Get started

Agricultural Commodities

On a sugar high, owing to weak supplySugar prices have soared this year, up +21.6%1 owing to concerns about tight global supplies. Lower Indian supply coupled with weaker than expected output from Thailand, (at the second and third largest sugar exporters respectively) continue to provide a tailwind for sugar prices. While Brazil’s harvest in the coming months is expected to be strong, logistical hurdles owing to higher exports of soybean and corn could restrict supplies over the coming months thereby supporting sugar prices higher. Net speculative positioning on sugar is 139% above the 5-year average2. Over the past month, short positioning has declined 16% highlighting the improvement of sentiment on the sugar market. Weaker sugar supply from India India is one of the largest exporters of white sugar, but shipments are controlled by quotas. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) latest report indicate that Indian sugar production fell marginally to 28.2mt so far this season through 15 March3. ISMA cut its sugar production estimate for 2022/23 crop year to 33.5mn tons from 34.5mn tons on account of lower output and more use of sugarcane for biofuel. Sugarcane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing state, could end 45-60 days earlier than last year because heavy rainfall has reduced the availability of sugarcane. Sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to total a mere 12.8mn tons according to the chief of State’s sugar commission, nearly 1mn tons less than previously anticipated. Lower sugar output is raising concerns that the India government could restrict additional exports. More use of sugar diverted to India’s Biofuel program At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pursuing an aggressive biofuel program that will see more sugar cane diverted to make ethanol to help curb air pollution and reduce oil import bill. The biofuel program also lies in the interest of farmers by making use of excess local production and boosting their incomes. This season, the government plans to divert 5mn tons of sugar to make ethanol, up from 3.6mn tons a year earlier4. The eventual goal is to divert 6mn tons annually toward fuel production by 2025. Lower sugar production in Thailand remains price supportive for sugar Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar board confirmed that Thailand crushed 93.88mt of sugarcane in 2022/23, lower than the initial estimates for more than 100mt of cane5. As a result, the bumper crop expected in Thailand is also falling short, resulting in 2022/23 total sugar output in Thailand will be at around 11mn tons (versus the 12mn tons expected earlier in the season)5. Lower than expected output from Thailand combined with less supply from India remains price supportive for sugar. The front end of the sugar futures curve remains in backwardation yielding a positive roll yield of 2.9% reflecting tightness in the market for short term balances. Logistical bottlenecks could restrict supply from Brazil Looking ahead, progress of the sugar crop in the Centre- South region of Brazil remains a key headwind for sugar prices. Brazil sugar production is expected to be over 36.5mn tons in 2023/24, only slightly less than the all-time high of 38.4mn tons seen in the 2020/21 marketing year6. However, shipping Brazilian sugar could face delays in the Port of Santos as it competes with exports of other Brazilian grains such as corn and soybean. Road freight is also likely to face significant price increases. Santos terminals receive sugar and grains by trains and trucks. However, competition from transporting soybeans has been taking space away from sugar in train cars. Higher freight prices impact the margins of the mills. Likelihood of El Niño, if realised, remains price supportive for sugar With La Niña over, there is now a chance the Pacific Ocean surface could warm later this year and spark what is called El Niño. The US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the likelihood of an El Niño emerging between August and October to 74% from 61% a month ago. One common knock-on effect is higher precipitation volumes which would be positive for sugar prices over the medium term with fewer milling days and sugar production. El Niño could bring relief to drought parched areas of Argentina and southern US, but it could also lead to hotter and drier conditions in parts of Asia and Australia. Conclusion Restricted supply from India alongside lower supply from Thailand have helped sugar along its upward journey so far. Looking ahead, with the Argentinian soybean crop forecasts struggling in the face of the ongoing drought, we expect Brazil to do a lot of the heavy lifting by offsetting the shortfall in supply of both soybean and corn. This is why, logistical hurdles are likely to impede the supply of Brazilian sugar thereby supporting sugar prices higher over the medium term.
ICEUS:SB1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
SUGAR BULISH SCENARIOPrice boost and upward momentum on Raw Sugar, after India declared that a downward revision on its sugar cane crush. Being the second largest manufacturer of sugar in the world, this news had a positive effect on the price of the raw material. Both MACD and RSI are confirming the current trend. If it continues, the price might reach levels of 25.539 As a pivot point levels of 22.43 can be used, and if the price breaks below it, can test levels of 21.58 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
PEPPERSTONE:SUGARLong
by legacyFXofficial
Continuous CornContinuous Corn – Weekly: (Busy Chart) Currently in a sideways grinder going into an acres battle and Weather Market. Do not hesitate to Make decisions. The Red downtrending pitchfork controls the trend. Nearby resistance against the upper red line is set up with the 6.93 retracement target but volume by price resistance at 6.75-6.80. If the red line is broken for a short time look at further retracements that coincide with the lower blue line on the uptrending pitchfork. (7.24, 7.68, and 7.94) Theoretically the blue uptrend fork is still in play as long as the dashed gray uptrend line is not broken. Should we break below 6.23 then we most likely will see a test of the median line before we see 7.00 again. Median red line support in the 4.50 area targets Dec futures this Fall… **Many If/Then scenarios at Play** Volume by price acts as a magnet. Currently the 6.75 area is pulling it up and would be resistance. The next volume spike by price is the 5.50 area and then the 4.25 area. This will act as support/risk moving forward as contract months roll forward...
