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Agricultural Commodities

KCZ2022 ES1!8.29.22 Today's review a coffee and the ES. I think you need to be very careful with coffee which can definitely have great move and is volatile enough to be a market you want to follow. The ES had a great reversal lower, and seems to be developing a trending swing lower. however, it came to support and may trade higher for a period of time. I think it will eventually find sellers and I want to show you how I might use my tools, and how I think the market might trade.... and even be profitable for buyers and sellers the scalp.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin
1
Corn Shortage! Blah Blah BlahThis week has brought about news on the projected corn yields dropping marginally, which in turn, is pushing this beast into higher territory. As we check out the chart we can see we have a significant golden pocket that will act as the Berlin Wall for corn. Prices below the golden pocket will act as East Berlin, controlled by the soviets during the Cold War. Trapped in a descending trend. If corn manages to push past the golden pocket + trend line resistance, corn will now be on the west side of the Berlin Wall. Free to explode into the June highs of $7.5. In this analogy, I personally think that the soviets will maintain control and rule over corn until harvest is over. Corn harvest has started in the south and will continue into Nov. As we harvest we will have more corn in the bins and ready to use. Which will lead to lower prices IMO. Simple supply and demand. Based off of the chart technicals, I am even more confident in saying that corn will be rejected because of where the GP and trend resistance lays. Once price reaches those levels I am expecting to see a bearish divergence on all three oscillators, and then I will go short big time. This could be a multi-month trade. But as always take profits on your way at key targets. Major short target: $5.70-$5.30
CBOT:ZCZ2022Short
by farmtrader15
3
Wheat up four days consecutively & approaching local resistanceTechnically, wheat has seen 4 consecutive sessions of strength. This is in the face of a stronger dollar and recessionary fears, which in theory should sap sentiment and forward demand dynamics. Wheat is approaching key level of resistance at 810. This is a previous POC, that has proved difficult to breach. Though fundamentally wheat should stay bid, considering macro outlook and supply issues, MACD, vwap and RSI all point down to further pressure should this fib retrace become invalidated
WShort
by jbanton86829
U.S. 2022 Cotton Crop lowest since 2009 According to USDA’s August forecast of the 2022 cotton crop, U.S. production is projected at 12.6 million bales, considerably below last season’s final estimate of 17.5 million bales and the lowest crop estimate in 13 years. Compared with 2021, cotton harvested area is also forecast significantly (31 percent) lower, but a higher national yield limits a further production decline. Based on the August forecast, 2022 cotton planted acreage is estimated at nearly 12.5 million acres—the area indicated in the June Acreage report and the highest in 3 years, as cotton prices heading into planting season were at historically high levels. However, drought conditions this season in the Southwest—the largest cotton region—is expected to reduce harvested area there dramatically. As a result, a substantially lower U.S. cotton harvested acreage estimate (7.1 million acres) is forecast, the smallest in over 150 years. However, the U.S. abandonment rate projection (43 percent) is the highest on record. The U.S. cotton yield is forecast at 846 pounds per harvested acre in 2022, slightly above the 3-year average. Upland cotton production in 2022 is forecast at 12.2 million bales, 29 percent (5 million bales) below 2021 and the smallest crop since 2009. During the past 20 years, the August upland production forecast was above the final estimate 12 times and below it 8 times. Past differences between the August forecast and the final production estimates indicate a 2 out of 3 chance for the 2022 upland crop to range between 11 million and 13.3 million bales.
CShort
by Sal98