Get started

Agricultural Commodities

The jury is still out on the impact of El NiñoWeather has always been a key factor influencing the outlook for major commodities, especially agricultural commodities. The arrival of El Niño in June 2023 has led to a wide divergence in the performance across agricultural commodities. As discussed in our previous blog “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?”, the effects of El Niño include specific wind patterns across the Pacific Ocean, heavy rain in South America, and droughts in Australia and parts of Asia including India and Indonesia. This is why certain commodities such as cocoa, sugar, soybean oil and grains tend to depict a price positive environment following an El Niño phenomena. So far in 2023 – cocoa, sugar and cotton have been key beneficiaries of the El Niño weather phenomena whilst wheat, corn and soybeans have posted a weaker performance. How is the El Niño evolving? With the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting more than a 95% probability of El Niño continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter through January - March 2024 , chances are high that we continue to see further weather abnormalities over the coming months. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter1. The main El Niño monitoring metric showed the average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—was 1.3˚Celsius (2.3˚Fahrenheit) above the long-term average in August, up from 1˚C in July1. The whole ocean (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, Artic and Southern Ocean ) was over 1˚C above the 20th-century average in August, the first time that’s happened in the 174-year record2. An important aspect of ocean changes is the sea level height. Presently there is a strong ocean sea level rise in the easterly tropical Pacific, a clear sign that El Niño is active3. The changes in the ocean heat content are mainly due to the expansion and rise of the strong subsurface warm pool. This also causes the sea level height to increase, usually associated with warmer waters. Agricultural commodities price response to El Niño will vary The growing of agricultural products is sensitive to weather patterns. For some crops, El Niño could boost production, while for others it could damage production. This is because the drift in warm water across the Pacific moves’ evaporation and rain such that Southeast Asia and Australia tend to get drier while Peru and Ecuador tend to receive more precipitation. Should the weather event intensify, it could be a significant catalyst for price gains in cocoa, soybean oil, sugar, and grains as discussed in “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?” blog. Cocoa and sugar lead the commodity scoreboard in El Niño ’s slipstream Cocoa has been an important beneficiary of the El Niño. The concentration of supply in West Africa, nearly 70% of global supply4, underlines the outsized impact of the region’s weather patterns on the world’s cocoa supplies and prices. The emerging El Niño is likely to hamper the next main crop that begins in October as it tends to bring dry and hot conditions to West Africa. This comes at a time when heavy rains in West Africa have triggered the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) and the spread of Black pod diseases. The diseases alongside the high cost of inputs, have not spared the two leading producers (i.e., Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana) and affected their volume of production5. Despite high cocoa prices, demand evident from cocoa grinding continues to rise in Asia and the US6. Sugar has also benefitted from the emergence of El Niño as lower rainfall in Asia, namely India and Thailand have resulted in lower sugar production. However, we expect further upside for sugar prices to be capped as Brazil (the world’s largest producer and exporter) is likely to fill the gap. Production in Brazil’s main Centre- South (CS) growing region between the start of the crop year in April and mid-August already amounted to 22.7mn tons, which is up 22% over the same period last year7. What’s more, the sugar mix increased to 51.1% in H1 September, up from 50.7% in H2 August signalling that Brazilian mills continue to favour sugar production over ethanol amidst higher sugar prices5. Extreme weather conditions in China have reduced domestic supplies. China is also planning to release 1.3mn tons of sugar from its reserves, to increase domestic supplies and stabilise prices4. Wheat prices stand to benefit as key producers to face the impact of El Niño On the other end of the spectrum, grains (namely wheat, corn and soybeans) continued to struggle as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) outlined a more bearish outlook for corn while bullish for wheat. The corn harvest is progressing well with 15% of the crop harvested, up from 11% at the same stage last year and also above the five-year average of 13%8. Moscow’s revocation of the secure grain’s corridor through the Black Sea, alongside the Russian attacks on key infrastructure along the Danube River in Ukraine, have lowered grains exports from Ukraine by 25% over the prior year. Yet wheat prices have fallen sharply this year as Russia’s record crop is enabling it to ship huge volumes to world markets. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has likewise reduced its crop forecast for the region by 1.5 million tons to 8.5 million tons. Most of Australia is expected to face warm and dry conditions over the next three months9, so further downward revisions are on the cards. Argentinian farmers are also battling with a drought. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has already warned that the crop in 2023/24 could be impaired if there is no rainfall in the near future. As the prospects for the wheat crop amongst major producer countries are becoming increasingly weak, we expect wheat to benefit from these rising tailwinds. Conclusion There has been a wide divergence within the commodity linked Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) flows since the start of the year. Agriculture linked ETFs have seen US$458mn worth of outflows while energy linked commodity ETFs raked in US$1.2Bn worth of inflows10. Agriculture linked commodity ETFs likely faced outflows owing to profit taking. We continue to expect plenty of upside in select agricultural commodities as the impact of the El Niño is likely to intensify over the upcoming winter. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ICEUS:CC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In RussiaI write this as I listen to Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto in D Major on the excellent Shen Yun Zuopin platform. It seemed quite fitting for watching the world burn. When you hear propaganda on English social media on a Saturday night that a group of mercenaries are raiding Moscow to overthrow Putin, you absolutely must take what you are hearing and seeing with an entire box of Maldon. Before we begin, I will provide you with the DXY Monthly, which shows the topography more clearly than the daily bars I use for the moving graph: Remember it wasn't even 10 days ago that the US Military was running an exercise in the streets in the United States and the QAnon cultists/CIA campaign were trying to tell people it was because Donald Trump was about to overthrow Joe Biden. The United States has three significant abilities that exceed its direct military power and are why it's able to empire around the world: 1. Masters of propaganda and manipulation 2. A stranglehold on the world economy via the Petrodollar and its oil/LNG production 3. Intelligence, subversion, corruption, and cyber warfare operations No matter what you hear, the war in Ukraine directly involves NATO because NATO member countries are all over the area West of Russia and Belarus, and Washington is the leader of NATO. Wagner PMC and Prigozhin himself are rather savvy propagandists and tacticians. They previously used the narrative that there was much discontent between themselves, the superheroes of the Bakhmut campaign, and the Russian military's old guard, to bait Ukraine into attacking. The end result was a lot of dead UAF and a captured city for the Russian Federation. Moreover, many things right now serve as a distraction to keep the world's eyes and ears away from what's going on inside of mainland China and the coming fall of the Chinese Communist Party. Perhaps Xi Jinping will be this decade's Mikhail Gorbachev and will one night dump the CCP, much to the consternation and dismay of a totally clueless majority mankind. This matter, and the persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong by the former Jiang Zemin regime, which Xi has directly contested since he took power a decade ago (this is what the "Anti-corruption campaign" is really annihilating), is what you really need to focus on, rather than "World War III" propaganda. So, you shouldn't go too hard on Sunday and Monday selling equity futures and getting long on gold because you've been told on Twitter that World War III is coming. What you want to do is take a calm and rational look at what can happen. And what can happen entirely revolves around the US Dollar. Right now, the USD looks as if it will pump, rather than dump. Like it or not, it looks like it's going to pump, rather than dump. But the confirmation for the trade comes down to whether or not DXY can breach $105.883. If it can breach $105.883 either in the remaining six trading days of June or in the early portion of July, then we have two scenarios, in my opinion: Whether the target is only the $108-$109 Point of Concern Whether the target is $115-$118-$120 above the '22 high. Frankly speaking, if you look at yearly bars for the DXY: Then literally $135 is en route before 2030. But if $109 is all we have today then $98 is incoming. Generally speaking, it's really worth remembering that USD up = risk off on equities. What's important in life isn't making money in the markets, but it's your family, your friends, your heart, your soul, and your future. Trading should just be a vector for your personal and spiritual development. Gamblers are going to lose more than their shirts, you hear? See the additional calls below for more broad spectrum macro analysis of the situation.
TVC:DXY
by LordWrymouth
3
Is Corn Ready To Pop?Last week, we were looking for a potential bottom in corn. Since then, we’ve mostly traded sideways to slightly higher. However, the end of this week brings a “triple-witching” event - the end of the month, the end of the fiscal quarter, and the quarterly grain stocks report all occur on Friday. In last quarter’s grain stocks report, the market sold off fairly sharply as corn stocks were reportedly 54% higher on a year-over-year basis. The contract’s resilience in defending the lows is very encouraging considering the positioning of managed funds. In the chart below, you can see that managed funds have amassed a substantial short position over the course of the last 6 weeks. As of last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds held 319,079 short positions. Meanwhile, prices have maintained a very tight 15-20 cent trading range. As such, there is significant fund rebalancing in Friday’s session, it may induce a short-covering rally. What does that mean? In order to exit a short position, the contract holder will have to buy a contract. If there is substantial buying volume, it will press prices higher, and force short-positions to exit ultimately resulting in a rally. The question then becomes - how high can we go? Considering that the December corn contract was unable to close above 500 a single time in the month of August or September thus far, that may be an ambitious initial target. In order to retest 500, and ultimately our 502-506 ½ 3-star resistance pocket, we will have to surpass 3-star resistance between 489 and 491. If we manage to trade through 491, it could lay the foundation for December corn to surpass 500 once again. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
What Drives Soybean Prices: El Niño, Geopolitics, or SeasonalityEl Niño means little boy in Spanish. The fishermen in Latin America observed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s around Christmas. El Niño can cause 50% variation in local weather in regions growing essential crops like beans, corn, and coffee. Soybean is a giant in global trade. It ranks among the top comprising more than 10% of the total value traded annually. Soybean is used for edible oils, biofuels, and livestock feed. This paper introduces the impact of El Niño on bean prices, geopolitical risk in beans given its idiosyncratic market structure, and seasonality. Medium to longer term impact on bean prices will be dictated by severity of weather, demand, and energy prices. However, in the near term, record Brazilian output and ongoing harvests in China, India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada will weigh down on bean prices. To gain from weakening prices, this paper posits a hypothetical short position in CME Soybean Futures expiring in November 2023 (ZSX2023) with an entry at USc 1296/bushel combined with a target at USc 1188/bushel and hedged by a stop at USc 1368/bushel, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.5x. EL NIÑO IS A RECURRING CLIMATE PHENEMENON El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate phenomenon which has significant global impact on precipitation and temperature. ENSO is the result of the natural cyclical interaction between equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmosphere. These interactions lead to climate fluctuations across more than 60% of the world. ENSO has a major effect on rainfall and temperature variation. In some regions, such as those closest to the tropical pacific, ENSO can result in 50% of the total variation in local weather. These regions are often the most essential for important crops like bean, corn, and coffee. These interactions oscillate between warming and cooling periods leading to the ENSO cycle plotted below. The pattern recurs every two to seven years. Notably, the frequency of the ENSO cycle and the intensity of its effects have increased over the last fifty years due to global warming. As a result, ENSO has an outsized influence on global economy given its potency of delivering shocks to agriculture. El Niño are periods of warm ocean temperatures (highlighted in red) in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific regions. La Niña are periods with cooler ocean temperatures (marked in green above) in Central and Eastern Pacific zones. Periods with no major deviation from average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are considered normal weather conditions. Each El Niño or La Niña phase persists for two years on average. However, a longer-than-expected phase of El Niño (like the one in 2015) can lead to a much more significant impact on agricultural markets owing to larger drawdown on inventories. THE BEAN IS EXPOSED TO GEOPOLITICS The Americas comprise >80% of total global production. Top producers are Brazil, the US, Paraguay, and Argentina. These nations are also the top bean exporters. China is world's largest importer. It mops up 60% of global import demand. Beans in China is primarily used to feed its massive livestock population. Unlike staple grains, the bean industry is highly centralized given the structure of the sea-borne market. Consequently, they are prone to shocks from disruptions such as trade restrictions and geo-politics. In 2017, soybean was caught in the crossfire in US-China tariff war. Back then, China placed a 25% tariff on beans imported from the US. This drove demand for Brazilian soybeans as the US ones were rendered expensive for Chinese importers. The trade friction adversely impacted the US, to an extent that is feltto this day. Since then, US exports have been far lower while Brazilian exports have gradually expanded. It has also led to structural shifts in bean usage. SEASONALITY IS PREDICTABLE IN BEAN PRICE BEHAVIOUR As previously published , seasonality in beans is driven by the harvest cycle. North American crop is harvested between September and November while South America harvests from March to June. Bean prices decline after harvesting cycles. Distinct price patterns can be discerned by analysing seasonality. Prices rise through the first half of the year from January to June as inventories deplete. Then, they rapidly decline following harvesting in Argentina and Brazil. EL NIÑO FAVORABLY IMPACTS BEANS El Niño’s effect on beans is consistent. Usually, extreme weather typically creates havoc to crop and crop yield. But not so in the case of soybeans. Interestingly, research shows that El Niño favourably impacts American soybeans farmers leading to a 3.5% increase in yield on average. Increased rainfall and lower temperature in the Americas caused by El Niño explains this favourable weather impact on the crop. As Weston Anderson, et al. highlight , the impact is most significant during peak El Niño which is expected next year. While American farmers benefit from benign weather, Asian growers suffer adverse effects of El Niño, resulting in declining yield and production in Asia. OUTLOOK FOR BEANS Taking into consideration the drivers outline as above, larger harvest is expected in Brazil in 2024. In 2023, Argentinian harvest was significantly smaller due to unfavourable weather, and this is expected to recover back to its usual levels. The USDA is forecasting a larger harvest in China in 2024. However, peak El Niño could negatively impact Chinese crop leading to spike in import demand. Seasonal trends point to a winter rally in bean prices ahead. However, historical analysis shows that El Niño years result in a higher-than-average yield in soybean. Combining the effect of (a) record Brazilian output, plus (b) El Niño fuelled greater yields leading to abundant harvest in 2024, the higher-than-average yield in soybean could cause a potential glut. Bean oversupply will cut short a winter price rally. Worse still, a glut could make the post-harvest price crash next year much more severe. SIGNALS FOR BEAN PRICES FROM DERIVATIVES MARKETS The commitment of trader’s report points to declining net long positions by managed money inching towards lows observed during May earlier this year. Even the options market hints at bearish slant with put-call ratio at 1.13x within rising open interest build up in puts in the near term. Since mid-September, data from CFTC shows that bean options traders are positioning themselves against fall in prices as they have added 18,079 lots in puts versus 13,090 lots in calls. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP With more harvests coming onstream, soybean prices will come under increasing downward pressure in the near term. To gain from crumbling bean prices, a hypothetical short position in CME Soybean Futures expiring in November ( ZSX2023 ) with an entry at USc 1296/bushel and a target at USc 1188/bushel, hedged by a stop at USc 1368/bushel is expected to deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.5x. Each soybean futures contract provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 metric tons) and is quoted in US cents per bushel. Each tick represents one-fourth of a cent (USc 0.25) per bushel resulting in USD12.50 in P&L. • Entry: 1296 • Target: 1188 • Stop: 1368 • Profit-at-Target (hypothetical): USD 5,400 (1296 – 1188 = 108; 432 ticks x 12.50 = 5,400) • Loss-at-Stop (hypothetical): USD 3,600 (1296 – 1368 = -72; -288 ticks x 12.50 = -3,600) • Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.5x REFERENCES Nature ScienceDirect MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by mintdotfinance
2
DWARIKESH SUGAR - SWING TRADING FOR 10-15 DAYS" PARALLEL CHANNEL BREAK OUT " High Volume Based Entry level - 98-100 SL - 90 (with previous candle below level) Targets - 107,113,118+ Market Capitalization of Dwarikesh Sugar stock is Rs 1,923.50 Cr. #DWARIKESHSUGAR Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:DWARKESH
by Jagadheesh_JP
29
Coffee: Caffeine's about to hit ☕The coffee price has been moving downward since February last year within the framework of the superior wave Y in turquoise. In our primary expectation, however, this descent should not last much longer. In the orange target zone between USX 144.40 and USX 136.40, it should come to the low, followed by subsequent rises. Only falling below the zone would put a spoke in the wheel. Then, the price would have to drop much further within our 35% probable alternative before the reversal sets in.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by MarketIntel
Balrampur Chini [Seasonal Swing] #Sugarso here is my seasonal swing pick balrampur chini you might have noticed that the price of sugar stocks generally rises during winter season & on chart its forming a classical Ascending Triangle Pattern.... here is my plan if it comes near support trendline after a good candle i will enter with 50% and rest on breakout of resistance, Or fully on Breakout Do consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision this is only for educational purpose.
NSE:BALRAMCHIN
by Stoictrader1811