Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?MSFT is one of the few tech stocks which trades close to all-time highs, seemingly oblivious to the brutal valuation reset that swept through the sector
In the most recent quarter, MSFT delivered strong results when factoring in the tough macro environment. MSFT grew revenues by 7% (10% constant currency) and earnings per share by 10% (14% constant currency) - two achievements not necessarily typically seen under difficult economic circumstances.
MSFT generated $8.64 billion of that operating income from its productivity and business processes segment, which houses its Office 365 product suite among others. As to be expected, LinkedIn revenue growth came in light at just 8%, a reflection of lower hiring demand.
MSFT generated another $9.4 billion in operating income from its intelligent cloud segment. Azure grew at a 27% clip, far surpassing the 16% growth seen at competitor Amazon Web Services
Investors have been cautious on the ever-valuable cloud business ever since the cloud titans all revealed cloud optimization efforts undertaken by its customers. On the conference call, management implied that they may see easing headwinds as they pass the anniversary of those optimization efforts, stating that “at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further.” It is possible that MSFT’s partnership with ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI has something to do with that, as management noted that while they do not consolidate any operating losses due to them holding a minority equity interest, they do indeed recognize revenues generated from OpenAI using their cloud services. The other cloud titans did not offer the same bullish commentary surrounding the end of cloud optimization.
MSFT continued to see headwinds from its more personal computing segment, which saw revenues decline by 9% though still managed to generate $4.24 billion in operating income. At some point the comps should become easier here, but that may still be a couple of quarters away.
MSFT ended the quarter with $104.5 billion in cash versus $48.2 billion in debt. I note that the company also has another $9.4 billion in equity investments (the announced $10 billion investment in OpenAI is set to take place in parts throughout the year).
The company continues to pay a growing dividend and conducted $5.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter. It is not too often that one can get long term innovation and have the majority of free cash flow returned to shareholders as well.
Looking ahead, management has noted that overall growth may struggle due to the prior year’s quarter being a tough comp, with that being their “largest commercial bookings quarter ever with a material volume of large multiyear commitments.” Management did, however, guide for up to 27% in Azure growth, which seems to imply that the bottom for that segment may be very near if not already passed. Investors may be worried about how ongoing tech layoffs may impact Office 365 growth, but management appeared unfazed by this risk, citing that they continue to see strong demand for their product suites.
MSFT continues to show why it is a favorite tech stock in growth allocations, as it has shown resilient growth in the face of tough macro. The strong fundamentals have helped the stock sustain a premium valuation multiple, as the stock recently traded hands at just under 35x earnings.
Valuation remains the most obvious risk with that stock trading something between 50% and 100% higher than GOOGL depending on how many adjustments applied to the latter. With the stock trading so richly on present earnings, the stock could go nowhere for 7-10 years and still be trading at around 15x earnings at that time. Unless MSFT manages to sustain double-digit earnings longer than consensus, the stock will likely need to sustain a rich multiple in order to beat the market index. I note that this risk does not appear as large at the aforementioned mega-cap peers due to not just lower valuations but also due to MSFT appearing to already be operationally efficient with operating margins in excess of 40%. Another risk is that of potential disruption to its enterprise tech business. Wall Street appears to view the stock as being the strongest operator in any of its competing markets, but I do not share such views. In particular, I view competition from the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD),and GOOGL’s productivity suite as being underestimated risks. It is possible that MSFT is about to face long- term disruption just as its growth story is decelerating - which would have a catastrophic impact on multiples. Due to the near term upside from OpenAI, MSFT hit ATH and now its in pullback mode, I took huge profit and waiting for more confirmation
AI
C3.AI This Golden Cross is preparing something big.It's been almost 3 months since we last looked into C3.ai (AI) where (May 10, see chart below) we called for a but that easily hit its 29.00 Target:
The price rose even higher but now finds itself considerably lower (as with the rest of the market) within the long-term Channel Down. Last month though, the stock formed its first 1D Golden Cross since February 23 2023, which may be an early indication of a bullish break-out.
That early 2023 (Jan - Apr) fractal shows that after the post-1D Golden Cross peak, the correction that was completed on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level gave way to a strong rebound towards the 1.5 Fib extension. As a result, our medium-term Target on this is $42.00.
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Nvidia Adds $330 Billion in a Single DayNvidia's stock valuation skyrocketed, adding $330 billion in a single day, surpassing its prior record gain of $277 billion.
This increase was fueled by Microsoft announcing a 60% increase in AI spending for 2024, totaling $69 billion.
Consequently, Nvidia's stock price surged nearly 13%, elevating its market cap to $2.88 trillion and making it the third-most valuable company globally, behind Apple and Microsoft.
Despite this record-setting performance, Nvidia faced a tumultuous July, with its stock price decreasing by 16% throughout the month, closing down 5% despite a partial recovery.
This decline reflected broader market volatility, as seen in the Nasdaq’s 1.5% drop. On Tuesday, Nvidia's shares dipped 7%, testing the crucial $100 support level.
However, the positive response to Microsoft's investment suggests Nvidia might maintain its momentum above this critical threshold.
Last month, the stock hit multiple highs, peaking at $140 on June 20, indicating strong market confidence. For Nvidia to surpass this record high, its stock would need an additional 20% gain.
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ZOOM: $66 | From Video to an Ai Assistant somehowwe all know zoom DOMINATED during the the COVID Breakout
yet when the Vaccine was rolled out by WHO and Fauci it discounted quickly to rollback to where it came from
Google Meeting is killing it Microsoft meeting is getting a piece of the pie
the ai angle in zoom iQ may take a while for ENTERPRISE players to digest
to put it simply its a business to business model
that reminds me of Business INtelligence of Msoft or
EXECUTIVE DASHBOARD appls back in 2005ish
it's a different flavor of BARD or HER that Robot Assistant movie
needs a great PACKAGER to roll this out
if this pans out.. this can be YUUUUGE!
ZOOM iQ = a glorified Executive Assistant that summarizes meetings.
AbCellera: $15 | a Gem under the radar should be the next crispr or illumina ... it supplies stuff to MODERNA
it could be the secret sauce in pre diagnotics or preventing diseases before they become serious
currently winding down and allocation of shares to serious players and strong hands with conviction in the Ai Tech Cum Biologics
Microsoft Earnings Raise Fears Over AI Spending. Bubble Go Pop?Playing catch-up is big among the highflyers of technology as the Magnificent Seven club races to slurp up AI demand. But is AI spending going to lead to AI bonanza? It’s not that straightforward.
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) reported its earnings update for the spring quarter Tuesday after the closing bell. But it failed to appease investors who seem to be waking up to a reality where the billions of dollars jammed into artificial intelligence might not that easily convert into coveted profits.
The AI-optimistic large-cap behemoth has spent piles of cash on advancing its artificial-intelligence capabilities without much to show for it. Markets punished the stock in after-hours trading with shares diving as deep as 8% — a drop that later recovered but still lingered under the flatline.
“Throw Some AI in There, They’ll Love It”
You know how much CEOs love to throw AI in their earnings calls? Microsoft boss Satya Nadella praised the company’s AI efforts in the call with shareholders but even the overuse of AI couldn’t bring the feelgood factor.
Microsoft’s AI-powered cloud business, Azure, grew 29% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations and undershooting the 31% growth in the previous quarter. The company rushed to patch it up and assuage spooked investors, saying the slowdown was due in part to demand for AI running ahead of capacity.
Microsoft: Throws $55.7 billion in capital expenditures.
AI: * giggles, burps * "Thanks for the cash."
For the past three months — the company’s fiscal fourth quarter — Microsoft saw its capital expenditures balloon by almost 80% year-over-year to $19 billion. Moreover, for fiscal 2024, total capital expenditures, or how much the company spent on new stuff, hit $55.7 billion — a figure that is likely to get surpassed next year as Microsoft projects increased spending on AI.
Microsoft’s quarterly results are the latest example, after Google’s (ticker: GOOGL ) flop of an earnings report and Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA ) profit-squeezing quarter , of Big Tech’s lofty aspirations when it comes to AI. And the pushback reaction from investors shows that expectations are so high, it’s near-impossible to beat them.
Big Tech is racing to build out the infrastructure layer that will allow AI to scale so it can start churning out a profit. But the going has recently gotten tough. The Magnificent Seven club of tech mainstays washed out more than $1.5 trillion from its collective market value in the past three weeks.
The question that lingers on investors’ minds right now is how long can markets stay patient before they see revenue growth from AI materialize?
Let Us Know Your Thoughts!
With all the hype around AI, do you see a bubble in the works? Or justified no-froth, no-nonsense valuations? Share your thoughts below!
BOUNCE INCOMING!!This looks like a great area to anticipate a bounce.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
VIX 20 years Later !What will fuel this next Bull Market?
#AI and exponential gains in productivity seem like a fair bet.
The technology won't manifest properly in the next few years of course.
But the speculation and new companies will.
20 years ago we saw the trendline of the #VIX break
coming out of 9/11 and right around the time of the Iraq war
Military spending, Lowering of rates, a Housing boom , and the rise of Google and culminating in the iphone.
Seems eerily similar to the current #macro environment
SingularityNET / AGIX & AISingularityNET price today is $0.2 with a 24hour trading volume of 100 million dollar. AGIX price is up 8% in the last 24 hours and 330% up since last two weeks
but what is SingularityNET and why its pumping this hard? It is a blockchain powered platform that allows anybody to easily create, share, and monetize AI services through the SingularityNET marketplace, users can browse, test and purchase a huge variety of AI services using the platform’s native utility token AGIX. Moreover, the marketplace represents an outlet AI developers can use to publish and sell their AI tools, and easily track their performance.
SingularityNET was founded by Dr. Ben Goertzel in addition to Simone Giacomelli and Dr. David Hanson. the platform was first announced in 2017 and completed an initial coin offering in December the same year, raising $36 million in just one minute because no one know AI better than Dr.Goertzel also Jack Dorsey is one of the investors as well.
Agix and Fet pumped after Microsoft announced plans to invest in OpenA and Agix trading volume has surged 550% after that
0.17 was a good opportunity for scalpers to long and now its one the most important support levels. If you managed to buy it at 0.07$ take some profit too
C3ai unveils generative AI for government organizationsC3ai Inc. (NYSE: AI), a prominent developer of artificial intelligence tools, announced the launch of a generative AI application specifically tailored for government organizations on Monday. This move targets a significant growth area within the AI sector, where there is substantial interest from government entities actively investing in AI-driven tools.
The newly launched application is designed to serve federal and state governments, providing capabilities to process extensive data related to health, education, and employment programs. It offers functionalities such as answering inquiries about financial aid and managing other types of queries from millions of users, potentially transforming the efficiency and accessibility of government services.
Technical analysis of C3ai Inc. (NYSE: AI)
Let's evaluate the potential trading opportunities based on the current technical setup of C3ai's stock:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : The stock is currently in an uptrend
Resistance level : 30.80 USD
Support level : 29.50 USD
Potential downtrend target : Should the stock enter a downtrend, the downside target could be set at 26.00 USD
Short-term target : If the uptrend persists and the stock breaches the resistance at 30.80 USD, a short-term target could be 38.00 USD
Medium-term target : With sustained upward momentum, the stock price might rise to 48.00 USD
Investors should closely monitor C3ai's performance, especially considering the strategic expansion into the government sector with its new generative AI application. This development could significantly enhance the company's growth prospects and impact its stock performance.
