Agricultural Commodities
wheat will have to enter it's cyclewheat has a 6month cycle, between northern and southern emisphere crop, looks like it will begin a supercycle, like all commodities.
by a thecnical point of view, it's forming a H&S. wheat is a quite "dangerous" commodity to trade so i don't think it's a good idea entering before the pattern ends it's forming and starts going down from that neckline, multiple false breakouts are to expect once the price is bellow the neckline. i don't think it's a coincidence that the natural target of the pattern coincides with a round number (600), witch has been a strong resistance and support in the past.
Cocoa ShortRough market cycles are derived from significant resistance and support using the sine wave and cycle line tool. In tandem with this, the market cycle based reflex indicator cycle line has crossed trend line, as well as the 8 hour fisher transform being "overbought". I would not place a trade based on any of these indications separately, but collectively I believe it is worth shorting at risk / reward ratio of 1:5 as outlined on the chart.
Agriculture - SeasonalityBrief for Agriculture:
- Price inflation of commodities and tailwinds of seasonality will provide a bountiful harvest this year's end for agricultural commodities.
Focus points:
Coffee:
Oats:
Soybean:
Soymeal:
Cotton:
Most interested in Coffee and Oats, as they are showing strong trends entering into the bullish season, but eagerly awaiting Soybean and Soymeal reversals for a most opportune entry.
GLHF
- DPT
Soybeans minor support tradeQuick and dirty trade idea on soybeans. Nothing fancy by any stretch of the imagination.
Previous 11.85 support is being tested, maybe we can make a dollar or two based on a quick pivot to the upside. As a result, a very tight stop loss is in order, this trade has a very high reward / risk ratio. No time will be wasted, the market shall crash though support and we move on to other trades, or perhaps we can make a small profit.
Wheat & Sudden FloodsAs we all know we had several flash floods this year and most probably we will have them more in coming years. Those flash floods are affecting the agricultural fields badly. Let me clarify; Once the flash flood hits a region top soil is removed and it goes to seas. So next season on that land becomes less productive. These kind of effects will make the prices of Wheat and other agricultural commodities higher. And each passing day we experience that many farmers leave their farms as they can't compete with big companies.
Oat Milk vs Soy Milk in the Last Six MonthsOat milk has exploded onto the scene in the last six months. Oat milk does appear to be a superior product to both soy and almond milks for drinking, smoothies and alternative barista creamers. I believe the demand for oat milk and oat milk products is driving the rise of oat futures and the fall of soy.
CBOT:ZOZ2021
CBOT:ZSF2022
Wheat Futures Attempted a Breakout Last Week.Long term trend still intact. Trend continuation expected.
I've been expecting a breakout from this wedge pattern for a couple weeks. Last week, the breakout did happen, but price returned to close the week back inside the wedge. I still hold that the technical pattern is extremely bullish. Fundamentals for wheat are also bullish with rising fertilizer and energy costs.
One way to gain exposure to wheat futures is through the Teucrium Wheat Fund, ticker WEAT. This fund is not suitable for intraday or even shorter term swing trading due to low liquidity and large spreads. Over the long term however, the fund tracks the wheat market very well.