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Agricultural Commodities

the FOMC idea - SPX, BONDS, WHEAT, GOLD, DXY, BTCFomc is at 2pm today. Many are expecting a rally, and that could be - but be careful of a pump and dump. Another option is it just dumps to 3700 quickly which for me would be a buy zome. Bonds may be close to a turn and Powell may signal something dovish to that market today, Wheat looks good and now we are expecting pullbacks to be bought, Gold also looks good for a rally and DXY looks ready to pullback soon. BTC also holding support at that 19k level. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
6
WHEAT breakout long entryWHEAT had a beautiful breakout candle yesterday, breaking the prior consolidation zone. I'm most interested in this idea because once I ran fib retracements there is so much alignment: 618 is perfect prior support, 0.5 is a teeeeny tiny gap, 382 is a consolidation zone, and we've defeated 236. Follow through and it is off to $10 at minimum. TP/SL targets pictured on chart. SL: trade setup invalidated with a daily close below 8.45. TP: $10 and above, depending on how you trade
AMEX:WEATLong
by upslidedown
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 710.4 Pivot: 699.4 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, the price has bounced off the second support at 668.25 which is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line, and went above the first support at 679.25. Price has also gone above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish bias. Looking for price to continue bullish to hit the first resistance at 710.4 where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could bounce back down from the pivot structure and drop to first support to 679.25, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement line sits Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Wheat Rally back on with Russian AnnexWheat surged $60 last night as Russia annouced votes in the local donbas regions they control in Ukraine. Critical to the wheat exports the port in that area also means perhaps sanctions and increased fighting may hurt global supply already under pressure. Adding to momentum is global headline news about beer shortages which adds to the grain rally. As long as these issues persist Wheat may trade aggressively higher as commodites move alot more sharply with the start of the war brining highs of $1300.
EASYMARKETS:WHTUSDLong
by easyMarkets
Coffee part 29. 20. 22 As promised, this is part two of coffee. I would suggest that you spend some time mermaids 2 videos. did you do the work they should have some value. These are highly repeatable Patterns, and they should be thought of taking into account probability and risk. You would think that if a market opens on Monday and makes a new low...the market will probably move lower. However, you would be wrong, and you are subjecting yourself to a losing trade or a missed opportunity to go long Because you didn't factor in the importance obstruction, and the importance of buyers at that level. Everything is about probability, and your ability to factor in more than the most simplistic analysis. It can be done.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
ZC Potential for bearish momentumType : Bearish Drop Resistance :681.75 Pivot: 688.00 Support : 668.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price reflecting off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line and the price being inside ichimoku cloud, we have a neutral bias on corn. price could back to 668.25 where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price might go back up towards the pivot line at 688.00 Fundamentals: Top farming and food firms could lose up to a quarter of their value by 2030 if they do not adapt to new government policies and consumer behavior tied to climate change, United Nations-affiliated campaigners said in a new report. (Farm and food investors face $150 bln loss on climate change)
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to GoThis is a call I wanted to make yesterday, but didn't have time. With the time I had, there was a choice between this and a Nasdaq NS call and made the Nasdaq call: Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points But in fairness, I did pick up November options during yesterday's session, so at least I can say that much for myself, since this has some vibes of hindsight based on today's action. Regardless, Soybeans gives strong cause to believe bullish action is imminent, based on the monthly candles: What this tells us that our June high formed a double top with the '12 all-time high. But most critically, it formed a lower high double top, which means that MMs are likely to seek this level to crush bear skulls, and it's just a question of when. The post-resistance top was really a long gap fill and we've also had three months of consolidation. As everyone who's traded with real money knows, picking the direction and the price is not the hardest, but instead, the timing is the very hardest, and most critical, thing. And in terms of timing, the weekly gives us good cause to believe we're ready to go. We see that late July featured a gap up, which has been filled in and heavily consolidated over the course of five weeks: And thusly, there is significantly reduced reason to believe that Soybeans are set to seek new lows instead of new highs. And indeed, on the daily, what has manifested is a string of higher lows, culminating in this morning's gundown of the 1,400 level A gundown that looks exceptionally turtle soup on the 1H, albeit retrospectively since it already ripped. But note that the rip occurred at 9:00 just before NYSE opens, significant because there are ETFs like SOYB that get caught gap up. More importantly, maybe consider not trying to short the pop. Instead, going long on a pullback could be quite good. And so, in magnifying the timeframe down to the 4H, I discovered that targeting boxes that appeared correct on the wider time frame were a little too shallow on the lower time frames. Thusly, I have generated a "revised" targeting box. However, like I said, time is the harder consideration. I feel ZS will get there, but who knows when? In the meantime, a rundown of the 1,500 level, which corresponds with those August-July relative equal highs around ~1,485 is very realistic. Everyone knows the global food supply is in trouble because of all the drought . Whether it's corn, wheat, soy, or whatever. And while you can certainly expect a new all time high to be made, it's really a question of when. Months like December, January, and February when everything is both trapped in winter, a new calendar year, and people are struggling to pay incredibly high natural gas/electricity bills across the world resulting from problems governments have created since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine this year, may be the more likely time target for 2,000 point Soybeans.
