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Agriculture

Farmmi Set to Capitalize on New Wellness TrendsStriving to vertically integrate its business, the company has been preparing for a major boost. ● Farmmi has a long record of unstable financial performance. ● The company's solid supply chain system and business model can integrate online and offline platforms and trigger potential future growth. ● Along with the public's increasing health awareness, Farmmi can seize more opportunities to build extensive global networks and explore new products, like fungi-based snacks. ● The share price of the company is currently hovering at low levels, which might provide investment opportunities in the middle term. Farmmi (FAMI:NASDAQ) is a Chinese agriculture products provider that mainly processes and sells, as of July 2021, four different kinds of products: Shiitake mushrooms, wood ear (or Mu Er) mushrooms, other edible fungi and other packaged dried fungi. The company runs both an e-commerce platform and offline stores. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in a small city in east China, Farmmi is experienced in forming alliances with local family farms that allow the company to offer products to restaurants, cafeterias, local specialty stores, as well as through distributors. Here, we analyze this small share opportunity and discuss the company's potential. Quality – volatile profitability and cash flow generation Farmmi's financials have lately been somewhat unstable. The revenue has been growing slowly – and even declined in 2020; operating income peaked in 2018 and has kept declining since. Farmmi's net income has also shown high volatility. Since 2015, the company has been reporting unstable and negative operating cash flows. Basically, it delivered unfavorable financials all the way after its IPO in February 2018. What is more, the company's capital expenditure kept growing, but the limited value has been generated, resulting in a downward-moving return on capital. Growth – optimistic trends and industry dividends Despite Farmmi underperforming in the past years, investors should not be overly concerned about the lasting effects on the company's future development. We believe the company has a more positive side on financial growth and cash flow stability that will reflect in its future growth. As mushrooms and fungi are categorized as 'wellness food,' Farmmi focuses on such products, exploring overseas markets. Now, 94% of the company's revenue is generated domestically, while 6% comes from international markets, including the United States, Japan, Canada and the Middle East. An insider has informed EqualOcean that Farmmi's top executives have recently been actively building networks and seeking major brand cooperation to further expand in the North American market this year. By May 2021, Farmmi had raised USD 7.4 million of post-IPO financing to fund its business expansion. What is more, with the decreasing price of raw materials and improving cost control capabilities, Farmmi is expected to report better operating margins. So far, the figures have never fallen below the peer average level. Unlike many traditional agriculture producers in the space, Farmmi has been utilizing trendy tools, like web-based products, to ensure its future competitiveness. The recently raised funds are leveraged by the company to enhance its e-commerce capabilities, IT and supply chain systems. These capital expenditures and the integration of online and offline business models may generate more income for the company. The entire industry will release more dividends for Farmmi as well. The Chinese fungi market has been constantly growing since the noughties, providing growth momentum for Farmmi. The health and wellness trend has also expanded the market capacity for mushroom and fungi-based snacks, which Farmmi is building its future strategy around. For most food companies, it is almost impossible to survive for over ten years without a solid supply chain system, technology support and cost and risk management abilities. Paying close attention to these aspects, Farmmi is poised to ride the global wellness trend with the increasing fungi consumption. Price Momentum – upward The stock of Farmmi seems to be currently undervalued. Without any warning signs in its financial performance, the share price has been going down since it went public in 2018, reached the lowest level ever. As a small Chinese food brand, Farmmi might have less recognition among global investors, and we expect this situation to continue in the near future. However, the big picture appears brighter, as the company its making progress in cost control, harnessing technology and has a lot of room for development – both geographically and scope-wise. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NASDAQ:FAMI
by EqualOcean
Invesco DB Agriculture fund - Breaking out of Descending channelThis break out of the descending channel looks legit and probably see's higher prices. Looks like a basic basket of agricultural goods is going to become even more expensive. Pattern target -> $20.50 Fund Holdings subject to change FUTURES % OF NET ASSETS Corn 14.29 Soybeans 13.73 Coffee 13.60 Sugar 13.25 Wheat 11.31 Live Cattle 9.78 Lean Hogs 9.64 Cocoa 8.48 Feeder Cattle 3.30 Cotton 2.63 COLLATERAL % OF NET ASSETS Invesco Government & Agency Portfolio 45.95 United States Treasury Bill 42.57 Invesco Treasury Collateral ETF 10.19 Cash/Receivables/Payables 0.01
AMEX:DBALong
by MarcoOlevano
DBA riding the trend upThis ETF has been my favourite since 2020. With the scarcity in supply from agriculture segment and the incoming waves of inflation, this could be one good bet for agriculture sector. It's looking like a small cup and handle with the neckline at 19.19, it's looking pretty good if there's good volume to push for breakout. Let's see how the US Market goes for next week. DBA has been riding on a good uptrend since June last year and looks very likely to continue further.
AMEX:DBALong
by I0NMAN
The Inflation has LandedThe media has recognized and confirmed what we have been warning about for some time, that inflation was on the way. Well it is finally here. ‘The accommodative/bailout policies of Greenspan and his protégé Bernanke as figureheads of federal intervention and involvement into financial and monetary affairs and their ability to arbitrarily yield federal power have done nothing more than turn market participants into Pavlov’s dogs. The money they have materialized and forced fed into the global financial system without any commensurate increase in production in their economies is money in search of mischief and is very likely to find it…in the form of very serious inflation.’ theimpartiallens.com March 2015 & 2020 ‘The powers that be have had to intervene in every crisis we’ve had since the 1980s. and since The Great Financial Crisis of 2007, we now realize that we can never ever stop printing money. It is inflate or die’. theimpartiallens.com February 2021 Cost-Push Inflation The only people who can’t see the inflation are the authorities who are printing the money. They use the corrupt and decades old revision of the CPI. Meanwhile inflation is rampant in the real world. We mentioned in the following piece theimpartiallens.com that inflation manifests itself in different ways. It can go into stocks, bonds, foreign countries, oil, crypto, your health costs, your housing costs, educational costs, etc. The powers that be can live in denial and it’s not a river in Egypt. But the inflation we warned about that is now taking shape, the one they fear, the one that will bring about the revolutions, is cost-push inflation, especially food price inflation. They will try to disguise it for a while longer with shrinkflation, but when the masses realize that they are spending the same, but their kids are still hungry…watch out! One of our favorite investment themes ie. 'Real Assets' has finally caught a bid since the summer of 2020 as we can see from the performance of the following ETF’s: Agriculture (DBA) +45% Commodities (DBC) +72%< Base Metals (DBB) +69% Agri-Business (MOO) 75% Uranium (URA) 112% WTI Crude Oil (DBO) 111% Water (FIW) 64% Palladium (PALL) 61% Brent Crude Oil (BNO) 117% Rare Earths (REMX) +172% Copper Miners (COPX) 300% Lithium (LIT) 148% Cannabis (YOLO) 150% Time to Rebalance Portfolios? No harm in taking SOME crypto gains and buying some real stuff! Gold, Silver & the mining companies look interesting here. We went long the following six ETF’s in March/April 2020 in anticipation of upcoming inflation: GDX (Gold & Silver Miners), GDXJ (Junior Gold & Silver Miners), WPM (Gold, Silver, Palladium, Cobalt), WTR (Water), GLD (Gold), COW (LIvestock). ‘Nobody ever lost money taking a profit.’ Bernard Baruch “Art is making something out of nothing, and selling it.” ― Frank Zappa theimpartiallens.com
TVC:GOLDLong
by rzinho
COMMODITIES - DANModel has given entry signals for Arianne Phosphate Inc. - Arianne Phosphate Inc. engages in the acquisition and exploration of mining properties in Canada. It primarily focuses on developing Lac à Paul phosphate rock project located in the Saguenay-Lac St-Jean area, Quebec. - Phosphorous is one of the key essential elements in modern agriculture. - We are very excited about opportunities in the commodities sector, as we believe a macro turn is approaching in the nearest future. - Technically in a cup and handle, possible breakout. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
TSXV:DANLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
Inflation trade: Bulls leading battle of attrition on bearsThis is the type of inflation that the masses ignore, that happens while they cheer at Chavez stimulus checks. Look at images of Venezuela 15 years ago, so many smiles, so happy crowds. While Germans were carrying buckets of cash and starving actually farmers were doing pretty well, they profited greatly. Probably for similar reasons the clueless revolutionaries in Russia called them "bloodsuckers". How outrageous they profit while others suffer oh no! All is their fault, not the people actually responsible. But what the cheering average people worrying about their day to day lives don't see is the worst type of inflation: basic goods prices go up, production goes down. Hurray, everyone gets more "money", everyone gets more pointless pieces of paper, great, I will finally be able to afford, checks notes, nothing at all. There is LESS STUFF for everyone. These people, especially the urban ones, they live in fantasy land, I've seen some of those cretins say supply and demand is a myth. WAT? That's so dumb, boy are they about to learn their lesson. It is an endless circle. Prices go up, prod goes down, there is less stuff, people push prices up, prices go up, prod goes down, and so on. Maybe reptilian brained people panic fight each other for toilet paper and pasta again? Rubs hands. Few eat soybeans, only california millenials from what I hear, what it is used for is feeding domestic animals, not the friend kind, the food kind, soybean gets turned into milk, steaks, pork chops, bacon and beef jerky and all those industrial products made from meat that americans eat like candy. Americans have a ghrelin disease, they get ravenously hungry they'd kill to eat buckets of food. Also the situation in Argentina not getting better, farmers waging war to the socialists. The weather is really dry in Argentina, these big bags of beans could catch fire very easily, damn it would be a shame if they started to burn (again). The freezing cold weather did not help, other producers are rekt because of cold & wet. Who else is heavilly impacting this? The big buyers in the far east have stocks but they'll have to buy eventually hehe. In this inflation env, any negative event will push the price up anyway, and "positive" event will just make it pullback or sideways a bit, maybe only slow it down. I think the price will chop chop a bit on its way up, chop chop not as hurry up I mean go back and forth :p, then bears will break and it will slide vertically. To ~17$, which is a very special price you know.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by MrRenev
