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AGRI

Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: H&S amid Surging Wheat Supply1. Introduction: Bearish Opportunity in Wheat amid Rising Supply With the U.S. Grain Stocks Wheat (USGSW) report showing a notable rise in wheat stock levels, a bearish scenario is unfolding for wheat futures. This increase in supply, which could drive prices downward, aligns with a technical setup showing potential for a bearish breakout. From a technical perspective, Wheat futures exhibit a Complex Head and Shoulders formation, signaling a possible breakdown as prices approach a critical support level. By combining the supply dynamics and technical formation, this article outlines a Bear Put Spread strategy, ideal for capitalizing on this bearish outlook with limited risk. 2. Fundamental Analysis: Rising Wheat Stock Levels The most recent USGSW report has recorded wheat stock levels breaking upward to 1.98 billion bushels, up from the previous level of 1.779 billion bushels. This shift indicates a higher supply of wheat available in the market, which, in the absence of proportional demand, typically should result in price pressure to the downside. Higher wheat stock levels often dampen demand sentiment, as markets anticipate reduced scarcity and increased availability. Such fundamentals offer a conducive backdrop for a bearish approach, supporting the downside breakout anticipated in the technical setup. 3. Technical Analysis: Complex Head and Shoulders Formation The technical landscape for Wheat futures supports the bearish case, with a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the chart. This pattern is characterized by multiple peaks (heads) flanked by smaller peaks (shoulders), indicating a potential reversal from recent highs. The critical neckline for this formation sits at 585'6. A break below this level would signal the likelihood of further downside movement. The target for this setup aligns with a UFO support zone at 552'4, which serves as an optimal price point to close the trade if the breakout confirms. 4. Trade Setup: Bear Put Spread on Wheat Futures (Ticker: ZWH2025) To capitalize on the bearish setup, a Bear Put Spread is employed. This strategy allows for limited downside risk while still offering attractive profit potential. Here are the specifics: o Contract Details for ZWH2025 (Wheat Futures): Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel (equivalent to $12.50 per tick) Point value of 1 future unit: $50 Point value of 1 option unit: $50 Expiration: December 27, 2024 Margin Requirement: While the exact margin depends on the broker, the requirement typically ranges between $1,500 and $2,000 per futures contract. The margin for a Bear Put Spread in Wheat futures options is limited to the debit paid (15.2 points *$50 = $760). o Options Strategy: Bear Put Spread Buy the 585 put option at 25.84 and Sell the 550 put option at 10.64, both expiring on December 27, 2024. The net debit paid is 25.84 – 10.64 = 15.2 points = $760 This spread provides a capped-risk opportunity for profiting from a downside move in Wheat futures. o Risk Management: While stop loss orders can be used, no stop loss is required given the limited-risk nature of the Bear Put Spread. The maximum potential loss is predefined by the cost of the spread. 5. Options Risk Profile Analysis The Bear Put Spread strategy involves buying a put option at a higher strike price (585) and selling a put option at a lower strike price (550). This configuration: Maximizes potential profit if Wheat futures drop to or below the 550 level by expiration. Caps maximum loss at the initial cost of the spread, regardless of how the underlying Wheat futures move. For this setup, the maximum potential profit is the difference between the strikes (585 - 550) minus the premium paid = 19.80 ($990). The maximum potential loss is the cost of the spread, making it a controlled-risk strategy suited to volatile or downward-trending markets. 6. Trade Execution Plan Entry: Initiate the Bear Put Spread as Wheat futures break below the 585'6 neckline, confirming the downside breakout. Target: Close the trade at 552'4, which aligns with a nearby UFO support zone, marking a logical exit point. 7. Risk Management Considerations Effective risk management is essential in any options strategy, and the Bear Put Spread inherently offers several risk control advantages: Limited Risk: By buying a put and selling a lower-strike put, the Bear Put Spread creates a defined risk position, capping potential losses at the initial premium paid for the spread. No Stop Loss Required: With maximum risk predetermined by the cost of the spread, there's no need for a stop loss, which could otherwise be triggered prematurely in a volatile market. Predefined Entry and Exit: This strategy's effectiveness hinges on precise entry (below the 585'6 neckline) and a clear target at 552'4. By maintaining these predefined parameters, the trade maximizes its alignment with both technical and fundamental setups. This trade setup offers a balanced approach, allowing for downside exposure with risk under control, making it well-suited for periods of volatility or substantial downward moves. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
