Food shortages entering back into playThe playbook for manoeuvring - actively adding longs
We can start with a quick review of the general plan for the operation I shall be discussing. I imagine all sitting in longs from earlier in the year are ready to exploit greater freedom of movement which we we will posses a tick above August highs. So to seize the point, our attack is a momentum move, like a sailing boat when we get caught in the wind.
Eyeballing a test of first targets at 900 as early as the yearly close. As can be seen from above, it would be quite wrong to describe these moves here as anything but painful for consumers. Depending on the price action at 900 we are flirting to unlock the GFC highs. We are 23% and counting, time to start swinging the bat!
Agricultural Commodities
BTBD: Buy the bean dip?The world in general, and fertilizer prices in particular, are alleged to be going to Hell in a handcart. Infernal scenarios aside, a mean-reversion buy in soybeans off the bottom of the current trend channel could make sense. Beans have been a bit volatile lately, so watch this trade if you make it.
Wheat Completes Head and Shoulders Pattern, Target at 865Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 15 Min Chart.
There appears to be a completed head and shoulders price pattern on the commodity Wheat. The left shoulder is around the low of 750.38, the head made a low of 750.38 and the right shoulder made a low of 757. The pattern is not at its original designation however appears to be a positive sign nonetheless. The neckline stands at the 779.37 and 779.87 highs. The completion of this pattern takes the commodity towards current price levels at the time of publishing. Expectations are for the trend in the commodity to continue towards 865. A stop loss order has been placed at 766, below Wheat’s neckline.
The Point and Figure Chart corroborates this bullish view. There was a close above the short (30-MA) medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) moving averages. There has also been positive crossovers on these respective MAs. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is above 0 and green and the RSI is above 50. The chart indicates that Wheat can rally towards 860.
The Daily chart shows a breakout of 804 resistance. Closing above this level indicates a bullish move for the commodity.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 766 and a target of 865. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.73.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to Wheat.
Feb 23, 22 Soybean Sell UpdateSoybeans have been on a tear for over a month now. Apparently weather is to blame around the world. Too much rain in some countries and too little rain in others. China has just released tons of Soybean from their reserve supplies to help fill the growing gap.
Word is it's going to be Mid March at least before there could be any relief. By then, I believe my Alligator Indicator will almost be up there in my Sell Area of 1520.
Note the second wise man circle a few weeks back?? Usually, BUT NOT ALWAYS, indicates a possible sign of price reversal?? This is one of those times where price did not reverse and price just kept on going up. This is why we must trade with our 5 rules, always using good money management.
I will keep you updated - I'm hoping once price starts to fall, it will fall heavily so we can make some good money :-)
HEIKO
Technical Outlook for the Coffee Market, backed by fundamentals.Fundamentals: The coffee Market has been in a strong bullish trend ever since a frost hit the brazil coffee belt in July / August 2021, followed by a period of drought. This left the world´s biggest producer of Arabica coffee with huge productivity losses for the 2021/2022 crop. That results in a really tight Arabica balance sheet for 2022, which could get worse through re-openings of coffee-to-go shops after Covid-19 lockdowns. The tense global logistic situation with low vessel space, exploding freight rates and shortage of containers and truckers is fuel to the already burning fire of less coffee supply than demand.
What can be examined from this is, that roasters tap into certified coffee inventories drowning them to 10-year lows, an extremely bullish factor ever since.
Technicals: Prices stay in an uptrend channel, that can be divided into a major channel and two minor ones. The structure stayed between those two lines while completing several Elliott-Waves. After a new ABC correction from the 160,00 cts high, prices could start a new 5-Wave up to test the upper line of the major channel at ~175,50 cts. The certified inventories sliding below the magical number of 1 million bags would support this move.
Certified Coffee Inventory
bilderupload.org
Chart
The FED Roach InfestationMoney supply expansion is like roaches. It goes everywhere you don't want, and nobody can control it.
Plotted here is the money supply to futures ratio of soy, wheat, corn, and sugar. We have the potential to see a massive increase in food speculation, simply because it's not risky. When equities burst, the money goes anywhere it can. So we should expect a breakout here unless the fake money kicks back into gear.
KC Wheat Cont KC Wheat - Weekly: Some indecision the past few weeks with price action working above the Blue Tenkan and below the red Kijun lines. Upside targets remain at 8.75 to 8.92. A breakout above the 8.92 high has targets up to 9.84. Support is 7.43 with further retracements at 7.07 and 6.51.
March SoybeansMarch Soybeans - Daily: Trying to measure upside targets on beans seams futile on a daily scale….. But we try
From the May21’ Swing high at 14.45 to the Nov21 Swing low at 11.93, March22 Beans filled the recent target at 16.01. On the more precise scale on the right, we look at the consolidation before Monday’s gap higher to measure a primary target at 15.86 with targets up to 16.23 that were filled. From the continuous chart to the March bean chart, it appears there could be some measured resistance at 16.00 to 16.23. Above were looking at levels up to 16.73 to 17.00.
