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Long AI Short HypeFighting innovation is a fool’s errand. Getting entangled in hype is no less. Generative AI is drawing attention. ChatGPT skyrocketed in popularity since launch last November. With its intuitive responses, it has become the fastest-growing app in history reaching one million users in five days and 100 million in two months. In contrast, Google took 12 months and Facebook required four years to get there. The virality highlights the potential disruptive power of generative AI. Disruptive innovation is not new. Railways in 1800s to Blockchain in the recent past provide ample history. As observed before, innovation takes time to mature. Yet the hype cycle races ahead only to plunge in time to normalise. This paper uses iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) as a proxy to cutting edge innovation. XT invests in global firms with exposure to exponential tech, which displaces older tech. It invests across nine themes comprising of firms in both developed and emerging markets that create or use exponential tech. This paper argues for gains to be harvested from sinking hype using a spread trade. A long position in CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures (MNQ) combined with a short position in XT will deliver a compelling 1.49x reward to risk ratio. HISTORY OF HYPED INNOVATION Gartner hype cycle graphically depicts disruptive innovation journey. First comes the climb to peak hype. Second, fall to trough of disillusion. Third, slope of enlightenment followed by plateau of productivity. Using Google Trends as a proxy for hype cycle, it shows that market mania around AI is not new. AI searches surged in 2011 with the launch of Siri, Cortana, and IBM’s Watson. With natural language processing tech still in infancy, practical applications were limited then. And soon, the frenzy fizzled. Innovation in new machine learning algo such as convolutional neural networks and deep learning led to the launch of ChatGPT. Its potential is clear. Yet the tech is in early stages requiring a lot more work before it can mount serious challenge to existing tools. Tech parity will take considerable time let alone the meaningful monetisation which requires legal and ethical AI use hurdles to be cleared. One of the foremost examples of Gartner’s Hype Cycle is the boom in US Railways between 1840-1860. Hopes of ever-increasing returns attracted large scale investments only to result in eventual disappointment. Illustrations from recent past (Crypto, IoT, and Blockchain) shows similar fate of over-hyped tech. CURRENT HYPE IN XT, C3 AI, AND BEIJING DEEP GLINT A 23% surge in price in iShares Exponential Technologies ETF since mid-October last year is emblematic of Gartner’s hype cycle. This is even more evident in the share price of C3.ai. Founded by legendary entrepreneur Tom Siebel, this company was named C3 Energy when formed. It changed its name to C3 IoT in 2016 and then renamed again to C3.ai in 2019 to ride the waves of hype. US equities cannot claim monopoly over hype. Equities elsewhere get swayed too. Shares in Beijing Deep Glint Technology also rallied 80% spurred by ChatGPT. However, last week, the company announced challenges in offering ChatGPT-linked products causing its shares to tank 10%. ROAD AHEAD FOR GENERATIVE AI Generative AI is here to stay. Infancy for now but the tech will mature. Competition will rise. Winners will emerge. But monetization is another story altogether. Favouring innovation while frowning on hype fuelled by inflated expectations, this case study proposes a spread trade. A long position in CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures (MNQ) combined with a short position in iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) delivers a compelling 1.49 reward to risk ratio. TRADE SET UP Why a spread trade? In the short term, elevated levels of uncertainty have left experts puzzled on whether we are in a bull market or a bear market rally. Hence, to extract pure alpha (by neutralising beta) of securing gains from diminishing hype, this case study proposes a spread trade. The spread will gain in a bullish market when MNQ rises relative to XT. Similarly, the spread will gain in a bearish market when XT falls more than MNQ. CME’s Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures expiring in June 2023 (MNQM2023) provides a notional exposure to $2 x Nasdaq-100 index. With MNQM2023 settling at 12,525.50 on February 17th, the futures provide a notional exposure of $25,051. XT settled at $52.58 on the same day. A spread requires notional value of both the legs to be identical. Therefore, this requires short selling 476 units of XT for a short exposure of $25,028. • Entry: 238.218 • Target: 255 • Stop: 227 • Profit at Target: $ 1,760 • Loss at Stop: $ 1,180 • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.49x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description. REFERENCES www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:MNQM2023Long