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
CC Cacao: Trade Commodity THIS EasterHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Are you looking to make a trade out of Easter weekend? Look no further than Cocoa futures, or chocolate. Cocoa is a soft commodity that is used to produce chocolate, and it is traded on several global commodity exchanges. One of the most significant exchanges for trading cocoa futures is the ICE Futures US (Intercontinental Exchange Futures U.S.). The exchange offers futures contracts for cocoa, which allows investors to speculate on the future price of cocoa beans. The cocoa futures contract on the ICE Futures US is traded under the symbol CC. Each CC contract represents 10 metric tons of cocoa beans, and the contract price is quoted in U.S. dollars per metric ton. The contract months for trading cocoa futures are March, May, July, September, and December. The price of cocoa can be influenced by several factors, including supply and demand, weather conditions, and political instability in cocoa-producing regions. For example, adverse weather conditions, such as drought or flooding, can reduce cocoa yields and increase prices. Similarly, political unrest or conflicts in cocoa-producing countries can disrupt supply chains and lead to higher prices. Easter Weekend is a time known well for Easter bunny egg hunts and other chocolate delights, meaning that demand increases for cocoa in the months leading up to Easter. Considering that from a chart analysis the price of Cocoa has already increased over the past few months, it is the ideal time to consider a short right after Easter. Easter has become a global celebration, and many cultures around the world have their unique ways of celebrating the holiday. For example, in Greece, the week leading up to Easter is called "Holy Week," and it is a time of fasting and religious observances. On Easter Sunday, families gather to celebrate with a feast of lamb and other traditional foods. In the United States, Easter is celebrated with the Easter Bunny, who brings baskets of candy and treats to children. The Easter Bunny has its origins in German folklore, where it was a symbol of fertility and new beginnings. The tradition was brought to America by German immigrants in the 1700s. In many Latin American countries, Easter is celebrated with parades and processions, where people carry statues of Jesus and the Virgin Mary through the streets. In Spain, there is a tradition called "Semana Santa," or "Holy Week," which involves elaborate processions and celebrations. In India, the Christian community celebrates Easter by attending church services and exchanging gifts and greetings with friends and family. The holiday is also an opportunity for people of different faiths to come together and celebrate the arrival of spring. In conclusion, Easter is a holiday that is celebrated around the world as a time of new beginnings, renewal, and the victory of life over death. Whether celebrated with bunnies and candy or religious observances and parades, Easter is a time for people of all cultures and faiths to come together and celebrate the beauty and wonder of spring. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by CryptoCheck-
34
Sugar Futures March April Challange Hello my friends! How is going your trading week? I hope that is doing well, anyways lets talk about this operation! Bulish: We are preparing for a trend continuation after the break of the resistance level that we are currently in, for entrys we gonna wait a strong candle, a pattern cadle or something like that. Bearish: Here for the bearish operation we are waiting a retest in our candle, rejecting the resitance level and then going back to support, we gonna also pay attetion if the price after the retest in the resistance will not go directly to the next suport zone, but is gonna restest at a fib level.
ICEUS:SB1!
by CherPetitPrince
2
Corn is at the critical supportAs shipping cost drops we see that corn , wheat , cotton are dropping fast. This is a disinflational signal OR a big recession signal. We will see what is going to happen after today's NFP and unemployment numbers. Corn is at a good support point. It may rise again if we see NFP is lower than expected or an increase in the unemployment numbers. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FX:CORNF
by WhaleGambit
Nutrien - Fertilizer Plays Into Growing Season, But a Coinflip2022's droughts and the Ukraine War put a lot of the world's food supply into question. Food commodity futures had a pretty bullish year. Since we're in mid-February and Western Hemisphere growing season is right upon us, fertilizer stocks are really worth paying attention to. Food scarcity is an even bigger issue with the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic smashing Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party over in Mainland China. The Party claims less than a hundred thousand people have died from COVID since this all began. But the Party is obviously lying about that, since China had 1.4 billion people and was the epicenter of the virus. America is on the other side of the ocean and lost 1.1+ million people. My point is that if China has really lost, say, 40 or 50 or 100 million people to the pandemic, the Party will need to import crops because there won't be all that many farmers around anymore to do the work of feeding the regime. This should be a bullish situation for food commodities and fertilizer. Nutrien is one of the market leaders, but this is a really difficult setup, a lot like flipping a coin, and here's why. 1. A monthly microgap at $64 that the algorithm spent a lot of effort keeping lows away from 2. Already a 40%+ retrace, but new lows haven't been set. 3. Daily bars show a perfect continuation of the downtrend line 4. Weekly bars show a sweep of the downtrend line 5. Earnings is Feb. 15 So, here's what I think at the moment. It's something of a gamble, but