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Agricultural Commodities

SugarSugar has been trading within a large rising channel for almost a year. After recently testing and confirming channel support, price has rebounded and we're just about halfway up the channel. A falling window (gap down) served as resistance on the way down to support and has also temporary stalled the current rally. Now, after a strong daily close above the falling window we are currently testing old resistance as new support. I'm now long and looking to take a small piece out of this market as price moves towards channel resistance.
PEPPERSTONE:SUGARLong
by KH2_Artizan
Head & Shoulders Top in December 2022 Wheat?Paul Wankmueller CMT of Blue Line Futures sees a Head and Shoulders Top in December 2022 CBOT Wheat. Feel free to reach out with any Technical Analysis Questions! Today Wheat broke through the neckline of a Head & Shoulders top with conviction, confirming the pattern. Using the distance between the neckline and the top of the head, the continuation can conclude at the previous resistance. Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWZ2022Short
by Paul_Wankmueller
Cocoa #CC Cacao Analysis I will start with Base Support (SB) which in my last analysis I said: ‘Base Support SB at 2315 still holds, if this breaks next support would be around 2200 ($80q) followed by 2150.’ On July 1, the price of CC touched the base support level, and bounced back up only to fall on July 7th again and close the week on the SB level. This is clearly not a positive and may be indicative of further weakness to come. Resistance D (red line) continues to serve as a ceiling and cocoa is still far from approaching this R. The MACD indicator is still showing a downward trend, as well as the EMA’s averages. Likewise, the DXY indicator (dollar) continues to rise, in this case weakening the price of cocoa. THERE IS NO CHANGE OF TREND at the moment but these next few days will be important. If cocoa fails to recover, we will be seeing new levels, possibly around $2,200 per ton or $80 per quintal. Europe & the US continue on a recessionary path with higher inflation. Consumption decreases as the purchasing power of the consumer is eroded and chocolate will most likely also be touched. Next week grinding data will be out and that will give us a clearer indication regarding the real health of the consumption of chocolate. If the volume of grindings remains the same or rises, then a positive, if they fall, it indicates that the recession is affecting the chocolate market, and consequently the purchase of its raw material, cocoa. Comienzo con el Soporte Base SB que en mi último análisis dije: ‘El soporte base SB de 2315 aún se mantiene, si este rompe el próximo soporte sería alrededor de 2200 ($80q) seguido de 2150.’ El 1 julio el precio del cacao tocó el nivel del soporte base, y rebotó con debilidad el 7 de julio para de nuevo recaer y cerrar la semana al SB. Esto claramente no es positivo y puede ser indicativo de mayor debilidad por venir. La resistencia D (roja) sigue sirviendo de techo y por lo visto aún está lejos de acercarse. El indicador MACD aún muestra una tendencia a la baja, así como los promedios EMA. Igualmente, el indicador DXY (dólar) se mantiene en alza debilitando en este caso el curso del cacao. NO HAY CAMBIO DE TENDENCIA por el momento pero estos proximos dias seran importantes. Sí el cacao no logra recuperarse estaremos viendo nuevos niveles posiblemente alrededor de $2200 por tonelada o $80 por quintal. Europa & EEUU siguen en una trayectoria recesionaria con mayor inflación. El consumo disminuye a medida que se erosiona la capacidad adquisitiva del consumidor y el chocolate también tendrá afectación. La próxima semana saldrán datos de moliendas y eso nos dará un indicativo más claro en cuanto al consumo real del chocolate. Si volumen de moliendas se mantiene o suben entonces un positivo, si bajan indicador de que la recesión está afectando el mercado del chocolate, y a consecuencia la compra de su materia prima el cacao.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
CORN FUTURES SELL CALL OUT BY JOHN THE FOREX GUY!NB Watch the video I published on corn sell I explained my trade in more details. I will give you an IDEA/EXAMPLE how I am taking this trade lets base this on a $100 account: (A) Open 1x position SELL (B) Stop loss -$5.50 (5.5% loss of $100) (C) Take profit +$25.00(25% profit of $100) Disclaimer I not a financial advisor I am simply a retail trader sharing my trade where I entered, plan to exit loss and profit so always do your own research before committing/investing your money.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by b522c56f985c4db38e69230ce2cc1a
