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Agricultural Commodities

Market ideas for Friday - SPY, GOLD, USOIL BTC DXY WHEATOK so yesterday was not my best day. There are still some signs of a reversal possible but unless spy gets over 390 in the next day or two, all rallies will be suspect. USOIL looks like a correction is over and we should go higher, Wheat correction is normal for the first leg up, it could test 8.14-8.00. Gold spiked through support but it doesn't mean anything just yet, esp if the dollar reverses soon. BTC holding it's support at 19500, under 19k would be problematic. Thanks very much for listening and good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by the_sunship
7
SBUX: Have Bears Been Needing More Espressos?Primary Chart: Two Anchored VWAPS from Important Highs and Lows and Fibonacci Levels Have bears been needing more espressos? Looking solely at SBUX's chart and ignoring most other equities and equity indices, one might suspect the indices had been doing well since May 12, 2022. SBUX put in a trading low on that date and has made higher lows ever since then. Equity indices tell a much different story, however, with significant declines in mid-June 2022 that made lower lows in this bear market. Equity indices also experienced a significant decline in August and early September 2022. Supplementary Chart A: Upper Bollinger Band Snap on SBUX's Daily Chart and SBUX's Relative Performance Compared to the S&P 500 AMEX:SPY On Supplementary Chart A, notice the following technical features: SBUX made a new multi-month high on September 14, 2022, whereas SP:SPX did not. SBUX's low in May 2022 was not undercut by a June 2022 low, whereas SP:SPX 's low in May 2022 was in fact undercut by lower lows in June 2022. SBUX has been making higher highs and higher lows since May 9, 2022, whereas SPX's price action has been more choppy. SPX made a lower low in June 2022 unlike SBUX. SPX made a lower high September 12, 2022, while SBUX did not. SPX did not snap its upper Bollinger Band today, September 14, 2022. SBUX's 8-day EMA has held above its 21-day EMA for much of the time since the May 2022 low. SBUX's decline in late August and early September 2022 occurred without breaking the structure of the intermediate-term uptrend that has been in existence since SBUX's May 2022 low. Overall, SBUX has outperformed SPX substantially since SBUX's May 9, 2022, low. The outperformance of SBUX has been especially notable today, September 14, 2022. Ironically, this outperformance follows weeks of frustrating and choppy price action in the equity indices, as exemplified by the US index OANDA:SPX500USD . SPX rallied powerfully into August 16, 2022, then it fell sharply about -10% into early September 2022. This steep decline was followed by a 4-day rally of about +6%, which was followed by a 2-day decline of about -5%. So one might be forgiven for wondering whether traders and investors have needed more espressos, which of course could in theory cause a boost to demand for SBUX's beverages despite an ever inflating cost. SBUX began struggling before the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Perhaps traders were enjoying their profits so much that they just started foregoing those pricey espressos more often. SPX made its all-time high on January 4, 2022. NDX made its all time high several weeks earlier. SBUX started struggling in July 2021, much earlier than broader markets did. Supplementary Chart B: SBUX's Weakness Began Earlier than Broader Equity Indices All humor aside, a longer-term view shows just how wide of a moat SBUX had built for itself worldwide regardless of where its beverages are deemed to rank amongst espresso makers. Consider SBUX's long-term logarithmic trendline shown in the chart below. Supplementary Chart C (below) shows how this line has been respected for decades. This longer logarithmic line goes back to 1992. Supplementary Chart C.1: Long-Term Logarithmic Trendlines Two more long-term trendlines are worth considering below. These are also drawn on Supplementary Chart C.2 (also logarithmic), and they are shorter in duration than the 1992-present trendline in Supplementary Chart C.1. Supplementary Chart C.2: Two More Long-Term Logarithmic Trendlines On Supplementary Chart C.2, notice that what appeared to be a decisive break in the longer-term logarithmic trendline in March 2022 was a failed breakdown, also known as a whipsaw. Price recovered back above the trendline as people realized the pandemic would not ultimately win in separating them from their beloved hand-crafted lattes. But the longer logarithmic trendline was broken again this year in the broader bear market. Yet price recovered above this longer-term trendline this week. Was that due to all the market participants deciding it was more fun to have a drink with a friend at SBUX than to trade? Probably not, but it's an interesting coincidence that SBUX's outperformance starts to shine when equity indices have chopped and frustrated bears and bulls alike for the past several weeks and months. The shorter logarithmic line (also a long-term line going back to March 2020) shown on Supplementary Chart C shows price holding above this line since the lows on May 2022. What comes next? Equity indices have been in an ongoing bear market. The macroeconomic environment, hawkish central-bank policies, and tightening financial conditions would seem to suggest price cannot continue an unobstructed rise. But since May 2022, price has managed to carve out an intermediate-term uptrend structure in the midst of an ongoing bear market. A significant anchored VWAP, shown in dark blue on the Primary Chart at the start of this article, lies directly overhead. This must be recovered along with the .50 (green) and .618 (gold) retracement levels at $97.35 and $104.19 before getting excessively optimistic. But as everyone knows, a security's price can do anything it wants. And consumers can increase or decrease SBUX beverage consumption in the midst of a challenging financial environment where everything costs more, and less cash is available to pay for fancy drinks. But one might reasonably conclude that less consumption could be in store unless inflation can be brought down by hawkish central banks without causing a recession. _____________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:SBUX
