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Agriculture

New Agriculture Commodity Bull Market The Entire Agriculture Complex is in the process of breaking out, and not just breaking out, but breaking out of a 12-year old downtrend. I will be posting more charts showing the developing bull market in ag and other commodities, and how I'm expressing that outlook in the portfolio. In terms of the macro inflation cycle, I think we are somewhere similar to early 2002. I.E. We're fresh out of a cycle low for inflation and commodities which means the new bull market has already started, but it can only be seen in momentum, volume for particular commodities (copper & wheat), and smart money moving into commodities the past few months. By the time price is showing a technical breakout smart money will be selling into volume from moving average breakout chasers. That being said, this commodity bull market can last a long time but it won't come without its volatility. it will be important not to chase extreme moves, but rather be patient and wait to buy on pullbacks. Experience has taught us to wait for weakness to buy and to sell into strength. If you're not convinced Agriculture is breaking out, look at $IPI Intrepid Potash $Corn $Sugar. With the assumption that inflation is in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the inflation cycle, stocks like $ICL still have a lot higher to go even though its moved a lot off of its cycle low. Notice that the cycle low was right at the opening original price 14 years ago. The long-term structure of $ICL's price trends shows a well-managed and healthy company that does well in commodity inflation cycles and shareholders haven't been diluted to death in a long-term bear market. Additionally, $ICL is a similar company to $IPI intrepid potash, but it is better managed and more diversified and internationally-oriented which gives it less market risk and an advantage in terms of globalism-accelerating and Israel having a security and investment advantage on the global market. This being said, $ICL still has 500% upside over a trend-duration to get to a new all-time high, while $IPI potentially has much more than that (1000%+) should it ever overcome the long-term bear market and equity dilution. Not an equity analyst or licensed professional. Do your own DD.
NYSE:ICLLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Agricultural Commodities Ripping! Food Prices to Rise in 2021!Ending my posts of major themes to look for in 2021, I want to end with the agricultural commodities. Particularly Corn, Wheat and Soybeans. The agricultural commodities are some of my favorite assets to trade, and I do not think many people pay too much attention to them. I focus on the three mentioned above, but you can also trade sugar, coffee, cocoa, orange juice (yes seriously), cattle, hogs, and pork bellies to name a few more. Let me give you a quick run down on the ag commodities. Corn is the most traded agricultural commodity, and is an important food source for both humans and animals. What makes Corn important is that it can be grown in a variety of climates and conditions, unlike the other agricultural commodities. Other uses include starches, corn oil and fuel ethanol. According to my handy dandy commodity handbook, approximately 35 million hectares are used exclusively for corn production world wide. Just as Oil has different qualities (Brent, West Texas, Canadian West etc), Corn does as well. There are different grades but the most important are high grade number 2 corn and number 3 yellow corn. The futures ticker for corn contracts is ZC. The top 5 producers of Corn in the world are: The United States, China, Brazil, Mexico and India (Canada makes it in 9th place). Corn has had an amazing run since June. We will get to the why when at the end of this post, but pay attention to the commodity charts. These are all going to be LONG term weekly charts. You can see that Corn is breaking out, and in fact, will confirm a breakout with this weeks close, which occurs today. Lot of room higher to go in 2021. The breakout zone will be our support, and as long as we remain above, Corn moves higher. Wheat is the second most produced agricultural commodity. Rice comes in at third for those that are interested. No country necessarily dominates wheat production a la Saudi Arabia with Oil and Kazakhstan with Uranium. China, India, Russia, the United States, and France produce the most wheat in the millions of tons. Canada, Australia, Germany, Pakistan, and Ukraine also boast significant production. The future contract ticker for Wheat is ZW. Wheat on the weekly is setting up to breakout. Just like Corn, we would confirm a breakout on the weekly chart by the end of today. Finally, Soybeans. Perhaps the more ‘mainstream’ financial media agricultural commodity that has seen plenty of coverage due to the US-China trade deal. Part of the phase 1 deal was for China to increase their purchases of US Soybeans. I am focusing on the the whole soybean, but most soybeans are used for soybean oil and soybean meal. The United States dominates the Soybean market, composing 50% of the total global production. Brazil comes in second at around 20%. Many analysts predicted Brazil to be the big winner in a US-China trade war spat, as China could look to Brazil for more Soybean exports. The futures contract for Soybeans is ZS. Let’s take a look at the other traded forms of soybeans which have their own futures ticker. Soybean Oil is a vegetable oil and is one of the most used culinary oil in the world. Soybean Oil is also popular as a biodiesel. Believe it or not, but there are cars that have engines which