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Agricultural Commodities

Wheat Futures ( ZC1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1196'4 Pivot: 1154'2 Support : 1132'6 Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot of 1154'2 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and and 78.6% Fibonacci project. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support in line with the pullback support. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuatioType : Bearish Continuation Resistance : 1622'6 Pivot: 1611'2 Support : 1581'0 Preferred Case: With price expected to reverse off the ichimoku resistance and Fibonacci confluence area, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support in line with the horizontal swing low support from our pivot of 1611'0 in line with the Fibonacci confluence area. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
CANE - Fertilizer Shortage TradeIt's a Brave New World. Fertilizer was facing a shortage going into 2022 (like most commodities, it has had a undersized amount of investment, with tech seeing most of the in flows) but after the Putin YOLO (that's my ELI5), potash is now in shortage. Using that fact as a basis for expanding my commodity thesis to include more food commodities. I picked CANE because of the chart. Sugar has not caught bids like soy and corn and it's chart is a screaming buy. Before smashing the market buy button like an ape, watch the long standing resistance level we are at right now. This resistance has held since 2017 so this is a critical level. I am expecting a retest at the 9.75 level where I will be looking at the volume response. I'm so itchy to buy that I might buy regardless of response, the tailwinds are simply too strong to ignore. It is taking a great deal of restraint to wait for a response but since it is such a vital level and I want the best entry possible, patience and watching volume response is the name of the game. I will update with entry price. Happy hunting, Good luck, and God speed.
AMEX:CANELong
by SloppySeconds
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuatioType : Bearish Continuation Resistance : 1622'6 Pivot: 1611'2 Support : 1581'0 Preferred Case: With price expected to reverse off the ichimoku resistance and Fibonacci confluence area, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support in line with the horizontal swing low support from our pivot of 1611'0 in line with the Fibonacci confluence area. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise Resistance 1132'6 Pivot: 1106'4 Support : 1084'4 Preferred Case: With price breaking above the ichimoku cloud and making a new high on the donchian channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 100% Fibonacci projection from our pivot in line with the pullback support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv
🍭Sugar fever! Top of the trend ?● Sugar #11 - ICE (SB.F) 🕐 TF: 30D Fig.1 USX lb (pound) In Figure 1 , you can see the wave count from January 2021 . A continuation of the upward correction Ⓑ with the target zone 18.04-21.27 was predicted. At the moment, the set goal has been achieved, the corrective wave looks completed. The probability of resuming the decline by the final impulse Ⓒ of e of (IV) is high. _______________________________________ ● SUGARUSD - OANDA 🕐 TF: 1D Fig.2 An alternative wave count is marked in black, in which the minimum of 2020 , the level of 0.9051 , corresponds to the top of the supercycle (IV) . This counting option will become more relevant if the subsequent series of ascending zigzags, which at this stage is marked as (W)-(X)-(Y) of Ⓑ , takes the form of a diagonal . _______________________________________ ● SUGARUSD - OANDA 🕐 TF: 4h Fig.3 Provided that waves (1)-(2) are formed as part of the emerging bearish trend, the first of which goes beyond the top (X) and consolidates under the lower border of the rising channel, there will be a good prospect for a short position. _______________________________________ ❗ Disclaimer: — The owner of the TradeWaves-EWA © community is not responsible and has no direct or indirect obligations to the User/Customer in connection with any possible losses or financial damages related to any content of this community.
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by TradeWaves-EWA
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuatioType : Bearish Continuation Resistance : 1622'6 Pivot: 1611'2 Support : 1581'0 Preferred Case: With the ichimoku indicating some bearish momentum, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support in line with the swing low support at 1581'0 from our pivot of 1611'2 in line with the 38.2%, 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise Resistance 1132'6 Pivot: 1084'2 Support : 1068'2 Preferred Case: With price bouncing off the ichimoku cloud support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot in line with the horizontal swing low support and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise Resistance 1143'0 Pivot: 1123'0 Support : 1105'2 Preferred Case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from our pivot in line with the horizontal pullback support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance : 11122'2 Pivot: 1105'2 Support : 1080'4 Preferred Case: With the MACD indicating some bearish momentum, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback support from our pivot of 1105'2 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Genesiv
THREAD #3 : Commodities Update ‼️I know it took time to get this thread update, I'm sorry for that, but here it is ! ▶️ How it works ? Ask me in comment my chart analysis of the asset you want if it didn't have already done under. If I find something intersting to say and show, I will update the idea with it. A comment of each asset expose will be post under, come react about it or debate. ▶️ Before to start I want to remind that we are in a period of conflict and news can emerge at any moment with strong effect and reaction on market. So invest carefully on this hard times and reduce your loss exposition on market when you can. Don't forget to take profit too. CRUDE OIL ✅ One of my perspectives in the last update was to see price going to the A line before to fall back rapidly, we falled but we can see we stopped just before the resistance. Precision of the market is remarquable so I keep this target in mind to get reach it in the future. For the moment we can expect a return on the 2b line, constructing a channel, even if the exact channel would be to target 3b but it can be an exageration of the market. Like each commodities update, I remind that it's a highly