Agriculture
Is Bunge Breaking Out?The rise of inflation has investors quietly returning to many commodity-related stocks that were popular 2003-2007. One of them is Bunge.
Earlier this month, the soybean processor touched its highest level in over 13 years. It pulled back but is trying to stabilize around the same $92 area where it peaked last May. Is old resistance new support?
BG is also near its 50-day simple moving average.
Next, notice how the stock rallied after its last three earnings reports. (Each beat estimates on the top and bottom lines.)
Third, something of a rotation seems to be taking place because other similar names like Archer Daniels Midland, Mosaic , CF Industries and Deere are also above their 50-day moving averages. (Unlike the S&P 500.)
Overall, it’s been a tough start to the year for most major stocks. But certain corners of the market have held up better. Traders may start focusing on the emerging relative strength in agriculture-related names like BG.
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1/23/22 CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Agricultural)
Market Capitalization: 14.155B
Current Price: $66.00
Breakout price: $70.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $66.00-$61.50
Price Target: $78.90-$80.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 80-88d
Contract of Interest: $CF 5/20/22 70c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.95/contract
1/23/22 NTRNutrien Ltd. ( NYSE:NTR )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemical Agricultural)
Market Capitalization: 40.677B
Current Price: $70.82
Breakout price: $72.25
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $70.50-$67.25
Price Target: $79.25-$80.50
Estimated Duration to Target: 114-120d
Contract of Interest: $NTR 6/17/22 75c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.40/contract
An investment resistant to inflation, GNR ETFThe SPDR® S&P® Global Natural Resources ETF (GNR) seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P® Global Natural Resources Index. The index is composed of three sub indices, the S&P Global Natural Resources - Agriculture Index, the S&P Global Natural Resources -Energy Index and the S&P Global Natural Resources - Metals and Mining Index. Each index has a 1/3 weighting and provides excellent exposure to a number of the largest market cap securities in three natural resources sectors - agriculture, energy, and metals and mining.
During times of high inflation, which we are no doubt currently experiencing producers/miners/growers of natural resources are excellent businesses to invest in as they have the ability to easily match prices to inflation and push them downstream to consumers. In addition the procurement and sale of natural resources is a capital intensive business whether that be mining, farming, or drilling for oil. This makes it harder for competitors to steal market share from the large established companies that comprise the GNR ETF. This diversified global ETF is an easy and effective way to gain exposure to businesses that should be less affected by a high inflationary environment.
*Not a recommendation to buy or sell*
$CORN weekly Equities took a dive last week from the Covid related catalyst, meanwhile I'm bullish and still green on agriculture and CORN calls.
I'm long JAN 23 calls up +17% . I'm looking for a run to $26 in the coming months. Will trim along the way. Stop loss break even.
I'm also long DBA calls (agriculture fund).
$DBA Long Swing Trade Idea $DBA Agriculture fund looks bullish on weekly (macd cross) and monthly time frame.
Looking at the monthly chart we can see a break above $20.75 zone implies a move through the VP gap to $23.8 zone resistance.
MACD showing good momo and EMA's bullish cross implies continuation to the upside.
Open Interest is very heavy on the call side, and on 11/17 a whale bought 10,300 contacts of the 1/21 19c ... Given the technicals and chart I followed this trade idea.
Trade is working +14% so far and I think there's more room . Whale is still in the trade as well.
Soybeans minor support tradeQuick and dirty trade idea on soybeans. Nothing fancy by any stretch of the imagination.
Previous 11.85 support is being tested, maybe we can make a dollar or two based on a quick pivot to the upside. As a result, a very tight stop loss is in order, this trade has a very high reward / risk ratio. No time will be wasted, the market shall crash though support and we move on to other trades, or perhaps we can make a small profit.
AGRI AgriFORCE Growing Systems Price TargetAGRI was listed on July 7th, at a public offering price of $5.00 per unit. Now the price is only 3.04usd!!!
Shares Float is low, 12.05Mil
AGRI has signed a letter of intent to acquire a leading AgTech European consultancy.
AgTech consultancy had 2020 annual consulting audited revenues of over US$26 million and EBITDA of US$3 million .
it expects revenues of US$28 million for 2021.
purchase price of AgriFORCE is around US$29 million cash and stock.
AGRI has now a mk cap of onlu 45.5mil. with this purchase and AgTech`s added fundamentals, and using also the fibonacci extension tool, my place target for AGRI short term is 11.20usd
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about it.
MOS - long AgricultureIm long MOS since lower, it flashed a weekly trendsignal now, I would say invalidation for this Idea is below 30.41$, that would be a conservative stop,
as almost Im watching manually, but I think MOS can trend nicely over upcoming weeks, so I wanted to share.
Good profits to all of you.
Would you buy this?WNW 52 Week Range 4.2800 - 160.6800
Wunong Net Technology Company Limited, engages in the online retail of foods products in China.
The company offers green food, organic food, intangible cultural heritage food, agricultural products, and pollution-free products.
It also operates a restaurant under the Wunong Food Hall name and engages in the wholesale of agricultural products.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion on it.
Short-trend in CORNIt seems like a bearish flag pattern, which is building up in the Corn futures. So this could result in another short-term bearish impulse.