by mintdotfinance
18
How the Crypto market is controlled!! (Artificial Intelligence)How we know the crypto market is controlled by AI (Artificial Intelligence). This becomes evident when you study the cycles and patterns in market behaviour. For example Friday 8pm it turns off for the weekend, leaving just retail investors left, hence why the volume is always lower on weekends. The AI wakes up again Sunday evening, 6pm EST. Bringing back the volume and with it either a pump or dump. Again, it’s evident when observing the 56-58 day cycle low. These patterns couldn’t possibly occur without a force controlling and influencing the market. It’s highly unlikely, likely that everyone invested in cryptocurrencies sells at the same time or buys at the same time in order to dump or pump the market. In order for the market to maintain equilibrium, there has to be a governing force that is able to stabilize and control it. The influence this has on the market is the ability to liquidate shorts or longs, as well as pump the pockets of the elite and institutions, banks and corporations. The AI will automatically make trades that are beneficial to those that created it and control it. It will exchange various new world order coins in order to control the market and to strike fear into the heart of the retail investors. So many people are liquidated by it in order to remove public interest, so the real gains can be made by those with governance. By utilizing the same systems that have been around since the beginning of time (Astrology, lunar cycles, numbers and dates) the AI is able to plot its coordinates to create cycles and patterns that are there for interpretation. This is how I’ve been able to make calls months in advance by understanding these ritualistic cycles
Short
by chevs710
5
NVDA more AI Deep Learning news has + effectNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is currently trading at a price of 268 with a 1.46% increase in the price from the previous trading day. The stock has a 1-month high of 275.89 and a 1-month low of 222.97. The stock has been rated as "Sell" based on the oscillator rating. In terms of technical indicators, the Average Directional Index (14) is at 21.23, indicating a weak trend. The Awesome Oscillator is at 14.20, indicating a slight bullish momentum in the stock. The Relative Strength Index (14) is at 62.97, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. The Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) is at 53.72, indicating that the stock is in neutral territory. The stock's moving averages are bullish, with the Simple Moving Average (10) at 266.78, Exponential Moving Average (20) at 260.38, Exponential Moving Average (50) at 246.21, Exponential Moving Average (100) at 226.86, and Exponential Moving Average (200) at 203.67. The Moving Averages Rating is "Strong Buy". The stock has a YTD performance of 80.44%, indicating strong performance over the year. The 5-year performance of the stock has been very impressive, with a gain of 378.30%. The stock's beta is 1.88, indicating that it is more volatile than the overall market. The stock belongs to the Electronic Technology sector and has a Bull Bear Power of 9.05. The Parabolic SAR is at 275.20, which is above the current stock price, indicating a bearish trend. The Pivot Fibonacci P is at 264.99, and the Pivot Camarilla P is also at 264.99. Overall, based on the technical analysis and the stock's performance, I would rate this stock as a "Buy". However, investors should keep in mind the high volatility of the stock due to its high beta value.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by BorsaMerkezi
AI demand for NVIDIA Corporation may be highThe current price of NVDA is $273.36, with a change of 1.2221006% or $3.3004. The 1-month high of NVDA is $273.72, while the 1-month low is $204.21. NVDA has a neutral Oscillators Rating and an Average Directional Index (14) of 24.3032124. The volume of NVDA is 3861534, with a Volume*Price of 1055588934.24. The Awesome Oscillator is 21.80404559, and the Average True Range (14) is 6.57088041. The Commodity Channel Index (20) of NVDA is 135.26327924. The Bull Bear Power of NVDA is 28.90035763 which is not so great but still... and the Parabolic SAR is 244.2860477. The volatility of NVDA is 4.47078553, with a volatility week of 4.02974793. The Relative Volume is 0.17944919, with a Technical Rating of Buy. The YTD Performance of NVDA is 84.03400444, while the Change 1M, % is 17.72437112. Based on the data, AI demand for NVIDIA Corporation may be high, as the company's YTD Performance is significant and its Technical Rating is Buy. The high Relative Volume may indicate increased interest in trading NVDA, potentially due to the positive performance and technical indicators.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by BorsaMerkezi