CBOT:ZS1!
by LordWrymouth
3
Market ideas for Friday - SPY, GOLD, USOIL BTC DXY WHEATOK so yesterday was not my best day. There are still some signs of a reversal possible but unless spy gets over 390 in the next day or two, all rallies will be suspect. USOIL looks like a correction is over and we should go higher, Wheat correction is normal for the first leg up, it could test 8.14-8.00. Gold spiked through support but it doesn't mean anything just yet, esp if the dollar reverses soon. BTC holding it's support at 19500, under 19k would be problematic. Thanks very much for listening and good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by the_sunship
7
SBUX: Have Bears Been Needing More Espressos?Primary Chart: Two Anchored VWAPS from Important Highs and Lows and Fibonacci Levels Have bears been needing more espressos? Looking solely at SBUX's chart and ignoring most other equities and equity indices, one might suspect the indices had been doing well since May 12, 2022. SBUX put in a trading low on that date and has made higher lows ever since then. Equity indices tell a much different story, however, with significant declines in mid-June 2022 that made lower lows in this bear market. Equity indices also experienced a significant decline in August and early September 2022. Supplementary Chart A: Upper Bollinger Band Snap on SBUX's Daily Chart and SBUX's Relative Performance Compared to the S&P 500 AMEX:SPY On Supplementary Chart A, notice the following technical features: SBUX made a new multi-month high on September 14, 2022, whereas SP:SPX did not. SBUX's low in May 2022 was not undercut by a June 2022 low, whereas SP:SPX 's low in May 2022 was in fact undercut by lower lows in June 2022. SBUX has been making higher highs and higher lows since May 9, 2022, whereas SPX's price action has been more choppy. SPX made a lower low in June 2022 unlike SBUX. SPX made a lower high September 12, 2022, while SBUX did not. SPX did not snap its upper Bollinger Band today, September 14, 2022. SBUX's 8-day EMA has held above its 21-day EMA for much of the time since the May 2022 low. SBUX's decline in late August and early September 2022 occurred without breaking the structure of the intermediate-term uptrend that has been in existence since SBUX's May 2022 low. Overall, SBUX has outperformed SPX substantially since SBUX's May 9, 2022, low. The outperformance of SBUX has been especially notable today, September 14, 2022. Ironically, this outperformance follows weeks of frustrating and choppy price action in the equity indices, as exemplified by the US index OANDA:SPX500USD . SPX rallied powerfully into August 16, 2022, then it fell sharply about -10% into early September 2022. This steep decline was followed by a 4-day rally of about +6%, which was followed by a 2-day decline of about -5%. So one might be forgiven for wondering whether traders and investors have needed more espressos, which of course could in theory cause a boost to demand for SBUX's beverages despite an ever inflating cost. SBUX began struggling before the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Perhaps traders were enjoying their profits so much that they just started foregoing those pricey espressos more often. SPX made its all-time high on January 4, 2022. NDX made its all time high several weeks earlier. SBUX started struggling in July 2021, much earlier than broader markets did. Supplementary Chart B: SBUX's Weakness Began Earlier than Broader Equity Indices All humor aside, a longer-term view shows just how wide of a moat SBUX had built for itself worldwide regardless of where its beverages are deemed to rank amongst espresso makers. Consider SBUX's long-term logarithmic trendline shown in the chart below. Supplementary Chart C (below) shows how this line has been respected for decades. This longer logarithmic line goes back to 1992. Supplementary Chart C.1: Long-Term Logarithmic Trendlines Two more long-term trendlines are worth considering below. These are also drawn on Supplementary Chart C.2 (also logarithmic), and they are shorter in duration than the 1992-present trendline in Supplementary Chart C.1. Supplementary Chart C.2: Two More Long-Term Logarithmic Trendlines On Supplementary Chart C.2, notice that what appeared to be a decisive break in the longer-term logarithmic trendline in March 2022 was a failed breakdown, also known as a whipsaw. Price recovered back above the trendline as people realized the pandemic would not ultimately win in separating them from their beloved hand-crafted lattes. But the longer logarithmic trendline was broken again this year in the broader bear market. Yet price recovered above this longer-term trendline this week. Was that due to all the market participants deciding it was more fun to have a drink with a friend at SBUX than to trade? Probably not, but it's an interesting coincidence that SBUX's outperformance starts to shine when equity indices have chopped and frustrated bears and bulls alike for the past several weeks and months. The shorter logarithmic line (also a long-term line going back to March 2020) shown on Supplementary Chart C shows price holding above this line since the lows on May 2022. What comes next? Equity indices have been in an ongoing bear market. The macroeconomic environment, hawkish central-bank policies, and tightening financial conditions would seem to suggest price cannot continue an unobstructed rise. But since May 2022, price has managed to carve out an intermediate-term uptrend structure in the midst of an ongoing bear market. A significant anchored VWAP, shown in dark blue on the Primary Chart at the start of this article, lies directly overhead. This must be recovered along with the .50 (green) and .618 (gold) retracement levels at $97.35 and $104.19 before getting excessively optimistic. But as everyone knows, a security's price can do anything it wants. And consumers can increase or decrease SBUX beverage consumption in the midst of a challenging financial environment where everything costs more, and less cash is available to pay for fancy drinks. But one might reasonably conclude that less consumption could be in store unless inflation can be brought down by hawkish central banks without causing a recession. _____________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:SBUX
by SquishTrade
12
The Monday Notes - SPX500 USOIL Wheat Gold DXY BTCAll in the video, expecting a pullback but how much is hard to say if it's a B wave. Logic tells me to feed the bears just enough before they take away the plate, but we'll have to see how CPI is reacted to tomorrow. Oil looks very good for a move above 100 still, Wheat could still be a Flat completing, but I'm not concerned about a pullback if it does. Gold, looks good for more upside after a pullback and the Dollar looks good for a bounce and then more downside. BTC should follow the markets, target of 22500 is close, they may pullback before it gets hit. Good luck to all.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by the_sunship
2