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Agricultural Commodities

Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 691.0 Pivot: 661.40 Support: 675.60 Preferred Case: The H4 price is in a downward trend. Price breached and closed below the first resistance level at 691.00. Price could potentially reverse back down to the pivot line and 20% retracement level at 661.40. Alternative scenario: If the bullish momentum continues, price will move to 688.0, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Forecast SUGAR#FOOD #SUGAR Cheap sugar is only in our dreams. At the moment, the accumulation phase is nearing its end. The technical figure "flag" begins to be traced, the exit of the market from which, according to the canon, should take place upwards. The first target will be the resistance level ~24. Its breakdown will send futures with a high degree of probability to cross the global level at 39, which is approximately x2 from current prices. This is possible if the world system plunges into hyperinflation, the signal for which is already given by the actions of central banks (yesterday's post on the Bank of England). Under such a scenario, it would be wise to buy food and essentials at current prices.
PEPPERSTONE:SUGARLong
by airstels
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 691.0 Pivot: 661.40 Support: 675.60 Preferred Case: The overall price on the H4 is bullish. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market is bullish. Price attempted but failed to breach the first resistance level at 691.00. Price responded with a massive rejection wick. Price could potentially reverse back down to the first support level at 675.6, which also happens to be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line. Alternative scenario: If bullish momentum continues, expect price to move towards 705.6, which contains the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Type: Bullish Momentum Resistance: 6.900 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 6.310 Preferred Case: On the H4, the overall price is bearish. In addition, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bear market. Price attempted but failed to break through the Pivot at 667.500 overnight. Price could potentially reverse up to the first resistance level at 6.900, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Alternative scenario: If bearish momentum persists, expect price to continue falling towards the first support level at 6.310, where the larger 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Fundamentals: There is no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Type: Bullish Momentum Resistance: 680.00 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 661.75 Preferred Case: On the H4, the overall price is bearish. In addition, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bear market. Price has broken through the Pivot at 667.4, which corresponds to the previous swing low. Price also rebounded from the first support and rose above the first pivot. Price may maintain its short-term bullish momentum and move towards the first resistance level at 680.0, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Alternative scenario: The price could reverse and head back down to the first support level at 661.75, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion is located. Fundamsentals: There is no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Wednesday notes - SPX Wheat Gold DXY DAX Bonds etc.Some pre market commentary, SPX - expecting a bear trap after open, then higher. Wheat may be affected by the hurricane in Florida, Bonds hit an important fib extension, Gold looks promising if it can get over 1675 resistance, DXY also looks like it may pullback - BTC could still move to lower 18000 area before a move up (would align with one more low in equities) but it doesn't have to go down that far. Dax has broken monthly trendline, expect a retest over the coming weeks. I forgot oil - looks good for a strong bounce here, pullbacks are likely bought. OK good luck!
XETR:DAXLong
by the_sunship
2
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 6.900 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 6.310 Preferred Case: Overall price is bearish on the H4. To add on confluence, the price is also below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Price has broken through the 1st resistance at 6.900 where the 161.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension lines are. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the 1st support at 6.310 where the larger 78.6% Fibonacci line lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may go back up through the 1st resistance and head towards the pivot at 7.630 Fundamentals: No major news
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 679.25 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 660.00 Preferred Case: Overall price is bearish on the H4 with a retail double top formed. Price is also below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Price has broken through and closed the pivot at 667.4 where the previous swing low is. Expecting price to continue this bearish momentum and head towards the 1st support at 660.0 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may reflect off the pivot back up towards the 1st resistance Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 679.25 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 660.00 Preferred Case: Overall price is bearish on the H4 with a retail double top formed. Price has broken through the 1st resistance at 679.25 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Price could possibly retrace back up towards 677.6 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and 1st resistance lie before heading down, breaking the pivot at 667.5 and then moving towards 1st support at 660.00 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may continue heading down towards the pivot before bouncing back up towards the 1st resistance. Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Supply bull vs. demand bear clouds cotton's outlookCotton prices have been very volatile in 2022. The three-month implied volatility on cotton is currently at 43.7% fast approaching the levels last seen in 2011. A pickup in volatility has historically been an important indicator of a change in trend. Back in 2011, Texas (the biggest growing cotton state in the US) witnessed the driest year on record. The reason for the drought was the weather anomaly La Nina. The La Nina results in an abnormal cooling of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is linked to severe droughts in the southwestern parts of the US. In the wake of the drought, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its estimate of 2011/12 cotton production by 1mn bales to 17mn bales. Cotton prices reached a record 215.151 USD/lbs in response. Drought plaguing US’s biggest cotton growing state We are seeing history repeat itself with a persistent drought in Texas this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees a 72% chance of La Nina between November and January raising the odds for a rare third-straight La Nina to form across the Pacific. USDA has slashed its supply projections for global cotton ending stocks by 1.5mn bales in 2022/23. Production is lowered nearly 3.1mn bales whilst consumption is reduced by 800,000 bales. US producers increased their cotton acreage by 11% this season to 5.05m hectares. But, with the drought becoming more severe over the last couple of months, the USDA expects that the harvested area won’t exceed 2.89m ha. The abandonment of 43%, if confirmed, will be by far the highest since USDA records began in 1960. Owing to historically high abandonment in the US Southwest region, US production estimates are forecast to reach their lowest level since 2009/10. The US is the world’s largest exporter of cotton, having more than 27% share of the world export market. That implies that the fall in US production will dampen the world trade surplus, putting pressure on declining inventories. Harsh climate conditions amongst key cotton producers threaten supply Unpredictable weather patterns have been challenging the cotton crop outlook in other key producer countries as well. Drought is hitting China’s cotton crop in the Xinjiang province, which grows majority of the country’s crop. In China, ending stocks are estimated at 36.2 million bales in 2022/23, the lowest in 4 years2. Australia, Brazil, and Pakistan experienced untimely rains that have reduced a large share of their grades. The World’s stocks to use ratio at 68.25% is at its lowest in five years highlighting the constraints on supply with respect to demand. Cotton’s demand outlook set to weaken amidst slowing global economy Cotton consumption is likely to weaken amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Europe is on the brink of a recession and the European consumer will be exposed to soaring energy costs. Meanwhile the US consumer’s spending pattern is shifting away from goods to services. In China, the economic headwinds are multifaceted – from a weaking property market, intermittent covid lockdowns alongside supply shortages to strategically imported goods. The outlook for apparel and textile consumption looks tricky. Consumption in 2022/23 is projected lower than a month ago in the US, Pakistan, Vietnam, Turkey, and Bangladesh3. Conclusion Supporting prices higher has been the 25.8%4 rise in speculative positioning over the past month. A 12% unwind in short positioning alongside a 10% build up in long positioning underscores the improvement in sentiment towards the cotton markets. The front end of the cotton futures curve remains in backwardation with a positive roll yield of 3.2% versus 8.5% a month back. Evidently the supply situation remains tight however amidst a tougher macroeconomic environment cotton prices are likely to walk a tight rope. In order for cotton prices to stage a sustained move higher we will need to see an improvement in demand. Sources 1 Source: Bloomberg as of 4 March 2011 2 Cotton Outlook August 2022, Economic Research Service 3 United States Department of Agriculture 4 Source: CFTC, from 19 July 2022 to 16 August 2022 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ICEUS:CT1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Playing with sugarLet's start with observing 2W chart, here we can see that: 1) price has been grinding across the trendline, which acted as resistance 2) following rejection at the resistance, we had a move down to ~0.174 range which formed a strong support 3) If the week closes at 0.18335 or higher, we have an official breakout from this sub-structure and impulse should take it to the former high, above 0.2. __________________________________ 2D chart clearly demonstrates how the price has just broken through the resistance line. The next logical target is indeed the range between 0.2 and 0.22. _________________________________ Let's zoom out further, monthly chart. Observing this chart, I would presume that there will be a battle to take out resistance over 0.2, but after that is broken we will likely see a significant run toward old highs, between 0.31 and 0.35.
OANDA:SUGARUSDLong
by Owcheew8
1
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 698.50 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: Price has reflected off the first support level at 698.50 on the H4 and appears to be descending again to test it. watch for the price to cross the first support level and go toward the pivot at 667.50, which is where the previous swing low lies. The chart appears to be constructing a double top with equal highs along the first resistance, which adds another confluence to this bias. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may bounce off the first support and continue moving back up toward the first resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv