Corn and Wheat to look for long...why?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Why? will share my thoughts in my trading analysis this week.
Technical wise yes,part of it.
Do check it out ;)
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybeans with an attractive technical set-up#Soybeans EASYMARKETS:SOYUSD
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SOYBEAN, UPSIDE REVERSAL has started. Plant your seeds now!SOYBEAN has been a long term downtrend for quite sometime. But latest data metrics is already hinting of huge turnaround soon. Massive reversal is already in order.
Long term shift has been spotted at the current. Histogram data is already suggesting weighty net positions at the current range conveying the first stage of significant price growth ahead.
This elusive signal is very rare as it took 15 months before it resurfaced. Last one was on February 2023. You know it's a big deal when this happens.
We are at the early stage of accumulation -- good news for those who like to seed now.
Good harvest awaits. A very good one.
Spotted at 1200.
Interim target at 1500
Long term: 1700
TAYOR.
Trade Safely.
WheatUSD Oanda Buying Breakout Trend ContinuesRealising my folly from my previous trade, I recognised my faults.
Recap -
1st - I traded with the Higher Time Frame and Entry Time Frame Trends, but I am actually entering on a opposing trend against the Lower Time Frame, and that is why the price never move in my intended direction after hours.
The opposing trend movement is also a sign that price is tanking, and that the Big Boys might not be into this product anymore.
2nd - Trade Breakout Trends was my thang. But I subconsciously/consciously shifted my setups to Trend Following which is to buy high and sell higher. Low winrate, needs to gather a ton of trades before the results show, stressful way to trade. I recognised my fault and now I shifted myself back to Breakout Trends.
I would like to add on also that, I would see this as a price game instead of a time frame game. But I also recognise that 50/60MA on the 15Minutes Time Frame is very powerful, and I called it Duck Hunting and I would be hunting ducks again, on the 15 Minutes Time Frame.
Would I trade on the 4H Time Frame or the Hourly? It's a price game so as long as the price is right, and it aligns with my point 1 and 2, I would.
2019SGT
22052024
Soybeans: LongToday's session marks the beginning of the second up-wave in soybeans. The ultimate target seems to be around the 1305–1310 level. This move begins now and may possibly extend to the end of June or early July.
A wide stop is recommended to allow the trade to play out. A close beyond 1189 would nullify this trade, and losses should thus be taken.
Stay tuned for updates.
Extreme Weather Sends Wheat Prices SurgingWheat plays a critical role in global agriculture and trade. Extreme weather has turned wheat prices bullish, rising more than 22% in a month after having languished for more than two years.
After reaching their lowest level in more than three years in March 2024, prices have rebounded strongly. Wheat rally is driven by extreme weather events in multiple places compounded by supply-demand imbalances.
Wheat rally is far from over. The May 2024 WASDE report painted a surprisingly positive outlook for wheat, suggesting an increase in US production. Outlook may be too optimistic, making revisions likely. Prices face risk to the upside once weather impact is comprehensively reassessed.
This paper posits a long position in wheat options benefiting not only from price appreciation and from expanding volatility.
WASDE PAINTS A POSITIVE WHEAT OUTLOOK
Recent WASDE report provides initial forecasts for 2024/25 marketing year (MY24/25) and updates projections for the current MY. These updates are crucial for estimating ending stocks which will be carried over to the next year.
Global production is expected to grow 1.3% in the upcoming MY to 798.19MT. Projections are even more optimistic for the US crop. USDA expects US wheat production in MY24/25 to be 3% higher YoY and total supplies to be almost 6% higher YoY.
Source: USDA
WHEAT CROPS ARE GETTING IMPACTED BY SEVERE WEATHER
Russia is the largest wheat exporter commanding 24% of total global exports. Russia has been hit by severe frost and cold.
Three of Russia’s key grain producing regions have declared a state of emergency, stating that May frost has caused severe damage to crops, reports Reuters . This year’s crop output will be lower. Frost linked damage follows record hot April which also harmed wheat crops.
The USDA has reduced its outlook for Russian wheat production by 3.5MT which might be an underestimate given widespread damage. WASDE report was released merely two days after Russia declared emergency, leaving USDA with little to no time to assess the impact.
STOCKS-TO-USE NEAR ALL-TIME-LOW
Data Source: PSD
Stocks to Use levels at major wheat exporters is currently at a 16-year low at 13.8%. It is expected to drop further to a record low of 12.4% in the upcoming MY24/25.
Low stocks-to-use ratio suggests that supplies are tight. Ending stocks are low relative to total consumption. Low stock-to-use ratios make prices extremely sensitive to minor shocks in physical markets.