4
Coffee, Global Agriculture Inflation BoomNotice the major multi-year higher low formed in 2019, followed by the rounding basing pattern and subsequent breakout outside of the multi-year triangle. The higher low in 2019, before the Covid deflation crash, tells me the agriculture complex was already bottoming ahead of Covid and now has a full head of steam. Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, Fertilizer have all been ripping to the upside like mad. Way to play coffee is through the ETF NIB Not investment advice. DYODD
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Are You Positioned for Quad 2? I hope you're readyWe're already in the midst of record runs in the equity and commodity markets but as bubbly as it seems, its not over. We are in an environment that not many people are familiar with. The last time Growth and Inflation on a global scale were accelerating as fast as they are now was immediately after World War 2. Previous commodity cycles were sparked by 1 or 2 catalysts. The current macro setup has nearly the most accommodative and bullish catalysts for global growth and inflation that we could imagine. Fed on autopilot, Fiscal out the wazoo, supply chain disruptions and shortages everywhere, all major political interests want a weaker dollar. Given that is the case and YoY GDP will probably show about +10% and CPI +3% in the 2nd Quarter, there's a good chance this current run, especially for commodities, could continue for a couple more months before a major correction. Things I have been and remain bullish on: Potash, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Copper, Uranium, Crude Oil, Natural Gas. I've added to my exposure recently Aluminum, Nickel, and Coal.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
GROW.V Breakout New 52 Week HighsIncreasing volume and price action past few weeks. Ascending triangle breakout confirmed today with rise above weekly ichimoku cloud. Low float micro cap stock. Disruptive agriculture tech increasing plant growth, new signed contracts and sales behind the run up. Previously ran to 0.70 in April 2019 with a lot less company traction and progress. Price target 0.30-0.35 from ascending triangle break, stop loss 0.20 at previous resistance. I am long GROW, recently doubled my shares at 0.15.
TSXV:GROWLong
by Unlikely-Bite
New Agriculture Commodity Bull Market The Entire Agriculture Complex is in the process of breaking out, and not just breaking out, but breaking out of a 12-year old downtrend. I will be posting more charts showing the developing bull market in ag and other commodities, and how I'm expressing that outlook in the portfolio. In terms of the macro inflation cycle, I think we are somewhere similar to early 2002. I.E. We're fresh out of a cycle low for inflation and commodities which means the new bull market has already started, but it can only be seen in momentum, volume for particular commodities (copper & wheat), and smart money moving into commodities the past few months. By the time price is showing a technical breakout smart money will be selling into volume from moving average breakout chasers. That being said, this commodity bull market can last a long time but it won't come without its volatility. it will be important not to chase extreme moves, but rather be patient and wait to buy on pullbacks. Experience has taught us to wait for weakness to buy and to sell into strength. If you're not convinced Agriculture is breaking out, look at $IPI Intrepid Potash $Corn $Sugar. With the assumption that inflation is in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the inflation cycle, stocks like $ICL still have a lot higher to go even though its moved a lot off of its cycle low. Notice that the cycle low was right at the opening original price 14 years ago. The long-term structure of $ICL's price trends shows a well-managed and healthy company that does well in commodity inflation cycles and shareholders haven't been diluted to death in a long-term bear market. Additionally, $ICL is a similar company to $IPI intrepid potash, but it is better managed and more diversified and internationally-oriented which gives it less market risk and an advantage in terms of globalism-accelerating and Israel having a security and investment advantage on the global market. This being said, $ICL still has 500% upside over a trend-duration to get to a new all-time high, while $IPI potentially has much more than that (1000%+) should it ever overcome the long-term bear market and equity dilution. Not an equity analyst or licensed professional. Do your own DD.
NYSE:ICLLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises