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Agricultural Commodities

Buy Coffee Day Enterprises LtdCoffee Day Enterprises Ltd. which runs cafe chain with brand name Cafe coffee day is trading at a current price of 53.2 rupees but it's book value is 146. Its around 2.744 times book value. The company is running and generating profit even after the death of its founder years back. It shows that the management of the company is keen to take the company to new heights. Hope you love my analysis. Please invest after your own analysis. Do like and follow. Thank you.
NSE:COFFEEDAYLong
by ronak16125
SOYBEANS Excellent buy opportunity.Soybeans (ZS1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since early 2023 just last week, it almost hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). So far the price has reacted with a minor rebound, while the 1D RSI has been on a major Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows). This is the best buy signal since the May 31 2023 bottom where again after an RSI Bullish Divergence, the price rebounded aggressively to the 0.618 Fib on a +12.56% rally. So far within this long-term Channel Down, we have had similar rebounds of +12.56%, +14.26% and +11.86%. Assuming the minimum of +11.86%, we are setting a Target on Soybeans at 1263'5, which may almost make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the natural technical Resistance since April 24 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by TradingShot
CORN Excellent 4-month buy opportunity.Corn's (ZC1!) price action since the COVID recovery in early 2020 is showcasing an amazing resemblance with the previous full Cycle of 2009 - 2014. This is better illustrated on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. Both started the Bull phase on a roughly +175% rebound on the 17 year Support Zone, topping on a Higher Highs (which was a Bearish Divergence with the Lower Highs of the 1M RSI) and then declined both astonishingly by -51.93%. This is where the market is at now. In 2014 the price rebounded by +28.78% back above the 1W MA50 marginally and just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, before resuming the long-term decline to the 17 year Support Zone. As a result, this presents an excellent 4-month buy opportunity with 506'4 as the Target (+28.78%). Notice also that the 1M RSI is on the exact same level (33.75) as it was on the January 2014 Low, and is reversing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by TradingShot
Cotton # 2 Futures. The Epic 52-Week Highs BreakthroughThe main technical graph is for Cotton # 2 Futures that firmly up this year, with solid 13.5 percent performance in 2024 to this time. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cotton traders dropped 6k existing shorts and added 11.6k new longs during the week that ended 2/6. That raised their net long to 46,344 contracts. Commercial cotton hedgers added 17.5k short hedges for a 90,540 contract net short as of 2/6. NOAA’s 7-day QPF has another band of heavy precip for the South/East. From the Gulf of TX through TN/NC/KY accumulations top out near 4”. Most of Northern LA, North/Central MS, Northern AL, and Northern GA will get ~2”. Central TX cotton area will also get ¾ to 1 ½” of precip to build up soil moisture reserves. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor confirmed there was still some D3-D4 in Northeast MS, but the total D3-D4 area has fallen from 29% to 2% since December 5th for the South-Southeast. The monthly WASDE update showed a 150k bale lighter domestic cotton use, now at 1.75 million bales. Exports, however, were raised by 200k bales to offset. On net ending stocks tightened by 100k to 2.8 million in the report. The main technical graph for Cotton # 2 futures ICEUS:CT1! indicates on 52-week highs breakthrough, as massive 20-years SMA supported the price over the past 12-15 months. Weekly RSI(14) sub chart is to confirm this epic breakout, while COT data says, Largest speculators are still positive in net position all the time, keeping calm above Zero-level, while producers are to massively sell the production.
ICEUS:CT1!
by Pandorra
[COCOA] Cacao timing to take the correctionCurrently, the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA (cacao) market has undergone a notable upside rally over recent days, culminating in a significant move towards the $6000 level. Today, we observed a precise hit of this key psychological level, followed by a clean rejection, prompting a short position. The primary objective now is to remain below this crucial $6000 level, aiming to capitalize on a potential correction in the recent upward surge. By maintaining short positions, we aim to capture the potential downside movement with a relatively small risk, yet the possibility of a substantial gain. Initially, the trade unfolded favorably, with the price action aligning with our short position. However, subsequent movement saw a retracement back towards the entry level, highlighting the need for vigilance and adaptability in response to evolving market conditions. As we await further price action, it's imperative to remain attentive to developments in the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA market. Tomorrow's movements will provide valuable insights into the durability of the recent rejection and the potential continuation or reversal of the prevailing trend. In navigating this trade, maintaining a disciplined approach and closely monitoring key levels and indicators will be crucial. While the potential for a significant win exists, it's essential to manage risk effectively and remain adaptable to changing market dynamics.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by ArnoSG
1
WHEAT Bearish pressure under the 1D MA50 and MA200.Wheat (ZW1!) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattenr since July 2022. The price is currently on a bearish sequence below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It appears that technically this is a Bearish Leg following the December 06 2023 Lower High rejection, similar to the one that started on the October 10 2022 Lower High. That sequence reached the Channel Down bottom on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our long-term Target is 455'7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by TradingShot
Descending Wedge & Bullish Divergence on March SoybeansFundamental Outlook: There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamental outlook for soybeans is bearish. Global ending stocks are now at all time highs per the last WASDE report, and export demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed considerably - currently down around 19% year-over-year. As South American harvest progresses, the outlook of the Brazilian soybean crop has also improved. Talking Technicals: Despite the bearish fundamental outlook - the descending wedge, bullish divergence on 14-day RSI, and declining volume profile presents a bullish setup. Managed money funds remain aggressively short - holding a net-short position greater than 150,000 contracts across futures and options on soybeans. An upside breakout could result in short-covering, ultimately propelling prices higher in the near-term. Descending wedge patterns typically see sharp, upside breakouts which would be akin to the price action observed in a short-covering rally. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSH2024Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult. This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies. With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent. For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
AMEX:WEATLong
by Maximus20000
Where is the bottom for soybeans? Soybean futures are off to a rough start in 2024. In the first week of trading, March soybeans were down nearly 42 cents on the back of beneficial rains sweeping Central Brazil. Selling pressure permeated into Monday’s session as well, with soybeans trading down into the mid 1230’s. So, the question now becomes, will March soybeans make new contract lows? Fundamental Snapshot : Monday’s lower price action is not all that surprising considering U.S. export inspections for soybeans were reported at 675k metric tons - below average trade estimates. Meanwhile, Brazil has been exporting both corn and soybeans at record paces each of the past two years, and is expected to have a record or near-record soybean crop this year as well. Wednesday, CONAB will release data pertaining to their estimations of corn and soybeans. Currently, they are less optimistic about the state of the Brazilian soybean crop than the USDA, and USDA will release their World Agricultural Supply and Demand Expectations report on Friday. If we see sweeping downward adjustments to production estimates from both CONAB and USDA, it may help soybeans find a bottom. However, if the market is disappointed in the data released this week, we may see soybeans test 1200 sooner rather than later. Technical Outlook : After last week’s precipitous drop, it was surprising that March beans failed to enter oversold territory. However, it did not take long to break into OS territory on Monday’s session. The head-and-shoulders pattern that’s developed over the past fiscal quarter has a difference of approximately $1.20/bu, which puts an operative price target between 1198 and 1208. That also happens to be the 78.6% retracement level between the mid-June lows and late-July highs. Markets can stay in overbought/oversold territory for extended periods of time, so if data disappoints this week, we may see the head-and-shoulders reach its price target. However, a positive reception to fundamental data this week may serve as a launching pad for soybeans to start moving higher. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSH2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
WHEAT Struggling on the 1D MA200. Long-term sell opportunity.Wheat (ZW1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since July 2022 and since early December has failed repeatedly to detach itself above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Since it is closer to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern and it resembles the February 14 High, we expect a strong selling sequence if the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The previous Lower Low was priced on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension from the Lower High. That gives us a projected target of 413'0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by TradingShot
1
HE: Upside Potential on Pork Prices with New Hog Cycle UnderwayCME: Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! ) Throughout 2023, U.S. grocery shoppers find that beef prices rise rapidly. According to the National Daily Cattle and Beef report, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Choice Beef averaged $290 per cwt (100 pounds) on December 8th. This represents a 16% increase year-over-year and is 21% above the 5-year average. In the futures market, CME Live Cattle ( NASDAQ:LE ) hit bottom at $85 per cwt in April 2020 during the pandemic lockdown period. Since then, cattle prices have trended up in a straight line to top $185 by this September, before pulling back recently in Q4. Beef prices have more than doubled, while the official reading of CPI for Food and Beverage went up by only 27% in the past five years. Fortunately, you could still find low-cost meats if you walk over to the Pork section. Based on the USDA National Daily Hog and Pork report, Hog Carcass averaged $60 per cwt last Friday. It is a whopping 29% discount comparing to the $85 price tag on the same day last year. Ham price averaged $84, which is $10 cheaper than the same period last year. In the futures market, CME Lean Hog ( NYSE:HE ) tends to move up and down in a cycle average 2-3 years. This phenomenon is referred to as “Hog Price Cycle” or “Hog Cycle” in agricultural economics. Pork prices do not appear to be impacted by the inflation. The Hog Cycle Hog cycles are the changes recurring in agriculture in the production and prices. A complete hog cycle includes successive years of increase and decrease in hog production cycle. In general, a higher level of hog inventory will result in pork supply surplus, and cause hog and pork prices to fall in future months. Lower hog stock leads to pork supply shortage and will cause prices to rise. There is a mismatch between hog production cycle and hog price cycle, because it takes time to produce hogs, from farrow to weaned pig, and from feeder pig to market pig. To complete a feedback loop, a producer first observes change in market prices, he then adjusts production level accordingly. It will be 5-6 months later before the change in hog output occurs. We could describe the sequence of events in the following: 1) As producers incur loss from low price, they liquidate sows and reduce hog inventories. 2) A lower level of hog production results in a shortage of pork supply (months later). 3) Pork price goes up as supply could not meet demand. 4) Higher hog price induces producers to raise hog inventory. 5) Higher hog production results in a surplus of pork supply (months later). 6) Hog price declines due to the oversupply of pork in the market. Sow Liquidation Could Lead to Lower Hog Supply in 2024 Iowa State University (ISU) is a leading authority in swine research. Based on the estimates put out by ISU Economics Department, a typical Farrow-to-Finish hog producer in the U.S. would have incurred losses in ten out of the last twelve months. As shown in the table below, a producer farrowed in September 2022 would pay $129.15 in feed cost and $71.90 in nonfeed cost per hog. When he sold the hog with an average weight of 270 pounds in April 2023, he would receive $148.83 and a manure credit of $8.50, resulting in a net loss of $49.47. These steep losses average $21 per month from November 2022 to October 2023. Hog farmers may be forced to liquidate sows this winter. It could result in lower hog inventory and lower pork supply in the coming months. In the 2023 September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, the USDA estimated that U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs was 74.3 million heads. This was up slightly YOY, and up 2% Q2, 2023. The new quarterly report will be released in two weeks. The updated data would help us validate whether sow liquidation has increased as we hypothesize. USMEF Export Data The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) recently posted export data for October. U.S. pork exports posted another strong performance, led by record-large shipments to Mexico and broad-based growth elsewhere. October beef exports remained well below last year’s large totals but improved from September. October pork exports totaled 245,345 metric tons (mt), up 3% YOY as the largest since June, valued at $688.2 million. For the first 10 months of 2023, pork exports increased 9% YOY to 2.38 million mt, with value up 6% to $6.66 billion. In my opinion, the sharp decline in hog prices increases the competitiveness of U.S. pork around the world, fueling the export boom. CFTC COT Report The U.S. futures market regulator CFTC publishes the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports and provides a breakdown of open interest for futures and options markets. What’s the key takeaway from the December 5th COT report on CME leaned hog? Weekly CFTC data showed the lean hog speculative traders were closing longs and adding shorts during the week that ended 12/5. That left the funds with a 3.4k contract stronger net short of 17,963. This may be a bearish signal. However, speculative traders may have incurred large losses on the long positions, and they simply took cover. Trading Opportunity with Lean Hog Futures To sum up the above analysis, I expect to see lower hog supply due to sow liquidation in the coming months. This will usher a new hog cycle. See step (1) in the 6-step hog cycle above. With a strong labor market and cooling inflation, particularly lower gasoline prices, we could see some improvement in consumer demand for pork. A strong export market reduces supply surplus in the domestic market, which also helps lift pork prices. The April 2024 lean hog futures (HEJ4) was settled at $74.625 last Friday. Each contract has a notional value of 40,000 pounds, or $29,850 at current price. To acquire 1 long or short position, a trader is required to deposit an initial margin of $1,500. The trader could see higher hog prices if sow liquidation speeds up, and the export market remains strong. A long position would profit from the rise in hog price. Each contract would gain $400 for every 1 penny of increase in hog price per pound. On the other hand, hog prices could stay low if the opposite happens. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:HE1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
🌱 Soybean Update 🆕Fundamental Data👇 🌱Soybean Marketing Year Progress (23/24) ▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░ 27.62% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 1,108,864 Metric Tons ⬇️ 464,425 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 1,120,580 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 800,246 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week Export Sales🗺️🫰 32,399,826 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬇️ 4,898,256 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊 Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 24% Neutral 🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 27% Bearish 🟥🟥🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 44% Fund Net Position💰 Chicago Soybeans: +36,633 Contracts (Position as of 12/05) Funds have been reducing their net long position 3 weeks in a row Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕 🔴 Funds have been reducing their net long position, 3 weeks in a row 🔴/🟢 Export interest for US Soybeans is considerably weak in comparison to previous marketing years, but has improved recently 🔴 The spread between January-March futures continues to show weakness (carry is not bullish) 🟢 Brazilian Soybean production decreased to 161 MMT (USDA) and 160.177 MMT (CONAB) Commentary & Technicals💹 *None this week* Watch the following levels 👇 🟢 Upside Targets: 13.51, 13.89, 13.98 🔴 Downside Targets: 12.92, 12.705, 12.66 Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️ This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
CBOT:ZSF2024
by GrainStats