MANAGED MONEY HAVE REVERSED COURSE ON WHEAT BEARISHNESS
Sentiment is shifting rapidly. Asset managers have been net short on wheat futures since 2022. This trend has reversed sharply over the last month with asset managers cutting short positioning by 70%. Net short positioning is at its lowest level since October 2022. Last week, asset managers continued to reduce their short positioning (down 35% over the past month) while also increasing their long positioning.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Bullish sentiment prevails with a put/call ratio of 0.57 in wheat options. Calls dominate both near-term and later contracts. Recent options market trading has been bullish for later expires.
Despite strong rally, implied volatility is lower than the levels seen last year and even during late 2022 signalling potential IV expansion.
Source: CME CVOL
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Wheat faces multifaceted upside risks stemming from weather-driven uncertainty and damage which may not have been factored into USDA’s supply outlook. Wheat supply also faces the risk of disruption from record low stocks-to-use ratio.
Wheat prices are up 22% over the last one month. A long futures position may be impacted negatively by a near-term correction. Instead, a long call position offers limited downside and substantial upside from expanding volatility and rising prices.
TradingView recently launched options suite brings traders a raft of options analytical tools. Wheat options chain can be visualised clearly.
Options IV across a range of expiries to identify key strike levels can also be visualised.
Strategy simulator enables evaluation of various strategies intuitively by visualizing the payoff based on not only price but also expansion or contraction of IV or time-decay.
The above hypothetical trade setup shows the payoff for a simple long call position in OZWU24 contract expiring on 23/August at a strike price of 750.
The premium for this option as of 17/May stood at 33 cents/bushel which results in a premium of USD 1,650 for a full options contract consisting of 5,000 bushels.
The above position breaks even at USc 783. If IV expands by 2%, the position would break even at USc 778.
Assuming constant IV, the:
• trade delivers profit of 1,850, if prices rise to 820.
• option expires worthless leading to a loss of 1,650 if prices remain below strike.
The options simulator features simple and intuitive interface enabling visualization of common options strategies. The tool also enables users to easily create and customize trading strategies.
Alternative to a long call, the bull call spread provides a pre-determined maximum profit and loss. The long call benefits from price rise and volatility expansion.
While short call offsets long call premium reducing potential losses. However, the profit potential is limited because any appreciation beyond the short call strike is negated by equivalent losses from the short position.
Bull Call Spread consists of a long call at a strike of USc 680 and a short call at a higher strike of USc 700. The width of the spread is set at 2 (700-680), a wider range can offer higher upside and reward/risk ratio, but it is only viable when the expected move is large.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Buy coffee with the trendThe price has come down to the trend line and perhaps it can reach a new All Time High in 2024.
Not much more to say tbh, The trend is your friend..
Like, comment and share if you like this idea.
Inflation & Agricultural Prices - On the Rise Again Inflation is expected to rise again because the prices of staples such as wheat, rice, corn, and soybean meal have been increasing over the last two months. Additionally, we've seen a 20% increase in soybean meal prices since the low in February.
Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options
Ticker: ZW
Minimum fluctuation:
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50
Soybean Meal Futures & Options
Ticker: ZM
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per short ton = $10.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Not So Little Brother ? NYSE:BROS +3.85%on 05/06/24 is a powerful contender for Starbucks customers. Living in southern California, I've started seeing DutchBros popping up around town (are they any good?). One thing for sure they've gotten right is their amplified focus on delivering the best customer experience. One thing that the NASDAQ:SBUX Starbucks former CEO Howard Schultz asked his former company to refocus on. It's so good that Tiktokers started making videos poking fun at the friendly nature of the Dutchbros employees.
With all of that being said, it's working for them and very well. They've opened 159 new shops in 2023, and according to Placer.AI, "While the growth of Starbucks' foot traffic has been shrinking since last year, Dutch Bros' growth in traffic has been accelerating." also, Earnest Analytics reports, Dutch Bros. accounted for 6% of U.S. consumer spending on coffee and other premium drinks. Up from 4% at the end of 2020. Last year's revenue was up about 31%
This is my Strategy:
Using Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracement, we see increased trade volume and volatility as the price rises above the SMA and towards the upper band. The price is currently $28.34. We can expect it to reach a price target of $31.16 (test strategy here) before retracement or reversal, as the shares may be near overbought status.
This will give us a $2.82 profit per share. If sold
Enter at price targets: $27.33 (low) and $29.92 (max)
Hold for the price to cross $32.90 for uptrend confirmation.