3
Intraday ES 22nd March - Gamma + Options + Darkpool analysisGEX: Positive Price above Gamma Flip Point - decreased Volatility Structure of Gamma: Mostly negative, spread across multiple strikes Expected Range: 3991 - 4077 Most probable end-of-day outcome: Price close above most negative gamma spikes (3990, 3940, 3840). Therefore Key Support is at 3940. Gamma Spikes chart from my AI Data Analysis software Yesterday's session was skyrocketing and honestly despite observing incoming Supply to the market near Resistance, price reacted weak to this area and after couple of hours continued to increase. As the result, we fulfilled most probable end-of-day outcome, but plan wasn't met accordingly to my expectations. Well, this is market magic 🙂 For today's session, we have similar expected end-of-day outcome where Support at 3940 is below bottom level of expected trading range at 3991. In general, on 3990 we see gamma spike, so this level works as significant support too. After climbing up, any supports are much lower than level of current price so seems the market can start shifting into Bullish sentiment. It's too early to confirm that, but something is happening. Let's keep observing. From Resistance perspective, we have spike at 4040. Plan for today's trades I marked on second chart attached to analysis. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by skyline-trader
3
AI/USDT ( Multiverse ) Trade Analysis for Short TermAI/USDT Technical Analysis: Good Entry Price and Potential 10%-50% Gains AI/USDT is currently trading at $0.001436 and presents a good entry opportunity according to technical analysis. The green box on the chart indicates the entry zone for this trade. The recommended price targets for this trade are $0.001691, $0.001933, $0.002291, $0.002600, and $0.002973, with a stop loss set at $0.0012. If the price holds above the stop loss, there is potential for gains of 10%-50% within a 5-15 day timeframe. It's important to note that before entering this trade, investors should consider the risk-reward ratio and ensure they are comfortable with the potential risks involved.
ALong
by CryptoPatel
When Chips Are Down, They Rebound Slowly But StronglyWhen Chips are down; invest if you can and hedge if you must. Having soared in 2020 & 2021, semiconductor shares tanked brutally as tremors from geopolitics, sinking consumer confidence and bloated inventory struck. Q4 overhang is dragging the industry down in the near term, which might have set a bearish outlook in the short-term, but times are changing. Structural forces and business cyclicality are now becoming robust tail winds for semiconductors, bringing a bullish outlook in the medium-to-long term for the sector. Therefore, this case study argues that an asynchronous time spread in CME E-Mini PHLX Semiconductor Sector Futures ("CME Semiconductor Futures") could potentially deliver a 2.8x reward to risk ratio by first taking a short position in futures expiring in March 2023 followed by a path-dependant long position in futures expiring in September 2023. INDUSTRY ON THE CUSP OF A SUPERCYCLE Chips everywhere. Semiconductors are ubiquitous as products become sophisticated. Rapid growth of mobile devices, emergence of EVs, and rising cloud adoption have created endless demand for higher processing speeds and larger memory. Chipmakers have benefited from this trend. Anticipated exponential growth in consumer durables, IoT, gaming, EVs, and AI/ML will translate into strong sustained demand for chips. Speaking at World Economic Forum, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella asserted that AI would go mainstream not in years but in months. Emergence of generative AI will form a fresh stream of demand for chips. EVs require twice as much chip content than traditional ones. Rising cloud usage will amplify demand from datacentres for graphics processing units (GPUs). In short, semiconductor industry is on the cusp of a demand super cycle. DEMYSTIFYING THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ("SOX") is a market capitalization-weighted index comprising of the top thirty (30) semiconductor firms listed in the US. Top names include Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML forming 48% of SOX. The top ten comprise 80% of the SOX. SOX rallied 202% from its low in March 2020 to its high in November 2021. As monetary policy shifted from QE to QT, SOX plunged 46% in 2022 touching its lowest level in October 2022. Since then, it has bounced back 43%, outperforming both NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 which are up merely 10% during the same period. A CYCLICAL INDUSTRY Semiconductors industry is inherently cyclical given the considerable time lapse between spotting fresh demand and matching them with new supply. In a recent report, JP Morgan cited that semiconductor stocks are close to a cyclical bottom. Each time the industry hits a bottom, it recovers impressively. In one-year and three-years following a cyclical dip, shares in this sector spike 40% and 95% on average, respectively. While short term demand looks bleak on waning consumer confidence, the USD 600-billion industry's long-term prospect looks resolutely bright. LET THE AI WARS BEGIN Revolutionary AI: ChatGPT made its debut in November. It sprinted to a million users in just five days. The excitement in generative AI is palpable. It will revolutionise content generation while delivering vast productivity gains in others. Inflection ahead: AI is approaching an inflection point. Its usage is going mainstream. Expect tech giants to invest heavily to outcompete. If this marks the start of AI wars, the semiconductor firms that make AI work will harvest outsized profits. Shovel makers hit jackpot: During the gold rush, it was the shovel makers that got rich more so than the diggers. In this AI gold rush, the shovel makers (i.e., the semiconductor stocks) are set to reap enormous gains. Nvidia already shining: Nvidia is the market leader in GPUs whose parallel processing capabilities form the core for delivering AI. ChatGPT adoption alone could bring incremental revenues of up to USD 11 billion over the next year, Citigroup estimates. TSMC & ASML well positioned: Nvidia GPU production depends on two firms - (a) the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), and (b) ASML Holdings (ASML). Berkshire stake in TSMC: TSMC recently announced stunning Q4 earnings. Its net sales grew 42.8% YoY, while its net profits & EPS were up 78% YoY contributing to an ROE of 26.4%. Little wonder that TSMC was one of Warren Buffett's recent investments where his firm acquired USD four billion of TSMC shares last November. ASML dominance: Meanwhile ASML commands a monopoly on key tech (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography or EUV). EUV is used in producing cutting-edge nano chips that AI requires. ASML is set to secure a windfall on rising AI adoption. CHIPS ACT TO RESHORE PRODUCTION Supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic exposed the vulnerability of over-reliance on globalisation. Russia-Ukraine conflict caused adverse impact with Russia being a major supplier of Palladium and Ukraine being a key source of Neon gas. To reduce over-reliance in a key industry, US last year legislated the CHIPS Act which is aimed at reshoring production on US soil supported by more than USD 150 billion of grants and tax incentives. NO PAIN, NO GAIN IN A V-SHAPED PATH AHEAD Supply ramped-up but a little too late: Clogged supply chains plus demand spike during the pandemic fuelled chip shortage. Ramped up production which always takes a long lead time arrived but at a time of pale consumer demand (PC demand down 28% YoY) late last year. Frail consumer sentiment: Persistent inflation, recession fears, and uncertain outlook, meant lower consumer durable sales. This has slashed demand for semiconductors resulting in one of the largest inventory corrections in the industry. The sector is cooling faster and getting colder than expected. Firms face a tough market saddled with excess inventory compounded by frail end-markets except for automotives. Downgraded chips: Intel reported a loss for Q4 last year and expects a weak first half this year with return to growth in second half. Earnings from other industry majors point to significant headwinds. Analysts have downgraded several chip stocks. Fund flows in ETFs: Fund flows into and out of leveraged ETFs this year show investor activity is moving in tandem with these macro shifts. The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF (3 times long exposure to SOX) suffered net outflows of $341 million while the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x ETF (3 times short exposure to SOX) gained net inflows of $1.1 billion. Insiders are Net Sellers: Insider Activity among majors show that they have been net sellers over the last three months except for Qualcomm, Intel and Applied Materials. Bullish Price Targets: In sharp contrast to this gloomy outlook, analysts covering the top stocks anticipate an average +15% price gain