EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult.
This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies.
With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent.
For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
Agriculture
EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult.
This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies.
With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent.
For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
DBA: Bullish Abandoned Baby on Agriculture Futures ETFThe DBA Agriculture Fund is an ETF that has futures exposure to various different commodities including: Wheat, Corn, Sugar, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, Cotton, Soybeans, Coffee, and others. As of right now the fund has recently pulled back due to a Bearish Test of the Bearish Bat PCZ but during this time it has formed what looks to be a Cup with Handle and has confirmed a Bullish Abandoned Baby off the 200-Day SMA with Bullish Divergence on both the MACD and RSI. With all these factors being considered along with the recent dramatic increase in charter rates across the containership and dry bulk segments, I think it is very likely that we will see the pricing of these commodities rise once more and likely break significantly above any of the bearish zones.
Deepak Fertiliser Attempting Weekly Breakout Deepak Fertiliser is consolidating in a range since a year and have tried multiple time to break the resistance area.
In a weekly candle it attempted a breakout from major supply zone and formed a doji candle above it which is a candle of confusion. Pice above dojo candle will be confirmed breakout or it can once retest in retest zone and than give a breakout
CORN is trying to establish a base for an upside counter-swingAfter a long period of sideways trading within MJT and MNT lines , Corn is trying to establish a base for an upside counter-swing. A clear close above 508 will confirm it and clear the path for an extended rally. Today USDA will release the weekly export sales report which could be the catalyst that ignite this counter-swing.
SUGARUSD Confirmed the Bullish BAMM Trigger Line as SupportThis has been a Years Long trade and Sugar is nearly there at the 88.6% target, but I do think since we spent some time testing the B point as support that it has potential for pushing all the way to the 1.13 Extension to complete a Full ABCD, so I will be opening up another bullish position on the CANE ETF from here and targeting higher levels.
Soybeans poised for a drop?Soybeans have certainly caught our attention as a classic head and shoulders pattern has emerged, suggesting a possible trend reversal. This implies a potential drop equivalent to the height from the head to the neckline, taking us towards the 900 level. Could this be signalling more downside in the soybean market?
The current price action is intriguing as an attempt to break the neckline was rejected and prices now hover just below the neckline. Is this the prime moment to consider a short position on soybeans? We think it's worth exploring, and here's why...
As we’ve last pointed out in the “It’s Corn!” idea in March, prices of the 3 major agriculture crops, Soybean, Wheat and Corn generally move together. Back then, we were highlighting the excessive premium in Corn futures as well as the break of a technical chart pattern. Now, we're witnessing a similar tale with Soybean stepping into the spotlight.
From 2019 until now, these three crops have jockeyed for position in terms of percentage gain. Currently, Soybean is in the lead, when compared to Wheat and Corn, in terms of % gain from pre-COVID times and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Another way to look at it is to compare the ratio between Soybean & Corn as well as Wheat. The Soybean/Corn ratio is now at the higher end of its 7-year range, and while the Soybean/Wheat ratio not as extreme, is still closer to its range top.
Another interesting dynamic we can look into is the Natural Gas – Fertilizers – Soybean dynamic. As natural gas is a key input in fertilisers production, the spectacular fall in natural gas prices has preceded falling fertiliser prices. This in turn, impacts soybean prices as well.
Hence, we see a potential downside for Soybean as it trades at a premium as compared to Corn & Wheat. We can consider a short position on the Soybean Futures at the current level of 1340 with a stop at 1450 and take profits at 1250 followed by a subsequent take profit level at 900. This will allow profits on the anticipated downward move while also considering the head and shoulders pattern's target. CME’s Soybean Futures is quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Each 0.0025 increment equal to 12.5$.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
Corn Prices Fizzle on Bumper HarvestCorn prices have fallen 14% since the start of 2023. The latest USDA report points to further downside. Corn prices are expected to fizzle with expectations of a bumper harvest combined with tepid demand.
The USDA expects a record harvest of 15.27 billion bushels. The 2023/24 forecasts signal rising corn supply boosting ending stocks to their highest level since 2016/17.
To hedge against falling corn price, this case study proposes a short position using CME Corn Futures (ZCN2023) expiring in July with an entry of 586.25 and a target of 433.25, which is hedged by a stop loss at 654.25, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25x.
RECORD CORN HARVEST IS ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN SOARING ENDING STOCKS
WASDE, short for World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, is a monthly report released by the US Department of Agriculture (“USDA”) that tracks the supply and demand for various agricultural commodities.
In the latest WASDE report, released on May 12th, USDA expects a record 15.3 billion bushels of corn to be harvested in the US this year.
The US is the largest producer of corn, representing 32% of total global production. Global corn production is expected to rise 6% YoY in 2023-24.
While production is robust, demand and consumption are not expected to grow as fast. Global demand is expected to rise 3.7% with US consumption expected to climb 3.4%. This will result in an oversupply of corn with soaring inventory levels (i.e., Ending stocks).
Ending stocks represent the supply of corn that is carried over to the next year. They are expected to rise 56% YoY to 2.2 billion bushels, the highest level since 2016-17. This leaves plenty of supply to accommodate any demand expansion.
