Weekly Levels Strategies: Support/Resistance Crypto, Stocks, etcBitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and cryptocurrencies as a whole are caught in consolidation where a breakout to either side will define the trend. Stock market indexes of S&P 500 and Nasdaq have given a bullish signal but where will that change? Commodities like oil, wheat, and corn are ripping. Gold and Silver are giving bullish breakout signals. Tech stocks are teetering on edge while defensive plays like utility stocks are rising.
Agricultural Commodities
CORN SHORTS 📉📉📉The same view on CORN as on WHEAT chart, we have a nice bullish market strucutre but looks like price is very exhausted and right now we should see a corrective movement down ito 700/600, we have a lot of bullish gaps on it's way and price should retrace to fill those.
On a long-term perspective i am still bullish based on the fundamental context.
What do you think ? ..
WHEAT SHORTS 📉📉📉This week i expect bearish short move on WHEAT as price finished its impulsive movement on the bullish market strucutre, price made a lot of bullish gaps on its way to the current price meaning it will go lower soon to fill those gaps.
On a long-term basis i am still bullish and i will look for LONGS once retracement ends, this is kind of a risky counter-trend trade.
What do you think ?
WHEATUsing just the Price/Trend indicator on its own, we would have made +40% - we had 2 opportunities to BUY on 4H - however we slept on this as we were too busy trading Crypto to remember that Ukraine is one of the biggest Wheat producers!
Interesting to see where it will fall - Sell the News ...
Where's the Rice. Rice is an integral part of life in many countries, particularly the ASEAN region. It also plays a key role in the economies in the some of world's most populated regions. Countries like Malaysia have seen annual growth in exports of 6.3% annually over the last decade. Rice exporting leaders in the region, Thailand and Vietnam, have also maintained small growth in exports. Statistics show that the consumption of rice within the ASEAN region is also increasing. According to Ricepedia, 640 million tons of rice is grown in Asia, 90% of the global supply.
In 2010/2011 China imported 540,000 metric tons and exported 500,000 metric tons of rice. Ten years later imports swelled to 800,000 metric tons while exports doubled to 100,800 metric tons of rice.
I think getting invested in rice after its next big dip, whenever that is, may be a good idea.
Being interested in the business of food I wanted to have a look at how Rice's price action has looked in years past. I did a little bit of wave analysis here. Let me know where you think we are.
I drew the weekly Fib range retracement and found that a good trade on the larger time frame has taken place with the optimal entry fibs hit and target met.
To get a better understanding of how price moved in the past I noted key Market Structure Breaks on this chart here. They help me find potential OBs and FVGs and potential areas of confluence.
Here is the same wave count but shown on the weekly time frame.
Overall I'm interested in the food sector as an area of investment. Rice was one of the first things that came to mind. Looking forward to doing more research on this.
Let me know what you think!
Corn ( ZC1!) , H4 Potential bullish continuationType : Bullish continuation
Resistance : 793'6
Pivot: 719'4
Support : 659'0
Preferred Case: On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 719'4 in line with horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 760'0 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension . Our bullish bias is supported by how price is moving above the ichimoku cloud .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 659'0 in line with the horizontal swing low support.
Fundamentals: No major news event.
Soy Beans Futures(ZS1!), H4 Potential Bullish continuation Type : Bullish continuation
Resistance : 1747'2
Pivot: 1656'0
Support : 1625'6
Preferred Case: On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 1656'0 in line with horizontal overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 1747'2 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by how price is moving above the ichimoku cloud .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 1625'6 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Fundamentals: No major news event.
WHEAT LONG-TERM LONGS 📉📉📉📈 I just wanted to share with you the reason behind the big bullish move on WHEAT, Ukraine is the country that exports the most wheat in the Europe so the price will rise because of the supply damage. Also as we are in a RISK OFF market sentiment investors tend to buy this asset as they are thinking about PROTECTION both on money and themselves. I think we will see wheat way above 1200-1300$ if the military conflict it will continue. From a technical perspective we are in a clear bullish market structure as price keeps printing higher highs and higher lows
What do you think ?
When technicals fail, revert back to fundamentalsWheat has been trending upwards with a channel/megaphone pattern so far. The prices were increasing rapidly and near the channel boundary, it exploded. When it could end up is very questionable but it's not hard to understand the recent price increase is purely based on fear.
Ukraine and Russia contribute to a total of about 26% to the Wheat market, even if we assume they completely vanished, it's only reasonable to guess the price should not go more than 26% from the upper channel boundary. But the markets are not rational, and during conflicting and desperate times it may increase up to 50% to the maximum wheat price recorded ever. I hope this would not happen because what happened later was the global financial crisis, and history could very well be repeated.
If you have access to options, buy some puts on wheat. When markets settle the price will crash spectacularly and you can sit with a lot of cash.
Do not short a parabolic market unless you have a lot of money. Buy puts on the parabolic market because all curves become lines in trades. Every parabolic move is short-lived.
🌾CORN - BitCorn is Back🌽🌮🍿Last year we bought because of inflation.
This year things are even more serious, there is a war between Russia and Ukraine.
Column: Concerns rise over Black Sea spring crops amid Russia-Ukraine war: www.reuters.com
Looks like Fajitas and Tacos🌮, Kellogs frosties 🐯 and other cereal , corn on the cob 🌽, even go ''pop'' in the cinema🍿 might become expensier. On a more serious note, poverty will hit some and food will become a luxury for some.
Sad but true. Scary...
May logic prevail,
the FXPROFESSOR 🌾
Soy Beans Futures (ZS1!), H4 Bullish Continuation.On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 1651'2 in line with horizontal overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 1739'0 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 1582'6 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Our bullsh bias is supported by how price is moving above the ichimoku cloud.
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Feb 28, 22 Soybean Update-Sell DelayedSo my original prediction of a Soybean Sell Order is certainly delayed for a few weeks and maybe even a month or two. As you can see from the monthly chart, we are on our way to levels not seen since 2012, almost 18!!
We did have a couple days of some dramatic fall in price, but then right back up again. So I will delete my original Sell order and wait for a top sometime over the next month hopefully and sell then.
Stay safe.
Heiko
Up, up and away!The coffee futures have broken today the bullish flag, and this derivate on coffee follows the coffee price accordingly. Maybe in the following days, a pullback is possible, reaching 3,71 or the vicinity of the broken trendline below.
According to the seasonality and inflation, I expect a general bullish trend in coffee until the end of the year. But buying this instrument and holding it until the end of the year could be difficult because of the volatility decay. Take care!
Wheat, Naturalgas, Brent, Coffee and Cotton vs BTCWheat, Naturalgas, Brent, Coffee and Cotton vs BTC in one chart, all long!
It's coffee time!See chart.
NOTE : The thing about charting is IT IS BASED on probability based on historical price actions and patterns. But the market is forward looking and to restrict oneself to say that if the price moves to A, then it would goes to B, then C is not only myopic but also underestimate the Market which is ever changing.
Price action could very well not touched the support line before retrace higher. Or price may not necessarily hit the 50% or 61.8% FIB level as precisely as we would like it to be. IT IS A GUIDE only.
When one trades on a larger time frame, then the short term price movements would matters less as you are concerned with the overall direction of the product you are trading.
I have find my heart beating way too fast and my emotions go haywire the time when I tried trading 15 minutes time frame or less. Sometimes, after keying in the order, I am already stopped out!! OUCH!!!
Leave this fast trading game to the experts who can make millions trading thousands of trades a day. They earn their marks through years of practice , I am sure.