Agriculture - SeasonalityBrief for Agriculture:
- Price inflation of commodities and tailwinds of seasonality will provide a bountiful harvest this year's end for agricultural commodities.
Focus points:
Coffee:
Oats:
Soybean:
Soymeal:
Cotton:
Most interested in Coffee and Oats, as they are showing strong trends entering into the bullish season, but eagerly awaiting Soybean and Soymeal reversals for a most opportune entry.
GLHF
- DPT
Agricultural Commodities
Soybeans minor support tradeQuick and dirty trade idea on soybeans. Nothing fancy by any stretch of the imagination.
Previous 11.85 support is being tested, maybe we can make a dollar or two based on a quick pivot to the upside. As a result, a very tight stop loss is in order, this trade has a very high reward / risk ratio. No time will be wasted, the market shall crash though support and we move on to other trades, or perhaps we can make a small profit.
Wheat & Sudden FloodsAs we all know we had several flash floods this year and most probably we will have them more in coming years. Those flash floods are affecting the agricultural fields badly. Let me clarify; Once the flash flood hits a region top soil is removed and it goes to seas. So next season on that land becomes less productive. These kind of effects will make the prices of Wheat and other agricultural commodities higher. And each passing day we experience that many farmers leave their farms as they can't compete with big companies.
Oat Milk vs Soy Milk in the Last Six MonthsOat milk has exploded onto the scene in the last six months. Oat milk does appear to be a superior product to both soy and almond milks for drinking, smoothies and alternative barista creamers. I believe the demand for oat milk and oat milk products is driving the rise of oat futures and the fall of soy.
CBOT:ZOZ2021
CBOT:ZSF2022
Wheat Futures Attempted a Breakout Last Week.Long term trend still intact. Trend continuation expected.
I've been expecting a breakout from this wedge pattern for a couple weeks. Last week, the breakout did happen, but price returned to close the week back inside the wedge. I still hold that the technical pattern is extremely bullish. Fundamentals for wheat are also bullish with rising fertilizer and energy costs.
One way to gain exposure to wheat futures is through the Teucrium Wheat Fund, ticker WEAT. This fund is not suitable for intraday or even shorter term swing trading due to low liquidity and large spreads. Over the long term however, the fund tracks the wheat market very well.
WATCHING $SBUX - Key Levels and Analysis WATCHING $SBUX - Key Levels and Analysis
Understaffed, higher cost of operations, higher cost off coffee, and unstocked shelves will likely chip away at revenue. I don’t normally look at fundamentals… I’m strictly technical. This is just what I am physically seeing every time I walk into a Starbucks.
Analysis is technical only, but it seems to be supported but what I’m seeing in real time.
Starbucks would be an excellent opportunity around 100.
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
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Soybean CrushSoy Crush: Crush demand remains very strong currently at 1.66. Strength in Crush margins can come on the backside of strong moves lower in beans. Currently crush is high due to strong demand for oil and a weaker bean market. If Bean oil holds elevated levels and Meal can find some strength, Soybeans should find a lift higher.
Soybeans: Price has retreated well off spring/summer highs. Finding support with higher crush margins
Soybean Meal: Over supply with the excess crush causing a retreat in price. Will lower price meal spur demand, or is Meal the first one lower with Beans and Oil to follow?
Soy Oil: Fundamentals in the domestic and world market driving the Oil market. Long term outlook remains elevated on Biofuel needs. A correction in the Oil market will drive the Crush market, and would eventually drive the Soybean Market lower.
**Watch the Soybean Oil market carefully. Also any negative action or talks out of Washington and the biofuels industry**
Soybeans US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes.
Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports….
COT:
Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users.
Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently adding to shorts, but pace is far behind last year. Last year the farmer sold out at harvest, leaving the Cooperatives heavily short and the funds long. Leaving the end users open to upside risk….
Commercial Longs have been adding, locking in the high crush margins.
Funds are exiting their longs
**These indicators lag behind change in trends. Currently using this data as an observation as it is too early to give a signal if low is in. A lower move nearby doesn’t appear to have staying power for a complete season….
ZC long above 540$I will buy corn futurese higher 540$, because this is very strong level and above this price everybody who sell from this level will close their short possision ("bears" will lose money higher this price) and all bulls start open their long possision so it should give us some impuls.Stopp loss not more than 2 $ and TP minimum 6 $.Good luck :)
Sugar (Sugar No. 11 - May 2022) set to continue the trendI firmly believe raw sugar futures are set to continue their upward trend seen for months now. While they have consolidated for a time and recently dipped below temporary support, which could be mistaken for a trend breakout, I believe we are simply seeing a sell-off as a reaction to the futures having floated highly above the trendline for a long time. As pointed out on the chart, the recent sell-off is of a magnitude similar to earlier sell-offs, and furthermore, we are resting firmly on the trendline. However, the risk of a trend breakout is significant and I recommend a tight SL at 18.45. On the other hand, should my hypothesis prove right, enjoy the ride and take profits at your own discretion.