Agriculture
short the heck out of DEC.soybean meal (SM1!)super promising trade of 1st quarter short the heck out of soybean meal (SM1!) overview of past weeks ytd www.agweb.com and upcoming action www.agweb.com 4Hr DAILY WEEKLY im personally bearish meal due to the huge runup. www.agweb.com "South America Conditions - The 2018 Argentina bean crop is one rain event away from being significantly large. This could hurt exports for the US crop forcing a larger carryout. A supply disruption in South America is really necessary for a significant price increase at this point.
Guaranteed Profitability - I know beans are profitable now and corn is not, so I want to lock in prices." my target of december 2018 contract is below last years low of 2017 at or near 300. aLSO, MY FIRST CHART INDICATOR (ENI) IS ABOUT READY TO BEGIN ENTRY INTO RED ZONE IN A FEW DAYS.
AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE.
Agriculture stocks to grow your wealthHello penny stocks followers,
I am sorry about that I might a bit side-tracked to the cryptocurrencies trading recently.
Here are two penny stocks to buy & hold for longer term.
Do you know both SM1 & A2M was struggling in last 84 days?
A2M just slightly continues to soar after the resistance zone breakout.
In the other hand, SM1 is struggling at the descending triangle pattern. It is at the point 4'.
The 20 & 50 EMA crossover may give you some hints. I may say the safer entry point to be above the previous high (point 3') or above the top of red ichimoku cloud.
I may analyse a bit more penny stocks before Australia Day !!!
October 4 Earnings: Monsanto: Will Growth Overcome Competition?Monsanto's broad array of product offering in the Agricultural space has lead the market in recent years.
The company's Roundup Ready 2 Soybean treatment has been chosen to treat just under 50% of the US Acreage for 2018.
Monsanto's (expected) future integration with Bayer should boost guidance prospects.
However, with mounting expenses with product rollout and legal expenses with the Bayer merger, profits should be under pressure.
The company's sales growth is impressive, but with the continued Agricultural slump in the US, sales guidance should be lackluster.
I'm starting Monsanto with a $110.00 Price Target throughout 2018.
Stop positioned at $125.00 but remains flexible with the broader market.
Corn Preparing to Turn?Corn has been decelerating for quite a few months now and is currently rejecting key resistance (monthly 200ema/200ma + monthly fibs) with a high-test.
Price action seems to be hinting at a turn from here in the near future down to $302.00, the September '09 low that sent us into an enormous rally to form the '12 highest high. I'm watching for a rejection of this 09' level over the next year or two that should align with the bottom in wheat. I expect a HUGE rally following that bottom to retest $746.00
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Thanks!!
Agriculture at the resistance. Consider going short.DBA (Agriculture ETF) is touching two resistances now so there is a possibility that it will fall down again. But wait until it bounces off and starts dipping.
Precious Metals continue to UnderperformThe fall from the July high is gathering momentum, with prices extending lower into the end of the year.
This is keeping both Gold and Silver under pressure, suggesting investors will maintain an underweight stance.
Whilst prices are also weakening relative to the broad based Commodities Index, managers are now moving cash into both Base Metals and Energy.
Agriculture. meanwhile, is Underweight.
Wheat: We can buy on a breakout of September 22nd's highThis setup should yield a nice up move here, if we see a breakout of this range.
We could enter prematurely, risking a drop under today's low, if the day turns up on Monday as well, but that would be riskier, so if you do it, only take a smaller risk position, like 0.25% exposure.
Today's action accross the board points to a major turning point in the markets, so don't miss out on opportunities like this.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
ZC: Corn has a new potential uptrend signal hereLet's add to longs at market open, there's a chance a second 'Time at mode' signal confirms on close here. Move all stops to Sept. 12th's low, and open a 1% risk long, if we don't retest the new entry stop on close, we can expect a rally to 364'6 by or before October 25th.
We should see a strong rally from here, and at least 3-4% more upside, before a pause in it.
This is an example of the type of work we do with my signals group, so if you're interested in a free 1 week trial, message me.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Wheat descending wedge!Wheat appears to be nearing the completion of a major ascending wedge that spans 4-5 years. Best way to take advantage of this would be a wide entry with a safe stop once a bottoming pattern appears on the daily/weekly. My guess is we won't see a bottom until late 2016 or maybe early 2017.
Martin Armstrong has posted about the global *cooling* (not warming) that should begin to impact crop production sending prices sky high. This data adds quite a bit of fundamental confluence on top of the beautiful techs, making the trade even more enticing.
Jim Rogers also sees agriculture *prices* improving in the future in his recent interview with Real Vision TV. He has been saying this for a few years now but also admits he's often VERY early to a trade.
I'll be watching this trade closely for a bottom, going to be a good one!
SOYBEANS /ZS trend reversal started?soybeans and many other ags have rallied after dumping on the crop report and is possibly making a trend reversal after months of bearish action. I'm looking to pick up a long on a healthy pullback.
130 target areaLooking for 130 area as a target of the recent decline in coffee prices.
Overall uptrend as indicated in upsloping orange trendline hasn't been broken yet
Spreads are weak as well.
DBA weekly : have some patience...DBA had a retrace after breaking out of this declining wedge. I am now watching price behaviour around this base area and setting some alerts ( 21.00USD ). If the macro assessment is correct we should see Agrobusiness follow the pro-inflation-fear environment, which means that precious metals, commodities and Agrobusiness should provide considerabel gains in to 2017 and 2018. Long-term appreciation expected. However one has to have enormous patience. Once the big players catch up on this ( they did already in Gold and Silver ) we should be well positioned.
AGU ( AGRIUM ) - weekly chart promising.AGU looks even a bit better than MOS. Price has found support at the 92.00USD area and shows continuing demand. Long-term bullish and a good alternative to the crowded Gold bug stocks :-)
Long term soy bean contract spread narrowingThis trade is to try and take advantage of my thinking that the price between the two contracts will become less. This trade could see a large loss, before we see gains, but has a nice margin relief.
Still waiting, beware bulls; risk reward not so greatPro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
Contra (Chart):
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
IMHO I start looking into selling put spreads out in August or September. For example the U16 110/100 p spread.
Due to the negative put skew, 1x2s also work great IMHO (selling the one buying the 2s are also an interesting idea).
Agriculture set to Boom -- Monsanto Green Cup of TeaAgriculture is lagging rest of Commodity field. However, the Ag index is starting to warm up.
Monsanto Cup Pattern
TGT 1 = 100
TGT 2 = 108.50
Agriculture set to BOOM -- Monsanto Measuring a Steep Deep CupCommodities Booming
Agriculture is lagging for now. However, green shoots are starting to percolate.
Cup Pattern
Target 1 100
Target 2 108.50
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016
Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future.
Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