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CBOT:ZWH2025Education
by traddictiv
2
Corn Prices Fizzle on Bumper HarvestCorn prices have fallen 14% since the start of 2023. The latest USDA report points to further downside. Corn prices are expected to fizzle with expectations of a bumper harvest combined with tepid demand. The USDA expects a record harvest of 15.27 billion bushels. The 2023/24 forecasts signal rising corn supply boosting ending stocks to their highest level since 2016/17. To hedge against falling corn price, this case study proposes a short position using CME Corn Futures (ZCN2023) expiring in July with an entry of 586.25 and a target of 433.25, which is hedged by a stop loss at 654.25, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25x. RECORD CORN HARVEST IS ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN SOARING ENDING STOCKS WASDE, short for World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, is a monthly report released by the US Department of Agriculture (“USDA”) that tracks the supply and demand for various agricultural commodities. In the latest WASDE report, released on May 12th, USDA expects a record 15.3 billion bushels of corn to be harvested in the US this year. The US is the largest producer of corn, representing 32% of total global production. Global corn production is expected to rise 6% YoY in 2023-24. While production is robust, demand and consumption are not expected to grow as fast. Global demand is expected to rise 3.7% with US consumption expected to climb 3.4%. This will result in an oversupply of corn with soaring inventory levels (i.e., Ending stocks). Ending stocks represent the supply of corn that is carried over to the next year. They are expected to rise 56% YoY to 2.2 billion bushels, the highest level since 2016-17. This leaves plenty of supply to accommodate any demand expansion. A bumper harvest in October is expected to cause an oversupply pushing corn prices lower. Despite the recent decline in corn prices, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. With ending stocks now expected to reach pre-pandemic levels, prices will likely follow. WEATHER MAY UPSET BUMPER HARVEST EXPECTATIONS The WASDE estimate assumes stable weather conditions as well as demand assumptions regarding China. Weather conditions play a huge role in final harvested yield. In the current year, drought conditions & intense heat in Argentina led to lower crop yields. With extreme weather events rising globally, it is possible that unfavorable weather may reduce the final US corn output. China is the largest consumer of corn. With hopes of strong economic recovery still simmering, demand in China may spike higher than USDA expectations. If supply fails or demand spikes, Corn prices may remain steady or even rise. Asset Managers and Options Markets are positioning for Corn price to plunge CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report shows that asset managers have more than doubled their net short positioning in Corn futures over the last twelve (12) weeks. Other reportable traders have reduced their net long positioning by almost 50% in the same period. Both indicate rising bearishness about corn prices. Similar sentiment is reflected in the options market. Although June and July contracts have Put/Call ratio of ~0.85 (more calls than puts), this is before the bumper harvest is expected (August-October). The September and December contracts which expire after the harvest have a Put/Call ratio of ~1.2. The futures forward curve, which is in backwardation, also shows expectations for prices to drop following the harvest. TRADE SETUP Each lot of CME Corn Futures provides exposure to 5,000 bushels of corn. A short position in CME Corn Futures expiring in July (ZCN2023) with an entry of 586.25 and a target of 433.25, which is hedged by a stop loss at 654.25, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25x. • Entry: 586.25 ¢/bushel • Target: 433.25 ¢/bushel • Stop: 654.25 ¢/bushel • Profit at Target: USD 7,650 • Loss at Stop: USD 3,400 • Reward-to-risk: 2.25x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by mintdotfinance
AGRI - Food will come back without a doubt it my mindExpect orange range to hold as support for this here. Volume spikes after coming in suggesting it could be getting ready. Would be great if it held the top range but definitely doesn't have to. Nice that it coincides with the gap up on 16th of May. Looking for a swing here and this will be a ticker I'm going to be keeping an eye on for the rest of the year. Gaps filled and not too many people talking about food plays. Similar to energy a while back. Wheat futures has been trying to push lower for the past month and a half but it just can't stay down there. Like oil, I think food gets it's second leg and AGRI was there main player in smallcap world. Remember no fundamentals have changed regarding the food situation around the world, which I've mentioned in previous posts. ZERO
NASDAQ:AGRILong
by SlapAsksLiftOffers