(FYI, analyst target maintains $33.00/share)
It is one of my favorite stocks, and I'll watch its performance closely this year.
Corn Futures:Evaluating Seasonal Trends Amidst Market VolatilityAs April unfolds, investors and traders in the corn futures market find themselves at a critical juncture marked by seasonal trends and heightened volatility. Historically, April has been a period of growth in corn prices, driven by various factors including planting intentions, weather conditions, and demand patterns. However, the current landscape presents a complex picture influenced by a myriad of geopolitical, climatic, and logistical disruptions.
While the overall corn production from key sources such as the US, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine has remained relatively stable, the market has experienced significant turbulence. Geopolitical conflicts, including trade disputes and tensions in key producing regions, have added layers of uncertainty, impacting supply chains and trade dynamics. Severe weather events, ranging from droughts to floods, have disrupted planting schedules and crop yields, further exacerbating market volatility. Additionally, transport issues, including congestion at ports and logistical bottlenecks, have contributed to fluctuations in day-to-day prices and overall market sentiment.
Amidst this backdrop, market participants are actively seeking long setups, anticipating a potential upswing in corn prices. Historical data indicating seasonal strength in April provides a compelling rationale for such positions. Moreover, underlying factors such as resilient demand from sectors including animal feed, ethanol production, and food processing continue to support a bullish outlook for corn.
However, navigating the corn futures market requires careful consideration of both macroeconomic factors and micro-level dynamics. Traders must remain vigilant in monitoring weather forecasts, geopolitical developments, and supply chain disruptions for timely decision-making. Additionally, leveraging technical analysis tools and risk management strategies can help mitigate the impact of market volatility and optimize trading opportunities.
In conclusion, while April historically heralds a period of price growth in corn futures, the current environment characterized by heightened volatility necessitates a nuanced approach to trading. By combining an understanding of seasonal trends with a comprehensive assessment of market fundamentals and risk factors, traders can position themselves to capitalize on potential opportunities while managing inherent uncertainties.
🔥Corn Returm Bullish Trend🔥The corn market is buzzing with positive signals today , promising strong profit potential for investors. Our assessment is spot on as corn prices are exhibiting a robust recovery trend. Across all key timeframes - 4 hours, 1 day, and 1 hour - the upward trend is evident, presenting golden opportunities for investors to seize.
Particularly noteworthy is the emergence of a compelling Order Block resistance zone on the 1-hour chart. This resistance zone signifies significant illiquidity at a specific price level, highlighting it as an ideal buying point to ride the upward trend.
Based on our in-depth analysis, we strongly believe that this is an opportune moment for investors to initiate long positions in corn. The Order Block resistance zone on the 1-hour chart serves as a key to unlocking near-term profits.
BUY LMT ZCEN24:
Entry: 444''0
STP: 439''6
TP: 458
Something Brewing?
NASDAQ:SBUX Has had a tough week (dropping -17.7%), topped with a demand from the former CEO Howard Schultz to shift focus from the current data-driven business model to a customer-centric business.
With the above being said, I believe the coffee giant will recover amid rising competition from Dtchbros $NYSE: BROS and Dunkin Donuts $FINRA: DNKN_SHORT_VOLUME.
This is my strategy:
Using Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracement, we see a large trade volume and volatility increase as the price drops below the SMA and lower band. The price is currently $73.11. We can expect it to reach a price target of $84.68 (test strategy here) before retracement or reversal, as the shares may be near overbought status.
This will give us a nice $11.50 profit per share.
Enter at price targets: $70.31 and $72.92
Hold for the price to cross $87.46 for uptrend confirmation.
Options Blueprint Series: Debit Spreads - Precision InvestingIntroduction to Options on Corn Futures
Corn Futures are one of the staple commodities traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), representing a critical component of the agricultural sector's financial instruments. Each Corn Futures contract is standardized to 5,000 bushels, and the price is quoted in USD-cents per bushel.
Contract Specifications:
Point Value: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50.
Margins: Trading on margin allows traders to leverage positions while only needing to cover a fraction of the total contract value. For Corn Futures, the initial margin requirement is set by the CME Group and varies based on market volatility: Currently $1,300 per contract at the time of this publication.
Options trading introduces another layer of complexity and opportunity. Debit spreads involve purchasing one option and selling another, which helps manage the overall cost of entering the market.
Margin for Debit Spreads:
The margin for debit spreads typically reflects the premium paid for the long position minus any premium received from the short position. This results in a significantly lower margin requirement compared to trading the underlying futures contract outright. (In the below example the net premium paid for the spread is 7.26 points = $363, which is significantly lower than $1,300).