by SquishTrade
12
The Monday Notes - SPX500 USOIL Wheat Gold DXY BTCAll in the video, expecting a pullback but how much is hard to say if it's a B wave. Logic tells me to feed the bears just enough before they take away the plate, but we'll have to see how CPI is reacted to tomorrow. Oil looks very good for a move above 100 still, Wheat could still be a Flat completing, but I'm not concerned about a pullback if it does. Gold, looks good for more upside after a pullback and the Dollar looks good for a bounce and then more downside. BTC should follow the markets, target of 22500 is close, they may pullback before it gets hit. Good luck to all.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by the_sunship
2
Something is happening with Wheat futuresWheat got nuked in late May, as it re-tested the high. It did a full retrace, -36%. Impressive even for meme stocks let alone one of the most precious commodities on the planet. Wheat has spent Jul and Aug in the area of intense demand, which just happens to be around EMA(100) , from what I can see everyone is waiting for first harvest numbers to start sending futures higher. I'm expecting explosive few weeks, perhaps even hitting $12 again before the first snows in the northern hemisphere. The monthly chart is even more explicit:
OANDA:WHEATUSDLong
by Owcheew8
Update on the usual supects - SPX 500 OIL Wheat Gold DXY BTCI forgot bonds, will update if I need to- they still are sucking as of now. SP500 looks like it wants to rally, a hold over 3930 hourly chart would be a long. If we have one more down it will likely be the bottom for a few weeks. Oil could drop to 80 before a bounce. Wheat has a breakout and people are starting to pay attention to it. Gold looks ok and may be in the process of making a Wykoff topping structure. DXY likely pullback here now that all the cheerleaders are on the field. BTC rally to 22500 and if more, 28-29k. Good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by the_sunship
1
Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a CanSnakes in a can is not a great metaphor for food. Nonetheless, that's the pattern that seems to be developing on wheat futures. All know that the world's food crops are not in good shape. Massive drought tends to kill plants, which ruins harvests, which causes some obvious downside effects in economies. Each year in recent years, we're running out of supply until the next year's harvest arrives, which replenishes the silos, which means that you won't really feel the pain of a bad harvest until the following year. Yay for 2022, not so yay for 2023. 2024 is a dark horizon. On the monthly chart, Wheat ZW swept out the long-term 2008 high in March on the back of the Russian Federation invading Ukraine: It only swept the high, however, and has since corrected, hard. It's specifically notable that despite the massive dump, wheat did not take out the January pivot in either July, or in August's very gentle stop raid. In fact, wheat has spent the better part of two months ranging in this accumulation area, which is bad news for bears and good news for bulls. It's also notable that corn has already had a significant breakout that took out a previous month's high: Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a Turbo (Too bad I had my compass on backwards for that one and picked that it would go down before it would go up, when it just went up in a straight line. But hey, at least I drew my box in the right place -_-) Contracts of similar category tend to move in the same direction, but at different times, of each other. To be frank, I believe that this means wheat is all but guaranteed to set all new highs. However, it's a question of when. In reality, price is the easy part and time is the hard part. When it comes to "when," at least right now, you can tell from the pattern post-stop raid that we're ready to go somewhere, and that somewhere is probably up. In terms of between now and the end of September, I think that the most realistic targets are July's equal highs at ~845 and July's monthly high at ~940. I believe that a major commodities supercycle lies ahead. Something that will really be fun to trade but painful for reality. But I also believe that a big shakeout is imminent before we go there. For wheat, based on how its traded, this may mean it provides something of a shelter or a safe haven, running bull while many other things correct and dump. As the world gets crazy, keep in mind that no matter how the media and the government howls its narrative, the human race is still ultimately on a planet that orbits a sun and is positioned inside of a very, very, very immense Universe. The more immense the Universe, the less possible it is that we are either the only lives that exist or the highest lives that exist. That is how statistics and probabilities works. And I am not talking about such and such idea of aliens. I am talking about the idea of "Gods," which I do not regard as limited to the Marxist-smeared religious dogma of a giant old white man wearing a robe in the sky judging you when you swear or drink. Instead, to speak of Gods is to simply have a rational understanding about the structure of the Cosmos, its multitudinous dimensions, and those higher lives with power that occupy those dimensions and oversee this human stage during the end of a Cosmic Era. What I am getting at with the above, is that no matter how "chaotic" things get, the chaos is actually a manifest form of order. Things are happening for a reason, are planned both above and below in advance, and no matter how the Earth capsizes and the Sky falls, the tribulation provides an opportunity. The Divine is ultimately in control of where we are headed, and for good people, there is hope. So make sure you maintain your kindness, your conscience, your sense of justice, and your rationality. Do your best, and don't lose heart. In history, humanity's catastrophes, such as famines, have always had a target, and the target has almost never been people who are virtuous and are walking on the traditional path.
CBOT:ZW1!
by LordWrymouth
2