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Agricultural Commodities

SOYBEANS - Are We Close to a Major Bottom? Cycles Say YES.Here is what I am currently watching for SOYBEANS. -We need to be aware that there is a major bullish divergence setup (not trigger) developing on the quarterly & monthly charts. We need to pay close attention to this setup, because if triggered/confirmed, it implies a massive move up for Soybeans would be on the horizon. -Interestingly, the Weekly chart has confirmed bullish divergence. The first target (1090) has not yet been hit, but in my opinion, it looks probable that Soybeans will hit that target (and possibly go as high as the second target (1179). This implies that I believe Soybeans is likely to rally at least 5% in the near future, and possibly rally as much as 10% from current price levels. -I will be aggressive with taking profits on any short setups that present, due to the bullish weekly divergence that has triggered. -Utilizing the Weekly MAC & Valuation methods, I note that this market is in an area where we can look for H6/Daily short trades. As mentioned in previous paragraph, I will utilize more aggressive targets. -The cycles for Soybeans...wow, they are quite something. Decennial cycle suggests significant low being put in, APZ's suggest major low around October 4th, major 5 year cyclical low RIGHT NOW. Other temporary and permanent blended cycles suggest a major low right now. Composite of the 3 most similar years of price action also suggest a major low could happen soon, with a major rally to March 2025. -A combination of the cycles and the major timeframe bullish divergences have me leaning somewhat towards calling a possible major bottom in the Soybeans market. I would prefer to see commercials COT positioning support this idea, which makes me think maybe we get another nice selloff into the August lows before the real bottom is in. But time will tell.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tradius_Trades
WHEAT, start planting now for a MASSIVE HARVEST...WHEAT: BOUNTIFUL HARVEST SOON... if you seed at the current price range. KEY NOTES: WEEKLY DESCENDING TRENDLINE BREAKOUT. Monthly shifting price lines. HUGE HINT! Weekly histogram higher lows. MONTHLY HISTOGRAM SHIFT -- CLOSING UP TO BREAK SOON. SEEDED LONG (long term) 628.0 TAYOR. Safeguard capital always. ----------------- RELATED NEWS: WSJ ARTICLE: Severe Drought Stunts Great Plains Wheat Crops Harvest in nation’s breadbasket forecast to be the worst in 60-plus years June 17, 2023 10:09 am ET
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATLong
by JSAL
1
The Enigma of Robusta: Why is Coffee's Unsung Hero So Valuable?Robusta coffee, a resilient and versatile bean, has played a pivotal role in the global coffee market. Despite its often overlooked status, Robusta has experienced a significant surge in value in recent years. This article explores the factors driving the rising prices of Robusta coffee, including increased demand, supply chain disruptions, and climate change. By understanding the challenges and opportunities facing Robusta, we can better appreciate its enduring significance in the global coffee industry. Introduction The global coffee market has witnessed a steady rise in demand, leading to a corresponding increase in prices for both Arabica and Robusta beans. While Arabica often takes center stage, Robusta, a less celebrated but equally essential bean, has also experienced a notable appreciation in value. This article delves into the reasons behind Robusta's ascent, examining the factors that have contributed to its growing prominence. Factors Driving Robusta Coffee Prices Several key factors have converged to push Robusta coffee prices upward: Increased Demand: The global appetite for coffee has expanded significantly, particularly in emerging markets. This rising demand, coupled with a limited supply, has created upward pressure on prices. Supply Chain Disruptions: Weather-related challenges, geopolitical tensions, and logistical constraints have disrupted supply chains, leading to shortages and higher costs. Climate Change: Climate change has exacerbated weather-related events, such as droughts and floods, impacting coffee production and driving up prices. Shifting Cultivation Patterns: Some farmers have shifted their focus to more profitable crops, reducing the overall supply of Robusta coffee. The Enduring Value of Robusta Despite the challenges it faces, Robusta Coffee continues to hold significant value. Its resilience, versatility, and unique flavor profile make it a sought-after commodity. As a cornerstone of the global coffee market, Robusta plays a crucial role in meeting consumer demand and supporting the livelihoods of millions of farmers. Conclusion The rising prices of Robusta coffee can be attributed to a combination of factors, including increased demand, supply chain disruptions, and climate change. While the future of coffee production faces challenges, Robusta's enduring value and adaptability position it as a resilient force in the global coffee market. By understanding the factors driving price increases and exploring innovative solutions, we can ensure the continued sustainability and enjoyment of this beloved beverage.
ICEEUR:RC1!Long
by signalmastermind
Is Your Summer BBQ in Jeopardy?The seemingly innocuous drought in Brazil could have far-reaching consequences for global food supply chains. As the world's largest soybean exporter, Brazil's weather patterns significantly influence the availability and affordability of various food products. The delayed planting of soybean crops due to dry conditions in Brazil is raising concerns about potential shortages and price hikes. This could have a ripple effect on the production of meat, poultry, and other food items that rely on soybeans as a key ingredient. Beyond the immediate impact on soybean prices, the drought could also have broader implications: Increased Food Costs: The shortage of soybeans could lead to higher prices for animal feed, ultimately affecting the cost of meat and poultry. Disruptions in Food Processing: Industries that rely heavily on soybeans, such as food processing and biofuel production, may face disruptions due to limited supply. Global Economic Impacts: The drought could have economic consequences beyond the food sector, affecting trade, transportation, and employment in related industries. The question now is: How will the global food system adapt to this challenge? As the world grapples with the implications of Brazil's drought, it is crucial to explore sustainable solutions and strategies to mitigate the potential impacts on food security and economic stability.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by signalmastermind
Can Corn Conquer Climate Change?The global food system is under siege from the escalating climate crisis, and corn, a pivotal commodity, is facing a particularly formidable challenge. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and the increased prevalence of pests and diseases are all conspiring to undermine corn production. This article delves into the intricate relationship between corn and climate change, examining the potential consequences for food security, economic stability, and social well-being. Beyond the immediate threats posed by climate change, the impacts on corn production can have far-reaching consequences. Reduced yields can lead to price volatility, making it difficult for low-income households to afford basic food staples. This can contribute to food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly in vulnerable populations. Moreover, corn production is a major source of income for many farmers, especially in developing countries. Climate change-induced crop failures can have devastating consequences for rural livelihoods and economic stability. However, the challenges are not insurmountable. By adopting sustainable agricultural practices, investing in climate-resilient crop varieties, and fostering global cooperation, we can safeguard the future of corn and ensure a more sustainable and equitable food system for generations to come. Climate-smart agriculture, which includes practices like crop rotation, cover cropping, and precision agriculture, can improve soil health, reduce water use, and enhance resilience to climate change. Additionally, breeding for resilience can develop corn varieties that are more tolerant to heat, drought, and pests. Furthermore, promoting crop diversification can help reduce the risk of crop failures and ensure food security even in the face of climate-related challenges. Governments can also play a crucial role in supporting farmers by providing financial assistance, access to climate information, and investments in agricultural research and development. In conclusion, the future of corn is inextricably linked to our ability to adapt to a changing climate. By embracing sustainable practices, investing in innovation, and fostering global cooperation, we can ensure that corn continues to play a vital role in feeding the world. It's a call to action, a challenge to rethink our approach to agriculture, and a reminder that the future of food is in our hands.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by signalmastermind
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Cotton - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Cotton (CT) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CT if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold Extreme Positioning: Commercials around max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs around max short of last 3 years - bullish. OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" of positioning happening between commercials and large specs = bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: UO & Momentum (not yet confirmed) Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
ICEUS:CTZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
3
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Soybeans - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Soybeans (ZS) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in ZS if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. I note that I am already long as this market has been giving a buy signal for a few weeks. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials hovering around max long of last 3 years - bullish. OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" in net positioning between commercials and large specs - bullish. Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the increase in OI". When the OI increase is caused by Commercials adding to longs, it is bullish. True Seasonal: Major seasonal low end of September and up to February. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R, UO, Stochastic & Confirmed Momentum Shift. Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
