WHEATTREND IS DOWNWARD
Possible to sell
ratio 1:3
No need to care about other indicators such as RSI, MACD, MA, Stochastic.....
Agricultural Commodities
Daily Grain Futures Volatility Forecast 26 May 22 ZS ZC ZW WHEAT ZW 26 May 2022
The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 4.17%
In this case, our channel for today is going to be
TOP 1180
BOT 1085
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CORN ZC 26 May 2022
The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 2.41%
In this case, our channel for today is going to be
TOP 781
BOT 744
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SOYBEAN ZS 26 May 2022
The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 2%
In this case, our channel for today is going to be
TOP 1709
BOT 1641
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Time to think out of the box 💡INVESTMENT CONTEXT
Equities failed to sustain May 23 uptick, with bears firmly in control of the market sending Nasdaq in the low 11k bracket
U.S. retailer Best Buy (BBY) missed EPS forecasts, but downplayed recession fears
S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of the services and manufacturing industries, fell to 51.8 in May, its lowest level since February 2021; meanwhile, new home sales in the U.S. fell 26.9% on a yearly basis
At Davos, Davos, George Soros remarked that “Indeed, the Russian invasion may turn out to be the beginning of World War III, and our civilization may not survive it“
After taking a leading role in Netflix (NFLX) one-day 30% slump, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman tweeted "Inflation is out of control (...) Markets are imploding because investors are not confident that the (Fed) will stop inflation. If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job"
PROFZERO'S TAKE
Tensions in Ukraine remain high after Russia's capture of the port-city of Mariupol. As EU's resolve is being tested by the concerns of some member States (Hungary in particular) on energy security, analysts see the conflict in Donbas dragging in a protracted war of attrition. ProfZero hasn't failed to notice the regained momentum of RUB in the wake of the growing fringe of European energy companies bowing to Moscow's request of supplies being paid in its own currency - yet the catch 22 is becoming thornier by the hour now that soft commodities vehemently entered the picture, escalating the crisis to a global level
Russia may in fact be nearing default, as the U.S. Treasury Department said it would end as of May 25 a waiver that allowed Russia’s central bank to process payments to bondholders in USD through U.S. and international banks, on a case-by-case basis. The first tranche of interest on debt is scheduled for May 27, when EUR 100mln are due on two bonds. ProfZero has long been reporting the eventual default of Russia as a further aggravating catalyst to the overall macro scenario - now that the moment of truth nears, ripples from the eventual default also must be accounted for, starting from the consequences to soft commodities
Buffett binging on U.S. equities while Soros calling the possible end of our civilization. Coincidence? As much as Bill Ackman, ProfZero only believes in the inescapable, cold efficiency of the market. Greed has all it takes to eat inflation's lunch
ProfZero is starting to feel uneasy about the prolonged range-bound trading pattern drawn by BTC. Whilst impressed by the resilience of the entire blockchain space to the broader turmoil, and even more so by the rebound after LUNA's demise, ProfZero argues the current trading structure conjures fears of sudden, major drops should bears launch a short attack on the segment (much akin to the meltdown on April 29)
Starbucks (SBUX) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the US company Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) at daily chart. Starbucks Corporation is an American multinational chain of coffeehouses and roastery reserves headquartered in Seattle, Washington. It is the world's largest coffeehouse chain. As of November 2021, the company had 33,833 stores in 80 countries, 15,444 of which were located in the United States. Out of Starbucks' U.S.-based stores, over 8,900 are company-operated, while the remainder are licensed. The Triangle has broken through the resistance line on 21/05/2022, if the price holds above this level you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 4 days towards 79.10 USD. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 70.36 USD if you decide to enter this position.
After 15 years in the country, Starbucks announced it was exiting Russia. Starbucks to close 130 stores in Russia, unionization push expands to over 260 U.S. stores. n addition, as a result of its exit from Russia, the fast food giant said it expected to record a charge of approximately $1.2 to 1.4 billion to write off its net investment in the market and recognize significant foreign currency translation losses.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 1734
Pivot: 1702
Support : 1687
Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1734 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from our pivot of 1702 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1687 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: No Major News
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 1702'6
Pivot: 1684'0
Support : 1661'4
Preferred Case: With price being above our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1702'6 in line with the swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci projection from our pivot of 1684'0 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1661'4 in line with the horizontal overlap support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection .
