GBPUSD Nov 26, 2021Not legal and financial advice;
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Agricultural Commodities
$MSM with upside potential of 70% ??
Technical Wise:
After breaking out of the downtrend, it has been consolidating with healthy volume. Price also moving in higher low while the share price holding above 200-EMA. With this formation, I am expecting to see the price to challange recent high again and has upside potential of 70% which can meet RM 2.7, in mid-to-long term.
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I believe Malaysian sure has clues of brand of Gula Prai, and the company behind that is MSM, which they produce produces, markets and sells refined sugar products. After years down-trending, finally the share price finally break made a comeback in after FEB2021 , followed by good financial turnaround for 4Q2020 after 2 years of loss-making.
I remain bullish with the counter as the trading setup has sparks my interest. On its prospects wise:
🍬 The positive earnings can be sustained as the recovery of domestic sales as economy reopens and more socioeconomic activities leading to more product consumption including sugar.
🍬 Room to grow for the current utilisation rate of 47%, which the company aimed to grow the rate above 50% as mentioned in AR2020. This shall better improve efficiency and result in lower refining and production cost.
🍬 Increasing exposure potential in exports would benefit MSM, as the global sugar retail price has gone up. This put their exports segment to better margin given that they are able to sell at higher price. As in Malaysia, sugar price has capped at ceiling price of RM 2.85 per kg, if any news to revise the capped price would be good for MSM in general.
🍬 Good hedging position in raw sugar price. As the global raw sugar price has gone up to 19usd, it would not reduce MSM margin because the group has fully hedged its raw sugar for 2021 at 0.13-0.14 usd/lbs while 85% of for 2022 at 0.16-0.17 usd/lbs. It can secure better margin for MSM.
ZC long above 590 $Big chance for breaking key level for corn.
I will buy instrument only with low volatility higher our price and with Stopp loss not more than 1,5$.
Good luck :)
ZC Corn Futures Shorts From Current AreaZC/ Corn Futures has been rejecting current level for the past few days. A couple months ago it completed a bearish bat pattern in where price reacted nicely and is currently retesting the area. Shorts/ Reversal is expected from this area.
wheat will have to enter it's cyclewheat has a 6month cycle, between northern and southern emisphere crop, looks like it will begin a supercycle, like all commodities.
by a thecnical point of view, it's forming a H&S. wheat is a quite "dangerous" commodity to trade so i don't think it's a good idea entering before the pattern ends it's forming and starts going down from that neckline, multiple false breakouts are to expect once the price is bellow the neckline. i don't think it's a coincidence that the natural target of the pattern coincides with a round number (600), witch has been a strong resistance and support in the past.
SUGARUSD Target Price 0.20294SUGARUSD Ascending Triangle; Symmetrical Triangle; Exponential Moving Averages; Trend Lines
SUGARUSD Hit Take Profit (2021/11/11 Trade Idea)I still have one open position and trailing my stop loss.
Cocoa ShortRough market cycles are derived from significant resistance and support using the sine wave and cycle line tool. In tandem with this, the market cycle based reflex indicator cycle line has crossed trend line, as well as the 8 hour fisher transform being "overbought". I would not place a trade based on any of these indications separately, but collectively I believe it is worth shorting at risk / reward ratio of 1:5 as outlined on the chart.
Wheat Futures Breakout ConfirmedThe attempted breakout was confirmed last week. The long term up trend in price is expected to continue. This is a follow up from my previous post.
Agriculture - SeasonalityBrief for Agriculture:
- Price inflation of commodities and tailwinds of seasonality will provide a bountiful harvest this year's end for agricultural commodities.
Focus points:
Coffee:
Oats:
Soybean:
Soymeal:
Cotton:
Most interested in Coffee and Oats, as they are showing strong trends entering into the bullish season, but eagerly awaiting Soybean and Soymeal reversals for a most opportune entry.
GLHF
- DPT
Soybeans minor support tradeQuick and dirty trade idea on soybeans. Nothing fancy by any stretch of the imagination.
Previous 11.85 support is being tested, maybe we can make a dollar or two based on a quick pivot to the upside. As a result, a very tight stop loss is in order, this trade has a very high reward / risk ratio. No time will be wasted, the market shall crash though support and we move on to other trades, or perhaps we can make a small profit.
Coffee rounded bottom almost complete. Breakout expected soon.Will we see a breakout from this 3 year rounded bottom?
COTTON WOULD LIKE TO SEE COTTON retrace into the area I highlight on the charts as we are in a shift of times and inflations haha. Not trying to pick the top, we still bullish
Uttam SugarsLikely to follow uptrend changed in MACD consolidation yet Break out
Target 1 - 243.30
Target 2 - 267.80
SL -170.90
Reasons you should not miss aout on this stockPlease buy and HODL. All the reasons are on the chart!
SUGARUSD (Watch Price Level 0.19318)If a candlestick closes below 0.19318, then I will exit my long positions. A double top pattern formed on the chart which indicates a reversal.
Wheat & Sudden FloodsAs we all know we had several flash floods this year and most probably we will have them more in coming years. Those flash floods are affecting the agricultural fields badly. Let me clarify; Once the flash flood hits a region top soil is removed and it goes to seas. So next season on that land becomes less productive. These kind of effects will make the prices of Wheat and other agricultural commodities higher. And each passing day we experience that many farmers leave their farms as they can't compete with big companies.
Oat Milk vs Soy Milk in the Last Six MonthsOat milk has exploded onto the scene in the last six months. Oat milk does appear to be a superior product to both soy and almond milks for drinking, smoothies and alternative barista creamers. I believe the demand for oat milk and oat milk products is driving the rise of oat futures and the fall of soy.
CBOT:ZOZ2021
CBOT:ZSF2022
Wheat Futures Attempted a Breakout Last Week.Long term trend still intact. Trend continuation expected.
I've been expecting a breakout from this wedge pattern for a couple weeks. Last week, the breakout did happen, but price returned to close the week back inside the wedge. I still hold that the technical pattern is extremely bullish. Fundamentals for wheat are also bullish with rising fertilizer and energy costs.
One way to gain exposure to wheat futures is through the Teucrium Wheat Fund, ticker WEAT. This fund is not suitable for intraday or even shorter term swing trading due to low liquidity and large spreads. Over the long term however, the fund tracks the wheat market very well.
SUGARUSD (Sugar) Target Price 0.19966SUGARUSD Entry at 0.19082. In the chart shown below, I used the symmetrical chart pattern to enter early. I entered before the planned breakout at price level 0.19318.
The chart shown below is the current status.