13
Time for a Relief Rally?Wheat Fundamentals: Yesterday's crop progress report showed spring wheat ratings at 66% good/excellent, 7% better than estimates. Winter wheat is 54% harvested, a hair behind expectations. Yesterday's weekly export inspections came in at 111,830 metric tons, well below the range of estimates. Technicals: Our bias has been in bearish territory for a while now, but the market retreated back to some significant levels. Previous resistance in December and February from 800-815, was the breakout point on February 22nd. The full retracement in our eyes represents a short-term opportunity for relief in what is also a deeply oversold market. The chart still looks ugly as sin, but as with corn, there's a good risk/reward trade to the buyside at these levels, whether that be short covering or initiating a new position. We are moving our bias out of bearish territory to outright Neutral. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 898 ½-903****, 960-970*** Pivot: 839-849 Support: 800-815****, 739-749*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
How does the surge in sugar futures affect Coca-Cola’s profit? Sugar is used in food, beverage, and in biofuel production, and its importance in global trade gives it a strong position in the commodity futures market. The price of sugar has surged 17% since the beginning of January 2021. Reduced Brazil production Sugar prices have recently been affected by production levels in Brazil, a key sugarcane producer and exporter. In May, Brazilian mills reportedly had to cancel sugar export contracts as they shifted to ethanol production, seeking to capitalize on high energy prices. Brazil supplies half of the world’s sugar, producing 654.8 million tonnes of sugarcane, 41.25 million tonnes of processed sugar and 29.7 billion liters of ethanol annually. As the Ukraine crisis triggered a global energy crisis, Brazilian farmers shifted to ethanol production. However, the US Department of Agriculture estimates that sugarcane crop in Brazil will recover 6% year over year to 613 million metric tons in the 2022-2023 marketing year. Strong output in India and Thailand Still, India and Thailand, which also export substantial volumes of sugar, are making up for the reduced output in Brazil. Last month, a trade group in India said the country could produce a record 36 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, up 3% from early estimates. The record output in India and improving production levels in Thailand could bring global sugar prices down. But concerns that the Indian government could curb exports recently pushed the prices of sugar futures higher. Sugar users bear brunt While concerns of lower sugar production can be a win for sugar futures traders, users of the commodity are bearing the costs of low sugar supplies and higher inflation. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), known for its namesake sugary drink, is considering additional price hikes as record-high inflation is eating away companies’ profit margins. Last year, Coca-Cola raised the prices of its products to counter higher commodity costs, joining other consumer brands like PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM). The price hike helped the soda manufacturer grow its full-year revenue in 2021 by 17% year over year to $38.7 billion. Household brands like Coca-Cola, which continues to dominate the global market for soft drinks, have strong pricing power, allowing them to pass on higher input costs to customers. Thus, Coca-Cola’s stock price has risen in line with the price of sugar since the beginning of 2021, up by ~20%. However, Coca-Cola and rival PepsiCo recently suffered from lower margins despite strong revenues. The companies warned in February that rising costs are weighing on their profit margins, prompting them to lower their sales expectations. Banking on pricing power "We control our supply chain basically all the way to the shelf. That puts us in a relatively better position, but I wouldn't say we're not going to have challenges. We're not immune to that," Johnston reportedly said. PepsiCo’s stock climbed 13% over the past year as of Tuesday. Coca-Cola CFO John Murphy echoed Johnston’s concerns, telling analysts in an earnings call in February that the company continues to expect commodity price inflation to have a mid-single-digit impact on comparable cost of goods sold in 2022. But Murphy remains bullish on the company’s pricing power, saying commodity pressures will be offset by the company’s “pricing power and brand leadership.”
