GBP CAD bullish ⬆️GBP CAD bullish Head and shoulder pattern and Cup pattern together. when broken this resistance Buying will be strong
Agricultural Commodities
KC Wheat Cont KC Wheat - Weekly: Some indecision the past few weeks with price action working above the Blue Tenkan and below the red Kijun lines. Upside targets remain at 8.75 to 8.92. A breakout above the 8.92 high has targets up to 9.84. Support is 7.43 with further retracements at 7.07 and 6.51.
March SoybeansMarch Soybeans - Daily: Trying to measure upside targets on beans seams futile on a daily scale….. But we try
From the May21’ Swing high at 14.45 to the Nov21 Swing low at 11.93, March22 Beans filled the recent target at 16.01. On the more precise scale on the right, we look at the consolidation before Monday’s gap higher to measure a primary target at 15.86 with targets up to 16.23 that were filled. From the continuous chart to the March bean chart, it appears there could be some measured resistance at 16.00 to 16.23. Above were looking at levels up to 16.73 to 17.00.
Support at 15.64 to 15.27 with Risk down a ways to 14.45.
Soybean marketSoybean – Weekly Cont: Price accelerated from the 50% retracement and resistance level at 14.24 up past the cloud and quickly filled the next primary target at 16.12. Last spring beans spent a few weeks above 15.75, but with light volume.
No telling if beans will chop around into a consolidation pattern to give us time to better guess a direction, or if it launches higher filling the targets above…
The candlestick formation left behind this week looks similar to the one left behind last year at the high. I am cautious for the next week or two and would be willing to look at short term protection
Soybean big picture Market structureLooking at the same parameters as we did for the Corn: I didn’t show a 200% or 300% rate of change as I did with Corn. Instead I show that it would take a 107% rate of change to match the 2012’s 17.89 high. **A 200% gain would place Beans in the mid $20’s….
Corn: Continuous CornCorn – Weekly Cont: Price action working above the supportive Cloud, blue Tenkan line, and downtrend line.
Target above at 6.84. Primary target at 7.08 and then last year’s high at 7.35. ** 162% retracement target at 8.82 **
Corn Market **Please do not take this as a projection or extreme bullish stance. This Market is sensitive to major up and down moves that will eventually leave many surprised by the high and the low it will leave behind.
The quarterly chart shows extreme highs being made in the past 50 years.
The current Corn market shares some similarities with the 06’-08 and the 71’-73’ Markets.
Supply, Demand, and Inflationary driven Markets. Add emotionally driven as well….
• 71’-73’ Had the Russian Grain robbery and the US$ taken off the gold standard. I don’t know about production back then but the World demand and inflationary fears were very strong
• 06’-08’ Had new demand in US ethanol paired with a strong growing China economy hungry for US grains. The 07/08 housing crisis brought fears of inflation. I am unsure on production in those years.
• 20’-22’ Domestic and world demand is strong. There have been areas of production misses the past couple of years across major exporting nations, and Inflationary fears are elevated. Part of last year’s corn rally ending was due to rationing of corn for feed demand as Corn approached $7.00, Wheat still had a 5 in front of it. This year Wheat has been trading above $8. Major corn rallies of the past were preceded by strong Wheat rallies.
With similar ingredients to previous Major Bull rallies, I feel that potential upside on this market is extreme and unmeasurable. Because we never know for sure, I had Identified the 5.75+ area as a place to target old crop sales, with the 7.35 area the potential upside/resistance. But beyond that I feel that the 9.50 area should be considered for potential extreme upside.
Both of the previously identified markets rallied more than 200% of their 24 month low before cooling off. I do think it is fair to use rate of change as potential upside when dealing with inflationary type markets. Corn has never been to 9.50 before, but (twice in 50 years) it has seen a rate of change of 200%.
For New Crop Corn: I don’t know if there is anything we can do with this other than look more at courage calls, or to be more engaged with puts (with a roll up program). This is a monthly continuous chart that will be driven by old crop contracts. There could be a strong old crop/new crop inverse if this thing was to get excited the first 6 months of this year, but new crop contracts should perform well.
It is dangerous to put out charts showing such extreme levels, but I think it is prudent to shock test Margin callscenarios against such extreme levels.
**Down side support is 4.75-5.15, extreme Risk is 3.80 to 3.00.
Feb 10, 22 Soybean Sell Almost TimeYou can see that price action soared way above the Linear Regression Indicator this week and has been on a tear for many weeks just going to the moon. I am waiting for price action to finally come down - today it started but I'm not sure when I will short this trade. Next week will be the earliest but it might be March.
You can see this is the weekly chart so it might be a while before this becomes tradeable. Regardless, I am keeping an eye on this one and will let you know if anything changes.
HEIKO
an analyse about coffee kc in 15 min frame "sell"I think there is no volume but I think it's time to sell
SB1! (SUGAR) BULLISHSB1! (SUGAR) is bullish. We are going for the Intermediate 5th of Primary C of the cycle be. For now, the target area is roughly $23.43 to $$24.80 which is 50% and 61.8% of fibo. This is the commodity market and in a commodity market, the 5th wave can be extended. For now invalidation level is $17.60 which is the 4th wave for now.
