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Agriculture

The Inflation has LandedThe media has recognized and confirmed what we have been warning about for some time, that inflation was on the way. Well it is finally here. ‘The accommodative/bailout policies of Greenspan and his protégé Bernanke as figureheads of federal intervention and involvement into financial and monetary affairs and their ability to arbitrarily yield federal power have done nothing more than turn market participants into Pavlov’s dogs. The money they have materialized and forced fed into the global financial system without any commensurate increase in production in their economies is money in search of mischief and is very likely to find it…in the form of very serious inflation.’ theimpartiallens.com March 2015 & 2020 ‘The powers that be have had to intervene in every crisis we’ve had since the 1980s. and since The Great Financial Crisis of 2007, we now realize that we can never ever stop printing money. It is inflate or die’. theimpartiallens.com February 2021 Cost-Push Inflation The only people who can’t see the inflation are the authorities who are printing the money. They use the corrupt and decades old revision of the CPI. Meanwhile inflation is rampant in the real world. We mentioned in the following piece theimpartiallens.com that inflation manifests itself in different ways. It can go into stocks, bonds, foreign countries, oil, crypto, your health costs, your housing costs, educational costs, etc. The powers that be can live in denial and it’s not a river in Egypt. But the inflation we warned about that is now taking shape, the one they fear, the one that will bring about the revolutions, is cost-push inflation, especially food price inflation. They will try to disguise it for a while longer with shrinkflation, but when the masses realize that they are spending the same, but their kids are still hungry…watch out! One of our favorite investment themes ie. 'Real Assets' has finally caught a bid since the summer of 2020 as we can see from the performance of the following ETF’s: Agriculture (DBA) +45% Commodities (DBC) +72%< Base Metals (DBB) +69% Agri-Business (MOO) 75% Uranium (URA) 112% WTI Crude Oil (DBO) 111% Water (FIW) 64% Palladium (PALL) 61% Brent Crude Oil (BNO) 117% Rare Earths (REMX) +172% Copper Miners (COPX) 300% Lithium (LIT) 148% Cannabis (YOLO) 150% Time to Rebalance Portfolios? No harm in taking SOME crypto gains and buying some real stuff! Gold, Silver & the mining companies look interesting here. We went long the following six ETF’s in March/April 2020 in anticipation of upcoming inflation: GDX (Gold & Silver Miners), GDXJ (Junior Gold & Silver Miners), WPM (Gold, Silver, Palladium, Cobalt), WTR (Water), GLD (Gold), COW (LIvestock). ‘Nobody ever lost money taking a profit.’ Bernard Baruch “Art is making something out of nothing, and selling it.” ― Frank Zappa theimpartiallens.com
TVC:GOLDLong
by rzinho
COMMODITIES - DANModel has given entry signals for Arianne Phosphate Inc. - Arianne Phosphate Inc. engages in the acquisition and exploration of mining properties in Canada. It primarily focuses on developing Lac à Paul phosphate rock project located in the Saguenay-Lac St-Jean area, Quebec. - Phosphorous is one of the key essential elements in modern agriculture. - We are very excited about opportunities in the commodities sector, as we believe a macro turn is approaching in the nearest future. - Technically in a cup and handle, possible breakout. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
TSXV:DANLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
Inflation trade: Bulls leading battle of attrition on bearsThis is the type of inflation that the masses ignore, that happens while they cheer at Chavez stimulus checks. Look at images of Venezuela 15 years ago, so many smiles, so happy crowds. While Germans were carrying buckets of cash and starving actually farmers were doing pretty well, they profited greatly. Probably for similar reasons the clueless revolutionaries in Russia called them "bloodsuckers". How outrageous they profit while others suffer oh no! All is their fault, not the people actually responsible. But what the cheering average people worrying about their day to day lives don't see is the worst type of inflation: basic goods prices go up, production goes down. Hurray, everyone gets more "money", everyone gets more pointless pieces of paper, great, I will finally be able to afford, checks notes, nothing at all. There is LESS STUFF for everyone. These people, especially the urban ones, they live in fantasy land, I've seen some of those cretins say supply and demand is a myth. WAT? That's so dumb, boy are they about to learn their lesson. It is an endless circle. Prices go up, prod goes down, there is less stuff, people push prices up, prices go up, prod goes down, and so on. Maybe reptilian brained people panic fight each other for toilet paper and pasta again? Rubs hands. Few eat soybeans, only california millenials from what I hear, what it is used for is feeding domestic animals, not the friend kind, the food kind, soybean gets turned into milk, steaks, pork chops, bacon and beef jerky and all those industrial products made from meat that americans eat like candy. Americans have a ghrelin disease, they get ravenously hungry they'd kill to eat buckets of food. Also the situation in Argentina not getting better, farmers waging war to the socialists. The weather is really dry in Argentina, these big bags of beans could catch fire very easily, damn it would be a shame if they started to burn (again). The freezing cold weather did not help, other producers are rekt because of cold & wet. Who else is heavilly impacting this? The big buyers in the far east have stocks but they'll have to buy eventually hehe. In this inflation env, any negative event will push the price up anyway, and "positive" event will just make it pullback or sideways a bit, maybe only slow it down. I think the price will chop chop a bit on its way up, chop chop not as hurry up I mean go back and forth :p, then bears will break and it will slide vertically. To ~17$, which is a very special price you know.