Agricultural Commodities
Soybeans ripped! Approaching monthly resistanceTook profits on my SOYB position for some nice gains considering a lot of downside in the equities market.
On a monthly time frame, SOYB is approaching resistance zone so I took profits and will be watching to see how price reacts here.
I'm expecting retracement / consolidation here before continuation to the upside or back down from profit takers and sellers stepping in.
Alert set at $26.5
May also be setting up for a good short opportunity
Coffee JO nice VCP Triangle breakoutsSome nice VCP / Saucer Handle patterns on JO as it continues to climb higher.
Watch for a break higher if it can chew through 67 zone resistance
Break lower out of triangle / trendline support invalidates long idea.
On a macro level we're seeing bullish setups in AG complex (coffee , rice, wheat, corn, soybeans, etc.) , coupled with inflation coffee should run.
Personally I've noticed my local coffee shops also charging $1 per cold brew which supports the bull case.
Shorted SugarShorted some sugar, based one previous resistance and top of rising wedge, will keep SL tight. Look for retest of lows as indicated
* Prices shown in this chart is based on OANDA, price might differ from the product traded and brokers. However the underlying principles are the same
Starbucks (NASDAQ: $SBUX) Looks Like Great Value Play! ☕Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
A minimum three-wave rally on Wheat Expected - Elliott wave WHEAT made a sharp and impulsive drop from the mentioned resistance levels, at Fib. ratio of 0.382/0.50 and at the level of a former wave iv (795/800 area). We labelled a possibly completed five-wave structure in C at 757 lvl., which means a minimum three-wave rally can now be in the cards, and is already underway.
If only a three-wave rally shows up, and then we see a new impulsive drop below the 757 lvl.. then this would suggest more weakness for a wave C.
If we get more impulsive price movement to the upside, and eventually above the upper parallel channel line, then this would suggest a bullish change in trend, and a completed red A-B-C correction.
🌽corn looks pretty ripe for a nice little reversal
saw a clean 5 waves down into Wave (A) to the 0.382 algo target, and is currently trying to poke out of the downtrend it's been in.
i do believe that this mean reversion begins in the days ahead for the Wave (B) swing to the 0.618.
Wave B target = 642
Wave C target = 423
🌽 bear market continues?in my last post, i called out the corn bottom via 👇
people told me some weird things about that call out, something along the lines of "no way bro"
well we hit my target m8.
are you going to short corn?
Corn Corn CornDouble-bottom -> break-out -> break of the descending trendline -> now a re-test of the trendline and MA's -> I think we will be soon ready for a bullish move!
WHEAT Looks Promising - Elliott waveWHEAT (MAR 2022) made a textbook example of an impulsive (five legged) wave, down from 831 high, and found a potential low for a higher degree wave A or 1 at the 774 lvl.. Price can now be in a temporary, corrective retracement labelled as an a-b-c flat of a higher degree wave B or 2. Possible resistance is at fib. ratio of 0.382/0.50.
In case if price starts dropping impulsively through the lower corrective parallel channel line, and below the 774 low, then we would consider a completed correction in B or 2, and further weakness.
WHEAT in leg v of a bearish turn - Elliott waveWHEAT is trading in a five-wave decline for a higher degree wave 1 or A from 831 high. We also see that price broke below the lower corrective parallel channel line, which is a confirmation that a temporary high is in place, and a change in trend underway.
At the moment we are tracking a sub-wave v of 1/A, down from 795 lvl., where a corrective sub-wave iv had ended (fib. ratio of 0.382 and 0.50 reacted as resistance). Sub-wave v can reach area near the 776/771 lvls., before an a-b-c move for a bigger 2/B correction may follow.
WHEAT turning bearish for a lesser five-wave move - Elliott waveWHEAT (Mar 2022) is trading as expected, turning in impulsive fashion down from 831 high of a former higher degree wave C. We labelled a five-wave move in progress for a higher degree wave 1 or A; sub-wave iv correction can now be underway, with possible resistance at the Fib. ratio of 0.382 or 0.50. Also the upper side of the lower parallel corrective channel line can react as resistance, and the former swing high of a wave b (796'2 lvl.). A sharp break below the 782 lvl. would suggest a completed minor correction and sub-wave v underway.
An impulsive fall, followed by a break bellow the lower corrective parallel channel line indicates a bearsih turn on the intra-day chart of wheat.
Long SoybeansGoing long (commons) on SOYB
Agriculture looks bullish and I like the textbook breakout here. Also with equities wavering, SOYB DBA CORN agro charts appear more bullish to me IMO
Respect the stop loss and but give this trade idea time, she's not always the fastest mover
Wheat Taking The Bullish Move - Elliott waveWHEAT (Mar 2022) found a low for a corrective wave B at the 776 level, near the Fib. ratios of 0.382 and 0.5, which can also react as support, and bounced sharply higher. A sharp rally above the upper parallel channel line, and above the former high at 803 lvl. is an indication that bulls are in control, and that correction is completed.
We are now tracking a five-wave rally, a new impulse labelled as wave C, which can target the upper parallel channel line, connected from the high of A. 825/835 area can be seen, and can be achieved in a five-wave fashion as previous wave A.
Could Sugar start an Uptrend? I think soCommodities are known for their easy to follow trends and Sugar here might be starting a long trend.
MORE UPSIDE ON WHEAT, INTRA-DAY - ELLIOTT WAVE A five-wave rally on wheat (March 2022) from 737 lvl. on the intra-day chart makes a bullish sign, and suggests more upside, once current a-b-c correction fully unfolds. Correction can be a complex one, and can look for support at the 770/761 region, where wave iv and Fib. ratio of 0.618 sit.
Optimal Short Entry For Cotton FuturesRisk/Reward here is insane. Optimal long-term short entry. This is the third time cotton has been at this level in 50 years. Use good risk management unless an anomaly occurs like it did in the 2011 spike. Don't risk more than 1 to 2 percent of your total account size.
1/23/22 CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Agricultural)
Market Capitalization: 14.155B
Current Price: $66.00
Breakout price: $70.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $66.00-$61.50
Price Target: $78.90-$80.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 80-88d
Contract of Interest: $CF 5/20/22 70c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.95/contract
1/23/22 NTRNutrien Ltd. ( NYSE:NTR )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemical Agricultural)
Market Capitalization: 40.677B
Current Price: $70.82
Breakout price: $72.25
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $70.50-$67.25
Price Target: $79.25-$80.50
Estimated Duration to Target: 114-120d
Contract of Interest: $NTR 6/17/22 75c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.40/contract
Corn Looks Poised To FlyThis CORN Etf is showing signs of accumulation. It will likely continue higher for some time.
Sugar : BullishSugar futures reacted off to a bullish rejection block on Weekly, creating a breaker+ on Daily. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in next few weeks. Target is the liquidity up top of the range.
WHEAT, closed in Stop ProfitAfter 3 months we close our positions on wheat.
The price pulled back 25 points, leading our positions to hit the Stop Profit we had set at 769.80 to save profits, and it did.
Very good are those who have deducted part of the contracts on 50%, others on 38.2% letting the remaining part of the contracts run, very well indeed.
Now let's let the WHEAT go where it wants to go, we are far from any signal of the MCS, in February we will be in A1 of the annual and we will then evaluate any possible trade.
JO Fibonacci SetupThis speed resistance fan has been very well respected. If price doesn't make a higher high, I would expect a re-test of previous resistance at $58 which is also .5 fib retracement, a fresh daily level, and an old weekly level. Would potentially trade up to 1:1 extension.