BLACKBULL:SB.F
by BlackBull_Markets
Soybeans Retreat to the 200-Day Moving Average Soybeans Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 29,914 futures/options contracts through June 28th. Majority of this was long liquidation, 26,432 contracts. This shrinks their net long position to 124,498 futures/options. Fundamentals: Late last week there were rumors circulating that 8 cargoes of soybeans were cancelled; this would certainly help explain the extensive selling we saw on Friday. Scattered rains over the weekend may help prices see some continuation of long liquidation. Technicals: The big drop on Friday was ugly on the screen, especially when considering the reversal on Thursday off resistance near $16.00. The market finished roughly 90 cents off those Thursday highs and are now threatening to take out the recent lows1494 ¾-1500. A break and close below here would open the door for a run at the 200-day moving average, 1456. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1533 ½ Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
The heat may be offINVESTMENT CONTEXT Inflation in Eurozone climbed from 8.1% in May to 8.6% in June, growing in 17 of 19 countries, with the notable exception of Germany (slide from 8.7% to 8.2%) and the Netherlands (from 10.2% to 9.9%). ECB officially scrapped its EUR 20bn/months bond-buying program on July 1 S&P 500 energy sub-index fell 17% in June, ranking as the worst-performing within the index While U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced “the single biggest tax cut in a decade”, estimated in of GBP 6bn (USD 7.4bn), France slashed its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 from 4% to 2.5% After lifting objections, Turkey said that it could still block Finland and Sweden’s accession to Nato in case if Nordic countries failed to meet the demand of Kurdish separatists extradition. Inflation in the country is still just a hair below 80%, as the Central Bank refuses to raise interest rates, leaving analysts to presume capital controls may be introduced to stop the bleeding On July 3, Russia announced its full control of Luhansk region in Eastern Ukraine, after seizing the city of Lycychansk, the last Ukrainian holdout in the area Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital suspended trading, deposits, loyalty rewards and withdrawals on July 1, after sending a default notice to hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) U.S. markets closed on July 4 for Independence Day; European markets regularly open PROFONE'S TAKE Global equity markets recorded their worst half of a year since 1970, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq collapsing 21% and 30%, respectively. Deep risk-off sentiment still grips most areas of the market, fueled by growing inflation (8.6% in June after 8.1% in May in Eurozone; U.S. print expected in the coming days) and next steps of tightening monetary policy (in July, both the Fed and the ECB are expected to hike rates by 75 bps and 25-50 bps, respectively). The correction in energy and industrial metals prices was caused by mounting recession fears, while also a potentially better than forecasted harvest season in some parts of globe (U.S., Europe, Australia) could ease the pressure on consumer prices. Still, Profs don’t see the emergence of any major catalyst that could trigger a sustained reversal: for instance, on the macro front, there are no clear-cut signs of a ceasefire happening in Ukraine, thus leaving the threat of supply chain disruptions looming. PROFZERO'S TAKE As early as May 6, ProfZero placed global credit markets on particular watch, as much of the global pressures could be expected not only to raise the costs of business financing; but in more dire terms, to trigger defaults on weakest borrowers. On May 20, Sri Lanka defaulted for the first time in its history, as the economy was crushed by unsustainable fuel and food prices; at the time of writing, also the State of Laos faces fuel shortages and growing default risk. ProfZero is not particularly concerned by Russia's technical default, which has been clearly caused by the effect of sanctions; in contrast, what catches its attention is the state of financial health of several European countries, and chiefly Italy, who relied excessively on both low interest rates and the ECB role of buyer of last resort. Analysts have already dubbed ECB President Christine Lagarde messages on fragmentation as "vague" - and nothing irritates traders more than ambiguity, save, perhaps, short sellers, who indeed are piling up bear positions (Ray Dalio's Bridgewater has amassed some USD 10.5bn sell-side positions). Europe is the epicenter of this bear market - and ProfZero unfortunately sees scant chances for a quick turnaround ProfZero is also unfazed by the purported fall in commodity prices. While certainly the prices of cotton, wheat, copper and iron ore are are down even up to more than 30%, European natural gas is trading at EUR 155/MWh for 1-month deliveries - compared to EUR 22.11/MWh on July 4, 2021. Inflation is certainly receding from certain corners of the economy - but the European energy tangle remains far from being undone
by ProfZero
1
WEAT - Massive double top short opportunity using wheat etfDouble top Volume profile showing a lot of supply Seasonal data favors downside until mid September Plan your trades before executing the trade. How much are you willing to bet? Where will you get out? How will you lock in profits? Risk: 60 bps Profit Protection: 3-Day Trailing Stop Rule (Peter Brandt) You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money ~Mark Douglas Anything can happen ~Mark Douglas
AMEX:WEATShort
by pangx623
2
Continuous Corn - WeeklyContinuous Corn - Weekly: **The big red bar down this week is a bit exaggerated as this chart has rolled to chart against the Sep with a 1.20+ inverse. Nonetheless, corn is still down .50 +/- for the week. The 6.16 low hit the trendline, time will tell if this holds. Should we see a bounce from here the first test will be at 7.05 to 7.20. Primary targeted area at 7.72 to 8.00. Extended potential above 8.24 at the 8.50 area. IMO, we will need the reality of production cuts to see new highs, not just a weather forecast.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Corn: Pitch forks at playContinuous Corn – Weekly: Up trending vs Down trending Pitchforks – Continued from 6/2/22… Up until two weeks ago it appeared that cash corn was going to follow the green bars up with the up trending pitchfork. The July/Sep inverse was a big challenge and the move lower just killed the chance for the continuous chart to maintain upward momentum. Currently the Sep corn leading the continuous chart and is looking for support against the median line in the 6.00 to 6.08 area. If we can catch a bounce look for resistance against the lower level blue line up into the upper level red line. Retracements in the 7.00 to 7.50 area will match up against the pitchfork resistance zones. Below the median line offers support around the 5.45 area
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980