can convert from regular diesel to Soybean Oil during production. They are known as ‘frybrids’. The futures ticker for Soybean Oil is ZL. Soybean Meal is a quick one. Whatever is left from the extraction of Soybeans into Soybean Oil can be converted into Soybean Meal. This is used for high-protein, high-energy food for feedstock for cattle, hogs, and poultry. The futures contract for Soybean Meal is ZM. Soybeans have been ripping in 2020. Again, China demand and the US-China Trade war headlines play a large part, but there was some other factors which we will discuss soon. Just like Corn and Wheat, Soybeans is set to confirm yet another breakout with a weekly candle close today. The agricultural commodities do not get the attention they deserve, and as you can see, they have made huge moves. For traders, they present a great trade opportunity due to the volatility, but also add on some more risk. Consider at least watching them if you do not want to trade them. M readers know I am extremely bullish on the agricultural commodities and agriculture in general. Jim Rogers is the one who got me excited about this sector. His argument is that most young people do not want to become farmers anymore, and that the average age of farmers is well above 60. Governments may need to create larger incentives to get young people to take up farming. I see some issues and challenges for agriculture, but will be rectified by human ingenuity. The first issue is soil. A lot of soil sucks due to the pesticides and other chemicals we use. If the soil is not great, the crop will not have the full dose of nutrients and could lead to health issues down the road. As many of you are aware, the organic food movement is a huge trend, and will grow year by year. Soil replenishment will be big. I have head some things in the past about zinc being used to replenish soil, particularly in California. Phosphorus and Potash also come in mind. In fact, some foresee a phosphorus faming crisis. A big issue for farming has been climate change. Obviously farming is cyclical. Winter has been lingering longer, especially on the East Coast. Farmers tend to await for certain birds to return to let them know Spring is here and it is time to plant crops. But Spring has been coming later while Winter lingers longer. Climate change will continue to disrupt agriculture and this could lead to a shortage of crops. In fact, this is the primary reason for the spike in Corn and Soybeans this year. Iowa is where the majority of these crops are grown in the US. Millions of acres were destroyed due to the storm in Iowa in August. This has led to spikes in agricultural commodities, and some say, points to a food crisis in 2021. Finally, something not many people consider are the ramifications of green energy. This info I learned from Peter Zeihan’s book, “Disunited Nations“. Highly recommended for anyone with an interest in geopolitics and where the world is going in the future. Green energy is coming. We all know it. Governments will be spending a lot for green infrastructure. Due to the fiscal policy required to combat covid, taxes need to go up. The best way is through green taxes because they know the people will not complain. Government will say these taxes are going to be used for green infrastructure which will aid in an economic recovery and creating jobs. The issue, as Mr. Zeihan states, is that solar panels and wind turbines need to be put in areas that are very sunny and/or windy. These areas tend to be where the best agricultural land is situated. So nations would have to sacrifice agriculture for energy. In his book, Zeihan states that there only a few nations which can come out as winners in this predicament. China is not one of them. Do not panic, a lot of these issues can be remedied. In house and Greenhouse farming can be a way to cope with the effects of climate change and unpredictable weather patterns. Vertical integrated farming can be a solution to allow for green energy infrastructure to be built in the best agriculture lands, and can also be a solution for nations that do not have much agricultural lands. So yes there will be issues, but human ingenuity will get us through it. The question is how long will it take? I want to end of with Covid. It seems we are setting up for a food crisis next year. Tons of articles about supply chain disruptions due to covid and worsening food insecurity for many nations. If this winter turns out to be a dark winter due to covid cases, the likelihood of empty shelves increases. A lot of this could also have an impact on the prices of agricultural commodities. Canada is already preparing for this. In Canada’s Food Price Report 2021, bread, meat and vegetable prices are set to rise between 3-5% in 2021. The average Canadian family will pay up to $700 more for food in 2021. The agricultural charts are pointing to higher food prices. Covid and Climate will have impacts, and hence why I am bullish on this sector going forward.
OANDA:CORNUSDLong
by Uncharted-FX
Inverse H&S on the Verde Agritech weekly chart targets $1.00The weekly chart of Verde Agritech is showing an inverse head and shoulders pattern that appears to have completed. A breakout from the current level (~$0.57) will confirm the pattern. The distance from the head to the neckline is $0.43, so the target of this chart pattern is $1.00. Fundamentals are supportive in that the company is establishing itself as a domestic supplier of potash to the Brazilian agricultural market and is steadily growing production and revenues. The product has been shown to be highly effective for coffee, soybeans and other crops while also being less damaging to the soil.