over the next 12-months. TRADE SET-UP This case study proposes a two-legged calendar spread as set out below. Each CME Semiconductor Futures contract provides exposure to twenty-five (25) index points approximating to USD 75,000 in notional with required margin of USD 5,900. TRADE LEG 1 : A short position in the contract expiring in March 2023 will provide exposure to the short-term correction. Entry: 2978 Target: 2571 Stop Loss: 3180 Profit At Target: $10,175 Loss At Stop: $5,050 TRADE LEG 2 : A long position in CME Semiconductor Futures expiring in September 2023 will provide exposure to recovery in the latter part of the year. Entry: 2710 Target: 3718 Stop Loss: 2410 Profit At Target: $25,200 Loss At Stop: $7,500 Aggregate Reward-Risk Ratio: 2.8x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
TVC:SOXLong
by mintdotfinance
2
$AMD: Long term trend is up$AMD is a leading chipmaker that provides processors for various applications of generative AI, such as ChatGPT, Bing, and Bard. Generative AI is a technology that can create new content based on existing data, such as text, code, images, and music. ChatGPT is a generative AI model that can write prose, code, and much more. It has been hailed as the most powerful and unpredictable technology of this generation. Generative AI has the potential to revolutionize and expand the creator economy by enabling new forms of expression and innovation. It can also improve efficiency and productivity in various sectors by automating tasks and generating insights. By adopting generative AI, chatgpt can transform the economy with higher efficiency, which allows economic growth despite slowing demographics long term. $AMD benefits from this trend by providing high-performance chips that power generative AI applications and platforms. $AMD seems ready to rally steadily from here, long term trend is up and we should participate on the upside with low risk entries like this one. Try to not miss out on this one. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by IvanLabrie
AI - Breakout Falling Trend [MIDTERM]- AI has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel in the medium long term. - AI has given a positive signal from the rectangle formation by a break up through the resistance at 21. - Further rise to 28 or more is signaled. - AI has marginally broken down through support at 23. - An established break predicts a further decline. - Volume has previously been high at price tops and low at price bottoms. - Volume balance is also positive, which strengthens the stock. - Overall assessed as technically neutral for the medium long term. *EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, LT TP: Long Term Target Price Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NYSE:AI
by wavepoint99
The OCEAN is Bumpy 🌊 Analysis #14/50Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on DAILY: Left Chart OCEAN is overall bearish , however we are approaching a strong demand zone and previous major high. So we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H4: Right Chart OCEAN is bearish from a short-term perspective trading inside the falling red channel. 🏹 Trigger => for the bulls to take over, we need a new high to form and then a break above the upper red trendline and red zone. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, OCEAN can still trade lower till the 0.25 demand zone . 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
O
by TheSignalyst
8
AAPL Aims to Reach $160 Target in Near FuturePrice action in financial markets often gravitates towards key supply zones, which are areas where selling pressure has previously been strong enough to drive prices lower. Traders and investors often use supply zones as important levels to watch for potential price reversals or to enter short positions. AAPL is no stranger to this, and when looking at the price action mixed with the key indicators on this 4h timeframe, we can see the last few times that the wave master indicator called a buy and sell: DEC 10 2021: SELL: 179.50 (-6%) DEC 30 2021: SELL: 178.19 (-14%) FEB 03 2022: SELL: 173.00 (final warning -14% before -27%) JUN 14 2022: BUY: 133.25 (+32%) JAN 05 2023: BUY: 126.50 (+22.4% so far) We're not geting a solid sell signal yet, but we're darn close. Look at ALL the waves. red, yellow, white are all overbought and the green wave is almost there. That will be the first time we've seen this since Feb 03 2022 but the chart formation looks more like the DEC 30 sell signal. I'd be very cautious as a drop is likely to occur over the next 1-2 weeks. Probably won't be super deadly like other drops have been but it'll be enough to kill some late bulls for sure.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by bitdoctor
4