AGRI and all food related. Theme will be back and hard- 2021: Russia - 13.1% total wheat exports - 1.4% total corn export - 20.2% sunflower seed/safflower oil Ukraine - 11.9% total wheat exports - 11.4% total corn exports - 52.2% sunflower seed/safflower oil Ukraine struggling to export due to ports being no longer in their control and internally with workers joining the fight against Russia and there being a major shortage of labor. Geopolitical relations breakdown and deglobalisation through Russia relations with western powers (US/EU) constricting supply. Countries restricting exports due to lower yield and wanting to ensure they have enough for their own people. - Nothing is changing for the better from 1-3 months ago - Crazy weather and heat waves throughout the EU and the world during this summer is only going to compound this into the Winter. - I don't see one positive on the horizon that will ease the huge bid on all things food. Nothing. IF anything, its getting worse. Commodities like oil and wheat went though a huge push but I think its just the first leg. - At the end of the day I see nothing easing this whatsoever, therefore, UP ONLY TV. And its only a matter of time before this theme/sector gets gas and around here might be the time to start building positions - Outlined is a possible move out but at the same time it could swing below $2 again and them move. - Proper structure above red would be nice but I'm in this one waiting for the theme to hit. And when it does it will hit HARD. Low vol, curling bottom. Nice RR and you can try it a few times because I see no reason or way the upwards momentum on food doesn't get hit soon - Over 2.90 forget about it. It's going para - One risk is the huge reserves China has. They will definitely use that to build stronger relations in many emerging economies that will be at risk of famine and starvation. But that inflow will only slow down not nearly stop what is coming.
NASDAQ:AGRILong
by SlapAsksLiftOffers
AgriFORCE Growing Systems (USA: $AGRI) To Bloom Spring 2022! 🌷AgriFORCE Growing Systems, Ltd., an agriculture-focused technology company, focuses on the development and acquisition of crop production know-how and intellectual property augmented by advanced AgTech facilities and solutions in North America, Europe, and Asia. The company was formerly known as Canivate Growing Systems Ltd. and changed its name to AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd. in November 2019. AgriFORCE Growing Systems, Ltd. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
NASDAQ:AGRILong
by DEXWireNews
AGRI AgriFORCE Growing Systems Price TargetAGRI was listed on July 7th, at a public offering price of $5.00 per unit. Now the price is only 3.04usd!!! Shares Float is low, 12.05Mil AGRI has signed a letter of intent to acquire a leading AgTech European consultancy. AgTech consultancy had 2020 annual consulting audited revenues of over US$26 million and EBITDA of US$3 million . it expects revenues of US$28 million for 2021. purchase price of AgriFORCE is around US$29 million cash and stock. AGRI has now a mk cap of onlu 45.5mil. with this purchase and AgTech`s added fundamentals, and using also the fibonacci extension tool, my place target for AGRI short term is 11.20usd I`m looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:AGRILong
by TopgOptions
7
Wheat on the side while riding goldHey, I've been looking at grains a bit and I think wheat could be going down. On a pullback there is a good r to r. It is on a global downtrend and it convincingly broke to new lows on the lower TF. It sort of always goes down around this period Global trade & weather have a big impact I guess. Here you can see the past weather: www.timeanddate.com Here are averages: www.holiday-weather.com Chicago is in the averages. Most places are below, France has had a freezing summer brrr. The weather data is obviously run by climate deniers. The CME website: www.cmegroup.com The biggest producers of wheat are the same old same old... China USA India Europe South-South-America. And to a lesser extent pretty much everywhere except Africa. Some of the top biggest exporters are Russia Canada the USA France Argentina Ukraine... Argentina I think is the biggest net exporter there is in % of what they produce. India is self sufficient, China is barely I think. I could list all the net exporters but it's easy to remember. It's the white countries. Basically the most important weathers I think are NA & Europe. And China news/catastrophic crop ==> boom. Probably will trend down, hopefully without too much choppy pullbacks. Would be nice to look at something other than gold here and there.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by MrRenev
2
Bearish on grains & wheatBeen a while since I posted about agri. Price is around its average now, I see no reason for it to skyrocket. I don't think this little rally is a new trend, I see it as a correction. And the short term uptrend is probably just noise that kindly comes fill my shorts. Technically the price around 490-495 is a sweet spot to short this which makes it interesting. We let the amateurs trade everything to make sure they don't miss out. Market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent so use a stop loss. And also, it's not 100% sure the price is supposed to go down, might be wrong. So in any case, stop loss (or something else) is good.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by MrRenev