Understanding Debit Spreads
Debit spreads are a sophisticated options trading strategy utilized primarily to achieve a targeted investment outcome while managing risk exposure. They are constructed by purchasing an option (call or put) while simultaneously selling another option of the same type (call or put) but with a different strike price, within the same expiration period. The aim is to reduce the net cost of the position, as the premium received from the sold option offsets part of the cost incurred from the bought option.
Mechanics of Debit Spreads:
Long Position: You buy an option that you expect to increase in value as the market moves in your favor.
Short Position: You sell another option with a higher strike (in the case of a call spread) or a lower strike (in the case of a put spread). This option is expected to expire worthless or decrease in value, offsetting the cost of the long position.
Advantages of Using Debit Spreads:
Defined Risk: The maximum loss on a debit spread is limited to the net premium paid plus transaction costs. This makes it easier to manage risk, especially in volatile markets.
Potential for Profit: Although the profit potential is capped at the difference between the strike prices minus the net debit paid, these spreads can still offer attractive returns relative to the risk undertaken.
Lower Cost of Entry: Compared to buying a single option, spreads typically require a lower upfront investment, making them accessible to a wider range of traders.
This strategic application is what we'll explore next in the context of Corn Futures, where market conditions suggest a potential breakout.
Application in Corn Futures
For traders looking to harness the volatility in the agricultural sector, especially in commodities like corn, debit spreads can be a precision tool for structured trading. Given the current trading range of Corn Futures, with prices oscillating between 424 cents and 448 cents per bushel for a number of weeks, a strategic setup can be envisioned aiming for an upward breakout towards 471 cents, a resistance level indicated by Sell UnFilled Orders (UFOs).
Strategy Implementation with Debit Spreads:
Long Call Option: Buying a call option with a strike price near the lower end of the current range (450) positions traders to benefit from potential upward movements. Premium paid is 10.39 ($519.5)
Short Call Option: Simultaneously, selling a call option with a strike price at 475 cents caps the maximum profit but significantly reduces the cost of entering the trade. This strike is chosen because it aligns closely with the expected UFO resistance level, enhancing the probability of the short option expiring worthless. Premium received is 3.13 ($156.5).
The net cost of the spread ($519.5 - $156.5 = $363) represents the total risk. We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts.
Setting up the Trade
To potentially capitalize on the anticipated market movement for Corn Futures, our debit spread strategy will involve a detailed setup of options trades based on specific strike prices that align with market expectations and technical analysis. This step-by-step guide will provide clarity on how to effectively enter and manage this options strategy.
Trade Details:
Long Call Option: Buy a call option with a strike price of 450. This option is chosen as it is near the current upper boundary of the trading range, providing a favorable entry point as we anticipate a breakout.
Short Call Option: Sell a call option with a strike price of 475. This strike is selected based on its proximity to the identified resistance level at 471, suggesting a high likelihood that the price may not exceed this level before expiration.
Cost and Profit Analysis:
Net Premium Paid: $363 as discussed above.
Break-even Point: Long strike price (450) plus the net premium paid = 457.26.
Maximum Profit: The maximum profit for this debit spread is capped at the difference between the two strike prices minus the net premium paid = 475 – 450 – 7.26 = 17.74 = $887.
Maximum Loss: The maximum risk is limited to the net premium paid.
Risk Management
By entering a debit spread, traders not only define their maximum risk but also set clear targets for profitability based on established market thresholds. This methodical approach ensures that even if the anticipated price movement does not fully materialize, the financial exposure remains controlled.
Risk Management Techniques:
Position Sizing: Determine the appropriate size of the position based on overall portfolio risk and individual risk tolerance.
Stop-Loss Orders: Although the maximum loss is capped by the nature of the debit spread (the net premium paid), stop-loss orders can be used if the underlying asset moves against the trader.
Rolling the Spread: If market conditions change or the initial price target is reached earlier than expected, consider 'rolling' the spread.
Adjusting the Trade:
If the price of Corn Futures approaches the short strike price (475) faster than anticipated, and market sentiment indicates further upward potential, the short call option can be bought back while a new higher strike call can be sold. This adjustment aims to extend the profitable range of the spread without increasing the original risk by much.
Conversely, if the price seems unlikely to reach the 450 mark, reassess the viability of keeping the spread open. It may be prudent to close the position early to preserve capital if fundamental market factors have shifted negatively.
Importance of Continuous Monitoring:
Regularly monitor market conditions, including factors like weather reports, agricultural policies, and economic indicators that significantly impact corn prices.
Stay updated with technical analysis charts and adjust strategies according to new resistance and support levels identified.