A bumper harvest in October is expected to cause an oversupply pushing corn prices lower.
Despite the recent decline in corn prices, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. With ending stocks now expected to reach pre-pandemic levels, prices will likely follow.
WEATHER MAY UPSET BUMPER HARVEST EXPECTATIONS
The WASDE estimate assumes stable weather conditions as well as demand assumptions regarding China.
Weather conditions play a huge role in final harvested yield. In the current year, drought conditions & intense heat in Argentina led to lower crop yields. With extreme weather events rising globally, it is possible that unfavorable weather may reduce the final US corn output.
China is the largest consumer of corn. With hopes of strong economic recovery still simmering, demand in China may spike higher than USDA expectations.
If supply fails or demand spikes, Corn prices may remain steady or even rise.
Asset Managers and Options Markets are positioning for Corn price to plunge
CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report shows that asset managers have more than doubled their net short positioning in Corn futures over the last twelve (12) weeks.
Other reportable traders have reduced their net long positioning by almost 50% in the same period. Both indicate rising bearishness about corn prices.
Similar sentiment is reflected in the options market. Although June and July contracts have Put/Call ratio of ~0.85 (more calls than puts), this is before the bumper harvest is expected (August-October). The September and December contracts which expire after the harvest have a Put/Call ratio of ~1.2.
The futures forward curve, which is in backwardation, also shows expectations for prices to drop following the harvest.
TRADE SETUP
Each lot of CME Corn Futures provides exposure to 5,000 bushels of corn. A short position in CME Corn Futures expiring in July (ZCN2023) with an entry of 586.25 and a target of 433.25, which is hedged by a stop loss at 654.25, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25x.
• Entry: 586.25 ¢/bushel
• Target: 433.25 ¢/bushel
• Stop: 654.25 ¢/bushel
• Profit at Target: USD 7,650
• Loss at Stop: USD 3,400
• Reward-to-risk: 2.25x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Bayer AG (BAYN.de) bullish scenario:The technical figure Falling Wedge can be found in the daily chart in the German company Bayer AG (BAYN.de). Bayer AG is a German multinational pharmaceutical and biotechnology company and one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. Headquartered in Leverkusen, Bayer's areas of business include pharmaceuticals; consumer healthcare products, agricultural chemicals, seeds and biotechnology products. The Falling Wedge broke through the resistance line on 22/03/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 9 days towards 60.750 EUR. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 54.890 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Bayer AG plans to spend $1 billion on drug research and development in the U.S. this year as it works to double its sales in the country by the end of the decade, Bayer's top U.S. pharmaceutical executive told Reuters.
Sebastian Guth, president of Bayer's pharmaceuticals business in the Americas, in an interview with Reuters, said the company increased U.S. employees working on marketing for its pharmaceutical business by around 50% over the last three years and plans to expand on that by another 75% by 2030.
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It’s Corn!You know the “It’s Corn” song trending on TikTok? It brings a smile to our face every time we hear it. But if you look at Corn’s price chart and fundamental outlook, that’s a whole other story…
Corn’s recent breakout of a symmetrical triangle towards the downside caught our attention. With the clear break and an ensuing retest, Corn is now trading right on previous support levels. We think this might just be a small reprieve in the downward direction it is headed.
Not only that, when you zoom out to a longer timeframe, Corn has just broken its long-term trend support established since 2020.
This combined with the symmetrical triangle break proves to provide a strong bearish case from here. Classical chart pattern analysis points the take-profit range from the triangle pattern, at roughly 292 points away. From the initial point of breakout, 292 points away takes us back to the 360 level which was the average price seen from 2014 to 2020, back to pre-covid and pre-Russian/Ukraine conflict levels.
Additionally, in a or few previous analyses we emphasized how many of the commodities have started to return to ‘normality’ with prices moving back to pre-war levels. We have already seen Wheat and Soybean retracing most of the War rally as prices tumbled, therefore it’s not hard to see Corn do the same soon.
Other supporting fundamental factors include the falling Ethanol prices and in turn, lower usage of corn for Ethanol, resulting in overall supply to increase.
Fertilizer prices have also fallen from all-time highs, with continued downward momentum. Lower fertilizer cost means better margins for the farmers and potentially higher usage of fertilizers in planting, which may result in better crop yield. Both factors work to lower corn price through more competitive pricing from the farmers and increased supply.
Combined, we think the fundamental and technical chart set-up provides a convincing case for Corn to fall lower. We set our stops above the triangle apex and at the previous level of resistance, 688, and our initial take-profit levels at 565 followed by 455, giving us a risk reward of roughly 1.46 and 3.66 from the current level of 637.6. Each 0.0025 point increment in CME Corn Futures is equal to 12.5 USD.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
DBA Coiling to Break Out ?DBA noted to be on the verge of a break out.
Very quickly, here is why:
1. Weekly Candlestick pattern appears more bullish . Subtle buy signal there.
2. MACD rising and just about crossing up and the VolDiv already crossed over.
3. TD Seq is actually still in Bullish trend
4. Daily Candlesticks show a potential rebound, but it needs to break above the TDST (green line)
5. The Daily background MACD histogram is actually bullish and rising
Still early IMHO
Looking for a pop above the line...