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by MrRenev
4
Coffee, Global Agriculture Inflation BoomNotice the major multi-year higher low formed in 2019, followed by the rounding basing pattern and subsequent breakout outside of the multi-year triangle. The higher low in 2019, before the Covid deflation crash, tells me the agriculture complex was already bottoming ahead of Covid and now has a full head of steam. Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, Fertilizer have all been ripping to the upside like mad. Way to play coffee is through the ETF NIB Not investment advice. DYODD
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Are You Positioned for Quad 2? I hope you're readyWe're already in the midst of record runs in the equity and commodity markets but as bubbly as it seems, its not over. We are in an environment that not many people are familiar with. The last time Growth and Inflation on a global scale were accelerating as fast as they are now was immediately after World War 2. Previous commodity cycles were sparked by 1 or 2 catalysts. The current macro setup has nearly the most accommodative and bullish catalysts for global growth and inflation that we could imagine. Fed on autopilot, Fiscal out the wazoo, supply chain disruptions and shortages everywhere, all major political interests want a weaker dollar. Given that is the case and YoY GDP will probably show about +10% and CPI +3% in the 2nd Quarter, there's a good chance this current run, especially for commodities, could continue for a couple more months before a major correction. Things I have been and remain bullish on: Potash, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Copper, Uranium, Crude Oil, Natural Gas. I've added to my exposure recently Aluminum, Nickel, and Coal.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
GROW.V Breakout New 52 Week HighsIncreasing volume and price action past few weeks. Ascending triangle breakout confirmed today with rise above weekly ichimoku cloud. Low float micro cap stock. Disruptive agriculture tech increasing plant growth, new signed contracts and sales behind the run up. Previously ran to 0.70 in April 2019 with a lot less company traction and progress. Price target 0.30-0.35 from ascending triangle break, stop loss 0.20 at previous resistance. I am long GROW, recently doubled my shares at 0.15.
TSXV:GROWLong
by Unlikely-Bite
New Agriculture Commodity Bull Market The Entire Agriculture Complex is in the process of breaking out, and not just breaking out, but breaking out of a 12-year old downtrend. I will be posting more charts showing the developing bull market in ag and other commodities, and how I'm expressing that outlook in the portfolio. In terms of the macro inflation cycle, I think we are somewhere similar to early 2002. I.E. We're fresh out of a cycle low for inflation and commodities which means the new bull market has already started, but it can only be seen in momentum, volume for particular commodities (copper & wheat), and smart money moving into commodities the past few months. By the time price is showing a technical breakout smart money will be selling into volume from moving average breakout chasers. That being said, this commodity bull market can last a long time but it won't come without its volatility. it will be important not to chase extreme moves, but rather be patient and wait to buy on pullbacks. Experience has taught us to wait for weakness to buy and to sell into strength. If you're not convinced Agriculture is breaking out, look at $IPI Intrepid Potash $Corn $Sugar. With the assumption that inflation is in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the inflation cycle, stocks like $ICL still have a lot higher to go even though its moved a lot off of its cycle low. Notice that the cycle low was right at the opening original price 14 years ago. The long-term structure of $ICL's price trends shows a well-managed and healthy company that does well in commodity inflation cycles and shareholders haven't been diluted to death in a long-term bear market. Additionally, $ICL is a similar company to $IPI intrepid potash, but it is better managed and more diversified and internationally-oriented which gives it less market risk and an advantage in terms of globalism-accelerating and Israel having a security and investment advantage on the global market. This being said, $ICL still has 500% upside over a trend-duration to get to a new all-time high, while $IPI potentially has much more than that (1000%+) should it ever overcome the long-term bear market and equity dilution. Not an equity analyst or licensed professional. Do your own DD.