CBOT:ZSX2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Is This the Beginning of a Global Food Crisis?Wheat, a cornerstone of global food security, is facing unprecedented challenges. Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and geopolitical tensions are converging to create a perfect storm for wheat production. The result? A significant wheat rally that could have far-reaching implications. Climate Change's Impact: As the planet warms, wheat-growing regions are becoming increasingly vulnerable. Extreme heat and unpredictable weather patterns are disrupting harvests and reducing yields. This is especially pronounced in Europe, where persistent rainfall and heatwaves have devastated crops. Global Supply Chain Disruptions: The war in Ukraine, coupled with export restrictions and transportation challenges, has further strained global wheat supplies. This has led to a surge in demand for wheat from other regions, exacerbating the price increase. The Looming Food Security Threat: The rising cost of wheat, a key ingredient in many staple foods, poses a significant threat to food security, particularly in developing countries. As prices continue to climb, access to affordable food becomes increasingly difficult for millions. The Road Ahead: The future of wheat production and global food security is uncertain. The world must adapt to the changing climate, invest in sustainable agricultural practices, and develop strategies to mitigate the risks posed by geopolitical tensions. The stakes are high, and the time for action is now.
ICEEUR:WHT1!Long
by signalmastermind
Upside Ahead for Cotton - COT Strategy BuyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Cotton (CT) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CT if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials more long than they've been in 3 years = bullish. OI Analysis: We are seeing a "Bubble Up" between Commercials & Large Specs. This is a sign of a significant bottom being formed. Valuation: Undervalued VS Gold COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R Buy Signal Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
ICEUS:CTZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Upside Ahead for Soybeans - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Long Soybeans (ZS) I got long Soybeans last week. This week we see the COT strategy still giving us signals to be on alert for long trades in ZS if we get bullish signals on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials close to the longest they have been in the last 3 years. Valuation: Undervalued VS Gold ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed yet) Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Buy Signals Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
CBOT:ZSX2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
A Trade as Simple as "Shooting Ducks in A Barrel" Soybean ShortIf you follow my channel, you know I love to trade a strategy that I like to call "Ducks in a Barrel". Its a strategy that is as easy as shooting ducks in a barrel. We have a setup forming on the Daily timeframe for the Soybeans market. Step 1: Identify trend (I like to see the 52 & 39 period SMA's sloping strongly and pulling away from each other). In the case of Soybeans, we see a strong bearish trend. Step 2: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERVALUED VS GOLD & US TREASURIES. We see with Soybeans, we are now overvalued on the Daily timeframe vs gold & treasuries. Assets that are overvalued in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL. Step 3: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERBOUGHT. We see on the Daily stochastic that Soybeans are overbought. Assets that are overbought in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL. Step 4: In a down trending market, we want to see advisor SENTIMENT become BULLISH. The advisors and general public are usually wrong, so when they become overly bullish in a strong down trend, we want to sell into that bullish sentiment. Step 5: We can also look at accumulation/distribution indicators and momentum for further confirmation of our idea. But realistically, we just need to see 2 or more of the above indicators confluent with each other to have a setup market. Step 6: For the Daily timeframe, I utilize the H4 chart for my entry. The safest entry is to wait for 2 full range days to form beneath the 18 period SMA, and from there market enter when the lowest low of these 2 candles is hit. There are other entry techniques to get into the market earlier, but they come with greater risk. NOTE: If you follow my channel, you will know that I am long Soybeans based on my COT strategy. Commercials are close to the max long positioning of the last 3 years (bullish), OI grinding up on the multi-month down move caused by CM's (bullish), paunch forming (bullish), bearish weekly sentiment (bullish), undervalued on weekly vs gold and treasuries (bullish), major cyclical lows (bullish). I have different accounts for different strategies, as sometimes we get conflicting signals. If you have any questions about these "ducks in a barrel" trade setups, feel free to give me a message. As always, I wish you good luck & good trading.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Tradius_Trades