According to the seasonality charts we have at the end of Sep/Oct (depends on which charts you take into consideration) a seasonal low. According to the CME, it's not expected before Nov/Dec (New Crop months).
My personal long-term view on the agriculture commodities is of course very bullish - but we can go still one level lower over the next months ...
Farmmi Set to Capitalize on New Wellness TrendsStriving to vertically integrate its business, the company has been preparing for a major boost.
● Farmmi has a long record of unstable financial performance.
● The company's solid supply chain system and business model can integrate online and offline platforms and trigger potential future growth.
● Along with the public's increasing health awareness, Farmmi can seize more opportunities to build extensive global networks and explore new products, like fungi-based snacks.
● The share price of the company is currently hovering at low levels, which might provide investment opportunities in the middle term.
Farmmi (FAMI:NASDAQ) is a Chinese agriculture products provider that mainly processes and sells, as of July 2021, four different kinds of products: Shiitake mushrooms, wood ear (or Mu Er) mushrooms, other edible fungi and other packaged dried fungi. The company runs both an e-commerce platform and offline stores. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in a small city in east China, Farmmi is experienced in forming alliances with local family farms that allow the company to offer products to restaurants, cafeterias, local specialty stores, as well as through distributors.
Here, we analyze this small share opportunity and discuss the company's potential.
Quality – volatile profitability and cash flow generation
Farmmi's financials have lately been somewhat unstable. The revenue has been growing slowly – and even declined in 2020; operating income peaked in 2018 and has kept declining since. Farmmi's net income has also shown high volatility. Since 2015, the company has been reporting unstable and negative operating cash flows. Basically, it delivered unfavorable financials all the way after its IPO in February 2018.
What is more, the company's capital expenditure kept growing, but the limited value has been generated, resulting in a downward-moving return on capital.
Growth – optimistic trends and industry dividends
Despite Farmmi underperforming in the past years, investors should not be overly concerned about the lasting effects on the company's future development. We believe the company has a more positive side on financial growth and cash flow stability that will reflect in its future growth.
As mushrooms and fungi are categorized as 'wellness food,' Farmmi focuses on such products, exploring overseas markets. Now, 94% of the company's revenue is generated domestically, while 6% comes from international markets, including the United States, Japan, Canada and the Middle East. An insider has informed EqualOcean that Farmmi's top executives have recently been actively building networks and seeking major brand cooperation to further expand in the North American market this year. By May 2021, Farmmi had raised USD 7.4 million of post-IPO financing to fund its business expansion.
What is more, with the decreasing price of raw materials and improving cost control capabilities, Farmmi is expected to report better operating margins. So far, the figures have never fallen below the peer average level.
Unlike many traditional agriculture producers in the space, Farmmi has been utilizing trendy tools, like web-based products, to ensure its future competitiveness. The recently raised funds are leveraged by the company to enhance its e-commerce capabilities, IT and supply chain systems. These capital expenditures and the integration of online and offline business models may generate more income for the company.
The entire industry will release more dividends for Farmmi as well. The Chinese fungi market has been constantly growing since the noughties, providing growth momentum for Farmmi. The health and wellness trend has also expanded the market capacity for mushroom and fungi-based snacks, which Farmmi is building its future strategy around.
For most food companies, it is almost impossible to survive for over ten years without a solid supply chain system, technology support and cost and risk management abilities. Paying close attention to these aspects, Farmmi is poised to ride the global wellness trend with the increasing fungi consumption.
Price Momentum – upward
The stock of Farmmi seems to be currently undervalued. Without any warning signs in its financial performance, the share price has been going down since it went public in 2018, reached the lowest level ever.
As a small Chinese food brand, Farmmi might have less recognition among global investors, and we expect this situation to continue in the near future. However, the big picture appears brighter, as the company its making progress in cost control, harnessing technology and has a lot of room for development – both geographically and scope-wise.
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Invesco DB Agriculture fund - Breaking out of Descending channelThis break out of the descending channel looks legit and probably see's higher prices. Looks like a basic basket of agricultural goods is going to become even more expensive. Pattern target -> $20.50
Fund Holdings subject to change
FUTURES % OF NET ASSETS
Corn 14.29
Soybeans 13.73
Coffee 13.60
Sugar 13.25
Wheat 11.31
Live Cattle 9.78
Lean Hogs 9.64
Cocoa 8.48
Feeder Cattle 3.30
Cotton 2.63
COLLATERAL % OF NET ASSETS
Invesco Government & Agency Portfolio 45.95
United States Treasury Bill 42.57
Invesco Treasury Collateral ETF 10.19
Cash/Receivables/Payables 0.01
GROW Pennant BreakoutBreakout from pennant that has formed over the last two months. Ichimoku cross below cloud and MACD cross help confirm breakout. Resistance 0.33, price target 0.5, stop loss 0.275. Company has been gaining traction with more signed contracts, most recent sale today to a Canadian cannabis cultivator.
DBA riding the trend upThis ETF has been my favourite since 2020. With the scarcity in supply from agriculture segment and the incoming waves of inflation, this could be one good bet for agriculture sector. It's looking like a small cup and handle with the neckline at 19.19, it's looking pretty good if there's good volume to push for breakout. Let's see how the US Market goes for next week. DBA has been riding on a good uptrend since June last year and looks very likely to continue further.