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Earnings Season to Show if Big Tech Stocks Can Justify AI HypeUpper echelon of tech realm is expected to report the most profits since early 2022 as the bar is set high thanks to the big promise of artificial intelligence.
Earnings season is about to hit fever pitch with the biggest names in the corporate world getting ready to deliver spring-quarter financial updates. The bar is set high thanks to the promise of artificial intelligence to rewire how businesses operate, spend and make money.
How high exactly? All S&P 500 companies collectively are predicted to knock out the biggest increase in profits in more than two years — year-on-year earnings growth is pinned at 8.8% for the quarter ended June, the highest since the first quarter of 2022.
Froth or Not?
Stakes are high. The upcoming string of earnings data will show whether big tech high-flyers can justify the AI hype that has propelled stocks to record after record . The S&P 500 has notched more than 36 all-time closing highs this year and is sitting on gains of more than 18% since it started trading in January.
The Big Dogs
Apparently, optimism is sweeping left and right, lifting valuations of companies big and small. A handful of them have been singled out as the biggest group of winners. And — you guessed it — they’re all involved in the AI narrative.
Chipmaking giant Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) and a clique of big tech heavyweights are lined up to show if their earnings and revenue guidance will catch up to the sky-high valuations. Nvidia has more than doubled this year, soaring above $3 trillion in market value. Briefly, it became the world’s largest company . Its peers Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ), Facebook parent Meta (ticker: META ), Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL ) have rocketed to records this year as well.
Heavy Concentration
The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 fill up about 37% of its worth, which presently gravitates toward $48 trillion. This said, these 10 titans of capitalism contribute 24% to the broad-based index’s earnings — the highest ratio since 1990.
To keep going with the numbers, before we dive into what’s coming over the next few weeks, the S&P 500 companies are trading at 21.4 times their projected earnings over the next 12 months. For comparison, the average multiple for a five-year stretch is 19.7.
It gets even more interesting when you zoom in and double click on five tech titans — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. Their price/earnings multiples have ballooned to an average of 34 times projections, up from 28 times. The AI bellwether, Nvidia, has soared to 41 times, from 24 times in January.
Against that backdrop, analysts are quick to point out that a correction in stock prices may loom large if these corporate giants can’t beat out their earnings projections. Is there room for disappointment?
Stacked Up Against Expectations
Let’s go around the table and see what’s coming over the next few weeks. We’ll keep it tight so we’ll only look into the elite Magnificent Seven club .
July 23
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT )
Year-to-date performance: 23%
Revenue guidance: $64 billion
Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL )
Year-to-date performance: 33%
Revenue expectations: $79 billion
Tesla (ticker: TSLA )
Year-to-date performance: 0% ( find out the reasons ).
Revenue expectations: $20.16 billion
July 31
Meta (ticker: META )
Year-to-date performance: 44%
Revenue guidance: $36.5 billion to $39 billion
August 1
Apple (ticker: AAPL )
Year-to-date performance: 24%
Revenue expectations: $84 billion
Amazon (ticker: AMZN ) (date unconfirmed)
Year-to-date performance: 30%
Revenue guidance: $144 billion to $149 billion
August 21
Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) (date unconfirmed)
Year-to-date performance: 168%
Revenue guidance: $28 billion
Let's Hear from You!
Are we going to see another blockbuster quarter of record revenue and profits? Or is the AI hype overblown and could this mean big tech may let us down? Share your thoughts below!
TESLA PULLBACK Then Moon Mission!After a rejection from the weekly and daily levels, a pull back to $235 (Daily Level) or $202 (Demand Zone) is likely before higher prices.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NVDA Looks Good For Higher PricesLooking good for higher now that we are trading above the POC. We need to flip the VWAP into support next to really aim for the VAH (White Line).
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
RNDR Long Opportunity📉 RNDR/USDT Weekly Chart Analysis 📈
🌟 Trade Idea:
We're observing the RNDR/USDT perpetual contract on Binance. The price is currently showing signs of a potential reversal. We're targeting the **Sellside Liquidity** area for this setup.
💡 Key Levels:
- Current Price: **$6.10**
- **Sellside Liquidity** Zone: Around **$4.00-$5.00**
🔍 Trade Setup:
1. Wait for the price to tap into the **Sellside Liquidity** zone.
2. Look for bullish reversal signals within this zone.
🛠 Technical Indicators:
- **FVG (W)**: Fair Value Gap on the weekly chart could act as support.
📅 Timeline:
This setup is expected to play out over the next few weeks. Patience is key! ⏳
🔔 Action Plan:
- 📉 If the price dips into the liquidity zone, be prepared for a potential entry.
- 📈 Watch for confirmation of a reversal before entering a long position.
Good luck! 🚀
RNDR: Key Buy-Back Zones to WATCHRender has completed its bullish cycle and is now moving steeply into bearish phase. Now this does not mean I am not enthusiastic about RNDR - In fact, it was on my list of top AI coins to watch for 2024:
I also called for higher prices early on. And now, it's time for a pullback.
This is NOT a bad thing - it gives you a chance to buy back in at lower prices, in anticipation for the next rally! I've market two zones for each timeframe that I will be watching as potential zones for spot buys.
Don't miss yesterday's analysis on ETH:
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BINANCE:RNDRUSDT
Apple is BullishApple is bullish and in an uptrend channel on the daily timeframe.
With today's close will confirm, a break out above the resistance area around 195-200 (to become the new support/demand zone) and a break out of the double-bottom pattern. Target is set to the upper levels of the channel at 250.
NICE Ltd: Seeking Value While Riding The AI WaveKey Rationale:
Profitable technology firm with a track record of commercializing AI. World leader in two industries primed for significant growth, with a comprehensive suite of products and a treasure trove of historical data for AI training. Solid Growth profile and five-star valuation make it an ideal GARP investment.
Company Profile:
A tech powerhouse that’s quietly revolutionizing customer engagement and financial crime solutions. NICE Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud platforms for AI-driven digital business solutions worldwide. Nice is an enterprise software company that serves the customer engagement and financial crime and compliance markets. The company provides data analytics-based solutions through both a cloud platform and on-premises infrastructure. Within customer engagement, Nice's CXone platform delivers solutions focused on contact center software and workforce engagement management, or WEM. Contact center offerings include solutions for digital self-service, customer journey and experience optimization, and compliance. WEM products optimize call center efficiency, leveraging data and AI analytics for call volume forecasting and agent scheduling. Within financial crime and compliance, Nice offers risk and investigation management, fraud prevention, anti-money laundering, and compliance solutions. NICE Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Ra'anana, Israel.
Comments:
One of the best available Ex-U.S. stocks.
Narrow Moat, Exemplary Capital Allocation.
NICE’s long-term vision aligns with the AI revolution.
Recently beat on top-line and bottom-line estimates.
Recently announced a New $500 Million Share Buyback Plan.
5-Star Valuation on Morningstar, NICE is trading at a 36% discount.
Incessant selling is unwarranted and partially due to a CEO transition.
Multiple industry analysts rank NICE as a major player with the best technology.
Cloud Company with actual Profitable Growth, making NICE an intelligent investment in AI.
Publicly traded since 1996, NICE is not some hot new flash-in-the-pan AI IPO, it's got staying power.
CXone Mpower is the Ultimate CX-Aware AI Offering, Providing Continuous, Memory-Driven Human and AI Collaboration.
They are developing a moat around their AI offering due to the sheer scale of the number of transactions they perform each month.
Nice has strong user retention metrics, and cloud growth means greater recurring revenue.
Cincinnati Emergency Communication Center Leverages NICE to Improve Operations.
Italy’s Police Deploy NICE Inform at All Control Rooms Nationwide for Incident Intelligence.
Named the Leader In 2024 IDC MarketScape for Contact Center as a Service Report.
Named the Conversational Intelligence Market Leader in 2024 Opus Research Intelliview Report.
Recognized as Category Leader in the Chartis 2024 CLM Solutions for Corporate and Investment Banking Vendor Landscape Report
Proprietary Scores:
GreenBlue Cumulative Rank: 196/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenBlue Current Rank: 509/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenRed Current Rank: 348/499 (Lower = Better)
Gurufocus Score: 95/100 (Higher = Better)
Stellar Profitability, Growth, and Quality scores for a foreign company in GreenBlue (138, 488, and 233 out of 2982)
Competitors:
CRM, INTU, NOW, CDNS, SHOP, ROP, ADSK, DOCU, GWRE, TWLO, FIVN, RNG
Risks:
Foreign companies have embedded geopolitical risk.
Larger AI competitors eat their lunch. Microsoft's push into the contact center will increase competition.
Nice is undergoing a cloud transition, and the timing of legacy customer migration and degree of success on this front remains to be seen.
Prior personal investments in software application companies have been very risky. Failed investments include FIVN, RNG, and TWLO.
Crypto Market Weekly Analysis: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, BTC dominanceWelcome to our weekly analysis of the cryptocurrency space.
█ BTC/USDT
The BTCUSDT chart shows Bitcoin trading within a descending channel, with recent price action bouncing off the lower boundary of this channel, indicating potential support around the $53,000 level. The RSI indicates bullish divergence, suggesting a possible trend reversal or a strong bounce from this support level. Additionally, the Volume Profile on the right shows significant trading activity between $68,000 and $60,000, indicating key resistance levels above.
█ BTC.D
The Bitcoin dominance chart shows Bitcoin dominance forming a rising wedge pattern, which typically indicates a potential bearish reversal. The RSI is exhibiting a bearish divergence, suggesting weakening momentum and a possible decline in dominance. A breakdown from the wedge could target a significant decrease, aligning with the projected target area shown on the chart.
█ ETH/USDT
The ETHUSDT chart shows Ethereum trading within a descending channel, with recent price action rebounding off the lower boundary, suggesting potential support around the $1,850 level. The RSI is showing signs of a potential bullish divergence, indicating a possible trend reversal or a strong bounce from this support. The Volume Profile indicates significant trading activity between $3,200 and $3,600, suggesting key resistance levels above.
█ ETH/BTC
The ETH/BTC chart suggests upward action for the RSI and bullish patterns with a primary target of 0.06178 BTC and a secondary target at 0.06861 BTC. This follows the Bitcoin dominance bearish sentiment meaning more capital would flow into altcoins and Ethereum being their catalyst.
█ NASDAQ
Bitcoin has often been correlated to stocks , not that it's a good thing, however since Bitcoin's ATH in march we've seen stocks keep rising while Bitcoin ranging with around 30% downside from ATH. Nasdaq is at ATH right now and Bitcoin is not. The RSI suggests that stocks are overbought but not indicating a divergence yet.
█ BNB/USDT
The Binance coin is currently down 28% from its ATH after bouncing up +10% from its middle point of 450 $. I'm still bullish as long as the shift to altcoins scenario continues and RSI remains in the bullish area above 50.
█ SOL/USDT
Solana shows a bullish wedge and multiple bottoms of its 3 months support at 127 $. RSI is printing a bullish divergence. My primary target is 189 $ and 2nd is 210 $.
█ GAMING coins
EGLD has been outperforming Bitcoin and is the top performing gaming coin of the week.
█ Top cap coins
The biggest coins in market cap compared to Bitcoin shows Solana in first and AVAX in second.
█ AI coins
Artificial Intelligence coins compared to Bitcoin: INJ arrives first and NEAR second, but the global AI space isn't performing remarkably well.
█ MEME coins
Ending this analysis with meme coins , we can't ignore the fact that BONK is hard outperforming Bitcoin in first position.
Thanks for reading until here, I hope I can catch the time to make another analysis next week.