15
SOYBEANS - COT Based Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER. This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. There is real risk involved with trading any market. I am looking for longs in the Soybean market this week. Here is why. -Commercials are positioned very long relative to their overall positioning over the last 6 months, which is bullish. -Commercials are approaching the max long positioning of the last 3 years, which is bullish. Admittedly, I'd like to see them at a bit more of an extreme. But they are relatively very long right now, which is a valid reason to be bullish. -While price has declined for weeks, OI has increased. When OI is increasing, we must ask the question "who is causing the OI increase"? If OI is being increased by commercials, this is bullish. -Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is bullish. -Undervalued vs gold and bonds. -ADX is forming the "paunch" as the ADX rises over 40. Paunch will confirm when ADX "rolls over". The paunch is relatively rare, but when it occurs, we need to pay attention as a market reversal of some significance is near. -Small specs are overall quite short (although similarly to the commercial positioning, I'd like to see them at more of an extreme). -Insider accumulation, %$ and Ultimate oscilator all giving buy signals. -Some major cyclical signs suggesting Soybeans are at a major cyclical low. For these reasons, I'm long Soybeans and will look to get more long with future entry triggers. If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a message. Good luck, and good trading.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tradius_Trades
2
Can We Unravel the Mysteries of Wheat Market Stability?In an era of interconnectedness and unprecedented challenges, the global wheat market stands as a critical linchpin of food security. Its intricate interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors has profound implications for the world's ability to feed itself. The wheat market, a cornerstone of global agriculture, is subject to numerous forces that can disrupt its equilibrium. Climate change, with its increasing frequency of extreme weather events, poses a significant threat to wheat production. Droughts, floods, and heatwaves can devastate crops, leading to shortages and price volatility. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape is fraught with tensions that can impact wheat trade. Conflicts, sanctions, and trade disputes can disrupt supply chains, limiting access to essential food commodities. Moreover, the growing global population, coupled with changing dietary habits, is placing increasing pressure on wheat production. As incomes rise, consumers are demanding more diverse and protein-rich diets, which can drive up demand for wheat-based products. This increased demand, combined with the challenges posed by climate change and geopolitical instability, creates a perfect storm of uncertainty for the wheat market. The future of wheat, and by extension, the global food system, hangs in the balance. Can we unravel the enigma of wheat market stability, or will the challenges posed by this vital commodity prove insurmountable? The answer to this question will determine the extent to which we can ensure food security for generations to come.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by signalmastermind
2
Sugar heading for multi-year lowsIs easy to see that the $20 zone is key for sugar, the price broke below it in April and it has not been able to come back above The price has dropped more than 36% since it peaked in November of 2023 and this week just made a new 52-week low The next key level is at $17.50, the daily chart already gave a sell or short signal A follow through below this level could lead to a good gain in the short side Also, could lower sugar prices lead to higher oil prices? Remember that oil prices tends to be inversely correlated with the price of sugar, primarily due to its impact on ethanol production and the competing use of sugarcane for fuel versus food.
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by dpuleo19
Soy Bean Cash CFD Bullish Side Money Heist PlanHola ola Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, This is our master plan to Heist SOY BEAN Cash CFD Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
VANTAGE:SOYBEANLong
by Thief_Trader
COCA SHORT 11/08/24Hello everyone, Hope you got to spend a nice weekend, let's get back to work. First of all the RSI is getting dangerously high, meaning a very likely fall in the few days. Further than the technicals, there's concrete evidence among our expertise information supplier that tomorrow is going to be a spectacular drawdown. We drew a red line in order to show you the point where you should put your SL, but it is obvious that tomorrow is the vengeance of our failure of Friday (which we are really sorry for btw) Tomorrow is all in short, see you after for a debrief.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOAShort
by edl75
2