DISCLOSURE - Please be informed that the information I provide is not a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of my work is for educational purposes only. All labeling and wave count have been done by me manually and I will keep changing according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So don't bias, hope on my trade plans. Try to learn Elliott Wave or other strategies and make your own strategy. Following is not that much easy. I am not responsible for any losses if u took the trade according to my trade plans.
#SB1! #SUGAR
COFF Long (+ I LOVE DRINKING COFFEE)LSE:COFF
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Soybeans ripped! Approaching monthly resistanceTook profits on my SOYB position for some nice gains considering a lot of downside in the equities market.
On a monthly time frame, SOYB is approaching resistance zone so I took profits and will be watching to see how price reacts here.
I'm expecting retracement / consolidation here before continuation to the upside or back down from profit takers and sellers stepping in.
Alert set at $26.5
May also be setting up for a good short opportunity
Coffee JO nice VCP Triangle breakoutsSome nice VCP / Saucer Handle patterns on JO as it continues to climb higher.
Watch for a break higher if it can chew through 67 zone resistance
Break lower out of triangle / trendline support invalidates long idea.
On a macro level we're seeing bullish setups in AG complex (coffee , rice, wheat, corn, soybeans, etc.) , coupled with inflation coffee should run.
Personally I've noticed my local coffee shops also charging $1 per cold brew which supports the bull case.
Shorted SugarShorted some sugar, based one previous resistance and top of rising wedge, will keep SL tight. Look for retest of lows as indicated
* Prices shown in this chart is based on OANDA, price might differ from the product traded and brokers. However the underlying principles are the same
Starbucks (NASDAQ: $SBUX) Looks Like Great Value Play! ☕Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
A minimum three-wave rally on Wheat Expected - Elliott wave WHEAT made a sharp and impulsive drop from the mentioned resistance levels, at Fib. ratio of 0.382/0.50 and at the level of a former wave iv (795/800 area). We labelled a possibly completed five-wave structure in C at 757 lvl., which means a minimum three-wave rally can now be in the cards, and is already underway.
If only a three-wave rally shows up, and then we see a new impulsive drop below the 757 lvl.. then this would suggest more weakness for a wave C.
If we get more impulsive price movement to the upside, and eventually above the upper parallel channel line, then this would suggest a bullish change in trend, and a completed red A-B-C correction.
🌽corn looks pretty ripe for a nice little reversal
saw a clean 5 waves down into Wave (A) to the 0.382 algo target, and is currently trying to poke out of the downtrend it's been in.
i do believe that this mean reversion begins in the days ahead for the Wave (B) swing to the 0.618.
Wave B target = 642
Wave C target = 423
🌽 bear market continues?in my last post, i called out the corn bottom via 👇
people told me some weird things about that call out, something along the lines of "no way bro"
well we hit my target m8.
are you going to short corn?
Corn Corn CornDouble-bottom -> break-out -> break of the descending trendline -> now a re-test of the trendline and MA's -> I think we will be soon ready for a bullish move!
WHEAT Looks Promising - Elliott waveWHEAT (MAR 2022) made a textbook example of an impulsive (five legged) wave, down from 831 high, and found a potential low for a higher degree wave A or 1 at the 774 lvl.. Price can now be in a temporary, corrective retracement labelled as an a-b-c flat of a higher degree wave B or 2. Possible resistance is at fib. ratio of 0.382/0.50.
In case if price starts dropping impulsively through the lower corrective parallel channel line, and below the 774 low, then we would consider a completed correction in B or 2, and further weakness.
WHEAT in leg v of a bearish turn - Elliott waveWHEAT is trading in a five-wave decline for a higher degree wave 1 or A from 831 high. We also see that price broke below the lower corrective parallel channel line, which is a confirmation that a temporary high is in place, and a change in trend underway.
At the moment we are tracking a sub-wave v of 1/A, down from 795 lvl., where a corrective sub-wave iv had ended (fib. ratio of 0.382 and 0.50 reacted as resistance). Sub-wave v can reach area near the 776/771 lvls., before an a-b-c move for a bigger 2/B correction may follow.
WHEAT turning bearish for a lesser five-wave move - Elliott waveWHEAT (Mar 2022) is trading as expected, turning in impulsive fashion down from 831 high of a former higher degree wave C. We labelled a five-wave move in progress for a higher degree wave 1 or A; sub-wave iv correction can now be underway, with possible resistance at the Fib. ratio of 0.382 or 0.50. Also the upper side of the lower parallel corrective channel line can react as resistance, and the former swing high of a wave b (796'2 lvl.). A sharp break below the 782 lvl. would suggest a completed minor correction and sub-wave v underway.
An impulsive fall, followed by a break bellow the lower corrective parallel channel line indicates a bearsih turn on the intra-day chart of wheat.
