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Agricultural Commodities

Big Picture Market structure for SoybeansCurrent Market Structure: **(Like Corn) Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range (IMO) from 10.00 to 12.00. Currently risk has been to the upside and inflationary threats elevated, keeping beans elevated as well. There are to many variables that affect the fundamental picture, expect volatile markets untill the Market structure becomes more defineable. Resistance area from 12.75 to 14.00 and then 16.00 area. **12.75 to 14.00 is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Support area is 11.80 to 11.40. Further Risk is 10.00 – 9.00.
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
Big Picture look at Corn Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** (IMO) The current Domestic and World; Supply & Demand numbers,paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. 2014-2020 that was a 3.75 base. If the Market went to far above or below 3.75, eventually it came back to it. Resistance above the 5.75 area at 6.50 - 7.35. **5.75+ is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Major Support is the 5.15 to 4.75 area. **Many 22’ break evens are coming in at this range. Eventually price will return to this area. Risk is 4.00-3.80 range with further extreme risk at 3.00. We traded a 6 year range from 3.00 to 4.50, someday there could still be a pull back to that area **This is a continuous front month chart, new crop (currently Dec 22’) targets should be considered when front month futures hit target areas…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
SoyBean (Central Bank Can't print Food)View On Soy Bean (19 Oct 2021) We are seeing the potential bottoming in the soft-commodities and it is about go back UP higher. For the starter, reclaiming the previous resistant of $1,280~$1,300 shall be easy. We shall see further bullish signs soon. Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:SOYF
by SonicDeejay
Coffee causing a stir in commodity markets- Aneeka Gupta, Director, Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree Coffee prices are trading at their highest level in 10 years and is the second-best performing commodity Year to date (Ytd)1. A combination of a production shortfall in Brazil (the world’s largest coffee producer) due to extreme weather conditions coupled with supply disruptions should continue to propel coffee prices higher in 2022. Lower inventory levels to keep prices vulnerable to supply shocks The coffee harvest has a biennial cycle. This implies that a crop year with a good harvest (the “on year”) will be followed by a crop year with a lower harvest (the “off-year”). The last crop in Brazil was disappointing not only because it was an off-year, but Brazil also faced unfavourable weather conditions resulting in weaker supply. This was evident from Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento’s (“CONAB”) latest estimate for Brazil’s 2021/22 coffee crop, which is down 25.7% over the prior year3. As a consequence of lower output, global ending inventories are expected to decline from 7.9mn bags to 32mn. The weaker forecast represents the lower availability of coffee for exports, following weather setbacks to the 2021 harvest and logistical bottlenecks. Further obstacles have emerged towards the latter half of 2021 in the form of elevated shipping costs and high fertilizer prices, which are also likely to lend a tailwind to coffee prices. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil’s coffee exports are expected to slump by 12.45mn bags over the prior year to 33.22mn bags in 2021/224. A decline of that level would represent the largest decline in volume terms by a distance and the sharpest fall in percentage terms at 27% since 1985/86. USDA has been citing more cases of “defaults”, where coffee farmers failed to deliver pre-agreed contracts on the physical market because of excessive hoarding of coffee beans amidst the steep rise in prices. USDA also expects global consumption to rise by 1.8 million bags to 165.0 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and Brazil. Outlook for 2022/23 clouded in uncertainty While the Brazilian 2022/23 coffee crop will be an on year (of the biennial cycle), there is still plenty of uncertainty shrouding the outlook of the coffee crop. According to Fitch, the La Nina5 weather phenomenon could cause further problems for the upcoming crop. The arrival of the La Nina weather phenomenon, which tends to bring dryness in the southern part of South America for the second consecutive year, has also dampened the outlook for the coffee crop in the upcoming season. Conclusion The supply tightness on the physical market has also pushed the front end of the coffee futures curve into backwardation from contango, thereby yielding a positive roll yield of 0.2% versus -1.4% a month back. Coffee stocks in the International Continental Exchange’s (ICE) warehouses have declined further and currently find themselves at a 9-month low of 1.78mn bags. Net speculative positioning in coffee remains 1-standard deviation above the 5-year average underscoring the bullish sentiment towards coffee. While the recent rise of the Omicron variant could threaten demand as countries decide to restrain mobility, we believe the fast-spreading variant could also complicate supply-chain disruptions and potentially drive Arabica prices higher. Sources 1 Bloomberg, tracking commodity futures price from 31 December 2020 to 8 December 2021 2 Bloomberg Ticker - KCA Comdty, price performance from 31 December 2020 to 8 December 2021 3 Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) – Brazil leading coffee forecasting agency 4 United States Department of Agriculture – Coffee: World Markets and Trade Report 5 La Niña is a complex weather pattern that occurs every few years, as a result of variations in ocean temperatures in the equatorial band of the Pacific This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ICEUS:KC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
After Dividends GIS Raised Prices...Will They CRUSH Earnings?Is GIS part of the global Supply Crunch? After several months our GIS retail play is holding up nicely but will they crush earnings? It seems they're poised to knock this out the park on 12 21, but anything could happen. Please DYOR before jumping in to GIS, read their prospectus & recent SEC filings, so there are no surprises. Full disclosure considering cutting bags here. We're done at the grocery store this quarter, & may look to rotate back into sectors that are down.
NYSE:GISLong
by CryptoQue
Coffee [13Dec2021]Yes, I track commodities too.. Comparing most of the commodities, almost all of them are bearish or slightly bearish. for example, Silver has been bearish for some time now and also gold has changed from bearish to slightly bearish today with creeping bullishness. but coffee is the only one showing such a strong a bullishness, so do I buy it? If the commodities are having a bad day except one, what does that imply? I don't know but I'm going to open a small long position at the low end of the range. If you have any idea why coffee might be bullish, please let me know below Redd
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by reddan256
4
WATCHING $SBUX for entry at 101.16WATCHING $SBUX for entry at 101.16 —————— I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence. I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news. Very often you have to look at my charts from the perspective of where I’m looking to sell puts. But I also do open positions still once in a while. If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. Have fun, y’all!! (\_/) ( •_•) / >🚀
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
2
Are Wheat & Biofuels Supply Plays?Took positions in BG last year, & ended up trading out too soon. Here is a good dip & options are cheap, not trading advice just a MACRO play. As long as food prices are going up & Russian Export Taxes are increasing then Wheat Grain & Biofuels might still be valid fundamentally. Bunge is a global player so please check out their Fundamentals, SEC Filings & Prospectus before investing real money, also it costs nothing to check price action for a few weeks or months before making a decision. That's how lots of analysts make their very best decisions. In fact the way I came across BG was from bad information about an alleged Silver Squeeze. Don't follow hype, do your own research & make the best decisions for you & your investment goals.
NYSE:BGLong
by CryptoQue
Coffee Can Become Cheaper - Reaching Reversal FCP ZoneTraders, Coffee like other commodities has been on a huge run this year. But now it has reached a point of pause, correction and possibly reversal too. So coffee futures can fall down from the FCP zone. Wait for a confirmation as the market has been trending hard upwards. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by vikinsa
4