus no expiry on a CFD✔️, no huge leverage✔️, no expiry means i do the broker no favors✔️
For this trade alone I have an account on a broker just for this one, yes only this trade. I deposited an amount I can lose without crying and I do 2 things:
I buy it and I compound the profits.
If Silver goes to 50 again then this should go to 700s again like it did 10 years ago.
If that happens, the broker will be in pain. My favorite people to hurt (financially) is the brokers.. as you all they can afford it.
Risk to reward with a leverage of 5 and compounding is 300 to 1. I take this trade 20 times if I have to (this is actually attempt number 3😉)
Silver and AGQ Looks like a buyGreetings! Precious metals and therefor AGQ look attractive on several time frames for both traders and investors Here is a quick run down of why I am in AGQ as of today (p.s. this isn't financial advise, it is why I do what I do):
Price action just
retested previous horizontal resistance as support at 39.5
popped below the daily bollinger band and is recovering.
retested the 300 daily EMA as support
and the 9 seasons rainbow is suggesting we are crazy oversold
This reinforces my notion in the chart below that the flag pole created a falling wedge and we can reasonable suspect to see price action continue its way up the flagpole with this consolidation either bisecting or trisecting the total move. It is nice to see the flagpole hypothesis backed up with lots of bullish divergences as the chart shows below, with a rough target for silver futures.
A broader look at silver futures shows that price action has just completed a consolidation between the 0.5 and 0.382 fib channels levels and if the flagpole performs it gets us into a nowhere land and between the 0.618 and 0.786 retrace level. That is a pretty wide level but, as an optimist, I hope for overperformance.
The volume situation is looking absolutely lovely for blast off. The Volume Profile Visible Range is definitely something that you can use to see whatever you want so I use it with the Average true range (set to log scale here) to help me find an absolute low in volatility to help set the chart. After setting the chart properly I can then look at what price action would be doing. The Value area is set to contain 68% of price action and the fact that price action has found support on top of the value area, by interpretation, suggests we confirmed the first up-leg in this bull market. These are going to be heady times for precious metal bugs as there is a good chance that this move will set up a multi-year consolidation pattern as we see happened between 2004 and 2006 and them massive continuation and with all the quantitative easing going on I would expect a quicker consolidation this time around.
Out of everything in this post what is below is the furthest reach but it is still exciting to see a potential inverted complex head and shoulders on silver futures divided by nasdaq futures. Hell, even if I am wrong and price action just returns to the neckline this is a great chance to buy silver against equities.
The linked idea from yesterday has much of the same analysis as here but on gold. The other linked idea shows where I used a lot of the same patterns I did in this idea to nail the bottom on SPXUSD during the great dip of 2020. I have gotten pretty good at identifying these lows and getting good entries, the problem for me now is holding them closer to investments as opposed to trades. If you follow me you will see I now use the volatility stop and fib channels to help me make sure levels are met, but that isn't applicable to this post yet.
AGQ - a Proshares Ultra ETF with potential to 'fly'ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ)
ProShares Ultra Silver seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the Bloomberg Silver SubindexSM.
This leveraged ProShares ETF seeks a return that is 2x the return of its underlying benchmark (target) for a single day, as measured from one NAV calculation to the next. Due to the compounding of daily returns, holding periods of greater than one day can result in returns that are significantly different than the target return and ProShares' returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period. These effects may be more pronounced in funds with larger or inverse multiples and in funds with volatile benchmarks.
AGQ H1: SWING: Accumulation / BUY DIPS 45% gains (SL/TP)(NEW)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
-TOP author on TradingView
-15+ years experience in markets
-Professional chart break downs
-Supply/Demand Zones
-TD9 counts / combo review
-Key S/R levels
-No junk on my charts
-Frequent updates
-Covering FX/crypto/US stocks
-24/7 uptime so constant updates
AGQ H1: SWING: Accumulation / BUY DIPS 45% gains (SL/TP)(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: AGQ 1hour/candle chart review
::: TP BULLS is 45% gains soon
::: BUY/HOLD SETUP
::: chart looks strong right now
::: strong bottom confirmed with 3 tests
::: expecting more gains after DIP
::: BULLS should focus on buying DIPS
::: September strong month SILVER / GOLD
::: recommended strategy: BUY DIPS
::: near 49/50 USD best reload BULLS
::: TP BULLS is 45%+ gains
::: if there's a mild dip just buy it
::: BUY/HOLD - swing trade settup
::: SWING trade setup do not expect
::: fast/miracle overnights gains here
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: N/A
::: N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment short-term: pullback/DIPS
::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS/REVERSAL