manipulated asset so, or stay away of it, or be very careful of your loss exposure. GOLD ✅ "The chart don't have change since the commodities update of the 20th of January. We are coming to the end of the bull scenario. I invit to take profits on the conjoncture of the resistance area and the (2c) resistance. There is no interest to sell a refuge asset like gold, even more in this time of conflict. So if there is selling signals take it like an opportunity to buy it lower. Especially here, we will wait for buying signals on the (1b) or (1a) support and the best case would be the support area of $1,700 - $1,675 but far from now." This was my exact words two months ago, I think there is nothing to add because it's exactly what is happenning. We've seen a buying pressure on (1b) but without buying volume, so no reason to buy, now we are going for the next area : the (1a) support. Wait signals, if there isn't on (1a), wait the support. SILVER ✅ Like for the gold : "I don't expect a breakout of (1b) and the resistance area, so for me we will see the construction of a range between them around $27 and $29. The biggest probability for me is a bull outcome of the range to target the (1c) resistance (scenario A) and probably more after. If we reject the resistance strongly after lateralization I expect price to go deeply retest the (1a) support around $20." Very close again from the reality, in fact, we ranged (2$ lower from my expectations). Unfortunetly we didn't got the bull outcome and strongly rejected on supply. Like expected a deep retest to the supports. Speaking of now, the close of tonight is really important cause we broke the 2b support and reacted with buying pressure on support area. If we close tonight back inside the channel (upper of (2b)), we could expect a reintegration and so with buying volume tomorrow, a confirmation of it. Else we could expect a simple pullback on the broken support (which mean short opportunities on lower timeframe) to go back lower to the expected bear scenario of 2 month ago, the $20 area. Furthermore we can see a stop hunt pattern taking place on support, nice setup to see climax. COPPER ✅ Copper have been one of the assets that I most spoke. Because of the Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern we had, and which brought signals and targets. The last update was the failed SOS, closing the long position because of the expectation to see a pullback to the support. In fact we are going for it, we are always in between so expectations didn't changed. We will see on support if we have long signals to exploit. Maybe we could build a bigger Wyckoff pattern (reaccumulation or distribution), in this case it would be really interesting because we could exploit as long and short signals around, respectively, support and resistance. PLATINUM ✅ Very similar as silver we can observe the sames patterns, sames signals. So no much things to add, if we reintegrate we can exploit pullback on (2b), else we wait opportunity given by stop hunt to take a deeper position around $840 or $760. PALLADIUM ✅ "We made an SOS which has also failed. So technically, the biggest probability is to see it go down on the (2b) line in a first time (scenario A) maybe more with (1a) before to retest the resistance (1b)." Nothing more to add again, the plan continue to go in the right way. We are ranging around (2b), no signal for the moment so we can expect a continuation to (1a) (SCENARIO A) but it's important to stay aware about the possibility to see a Wyckoff acummulation here (SCENARIO B), no signal of it for the moment. WHEAT & CORN ✅ The master word on the last update on wheat was to take profit on ATH because of the expectation of a strong selling pressure like oil, in fact it happened. We already made half of the job to go back to the last resistance being broke. Wait signals around here to target a retest of ATH. Else each broken resistance become a nice spot to target entry. Corn is similar to it. For both, with the macroeconomic context we can expect retests of ATH. In all case stay careful, it stay heavily influenced by the macroeconomic dynamics so from news also. SUGAR ✅ A nice way to finish is to speak from the plan we had in the last update and which succeed ! We had a Wyckoff Reaccumulation Pattern, it was EXACTLY the same setup as the one on the copper which also succeed. The spot to survey was the pullback on the creek, entry signal was perfect on H4 timeframe. Target on 2:1 ratio, then second target on resistance level, then exit because of the failed SOS. It was a nice setup shared it and I'm happy of that. Let's speak of future expectation now, it's really close to the copper analysis. We will see if we could build a bigger pattern, in this case everything is exploitable ON SIGNALS always! Furthermore we stay in a monthly interest area where as Wyckoff Reaccumulation and Wyckoff Distrubution pattern could bring to a big movement. So it will be an asset to look closely on in the future. 🛑"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"🛑 👉 Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! *Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
NYMEX:CL1!
by Kentg
18
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 1105'2 Pivot: 1081'4 Support : 1065 Preferred Case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud and and the recent break of the descending trendline which signifies bullish momentum, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 1105'2 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and swing high resistance from our pivot of 1081'4 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1065 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal pullback support. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1674 Pivot: 1662'6 Support : 1644 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1662'6 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1644 which is in line with the horizontal pullback support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1674 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bearish dip!Type : Bearish drop Resistance : 1105'2 Pivot: 1080'2 Support : 1042'4 Preferred Case: With price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1080'2 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1042'4 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1105'2 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1662'6 Pivot: 1653'4 Support : 1626'2 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1653'4 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1626'2 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1662'6 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv