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Agriculture

SB#11 - Get ready to “dive the five” I still do not like longs on most of ags, unless you aim short term and get orthodox with your stops. Since my previous post about one month ago (see link below), SB11 is keeping its pace moving downstairs. At this point in time I see no signs of reversal, instead, my reading says we are about to “dive the five”. What comes after that remains to be seen. It is true that technically this fourth wave could hike up to the 13.50-ish level, however, I don’t think going long at this point has a good risk/reward ratio. I believe one would be better off building shorts from here and keeping an eye on possible DX reversal.
S
by againstthegrain
2
CT#11 still bearish long term - possible reversal aheadHere is my contribution to the nice ichimoku analysis done by Kumowizard and posted at www.tradingview.com The wave count on the weekly chart reinforces the idea that bears will keep control on the mid/long-term. At this point in time it is pretty safe to assume that intermediate-3 is consolidated retracing the full 2.618 ratio and suggesting this would be an extended 3. Wave 4 retraces nicely at 0.236 times wave 3 and the AWE oscillator indicates that a 3-5 divergence is possible. Wave 5, when 3 is extended, can develop between 1 times wave 1 (equality to wave 1), 0.618 times wave 1 or (less likely in this case) 1.618 times wave 1. On the daily chart, a couple of alternate count is possible; however, my preferred count would the one shown in orange with minor wave 3 under development. Like Kumowizard mention in his analysis, an upward (most likely brief) movement could be possible as part of lesser degree wave count (not shown on chart above) suggesting a corrective wave 4 would be under way. Takeaways: If the ongoing Intermediate 5 and Minor 3 materialize, it could lead us into a more consistent upward move/correction, but then again, alternate counts are possible therefore feel free to contribute.
CShort
by againstthegrain
1
SB #11 possible A-B-C correctionThe awesome oscillator shows the downward trend is over by divergence between the 3 and 5. The next move appears to be the a-b-c correction that would form a wave A. Fibo ratios are in place suggesting the next possible targets. Weekly chart turning bullish with MACD divergence. I know the big drop today is somehow scaring (good volume tho), so to be on the “safe-side” I would suggest buying at levels close to today’s high with a stop-loss somewhere on the channeling (in light gray). Bottom line: The end of a downward trend is clear and it gives a good opportunity to trade a correction wave with reasonably low risk.
S
by againstthegrain
2
ZS upward "C" wave to come (???)Soybean has been a tough market for those traders seeking volatility as it has been on a “wait-and-see” mode for a couple of month now. I do not expect any major movement on the short/mid run; however, I do see a possibility to “widen” the current trading range. The wave counting above suggests that a B wave would be completed (or nearly completed) and a possible upward C wave would be on the radar screen. For those (unlike me) seeking short-term opportunities it may be a good commodity to keep track on. I am still holding my long position with stops on a range around 920, although I confess the weekly chart does not look that bullish. In fact, the MACD divergence is killing my sleep lately. See my comments on ZC at:
CBOT:ZSH2015Long
by againstthegrain
2
We may see a “Pop” in Corn (???)(Forgive the terrible joke, but I couldn’t hold myself). The 50% retracement on Corn suggests that a minor correction would be over making possible an “a-b-c” counting thus getting ready to resume the upward trend. However, at this point in time, it would be wise to keep an alternate count in sight as this correction could easily (and most likely, in my opinion) extend to the 0.618 fibo. I say this, as most indicators are either bearish or neutral on the short/mid run. Ichimoku, for instance, is “cloudy”. Unlike soybeans (that has been on sideways for days now), corn has provided some interesting ups and downs for day-traders. For the long-term however I am still bullish and will keep holding my long position as long as prices stay within the 4-350 trading range, although I strongly suggest a stop-loss at levels close to 330 for money management matters. Just for the records, I am a position trader (i.e. no day-trading).
CBOT:ZCH2015Long
by againstthegrain
1
Soybeans (ZS) Bottoming on Weekly ChartZS has found major support at around the 900 level, as seen by the weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD all turning up from oversold levels. The 900 round figure coincides with major bottoms in 2009 and 2010, along with near bottoming activity in late 2008. ZS appears to want to target roughly 1000 in the near-term where downchannel resistance can be expected to hold initially. Feel free to visit stks.co for today's technical analysis on $ZS_F, $ZW_F, $CT_F, $ZC_F, $NG_F, $SI_F, $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $USDX, $BUXL, $KC_F, $NFLX. Website: tradablepatterns.com FB: facebook.com Stocktwits: stocktwits.com Twitter: twitter.com Linkedin: www.linkedin.com YouTube: www.youtube.com Google+: google.com Email: info@tradablepatterns.com
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by TradablePatterns
Corn (ZC) At Long-Term SupportZC has been sold off stronger than most commodities, and its weekly Stochastics is at an extreme low reading. Note how it together with weekly MACD are beginning to turn up. The daily chart including today's action illustrates this bottoming action more clearly, but I've profiled this weekly chart to point out how ZC is currently beneath a long term down channel support line, which I don't expect to persist for long with ZC trading at an important support zone. Although the weekly RSI appears to still turn down, keep in mind the lag introduced by weekly chart signals. Visit goo.gl for today's technical analysis on $NG_F, $ZC_F, $USDJPY, $VIX_F, $NQ_F, $NFLX, $TSLA, $ES_F, $USDX, $EURUSD, $EURCHF, $CT_F Website: tradablepatterns.com FB: facebook.com Stocktwits: stocktwits.com Twitter: twitter.com Linkedin: www.linkedin.com YouTube: www.youtube.com Google+: google.com Email: info@tradablepatterns.com
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by TradablePatterns
2