I think you can generate Alpha with puts on Nutrien before earnings. I say this, but realize that "generating Alpha" doesn't buy rice at the grocery store. It's like Sklansky Bucks in poker. Cool, you got +EV, but the donk took all your money. At least you can post a bad beat, I guess. In this case I think the play is not as unrealistic. Another fertilizer giant, CF Holdings, has earnings the same day: Feb. 15 postmarket, and started doing the bearish "orderblocking" thing two sessions ago These patterns before earnings are generally (emphasis on generally ) harbingers of a big gap down coming. The logic being that sell orders are being filled in anticipation of what smart money's big data analysis has already very accurately determined is about to happen Monday you get an FOMC member jawboning and Tuesday we get the dreaded CPI printout. It's a lot of volatility confluencing together in one big coagulate and if you guess right you win a cookie and if you guess wrong Wall Street guys will pay stripers with your money at 11:00 PM happy hour. In Nutrien's Q3 '22 financials the company told investors that they expected demand to be hot going into _fall_, and not spring, "Weather has been favorable in North America and we anticipate that the rapid pace of harvest will support strong fall ammonia demand and normal application rates of potash, phosphate and crop protection products." They also said, "We have lowered our global potash shipment forecast to between 60 and 62 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to the impact of higher-than-expected inventory and cautious buying in North America and Brazil during the second half of 2022." These two factors contrast against expectations from the company that expectations of higher 2023 commodity prices will lead to an increase in farm production, while noting that Ukraine will be down some 45% because of the war, notable because they were pretty much the world's wheat kings. Also noteworthy is Q3 was a big revenue/EPS miss for Nutrien. Estimates were 3.85 EPS and came in at $2.49. Revenue was $8.53B and came in at $7.91B. Q4 is a lot easier of a goalpost to hit, with estimates at $2.534 EPS and $7.392 Revenue. A miss here would (logically) definitely be a dumpster. So, ultimately, I think $110 Nutrien will come, and we may very well see this in the later part of '23, if not the early part of '24. But before then, it seems that the $60s are imminent. So, I'd rather do puts on CF than Nutrien into earnings as it stands, but staying flat and playing the consequences is a lot less risk. The two areas to watch for on Nutrien: 1. $63 to buy 2. $110 to sell It would be a big, bullish deal if Nutrien doesn't break this daily trendline and just dumps on earnings. $65 commons prices and 3-6+ month expiry call options should definitely be a fat return if you can ride it to the top.
NYSE:NTR
by LordWrymouth
2
It’s Corn!You know the “It’s Corn” song trending on TikTok? It brings a smile to our face every time we hear it. But if you look at Corn’s price chart and fundamental outlook, that’s a whole other story… Corn’s recent breakout of a symmetrical triangle towards the downside caught our attention. With the clear break and an ensuing retest, Corn is now trading right on previous support levels. We think this might just be a small reprieve in the downward direction it is headed. Not only that, when you zoom out to a longer timeframe, Corn has just broken its long-term trend support established since 2020. This combined with the symmetrical triangle break proves to provide a strong bearish case from here. Classical chart pattern analysis points the take-profit range from the triangle pattern, at roughly 292 points away. From the initial point of breakout, 292 points away takes us back to the 360 level which was the average price seen from 2014 to 2020, back to pre-covid and pre-Russian/Ukraine conflict levels. Additionally, in a or few previous analyses we emphasized how many of the commodities have started to return to ‘normality’ with prices moving back to pre-war levels. We have already seen Wheat and Soybean retracing most of the War rally as prices tumbled, therefore it’s not hard to see Corn do the same soon. Other supporting fundamental factors include the falling Ethanol prices and in turn, lower usage of corn for Ethanol, resulting in overall supply to increase. Fertilizer prices have also fallen from all-time highs, with continued downward momentum. Lower fertilizer cost means better margins for the farmers and potentially higher usage of fertilizers in planting, which may result in better crop yield. Both factors work to lower corn price through more competitive pricing from the farmers and increased supply. Combined, we think the fundamental and technical chart set-up provides a convincing case for Corn to fall lower. We set our stops above the triangle apex and at the previous level of resistance, 688, and our initial take-profit levels at 565 followed by 455, giving us a risk reward of roughly 1.46 and 3.66 from the current level of 637.6. Each 0.0025 point increment in CME Corn Futures is equal to 12.5 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by inspirante
1
☕️Coffee futures (KC): third wave bull market.●● Preferred count ● Coffee Cash (KC.C), 🕐TF: 30D Fig.1 In Fig. 1 , the wave count from 02/07/2022 . At the moment, the market is in the initial stage of the development of the primary wave ③ . The alternative scenario is the same — the continuation of the formation of the wave e of (IV) , as it is marked in black . ______________________________________________ ● Coffee C®️ Futures (KC1!), 🕐TF: 6h Fig.2 The wave ① formed the shape of an expanding diagonal . There is another infrequent pattern on the chart — an expanding triangle at the position of the wave (X) of ② . Growth is expected to continue. ______________________________________________ 📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by TradeWaves-EWA
1