Effective risk management not only protects from downside risk but also enhances the potential for profitability by adapting to changing market conditions.
Conclusion
The strategic use of debit spreads in Corn Futures options trading offers a balanced approach to leverage market opportunities while maintaining strict control over potential risks.
Recap of Key Points:
Corn Options on Futures: Understanding the contract specifics is crucial for informed trading decisions.
Debit Spreads: These allow traders to benefit from expected price movements with reduced upfront costs and limited risk.
Trade Setup: Focused on a potential breakout from the 448-424 range aiming towards 471, utilizing 450 and 475 strikes for the long and short calls respectively.
Risk Management: Emphasizes the importance of position sizing, potential use of stop-loss orders, and the flexibility to adjust or roll the spread according to market changes.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Sugar run to 0.213Wait move up in channel to 0.213.
Down channel. Wait target upper line. My target 0.50% Fibo.
Massive H&S for Sugar? Right shoulder forming?Is this a massive Head and Shoulders pattern for Sugar? The head and left shoulder are complete but will the right shoulder form and head to the mid 7s?
Time will tell and we'll know by early 2025.
This all started in June 2014.
Wheat: Bulls are Back! 🐂Wheat is once again showing its bullish side and is taking the first upward step out of the sideways movement of recent weeks. In the further course, the price should now continue the blue wave (c) and complete the superordinate wave A in turquoise. Following this, we expect a sell-off. Within the framework of our alternative scenario, however, it remains 37% likely that the price will once again fall below the support level at USX 495.25 in order to make a lower low of wave Alt. (b).
Wheat Holding at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat Aligning with SupportWheat 2 years after topping out at the PCZ of a Bearish Shark that initiated a downtrend in 2022, has now come back to the top side of the range wheat traded in between the years of 2016 and 2020 before ultimately confirming the bottom at the PCZ of a Bullish Deep Gartley in 2019 and breaking free to the upside of the trading range in late 2020.
Now that wheat has found its way back down here at this previous resistance zone, we can see that it has formed a Bullish Bat structure on the way down which aligns with the old resistance and that it is currently attempting to be supported by the 200-period moving average on the 2-week timeframe. We can likely assume that as the Baltic Dry Index continues higher, wheat will regain it's 2021 highs along with many other agricultural goods and that this will have an inflationary effect overall.
In the related ideas section I will leave a setup for BDRY which is the ETF that tracks the Baltic Dry Index and I will also leave the DBA which is an ETF that holds the futures contracts for various different agricultural goods such as corn, wheat, sugar, and more related items. I will also leave setups for two Dry Bulk and Containership Charterers.
Lastly I will provide my harmonic Inflation Rate projections.
Can wheat break above previous trendline support?Wheat
Technicals (May)
Wheat futures shot higher overnight but got stonewalled by what was previously trendline support (now resistance). A failure to close out above 550-555 keeps the Bear camp in control with a potential retest of the lows still in play. Further escalation in the Middle East could turn the tide back to Bullish.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 573 1/2-575***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 537-540***, 525**
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans testing key supportSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures broke lower but found support at our 4-star support pocket which we've outlined in recent reports as 1128 1/2-1133 1/2. The Bulls need to see this pocket defended, a failure to do so could accelerate the selling pressure. Below this support pocket and prices are back in uncharted territory, the next support level would be the psychologically significant $11.00 level.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175***
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****, 1100**
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down, that
is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Drift LowerSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures attempted to hold ground yesterday, but it lacked conviction. Prices are giving back those gains in today’s trade. 1155-1160 is the first resistance pocket the Bulls need to overcome to help spark a bigger relief rally. A failure to do so keeps the potential for new lows alive and well.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1155-1160, 1170-1175
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat Breaks Below SupportWheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat futures broke lower yesterday, after struggling to maintian price action above trendline support in the previous two sessions. This has the Bear camp back in the driver’s seat as we officially enter the back half of the week. A close back above 550-555 would neutralize the recent bearish action.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 573 1/2-575, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 537-540*, 525
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Under PressureSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures broke back below support yesterday which accelerated the selling pressure and keeps the door open for a retest of the February lows in play, that comes in from 1128 1/2-1133 1/2.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175***
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat Futures Riding a Fine LineWheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat futures traded in a wide range yesterday, on both sides of unchanged. This morning, prices are attempting to firm as the market revisits our pivot pocket from 550-555. The Bulls will want to see consecutive closes back above this pocket to spur a move back towards the recent highs. A failure to do so could put the Bears in the driver's seat.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 573 1/2-575***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 537-540***, 525**
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