NYSE:ICLLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Agricultural Commodities Ripping! Food Prices to Rise in 2021!Ending my posts of major themes to look for in 2021, I want to end with the agricultural commodities. Particularly Corn, Wheat and Soybeans. The agricultural commodities are some of my favorite assets to trade, and I do not think many people pay too much attention to them. I focus on the three mentioned above, but you can also trade sugar, coffee, cocoa, orange juice (yes seriously), cattle, hogs, and pork bellies to name a few more. Let me give you a quick run down on the ag commodities. Corn is the most traded agricultural commodity, and is an important food source for both humans and animals. What makes Corn important is that it can be grown in a variety of climates and conditions, unlike the other agricultural commodities. Other uses include starches, corn oil and fuel ethanol. According to my handy dandy commodity handbook, approximately 35 million hectares are used exclusively for corn production world wide. Just as Oil has different qualities (Brent, West Texas, Canadian West etc), Corn does as well. There are different grades but the most important are high grade number 2 corn and number 3 yellow corn. The futures ticker for corn contracts is ZC. The top 5 producers of Corn in the world are: The United States, China, Brazil, Mexico and India (Canada makes it in 9th place). Corn has had an amazing run since June. We will get to the why when at the end of this post, but pay attention to the commodity charts. These are all going to be LONG term weekly charts. You can see that Corn is breaking out, and in fact, will confirm a breakout with this weeks close, which occurs today. Lot of room higher to go in 2021. The breakout zone will be our support, and as long as we remain above, Corn moves higher. Wheat is the second most produced agricultural commodity. Rice comes in at third for those that are interested. No country necessarily dominates wheat production a la Saudi Arabia with Oil and Kazakhstan with Uranium. China, India, Russia, the United States, and France produce the most wheat in the millions of tons. Canada, Australia, Germany, Pakistan, and Ukraine also boast significant production. The future contract ticker for Wheat is ZW. Wheat on the weekly is setting up to breakout. Just like Corn, we would confirm a breakout on the weekly chart by the end of today. Finally, Soybeans. Perhaps the more ‘mainstream’ financial media agricultural commodity that has seen plenty of coverage due to the US-China trade deal. Part of the phase 1 deal was for China to increase their purchases of US Soybeans. I am focusing on the the whole soybean, but most soybeans are used for soybean oil and soybean meal. The United States dominates the Soybean market, composing 50% of the total global production. Brazil comes in second at around 20%. Many analysts predicted Brazil to be the big winner in a US-China trade war spat, as China could look to Brazil for more Soybean exports. The futures contract for Soybeans is ZS. Let’s take a look at the other traded forms of soybeans which have their own futures ticker. Soybean Oil is a vegetable oil and is one of the most used culinary oil in the world. Soybean Oil is also popular as a biodiesel. Believe it or not, but there are cars that have engines which can convert from regular diesel to Soybean Oil during production. They are known as ‘frybrids’. The futures ticker for Soybean Oil is ZL. Soybean Meal is a quick one. Whatever is left from the extraction of Soybeans into Soybean Oil can be converted into Soybean Meal. This is used for high-protein, high-energy food for feedstock for cattle, hogs, and poultry. The futures contract for Soybean Meal is ZM. Soybeans have been ripping in 2020. Again, China demand and the US-China Trade war headlines play a large part, but there was some other factors which we will discuss soon. Just like Corn and Wheat, Soybeans is set to confirm yet another breakout with a weekly candle close today. The agricultural commodities do not get the attention they deserve, and as you can see, they have made huge moves. For traders, they present a great trade opportunity due to the volatility, but also add on some more risk. Consider at least watching them if you do not want to trade them. M readers know I am extremely bullish on the agricultural commodities and agriculture in general. Jim Rogers is the one who got me excited about this sector. His argument is that most young people do not want to become farmers anymore, and that the average age of farmers is well above 60. Governments may need to create larger incentives to get young people to take up farming. I see some issues and challenges for agriculture, but will be rectified by human ingenuity. The first issue is soil. A lot of soil sucks due to the pesticides and other chemicals we use. If the soil is not great, the crop will not have the full dose of nutrients and could lead to health issues down the road. As many of you are aware, the organic food movement is a huge trend, and will grow year by year. Soil replenishment will be big. I have head some things in the past about zinc being used to replenish soil, particularly in California. Phosphorus and Potash also come in mind. In fact, some foresee a phosphorus faming crisis. A big issue for farming has been climate change. Obviously farming is cyclical. Winter has been lingering longer, especially on the East Coast. Farmers tend to