Selling AGS at break of recent low.Ageas - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 40.19 (stop at 41.42)
The primary trend remains bearish.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A break of the recent low at 40.28 should result in a further move lower.
Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains.
A higher correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 37.11 and 36.51
Resistance: 42.65 / 43.40 / 44.60
Support: 41.60 / 40.30 / 39.20
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AGS
Buying AGS on dips.Ageas - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 36.61 (stop at 35.38)
Buying posted close to the previous low of 36.56.
Levels below 37.00 continue to attract buyers.
We look to buy dips.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Short term momentum is bearish.
We look for a temporary move lower.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Our profit targets will be 39.66 and 40.66
Resistance: 40.00 / 41.50 / 43.00
Support: 38.30 / 37.50 / 36.50
Daily chart
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Soybeans Calling BIG down day today for beans. Looks like a weak Argentina crop cant compete with a +500bu carryout in the US. And talk of farmers increasing acres... How is the thought of that going to help things.
This tariff talk... Not going to be friendly in regards to US exports to china.
And about those technicals...
I mean come on. This market was OVERBOUGHT. end of story.
I think this one is a near term short play. Momentum is headed down. Get out of the way and catch a ride down the hill. New support will be found or it will head all the way down to the lower parallel.
I mean yes, large specs are still long overall, and this thing could get choppy with another super dry forecast over the weekend. Buuuuut too many bearish indicators in this one telling us its due for a little beating.
How much lower could we go? That is the magic question my friend. But for now, sure feels like some short term profit potential is calling.
We will see how this plays out...
Soy beans set up spread longSoy on the year over year spread is getting to its widest point and could be setting up a good buying spot. This is a great way to get long beans from this low with great reduction of buying power. After a confirmed bounce off bottom and if we still have enough time will look to adding a theta component to the trade. Please feel free to ask questions.
CT overbought. Looking for sideways to take a breatherTechnically overbought. New highs made with declining volume. Not an indicator for continued strength. Overall uptrend is intact, but we are near upper end of trend channel. On top of that market is overbought based on BB, RSI and Stochastik.
Targets:
1. Middle bollinger Band
2.Upsloping red shorter term trendline
3. Longer term red trend line, and 100 day MA and lower BB (all similar area). --> big support
4. 200 day MA (yellow)
Things point to 140 for now (2nd month continuation)Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO.
short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies.
1x2 put spreads 10 to 15 cents wide for flat selling the 2 buying one over two month could be good IMHO
Still waiting, beware bulls; risk reward not so greatPro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
Contra (Chart):
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
IMHO I start looking into selling put spreads out in August or September. For example the U16 110/100 p spread.
Due to the negative put skew, 1x2s also work great IMHO (selling the one buying the 2s are also an interesting idea).
Not bad risk/reward IMHOPro bullish:
- Slight bullish divergence on RSI and Stochastik
- market running into support at lower end of trend channel
- lower Bband at lows
- Spreads steady
Pro neutral:
- nothing clear cut yet in terms of buy signal
This is a good risk reward IMHO