CORN FUTURES SELL CALL OUT BY JOHN THE FOREX GUY!NB Watch the video I published on corn sell I explained my trade in more details.
I will give you an IDEA/EXAMPLE how I am taking this trade lets base this on a $100 account:
(A) Open 1x position SELL
(B) Stop loss -$5.50 (5.5% loss of $100)
(C) Take profit +$25.00(25% profit of $100)
Disclaimer I not a financial advisor I am simply a retail trader sharing my trade where I entered, plan to exit loss and profit so always do your own research before committing/investing your money.
Agricultural Commodities
Time for a Relief Rally?Wheat
Fundamentals: Yesterday's crop progress report showed spring wheat ratings at 66% good/excellent, 7% better than estimates. Winter wheat is 54% harvested, a hair behind expectations. Yesterday's weekly export inspections came in at 111,830 metric tons, well below the range of estimates.
Technicals: Our bias has been in bearish territory for a while now, but the market retreated back to some significant levels. Previous resistance in December and February from 800-815, was the breakout point on February 22nd. The full retracement in our eyes represents a short-term opportunity for relief in what is also a deeply oversold market. The chart still looks ugly as sin, but as with corn, there's a good risk/reward trade to the buyside at these levels, whether that be short covering or initiating a new position. We are moving our bias out of bearish territory to outright Neutral.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 898 ½-903****, 960-970***
Pivot: 839-849
Support: 800-815****, 739-749***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
WHITE SUGAR CASH CFD SETUP IDEAWeek setup: Bearish Engulfing bar
Day signal: Retest of Hidden Head & Shoulders neckline.
4HR Signal: Retest of Head & Shoulders neckline + Double Tops downtrend.
1HR Signal: Retest of Double Top downtrend neckline.
IDEA: A strong daily close of price below $549 would suggest a more bearish sentiment.
How does the surge in sugar futures affect Coca-Cola’s profit?
Sugar is used in food, beverage, and in biofuel production, and its importance in global trade gives it a strong position in the commodity futures market. The price of sugar has surged 17% since the beginning of January 2021.
Reduced Brazil production
Sugar prices have recently been affected by production levels in Brazil, a key sugarcane producer and exporter. In May, Brazilian mills reportedly had to cancel sugar export contracts as they shifted to ethanol production, seeking to capitalize on high energy prices.
Brazil supplies half of the world’s sugar, producing 654.8 million tonnes of sugarcane, 41.25 million tonnes of processed sugar and 29.7 billion liters of ethanol annually.
As the Ukraine crisis triggered a global energy crisis, Brazilian farmers shifted to ethanol production. However, the US Department of Agriculture estimates that sugarcane crop in Brazil will recover 6% year over year to 613 million metric tons in the 2022-2023 marketing year.
Strong output in India and Thailand
Still, India and Thailand, which also export substantial volumes of sugar, are making up for the reduced output in Brazil. Last month, a trade group in India said the country could produce a record 36 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, up 3% from early estimates.
The record output in India and improving production levels in Thailand could bring global sugar prices down. But concerns that the Indian government could curb exports recently pushed the prices of sugar futures higher.
Sugar users bear brunt
While concerns of lower sugar production can be a win for sugar futures traders, users of the commodity are bearing the costs of low sugar supplies and higher inflation.
Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), known for its namesake sugary drink, is considering additional price hikes as record-high inflation is eating away companies’ profit margins.
Last year, Coca-Cola raised the prices of its products to counter higher commodity costs, joining other consumer brands like PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM).
The price hike helped the soda manufacturer grow its full-year revenue in 2021 by 17% year over year to $38.7 billion. Household brands like Coca-Cola, which continues to dominate the global market for soft drinks, have strong pricing power, allowing them to pass on higher input costs to customers.
Thus, Coca-Cola’s stock price has risen in line with the price of sugar since the beginning of 2021, up by ~20%.
However, Coca-Cola and rival PepsiCo recently suffered from lower margins despite strong revenues. The companies warned in February that rising costs are weighing on their profit margins, prompting them to lower their sales expectations.
Banking on pricing power
"We control our supply chain basically all the way to the shelf. That puts us in a relatively better position, but I wouldn't say we're not going to have challenges. We're not immune to that," Johnston reportedly said.