await for certain birds to return to let them know Spring is here and it is time to plant crops. But Spring has been coming later while Winter lingers longer. Climate change will continue to disrupt agriculture and this could lead to a shortage of crops. In fact, this is the primary reason for the spike in Corn and Soybeans this year. Iowa is where the majority of these crops are grown in the US. Millions of acres were destroyed due to the storm in Iowa in August. This has led to spikes in agricultural commodities, and some say, points to a food crisis in 2021. Finally, something not many people consider are the ramifications of green energy. This info I learned from Peter Zeihan’s book, “Disunited Nations“. Highly recommended for anyone with an interest in geopolitics and where the world is going in the future. Green energy is coming. We all know it. Governments will be spending a lot for green infrastructure. Due to the fiscal policy required to combat covid, taxes need to go up. The best way is through green taxes because they know the people will not complain. Government will say these taxes are going to be used for green infrastructure which will aid in an economic recovery and creating jobs. The issue, as Mr. Zeihan states, is that solar panels and wind turbines need to be put in areas that are very sunny and/or windy. These areas tend to be where the best agricultural land is situated. So nations would have to sacrifice agriculture for energy. In his book, Zeihan states that there only a few nations which can come out as winners in this predicament. China is not one of them. Do not panic, a lot of these issues can be remedied. In house and Greenhouse farming can be a way to cope with the effects of climate change and unpredictable weather patterns. Vertical integrated farming can be a solution to allow for green energy infrastructure to be built in the best agriculture lands, and can also be a solution for nations that do not have much agricultural lands. So yes there will be issues, but human ingenuity will get us through it. The question is how long will it take? I want to end of with Covid. It seems we are setting up for a food crisis next year. Tons of articles about supply chain disruptions due to covid and worsening food insecurity for many nations. If this winter turns out to be a dark winter due to covid cases, the likelihood of empty shelves increases. A lot of this could also have an impact on the prices of agricultural commodities. Canada is already preparing for this. In Canada’s Food Price Report 2021, bread, meat and vegetable prices are set to rise between 3-5% in 2021. The average Canadian family will pay up to $700 more for food in 2021. The agricultural charts are pointing to higher food prices. Covid and Climate will have impacts, and hence why I am bullish on this sector going forward.
OANDA:CORNUSDLong
by Uncharted-FX
Inverse H&S on the Verde Agritech weekly chart targets $1.00The weekly chart of Verde Agritech is showing an inverse head and shoulders pattern that appears to have completed. A breakout from the current level (~$0.57) will confirm the pattern. The distance from the head to the neckline is $0.43, so the target of this chart pattern is $1.00. Fundamentals are supportive in that the company is establishing itself as a domestic supplier of potash to the Brazilian agricultural market and is steadily growing production and revenues. The product has been shown to be highly effective for coffee, soybeans and other crops while also being less damaging to the soil.
ALong
by carbon8ed
Obese EU NA MEX populations will fight like for toilet paperHey I'm looking more into those commodities that I understand and had success with rather than popular stocks where I ALWAYS lose (and I do not see what the purpose of short term speculators even is with stocks), or crypto that never does anything because it is dead. Sugar this year has been doing a daily volume of usually around 2 billion usd if the ICE data is correct. Looking just at the front month it would be about 1. With all the price controls and governments throwing subsidies at sugar farmers the futures market is only a shadow of its past glory, but the laws of supply & demand did not disappear and it still has a purpose. At least letting governments know how much purchasing power they will have to steal from their populations to throw at wealthy farmers. The ICE is the place to find info about sugar 11 www.theice.com The CME tries to compete, and their site is much better than that thing above ^ They are a good place to look at. www.cmegroup.com Here you can find a map differentiating beet & cane producer. It is reather easy: old world christians, muslims, japanese produce beet, rest of the world south of those places makes cane sugar. www.czarnikow.com Climate change is surreal humour in a bubble and check weather data for yourself. www.holiday-weather.com www.timeanddate.com en.tutiempo.net Brazil no rain no rain no rain no rain India storm storm storm storm This summer was so cold, did not hear the media, except in august when it was hot for part of it. Some FUD "Production will go up" "Production dropped" kek, media. www.financialexpress.com www.business-standard.com The addicts will get their fix no matter what it takes no matter the price. Stronger than cocaine. Also there is something with this time of year and the way the contract works. It's sort of like Oil 😉
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by MrRenev