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Agricultural Commodities

When technicals fail, revert back to fundamentalsWheat has been trending upwards with a channel/megaphone pattern so far. The prices were increasing rapidly and near the channel boundary, it exploded. When it could end up is very questionable but it's not hard to understand the recent price increase is purely based on fear. Ukraine and Russia contribute to a total of about 26% to the Wheat market, even if we assume they completely vanished, it's only reasonable to guess the price should not go more than 26% from the upper channel boundary. But the markets are not rational, and during conflicting and desperate times it may increase up to 50% to the maximum wheat price recorded ever. I hope this would not happen because what happened later was the global financial crisis, and history could very well be repeated. If you have access to options, buy some puts on wheat. When markets settle the price will crash spectacularly and you can sit with a lot of cash. Do not short a parabolic market unless you have a lot of money. Buy puts on the parabolic market because all curves become lines in trades. Every parabolic move is short-lived.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by titus22045
🌾CORN - BitCorn is Back🌽🌮🍿Last year we bought because of inflation. This year things are even more serious, there is a war between Russia and Ukraine. Column: Concerns rise over Black Sea spring crops amid Russia-Ukraine war: www.reuters.com Looks like Fajitas and Tacos🌮, Kellogs frosties 🐯 and other cereal , corn on the cob 🌽, even go ''pop'' in the cinema🍿 might become expensier. On a more serious note, poverty will hit some and food will become a luxury for some. Sad but true. Scary... May logic prevail, the FXPROFESSOR 🌾
CBOT_MINI:XC1!Long
by FX_Professor
4
Soy Beans Futures (ZS1!), H4 Bullish Continuation.On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 1651'2 in line with horizontal overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 1739'0 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 1582'6 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Our bullsh bias is supported by how price is moving above the ichimoku cloud. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Up, up and away!The coffee futures have broken today the bullish flag, and this derivate on coffee follows the coffee price accordingly. Maybe in the following days, a pullback is possible, reaching 3,71 or the vicinity of the broken trendline below. According to the seasonality and inflation, I expect a general bullish trend in coffee until the end of the year. But buying this instrument and holding it until the end of the year could be difficult because of the volatility decay. Take care!
MIL:3CFLLong
by p4917
It's coffee time!See chart. NOTE : The thing about charting is IT IS BASED on probability based on historical price actions and patterns. But the market is forward looking and to restrict oneself to say that if the price moves to A, then it would goes to B, then C is not only myopic but also underestimate the Market which is ever changing. Price action could very well not touched the support line before retrace higher. Or price may not necessarily hit the 50% or 61.8% FIB level as precisely as we would like it to be. IT IS A GUIDE only. When one trades on a larger time frame, then the short term price movements would matters less as you are concerned with the overall direction of the product you are trading. I have find my heart beating way too fast and my emotions go haywire the time when I tried trading 15 minutes time frame or less. Sometimes, after keying in the order, I am already stopped out!! OUCH!!! Leave this fast trading game to the experts who can make millions trading thousands of trades a day. They earn their marks through years of practice , I am sure.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by dchua1969
Food shortages entering back into playThe playbook for manoeuvring - actively adding longs We can start with a quick review of the general plan for the operation I shall be discussing. I imagine all sitting in longs from earlier in the year are ready to exploit greater freedom of movement which we we will posses a tick above August highs. So to seize the point, our attack is a momentum move, like a sailing boat when we get caught in the wind. Eyeballing a test of first targets at 900 as early as the yearly close. As can be seen from above, it would be quite wrong to describe these moves here as anything but painful for consumers. Depending on the price action at 900 we are flirting to unlock the GFC highs. We are 23% and counting, time to start swinging the bat!
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by ridethepig
5
Wheat Completes Head and Shoulders Pattern, Target at 865Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15 Min Chart. There appears to be a completed head and shoulders price pattern on the commodity Wheat. The left shoulder is around the low of 750.38, the head made a low of 750.38 and the right shoulder made a low of 757. The pattern is not at its original designation however appears to be a positive sign nonetheless. The neckline stands at the 779.37 and 779.87 highs. The completion of this pattern takes the commodity towards current price levels at the time of publishing. Expectations are for the trend in the commodity to continue towards 865. A stop loss order has been placed at 766, below Wheat’s neckline. The Point and Figure Chart corroborates this bullish view. There was a close above the short (30-MA) medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) moving averages. There has also been positive crossovers on these respective MAs. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is above 0 and green and the RSI is above 50. The chart indicates that Wheat can rally towards 860. The Daily chart shows a breakout of 804 resistance. Closing above this level indicates a bullish move for the commodity. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 766 and a target of 865. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.73. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to Wheat.
FX:WHEATFLong
by Ceddy86
Feb 23, 22 Soybean Sell UpdateSoybeans have been on a tear for over a month now. Apparently weather is to blame around the world. Too much rain in some countries and too little rain in others. China has just released tons of Soybean from their reserve supplies to help fill the growing gap. Word is it's going to be Mid March at least before there could be any relief. By then, I believe my Alligator Indicator will almost be up there in my Sell Area of 1520. Note the second wise man circle a few weeks back?? Usually, BUT NOT ALWAYS, indicates a possible sign of price reversal?? This is one of those times where price did not reverse and price just kept on going up. This is why we must trade with our 5 rules, always using good money management. I will keep you updated - I'm hoping once price starts to fall, it will fall heavily so we can make some good money :-) HEIKO
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by HEIKOTradingSystem
6
Technical Outlook for the Coffee Market, backed by fundamentals.Fundamentals: The coffee Market has been in a strong bullish trend ever since a frost hit the brazil coffee belt in July / August 2021, followed by a period of drought. This left the world´s biggest producer of Arabica coffee with huge productivity losses for the 2021/2022 crop. That results in a really tight Arabica balance sheet for 2022, which could get worse through re-openings of coffee-to-go shops after Covid-19 lockdowns. The tense global logistic situation with low vessel space, exploding freight rates and shortage of containers and truckers is fuel to the already burning fire of less coffee supply than demand. What can be examined from this is, that roasters tap into certified coffee inventories drowning them to 10-year lows, an extremely bullish factor ever since. Technicals: Prices stay in an uptrend channel, that can be divided into a major channel and two minor ones. The structure stayed between those two lines while completing several Elliott-Waves. After a new ABC correction from the 160,00 cts high, prices could start a new 5-Wave up to test the upper line of the major channel at ~175,50 cts. The certified inventories sliding below the magical number of 1 million bags would support this move. Certified Coffee Inventory bilderupload.org Chart
ICEUS:KC2!Long
by JordanLong