ALong
by carbon8ed
Obese EU NA MEX populations will fight like for toilet paperHey I'm looking more into those commodities that I understand and had success with rather than popular stocks where I ALWAYS lose (and I do not see what the purpose of short term speculators even is with stocks), or crypto that never does anything because it is dead. Sugar this year has been doing a daily volume of usually around 2 billion usd if the ICE data is correct. Looking just at the front month it would be about 1. With all the price controls and governments throwing subsidies at sugar farmers the futures market is only a shadow of its past glory, but the laws of supply & demand did not disappear and it still has a purpose. At least letting governments know how much purchasing power they will have to steal from their populations to throw at wealthy farmers. The ICE is the place to find info about sugar 11 www.theice.com The CME tries to compete, and their site is much better than that thing above ^ They are a good place to look at. www.cmegroup.com Here you can find a map differentiating beet & cane producer. It is reather easy: old world christians, muslims, japanese produce beet, rest of the world south of those places makes cane sugar. www.czarnikow.com Climate change is surreal humour in a bubble and check weather data for yourself. www.holiday-weather.com www.timeanddate.com en.tutiempo.net Brazil no rain no rain no rain no rain India storm storm storm storm This summer was so cold, did not hear the media, except in august when it was hot for part of it. Some FUD "Production will go up" "Production dropped" kek, media. www.financialexpress.com www.business-standard.com The addicts will get their fix no matter what it takes no matter the price. Stronger than cocaine. Also there is something with this time of year and the way the contract works. It's sort of like Oil 😉
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by MrRenev
SOYBEAN IS TRYING TO MOVE AWAY FROM DOWNTREND - ZS1! - 30MNWe have observed several forces acting as a brake and pushing the price above the red down trending line. But a very strong squeeze front last tops have seen the market being inconsistent with its which to move upwards. The two horizontal black lines are the new tops and bottoms of the horizontal trending range. We could observe during this week a market which will try to break above by going directly to it or by finding first a a support point on the top of the red down trending line. The probability to see the market breaking above the black resistance line is less likely than seeing a pullback down again at that level. It could probably be a good sells entry point (possibily from Thursday). For the moment the last volume have shown signs of a force pushing up against sellers. Keep an eyes on the $900 mark, still legit and try to trade it during the morning Asian session (Tokyo time from 9am30 to 12pm and opening of the Frankfurt & London 8am to 10am GMT0) as it is more stable and easy to read.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
COROMANDEL INTERNATIONAL | BULL FLAGCOROMANDEL INTERNATIONAL is into manufacturing of chemicals & agro chemicals. With Agri sector emerging as only COVID resilient sector the stock breaking out above previous ATH warrants attention. The stock seems to be on a strong upward momentum with next potential target at around 835. The stock seems to be a good buy around 20 period Moving Average (Daily time frame) at about 745 with a stop below 723(Daily closing basis) for a target of 835.
NSE:COROMANDELLong
by covaitraders1
3
Wheat Daily and 4 hour Setup PlayThe idea can be triggered here on the 4 hour, but first let us take a look at the daily chart. We are at an important resistance zone on the daily chart. At around the 5.82 zone. What has caught my attention is the many indecision candles we have here. The two doji candles, candles with large wicks on either side. What this shows us is that there is a battle between the bears and the bulls at this resistance zone. We should definitely be paying attention to price here. Moving down to the 4 hour chart, and we can see there are more confluences pointing to a possible downside move, and indeed, presents us with a trigger set up. Just looking at market structure here, it shows us an uptrend with higher lows and higher highs. We have had more than two swings which is what we want to look for. At this resistance zone, we began to range. Look at the wicks here. The fake out candles. Price began to break out but reversed and closed below the previous open highs. This is why we remain patient and await candle closes before taking trades. This fake out trapped many traders to the upside. We can also say that not only do we have a range here, but in fact, one can make an argument that there is a double top/ triple top at this level. Another good pattern we look for potential trend exhaustion. Putting those two together, the topping pattern and at a resistance level, already give us a good possibility of a downward move. What we are now awaiting is for a break below this flip zone here (area that has been both support and resistance) at 5.620. Going back and looking to the left, you can see the importance of this zone with multiple touches. We have had a bounce at this zone but I am looking for a reversal and then a break below the flip zone. This would create our first lower high swing that we can work with in a new down trend. Price does seem ready to roll over. On the fundamental side, there are stories now about supply chains being disrupted due to the virus. Hearing about rice farming and other crop farming being halted in parts of Asia. Stories like this are out of our hands, but can go against this trade idea. We shall await the developments and see if we get the break.
OANDA:WHEATUSDShort
by Uncharted-FX
Corn can Test Resistance Levels Hello friends, especially in the Agricultural Commodity Market : Corn and Soybeans had been trading discounted for a long time. I shared my prediction earlier because the Soybeans exceeded intermediate resistance. That analysis continues (On related ideas) Now it's time for Corn. Because Corn just broke up its minor resistance, under the influence of the buy signal. When we look at the relevant Terminals 14 Weeks Period : Autonomous LSTM Adaptive Period : We can observe that it is being discounted. It contains a very nice Risk / Reward Ratio. So it can be tried with a low amount of position. The parameters I recommend for this analysis: Risk/Reward Ratio : 1/2.99 Position Size : % 1 Stop-Loss : 3.622 Goal : 4.435 Let us not go into heavy positions, if an otherwise sudden development occurs, we keep our lead when the conditions improve. Regards.
OANDA:CORNUSDLong
by Noldo
3