Support at 15.64 to 15.27 with Risk down a ways to 14.45.
Soybean marketSoybean – Weekly Cont: Price accelerated from the 50% retracement and resistance level at 14.24 up past the cloud and quickly filled the next primary target at 16.12. Last spring beans spent a few weeks above 15.75, but with light volume.
No telling if beans will chop around into a consolidation pattern to give us time to better guess a direction, or if it launches higher filling the targets above…
The candlestick formation left behind this week looks similar to the one left behind last year at the high. I am cautious for the next week or two and would be willing to look at short term protection
Corn Market **Please do not take this as a projection or extreme bullish stance. This Market is sensitive to major up and down moves that will eventually leave many surprised by the high and the low it will leave behind.
The quarterly chart shows extreme highs being made in the past 50 years.
The current Corn market shares some similarities with the 06’-08 and the 71’-73’ Markets.
Supply, Demand, and Inflationary driven Markets. Add emotionally driven as well….
• 71’-73’ Had the Russian Grain robbery and the US$ taken off the gold standard. I don’t know about production back then but the World demand and inflationary fears were very strong
• 06’-08’ Had new demand in US ethanol paired with a strong growing China economy hungry for US grains. The 07/08 housing crisis brought fears of inflation. I am unsure on production in those years.
• 20’-22’ Domestic and world demand is strong. There have been areas of production misses the past couple of years across major exporting nations, and Inflationary fears are elevated. Part of last year’s corn rally ending was due to rationing of corn for feed demand as Corn approached $7.00, Wheat still had a 5 in front of it. This year Wheat has been trading above $8. Major corn rallies of the past were preceded by strong Wheat rallies.
With similar ingredients to previous Major Bull rallies, I feel that potential upside on this market is extreme and unmeasurable. Because we never know for sure, I had Identified the 5.75+ area as a place to target old crop sales, with the 7.35 area the potential upside/resistance. But beyond that I feel that the 9.50 area should be considered for potential extreme upside.
Both of the previously identified markets rallied more than 200% of their 24 month low before cooling off. I do think it is fair to use rate of change as potential upside when dealing with inflationary type markets. Corn has never been to 9.50 before, but (twice in 50 years) it has seen a rate of change of 200%.
For New Crop Corn: I don’t know if there is anything we can do with this other than look more at courage calls, or to be more engaged with puts (with a roll up program). This is a monthly continuous chart that will be driven by old crop contracts. There could be a strong old crop/new crop inverse if this thing was to get excited the first 6 months of this year, but new crop contracts should perform well.
It is dangerous to put out charts showing such extreme levels, but I think it is prudent to shock test Margin callscenarios against such extreme levels.
**Down side support is 4.75-5.15, extreme Risk is 3.80 to 3.00.
Feb 10, 22 Soybean Sell Almost TimeYou can see that price action soared way above the Linear Regression Indicator this week and has been on a tear for many weeks just going to the moon. I am waiting for price action to finally come down - today it started but I'm not sure when I will short this trade. Next week will be the earliest but it might be March.
You can see this is the weekly chart so it might be a while before this becomes tradeable. Regardless, I am keeping an eye on this one and will let you know if anything changes.
HEIKO
SB1! (SUGAR) BULLISHSB1! (SUGAR) is bullish. We are going for the Intermediate 5th of Primary C of the cycle be. For now, the target area is roughly $23.43 to $$24.80 which is 50% and 61.8% of fibo. This is the commodity market and in a commodity market, the 5th wave can be extended. For now invalidation level is $17.60 which is the 4th wave for now.
DISCLOSURE - Please be informed that the information I provide is not a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of my work is for educational purposes only. All labeling and wave count have been done by me manually and I will keep changing according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So don't bias, hope on my trade plans. Try to learn Elliott Wave or other strategies and make your own strategy. Following is not that much easy. I am not responsible for any losses if u took the trade according to my trade plans.
#SB1! #SUGAR
COFF Long (+ I LOVE DRINKING COFFEE)LSE:COFF
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Soybeans ripped! Approaching monthly resistanceTook profits on my SOYB position for some nice gains considering a lot of downside in the equities market.
On a monthly time frame, SOYB is approaching resistance zone so I took profits and will be watching to see how price reacts here.
I'm expecting retracement / consolidation here before continuation to the upside or back down from profit takers and sellers stepping in.
Alert set at $26.5
May also be setting up for a good short opportunity
Coffee JO nice VCP Triangle breakoutsSome nice VCP / Saucer Handle patterns on JO as it continues to climb higher.
Watch for a break higher if it can chew through 67 zone resistance
Break lower out of triangle / trendline support invalidates long idea.
On a macro level we're seeing bullish setups in AG complex (coffee , rice, wheat, corn, soybeans, etc.) , coupled with inflation coffee should run.
Personally I've noticed my local coffee shops also charging $1 per cold brew which supports the bull case.