PepsiCo’s stock climbed 13% over the past year as of Tuesday.
Coca-Cola CFO John Murphy echoed Johnston’s concerns, telling analysts in an earnings call in February that the company continues to expect commodity price inflation to have a mid-single-digit impact on comparable cost of goods sold in 2022.
But Murphy remains bullish on the company’s pricing power, saying commodity pressures will be offset by the company’s “pricing power and brand leadership.”
Soybeans Retreat to the 200-Day Moving Average Soybeans
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 29,914 futures/options contracts through June 28th. Majority of this was long liquidation, 26,432 contracts. This shrinks their net long position to 124,498 futures/options.
Fundamentals: Late last week there were rumors circulating that 8 cargoes of soybeans were cancelled; this would certainly help explain the extensive selling we saw on Friday. Scattered rains over the weekend may help prices see some continuation of long liquidation.
Technicals: The big drop on Friday was ugly on the screen, especially when considering the reversal on Thursday off resistance near $16.00. The market finished roughly 90 cents off those Thursday highs and are now threatening to take out the recent lows1494 ¾-1500. A break and close below here would open the door for a run at the 200-day moving average, 1456.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597***
Pivot: 1533 ½
Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The heat may be offINVESTMENT CONTEXT
Inflation in Eurozone climbed from 8.1% in May to 8.6% in June, growing in 17 of 19 countries, with the notable exception of Germany (slide from 8.7% to 8.2%) and the Netherlands (from 10.2% to 9.9%). ECB officially scrapped its EUR 20bn/months bond-buying program on July 1
S&P 500 energy sub-index fell 17% in June, ranking as the worst-performing within the index
While U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced “the single biggest tax cut in a decade”, estimated in of GBP 6bn (USD 7.4bn), France slashed its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 from 4% to 2.5%
After lifting objections, Turkey said that it could still block Finland and Sweden’s accession to Nato in case if Nordic countries failed to meet the demand of Kurdish separatists extradition. Inflation in the country is still just a hair below 80%, as the Central Bank refuses to raise interest rates, leaving analysts to presume capital controls may be introduced to stop the bleeding
On July 3, Russia announced its full control of Luhansk region in Eastern Ukraine, after seizing the city of Lycychansk, the last Ukrainian holdout in the area
Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital suspended trading, deposits, loyalty rewards and withdrawals on July 1, after sending a default notice to hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC)
U.S. markets closed on July 4 for Independence Day; European markets regularly open
PROFONE'S TAKE
Global equity markets recorded their worst half of a year since 1970, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq collapsing 21% and 30%, respectively. Deep risk-off sentiment still grips most areas of the market, fueled by growing inflation (8.6% in June after 8.1% in May in Eurozone; U.S. print expected in the coming days) and next steps of tightening monetary policy (in July, both the Fed and the ECB are expected to hike rates by 75 bps and 25-50 bps, respectively). The correction in energy and industrial metals prices was caused by mounting recession fears, while also a potentially better than forecasted harvest season in some parts of globe (U.S., Europe, Australia) could ease the pressure on consumer prices. Still, Profs don’t see the emergence of any major catalyst that could trigger a sustained reversal: for instance, on the macro front, there are no clear-cut signs of a ceasefire happening in Ukraine, thus leaving the threat of supply chain disruptions looming.
PROFZERO'S TAKE
As early as May 6, ProfZero placed global credit markets on particular watch, as much of the global pressures could be expected not only to raise the costs of business financing; but in more dire terms, to trigger defaults on weakest borrowers. On May 20, Sri Lanka defaulted for the first time in its history, as the economy was crushed by unsustainable fuel and food prices; at the time of writing, also the State of Laos faces fuel shortages and growing default risk. ProfZero is not particularly concerned by Russia's technical default, which has been clearly caused by the effect of sanctions; in contrast, what catches its attention is the state of financial health of several European countries, and chiefly Italy, who relied excessively on both low interest rates and the ECB role of buyer of last resort. Analysts have already dubbed ECB President Christine Lagarde messages on fragmentation as "vague" - and nothing irritates traders more than ambiguity, save, perhaps, short sellers, who indeed are piling up bear positions (Ray Dalio's Bridgewater has amassed some USD 10.5bn sell-side positions). Europe is the epicenter of this bear market - and ProfZero unfortunately sees scant chances for a quick turnaround
ProfZero is also unfazed by the purported fall in commodity prices. While certainly the prices of cotton, wheat, copper and iron ore are are down even up to more than 30%, European natural gas is trading at EUR 155/MWh for 1-month deliveries - compared to EUR 22.11/MWh on July 4, 2021. Inflation is certainly receding from certain corners of the economy - but the European energy tangle remains far from being undone
WHEAT Reststing Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
WHEAT is trading in an long-term uptrend
But the price has taken a sharp dive
From the recent highs
And is approaching a rising support line
From where I am expecting a rebound
And a move up to retest the resistance above
Buy!
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WEAT - Massive double top short opportunity using wheat etfDouble top
Volume profile showing a lot of supply
Seasonal data favors downside until mid September
Plan your trades before executing the trade. How much are you willing to bet? Where will you get out? How will you lock in profits?
Risk: 60 bps
Profit Protection: 3-Day Trailing Stop Rule (Peter Brandt)
You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money ~Mark Douglas
Anything can happen ~Mark Douglas
Continuous Corn - WeeklyContinuous Corn - Weekly: **The big red bar down this week is a bit exaggerated as this chart has rolled to chart against the Sep with a 1.20+ inverse. Nonetheless, corn is still down .50 +/- for the week. The 6.16 low hit the trendline, time will tell if this holds. Should we see a bounce from here the first test will be at 7.05 to 7.20. Primary targeted area at 7.72 to 8.00. Extended potential above 8.24 at the 8.50 area. IMO, we will need the reality of production cuts to see new highs, not just a weather forecast.
Corn: Pitch forks at playContinuous Corn – Weekly: Up trending vs Down trending Pitchforks – Continued from 6/2/22…
Up until two weeks ago it appeared that cash corn was going to follow the green bars up with the up trending pitchfork. The July/Sep inverse was a big challenge and the move lower just killed the chance for the continuous chart to maintain upward momentum. Currently the Sep corn leading the continuous chart and is looking for support against the median line in the 6.00 to 6.08 area. If we can catch a bounce look for resistance against the lower level blue line up into the upper level red line. Retracements in the 7.00 to 7.50 area will match up against the pitchfork resistance zones.
Below the median line offers support around the 5.45 area
Weat Continues Lower Wheat
Technicals (September): September wheat futures continued their descent yesterday, breaking and closing below the 200-day moving average for the first time in this contract's lifetime (September 2022 futures). This opens the door for a drop down near 800 which is where the market started accelerating to the upside during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Market moves like this often overshoot breakout points, so a trade with the $7 handle in the near future wouldn’t be out of the question. Resistance above the 200-day moving average (901 ½) doesn’t come in until closer to 960.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 960-970***, 1028 ¼-1037 ½****
Pivot: 898 ½-903
Support: 839-849**, 800***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Trade Lower After a Bullish USDA ReportSoybeans
Technicals (August): Yesterday’s USDA report put some pep in soybeans step right out of the gat, launching prices all they way up to technical resistance near $16.00. This is obviously a psychologically significant level, but it also represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, along with the breakdown point from June 22nd. Despite the friendly report, the market couldn’t sustain the strength which led to long liquidation at the end of month/quarter. That failure has led to weakness in the overnight and early morning session. The market has retreaded back near our pivot pocket overnight, we’ve had that labeled in previous reports as 1533 ½. The Bulls need to defend this to prevent a further decline and retest of the June 24th lows, 1494 ¾. Below that is the 200-day moving average, 1456.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597***
Pivot: 1533 ½
Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COFFEE Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
COFFEE broke a local rising support
Then went down and is now back up
To retest the broken line which became a resistance
And I am expecting a local pullback
Towards the target below
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!
Wheat Futures Stage a Recovery Rally
Wheat
Technicals: Wheat futures are attempting to rebound back towards our resistance pocket, 960-970, previously this was support. If the Bulls cannot achieve a conviction close back above this pocket, we could see the selling pick back up. With that said, a breakout and close above here could spark a wave of short covering, with little significant resistance until about 1030.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 960-970***, 1028 ¼-1037 ½****
Support: 898 ½-903****, 839-849***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Rally Back to the Scene of the CrimeSoybeans
Fundamentals: All eyes will be on tomorrow’s USDA report. The range of estimates for planted acres is 89.2-92.4 million, the USDA was at 91.0 in March. The average estimate for US soybean ending stocks as of June 1 is .954 billion bushels. Last year at this time we were at .769.
Technicals (August): The market has rallied back to our resistance pocket, which we labeled in yesterday’s report as 1560-1566. This pocket represents the secondary breakdown point from last week. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see a further extension take us into the mid 1590’2, which is the original scene of the crime, aka breakdown point from June 22nd. This would also be near a psychologically significant level, 1600. If these levels can hold, they would mark lower highs. We would be looking at bearish positioning at these levels if they can hold.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597***
Pivot: 1533 ½
Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1451*
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat Futures Start to Stabilize Wheat
Techncials (September): The market has been in free fall for the last week after breaking below the low end of the range and the 100-day moving average. The market is trying to find its footing in the early morning trade, but the Bulls have their work cut out for them to repair the immense amount of technical damage that has been done since breaking down. The first hurdle come in from 960-970. Consecutive closes above there could spur prices to retrace the “scene of the crime” aka the breakdown point from last week, which is well above the market. On the support side of things, 898 ½-903 is the first pocket. This represents previously important price points and the 200-day moving average. A break and close below this pocket and we could see the selling accelerate yet again.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 960-970***, 1028 ¼-1037 ½****
Support: 898 ½-903****, 839-849***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Find Their Footing
Soybeans
Fundamentals: Soybean futures are higher this morning after yesterday’s crop progress report showed a drop in good/excellent conditions of 3%. Keep in mind that we are still 5% better than where we were at this time last year. All eyes will be on Thursday’s USDA report. The range of estimates for planted acres is 89.2-92.4 million, the USDA was at 91.0 in March. The average estimate for US soybean ending stocks as of June 1 is .954 billion bushels. Last year at this time we were at .769.
Technicals (August): Soybeans are higher this morning as the market works to retrace and recoup the losses from the big down day last week. In yesterday’s report we talked about our pivot pocket at 1533 ½, stating “If the Bulls are able to chew through this level, we could see a bigger relief rally take us back to the other breakdown points from last week, which are anywhere from 30 to 70 cents higher.”. With that in mind, we would not be surprised to see additional relief come into the market ahead of the USDA report on Thursday.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597***
Pivot: 1533 ½
Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1451*
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Importance of resistance and long-term chartsI just had to pop this chart on here this morning – it is the CBOT monthly wheat chart. It demonstrates that no matter what your time frame that it is important to look at long term charts and it also demonstrates the importance of resistance.
There are two resistance points to mention on here – the first is the 1349 2008 high and the second is the shallow parallel line I have drawn, which connects the 1977 low and the 2000 low. I shifted this line up to connect to the 1349 2008 high and this provided resistance at 1373. The market tested these twin perils in March and failed miserably. The mid-point of this range is about 810 and this where I suspect the market will head.
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Corn spreadsContinuous Charts: Top – Front month to next deferred month Spread Underneath is Front Month continuous
Rule 1: Carry spreads have limits, Inverse spreads have no limits…
In the past 25-30 years we have seen 6 very strong inverted markets. Each inverted market lasted between 3-6 months and often times carried a bullish market reaction. When the inverse disappears, usually the corn market loses it’s bullish strength… None of the above inverses lasted past September. So on one hand history is strong to say that Dec/March spreads should be safe to hold some carry. But on the other hand, inverses have no rules. Risk-Reward: Don’t look to be a hero on Dec/March spreads, waiting to pick up another .05 - .07 of carry may not be worth the risk when there seems to be potential for .20 to 1.00 inverses on the table.
Wheat Heading back to $700-800 range, supply surpassed demandWheat Heading back to $700-800 range, supply has now surpassed the demand.
Ukraine is now shipping wheat from Moldova and shipping out via train etc
Russia is supplying Ukraine wheat from Mauripol
Russia is supplying wheat to Bandladesh and a number of African countries
Australia has had 20% bumper record crop being on the top 3 wheat producers
Price will go back to normal now it has almost been 6 months since the war has started