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Agricultural Commodities

Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 671.75 Pivot: 660.00 Support: 636.00 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 636.00, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 660.00 where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Coffee price keeps the negativity – AnalysisCoffee price provided more negative closings by consolidating below 178.00 resistance, to start reacting to the major indicators by declining towards 159.40, expecting to continue forming negative crawl and attempt to touch 154.00, while breaking this obstacle will extend trades towards 147.10 to face the historical support that appears on the chart, assuring the importance of monitoring its behavior to manage to detect the next main trend.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by eltonmorningstar
ZO1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZO1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 351.000, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 362.000, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 327.500, where the previous swing low is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZO1!Short
by VantageMarkets
ZC1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell stop entry at 648.50, to catch the bearish momentum. Stop loss will be placed at 664.00, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 635.00, where the previous swing low is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by VantageMarkets
COTTON // rangebound martketThe market made a nice impulse up on the daily, and the correction of this long impulse brought the market into a range. A break from this range may take the price higher into correction or deeper in the direction of the primary trend, but I would take profit on the short trades at the start of the daily corrective impulse, and wait for a countertrend to target the fibo target zones and the weekly north breakout. Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT! Remember that trading is a business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
ICEUS:CT1!
by TheMarketFlow
ZW1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 740.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 758.00, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and recent high are. Take profit will be at 723.50, where the previous swing low is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by VantageMarkets
Agricultural Commodities - When the Big Elephant Left the RoomCBOT: CBOT:ZW1! , CBOT:ZS1! , CBOT:ZC1! , CME:HE1! This is the second report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”. US inflation began to pick up in March 2021 and rose rapidly throughout the year. Federal Reserve officials told Americans not to worry. It was due to supply chain issues and comparisons to low baseline numbers in 2020 when economies were shut down. After CPI rose to 7.0% in December, the Fed voted to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% on January 26th, 2022. Inflation would be “transitory”. Just ignore the big elephant in the room and it would go away. That’s the prevailing thinking at the time. Then a military conflict took place in the former Soviet bloc. The war shock and ensuing impact from embargo of Russian products pushed the prices of commodities, from gold, nickel, crude oil, natural gas, to winter wheat and many others to record high. On March 16th, the Fed raised rate by 25 basis points with a change of heart. This baby step turned into the most intense battle against inflation with seven consecutive rate hikes. “Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” and “High Rate, Low Price” became the dominant theme of the global commodities market. Many commodities gave up early gains and priced at or below prewar levels. US headline inflation rate peaked at 9.1% in June and Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) topped in September. They have come down ever since. 2022 was all about geopolitical crises and central bank actions. Along with investor sentiment, they dominated market trends. Economic fundamentals have been left largely unnoticed. Outlook for 2023 In the new year, these macro factors would likely stay in the back burners. When the big elephant left the room, fundamentals in each market would once again drive commodities prices. Commodities markets might be less volatile compared to last year. One notable exception is China. The government ended its strict Zero-Covid policies on December 7th. From January 8th, Chinese tourists would be hitting popular travel destinations around the world, after nearly three-year absence. Normalization of daily life and business activity will not only boost China’s economy, but also lend needed support to the global economy which many believe to be on the verge of a recession. However, surges in Covid cases raise the risk of new and more deadly virus. By one estimate, up to one billion people are already Covid-positive in China. This is one-eighth of the world population! For a thorough analysis of China’s re-opening and its impact, please check out my previous report, The Rise and Fall of Chinese Yuan. This concludes a high-level overview before we move to discuss what all these mean for agricultural commodities in 2023. Fundamental Supply and Demand Built on Higher Baseline While the big elephant has left, it still casts a shadow in the room. Inflation is sticky. Rate increases have lasting impacts long after the hikes are over. This is evident in food costs. Inflation pushed the cost of producing, processing, distributing, and selling agricultural products to a high level. November CPI for food items was 10.6%, much higher than the headline CPI of 7.1%. The cost for food at home grew 12% annually, indicating a rapid rise in grocery prices. There are no rate cuts nor deflation in sight. This means that food costs will continue to go up, although at a slower pace. Wheat, corn, and soybean have different supply and demand fundamentals. But CBOT futures price charts show similar patterns for all three in the past three years. As I pointed out earlier, inflation, geopolitical crisis and Fed rate hikes took turns driving commodities markets across the board. Economic fundamentals got set aside. Volatility is a friend for options traders. Last June, I introduced a Long Strangle strategy on CBOT Wheat (ZC). At the time, wheat price was swung widely by actions in the battlefield. A surprise agreement that allowed Ukrainian grain cargoes to pass the Russia-control Black Sea sent price sharply down, making our put options 400% more valuable. This year, we will focus on more subtle changes in traditional supply and demand factors, such as planted acreage, weather, yield, and export. Spread Trade Opportunities Inflation and rate hikes hit different parts of the agricultural markets differently. For the same commodities, the spread between farm-level price and retail grocery price has become wider due to cost increase. The commodities used as input in food product and those for output respond to different fundamentals. When inflation and interest rate are moving fast, the traditional price relationship may be temporally dislocated, opening opportunities for spread trades. Take the example of the Lean Hog market: Last August, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report showed that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averaged $128/cwt. Hog Crush Margin represents production profit by hog farmers. It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM). On August 2nd, I presented the trade idea “Short the Hog Margin If You Expect Lower Pork Price”. It’s a profitable trade. On January 6th, USDA benchmark carcass is quoted at $74, a whopping 42% decline in five months. For this spread trade, I used a Hog Feeding Spread to replicate the economic hog crush margin with CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). The size of relevant futures contracts: HE, 40000 lbs.; ZC, 5000 bushels; and ZM, 100 short tons. A typical hog feeding spread is 7:3:1, which may be expressed as: Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM As I expect hog margin to shrink, I short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal. I will continue to monitor the agricultural commodities space in the new year. Whenever spreads or other trade opportunities arise, I will present the new ideas on TradingView. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
11
Coffee Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Coffee Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 174.35 Pivot: 163.80 Support: 154.30 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 154.30, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 163.80 where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 671.75 Pivot: 660.00 Support: 636.00 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 636.00, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 660.00 where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
CC1! Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a buy entry at 2606, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 2572, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and recent low are. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by VantageMarkets
ZC1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a possible sell entry at 659.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line and the liquidity hotspots are located. Stop loss will be at 671.75, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 638.25, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by VantageMarkets
ZC1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 659.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 671.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 635.00, where the previous swing low is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by VantageMarkets
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 2671 Pivot: 2570 Support: 2470 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2671, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may break the pivot at 2570, where the 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support level at 2470, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 698.50 Pivot: 651.25 Support: 638.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 698.50, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 651.25 where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and recent low are located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
ZC1! Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 671.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 659.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 698.25, where the previous swing highs are located. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by VantageMarkets
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 700.00 Pivot: 651.25 Support: 638.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 700.00, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 651.25 where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and recent low are located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 2671 Pivot: 2570 Support: 2470 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2671, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may break the pivot at 2570, where the 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support level at 2470, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 671.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 659.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 698.25, where the previous swing highs are located. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by VantageMarkets