Fundamentals: No Major News
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 1702'6
Pivot: 1692'6
Support : 1687'4
Preferred Case: With price being above our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1702'6 in line with the swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci projection from our pivot of 1692'6 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1687'4 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: No Major News
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Cattle, Corn, S&P500Cattle, Corn, and S&P 500: The fundamentals may be different now compared to in 2008, but I think these 3 markets are well intertwined. The effect of a major drawdown in the equities could impact all markets for a time. It sure seems that Cattle have some strong fundamentals to make a run up as it did from 2010 to 2014, but the timing of when that potential run higher begins is a million-dollar question. If the equity markets find support, beef should be in the race to higher levels with energies and other commodities…. If equities crash further, be careful
Volatility 19 May 22 Grains Commodities Futures CORN ZC Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5612 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.59%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.99%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 15.48
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 85% probability for today are going to be
TOP 797.5
BOT 766.5
WHEAT ZW Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5600 candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.84%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 3.55%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 43.13
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1265.34
BOT 1178.65
SOYBEAN ZS Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5600 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.19%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.49%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 24.82
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1688.5
BOT 1639
OAT ZO Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5600 candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.43%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 3.04%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 19.56
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be
TOP 664.35
BOT 625.15
COCOA CC Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5615 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.46%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.82%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 44.98
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 85% probability for today are going to be
TOP 2550.62
BOT 2459.4
COTTON CT Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5615 candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.24%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 2.8%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 4
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 85% probability for today are going to be
TOP 148.5
BOT 140.5
COFFEE KC Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5615 candles our expected volatility for today is around 2.94%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 3.67%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 7.92
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 83% probability for today are going to be
TOP 226
BOT 210
WHEAT CONTINUES RALLY2022 is not a typical year for the WHEAT. Not only it is a staple food for a big portion of the population, but after the beginning of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, the supply of the commodity in Europe and other parts of the world is less than secure. It is expected Russia to use the wheat as a political weapon against countries that oppose its actions.
That combined with the inflation the world is currently experiencing can suggest that the price of the commodity will keep rising.
Both MACD and RSI are confirming the continuation of the bullish trend. If the rally continues, the price will test its previous high at 1347.19 USD. On the other hand, if predictions do not come to fruition and rally reverses, the price will first test its gap level at 1187.97 and then eventually its previous support at 1028.44
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Corn and commitment of traders The market is not looking to find “Fair Value” in this current “Fear Driven” Market. Any thoughts on upside and downside risk above and/or below current prices should be considered…
The fundamentals to support a bullish market remain in place for this corn market. I still believe the job of this market is to see prices high enough to ration demand. A narrow focus on crush, feed, and export demand could argue that price has not rationed demand just yet. I would not discount a potential run up to 9.50 or even 11.00.
But other signals could be telling of demand rationing already. The strong dollar may not ration immediate demand, but it will ration future demand. Remember, this is a Futures Market. No chart attached - but the selloff across the equity markets needs to be monitored. Retail and fund investors have been more speculative into the current stock market and maintained highly leveraged (margined) positions. A continued sell off in equities could cause a major liquidity drain across all tradeable markets. Large Spec Fund’s may reduce their position out of the commodity space for some time. This will ration Paper demand….
Corn – Monthly Continuous: Competing with all time highs.
Commercial Longs (blue): Mostly End users hedged corn, bought to protect margins. Currently more than 200k less contracts compared to this same time last year with a market that is almost a dollar higher (Divergence). But, currently in line with previous years. I am surprised they are not as excited this year to hold more long positions. If they do get excited, I assume that will cause the next strong run up.
Commercial Shorts (yellow): Mostly elevators hedged corn bought from producer. Currently just over 1m short positions held. In line with 18’ and 19’ seasonal positions. Typically, a seasonal position between 800k and 1m shorts held by the commercials represents enough Natural selling to settle down the Corn Market. The commercial elevators appear to own a significant amount of corn. Is end user basis strong enough, and is the July/Sep inverse strong enough to move elevator owned bushels yet???
** In theory elevators are Shorts and end users are Longs. But in this strong demand driven inverted market I expect there to be spread positions placed from both sides to add another layer of protection. All this just makes for a more challenging market when positions are lifted and can self feed a trend regardless of fundamentals and technicals **
Commercial Net (Green): The spread between the Shorts and the Longs (-400k) is not as much in favor of the shorts compared to last year, but still at a historically strong level. (Divergence) A seasonal turn in net positions usually indicates a top is near.
Large Spec Funds (red): In a long and strong position, but again, not as strong as last year (Divergence). In most cases I believe the commercials drive the market more than the funds. The funds like to ride the wave. Combined, the Commercials can hold 1.5m to 2.0m contracts. The funds peak out just under 500k contracts… With that said they can still have a major influence on the market, especially when open interest is low.
Open Interest: Currently at elevated levels compared to the 2011’-2017’ market, but well-off last year’s levels. Enough liquidity in a normalized market, but in a $7-$9 market expect high volatility and deep ranges/corrections….
US Dollar (Orange): Commodity markets struggle to stay strong for a long period of time when the Dollar is above 100.00.
COFFEE KC Supply And Demand AnalysisSee picture for analysis
Evidence for Longs
Pros:
1) bullish with inflation
2) food shortages
3) potential storms going into summer which might kill coffee beans.
4) Trend = Uptrend so any longs will be trending.
Cons:
1) Price below + reacting off of the 200MA
2) hard to scalp on lower timeframes + commissions/ swaps can be high.
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise
Resistance 1281'6
Pivot: 1240'6
Support : 1216'4
Preferred Case: With price above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1281'6 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot at 1240'6 in line with the horizontal swing low support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1216'4 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support.
Fundamentals: No Major News
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Wheat prices are soaring higher and here is why:As of now wheat was in bull rally, updating new ATH's, since the start of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Russia and Ukraine control over 30% of world wheat exports and now Ukraine can't export it's wheat because of navy blockade, and Russia tightens it's wheat export policies planning to use it as a weapon against unfriendly countries later.
A couple months ago India announced that it will replace Ukraine and Russia with it's own exports, however Mother Nature didn't like those plans as India soon got hit by anomalous heatwave of 40-45 degrees across whole country. Those, On 14th of May India banned wheat exports as crop predictions got considerably lower.
European Wheat futures already updated All-time highs, trading above 430€ and I don't think we are ever close to reaching reversal.
From technical standpoint we see triangle and we need to see longer accumulation before breaking current all-time high.
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Wheat is soaring higher and will continue to grow. Here's why:As of now wheat was in bull rally, updating new ATH's, since the start of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Russia and Ukraine control over 30% of world wheat exports and now Ukraine can't export it's wheat because of navy blockade, and Russia tightens it's wheat export policies planning to use it as a weapon against unfriendly countries later.
A couple months ago India announced that it will replace Ukraine and Russia with it's own exports, however Mother Nature didn't like those plans as India soon got hit by anomalous heatwave of 40-45 degrees across whole country. Those, On 14th of May India banned wheat exports as crop predictions got considerably lower.
European Wheat futures already updated All-time highs, trading above 430€ and I don't think we are ever close to reaching reversal.
From technical standpoint we see triangle and we need more accumulation before breaking current all-time high.
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
What’s brewing with coffee futures?Like most commodities, London coffee futures saw a massive price uptrend in 2021. However, since the beginning of 2022, it's finally cooled off to an eight and half month low. As a silver lining, perhaps more interesting price action is currently heading our way.
With a very sharp fall during the last two weeks of February it's since consolidated, trading between $2,000 and $2,200 per metric tonne. As of writing, London robusta coffee futures (LRC) are trading at $2,099 per metric tonne.
For London coffee futures, May is typically a ranging month with price starting to pick up towards the second half of June. More often than not, highs of the year are made during the June and July months. However, seasonal trends will be butting up against the possibility that coffee prices are still overextended from 2021’s price hike.
Where could coffee prices reasonably head?
Looking at the daily chart with the Awesome Oscillator indicator, we can see some slight divergence. In spite of its undescriptive name, the Awesome Oscillator details trends and shifts in momentum. On the chart above, can see that the indicator is showing signs of a shifting momentum since the first week of March. With price consolidating, the indicator has slowly crept back up to its zero line, failing to keep correlation to the actual price and trend of the price chart. This could be a suggestion that price may make its way towards June and July highs. If so, the bigger question is if it will actually create the yearly high as well before making its way back down.
In respect to fundamentals, it has been noted that Brazil is currently harvesting a record setting yield of robusta coffee beans. However, the risk of frost hitting Brazil’s crop might not have been priced into its current trading price.
Start trading coffee futures with live and demo accounts today
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 225.40
Pivot: 221.95
Support : 219.75
Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 225.40 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot of 221.95 in line with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 219.75 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: No Major News
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
May 15, 22 Wheat time for a Buy?So I put a Buy Order in at 1050 on Friday and it closed a little above that . We shall see this week if the trend continues up or not.
I'm thinking it could finish off around 1300 this week before the long weekend. I'm thinking that will be my TP - 1300.
Also, the AO indicator ended on a Green note so that's good - hoping it will continue to go up :-)
I'll keep you updated as the week progresses.
Heiko
Bread - Grilled Cheese Wheat has been en Fuego... contributing to my ancient grain
Bagels now cost $24 a dozen.
Dave's Bread... $7.29 a loaf for 21 Grains.
Lovely, nothing to see here, brad lines perhaps are lining up.
______________________________________________________
Perhaps when it hits $10...
For now, the Global Supplies of Grains is at near historic lows.
CORN FUTURES Swing Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CORN has reached a massive horizontal resistance
Which happens to be an all time high for the commodity
And so we are already seeing a bearish reaction
Which I think will continue and the price
Will retest the local support below
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
clean short1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
Mar 12 22-Wheat Buy? Will it go to ATH?So is it time to buy? Wheat ended going on a tear today - straight up!!
Question is .... for all of you who didn't get in on the profits today, do you get in now and go long? Or do you wait for a Sell Signal and go short?
Hard to say - I did make some money today going long, but I TP wayyyyy too early. Anyway, now I'm in the same boat as you guys - get in now or wait?
Went up 100 points at the evening open - I shoulda put in a Buy Order right away - missed that one too.
Thoughts anyone?
Heiko
