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Airbnb

Airbnb | ABNB Airbnb is the leader in Alternative Accommodations and experiences. I believe their community of individual hosts and strong brand differentiates them from travel peers. The emerging trend of long-term stays would boost Airbnb’s profit margins and expand the entire travel accommodation market size Airbnb estimates its current total addressable market to be $3.4 trillion, including $1.8 trillion in short term stays, $ 210 billion in long term stays, and $ 1.4 trillion in experiences. Coupled with a notably underpenetrated market size, the global travel market is growing at an above GDP rate. Airbnb’s current market penetration represents less than 2% of the share. As such, there is a huge runway for Airbnb’s growth over the next decade. In terms of competition, most Online Travel Agencies (OTA) provide traditional hotel accommodation (Marriott, Hilton, Accor, Wyndham, and InterContinental, for example). These OTAs are not the real competitors for Airbnb. Instead, Booking.com (BKNG) is expanding its traditional hotel business into the alternative accommodation industry. Expedia (EXPE) entered the alternative accommodation market via the acquisition of VRBO in December 2015. However, Airbnb has the first-mover advantage with a very strong brand. I believe Airbnb’s technology and supplies are superior to their peers, and it is hard for Expedia and Booking.com to compete against Airbnb in the alternative accommodations space. One of the main expenses for Online Travel Agencies is sales and marketing. They have to spend billions of dollars on Google, Facebook, and other social media platforms to attract traffic. The table below shows the sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of sales. Both Booking.com and Expedia spend almost half of their sales on sales and marketing. According to Airbnb’s disclosure, 80% of their website traffic comes from direct and organic search. In contrast, Booking.com and Expedia only have 60% direct traffic. In other words, Airbnb has the highest brand awareness among these travelers. With a high ratio of direct traffic and organic search, Airbnb spends much less than its peers. In Q1 FY23’s earning call, Airbnb indicated their sales and marketing expense as percentage of sales would remain the same in FY23. In late 2019, Airbnb's costs were rising, and growth was slowing. They spent a huge amount of money on performance marketing, which was basically selling their products as a commodity. Their product was looking less different from their competitors. When the COVID occurred, they lost 80% of sales in eight weeks, and they shut down all marketing spending. Interestingly, when the travel market rebounded, Airbnb's business came back to almost the same level as before, with much less marketing expenses. Currently, they spend much less on performance marketing, and most of their expenses are focused on their products/services. They have had 600,000 articles about Airbnb. These efforts have put Airbnb in a much better shape today. 90% of Airbnb's hosts are individuals. Airbnb can capitalize on the personal experience provided by these unique individual hosts, as opposed to a standard hotel service. Customers can find unique properties, differentiated amenities, as well as local insights from these individual hosts. Airbnb is putting in a lot of effort into the experience market. In Q4 FY22's earnings call, Airbnb expressed that they were beginning to ramp up their Airbnb Experience business and expect to launch more products/services over the coming years. In my opinion, Airbnb Experience may not bring notable direct sales to Airbnb, but it would enhance the stickiness and loyalty of Airbnb's customers. Airbnb Experience would make the Airbnb platform unique and boost their sales indirectly. Furthermore, Airbnb Experience could become more relevant with AI technology. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb disclosed that they are building AI into their products. Airbnb is working with OpenAI ChatGPT, and Airbnb will embed ChatGPT into their app. The AI powered product will be launched next year. Leveraging AI technology, Airbnb can make their Airbnb Experience and accommodation recommendations more relevant to any consumer. To put it another way, Airbnb would know your preferences for travel destinations and accommodations before you start searching for anything. Long-term Stay: As disclosed, 20% of Airbnb's gross bookings are long-term stays currently. Long-term stays are the fastest-growing segment in terms of trip length. The pandemic also accelerated some inevitable growth for long-term stays. Long-term stays mean higher margins for both hosts and Airbnb. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb indicated that long-term stays would be one of the biggest growth areas over the next five years. Airbnb made over a dozen upgrades to long-term stays based on affordability, and they also have new discounting tools for hosts on weekly and monthly stays. Airbnb expects more hosts to exclusively list long-term stays with Airbnb. In addition, 62% of Airbnb's guests are under 34 years old, and Airbnb is focusing on the next generation of travelers. These young customers are more likely to use Airbnb as the platform for long-term stays. The key thing to remember is that more long-term stays mean higher margins for Airbnb. Airbnb indicated that, in the current macroeconomic environment, consumers are looking for affordable ways to travel on Airbnb. Airbnb is adding more affordable accommodations to their platform. The average price of Airbnb rooms is only $67 per night. Before the pandemic, 80% of Airbnb's sales were coming from either cross-border or urban accommodations. The cross-border business would contribute more sales to Airbnb than other types of travel. The cross-border traveling could be very weak if high inflation persists. Despite this, the global travel market had been growing fast in the past, and I expect the growth will continue in the future. We are using a two-stage DCF model to estimate Airbnb’s fair value. In the model, we assume 20% of normalized sales growth rate, which we believe is quite conservative. We assume they can expand their operating margin by 30bps annually and will reach 25.5% in FY32.Their free cash flow conversion was quite healthy in the past, and we assume they will deliver 35.8% in FY32. In addition, we use 10% of WACC, and 15% of nonGAAP tax rate in the model. The present value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) over the next 10 years is estimated to be $32 billion, and the present value of terminal value is $88 billion. As such, the total enterprise value is estimated to be $120 billion. Adjusting gross debt and cash balance, the fair value of the stock price is $ 200, according to our estimate. All things considered, the huge underpenetrated market, strong brand awareness, and growing trend of long-term stays, in my opinion, will provide Airbnb with a huge runway for growth over the next decade. Their competitors are way behind them, and Airbnb would be the best player for the alternative accommodation service provider. In my view, the current stock price is significantly undervalued, and we encourage investors to buy during the weakness. at the end I always bet on Brian Chesky
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by moonypto
2
Who is buying this? I do not trade stocks because they do not live in the real world. They live in lala land where PE no longer matters. Reality has taken a back seat to FED jawboning and flagrantly cooked up jobs numbers. That being said, there are some opportunities that are too tempting to pass up! I do not even know where to start... This one really smells... from insiders dumping to the basic fundamentals around Airbnb. Airbnb has no moat! Assigning the majority of the vacation rental market to its market cap is lunacy. Competitors have already begun to take back market share offering the same exact listings with more competitive fee structures. Personally as a former Super host and and avid traveller I can state first hand that my experiences with Airbnb have gone from bad to worse. The percentage fees they charge both the host and the guest are outrageous when you consider what you actually receive from the platform... Nothing! In addition to user experience, the general view on STRs has shifted. This has created a difficult landscape for hosts and the platform as governments have regulated and outright banned the platform. Fundamentals of the business aside, the macro back drop for travel are bleak. The S&P is at all time highs but if you pop the hood the reality of the real economy is bleak. Savings are almost at record lows while credit card debt is at record highs. I can go on.... Personally, I am salivating at the prospect that some poor soul will continue to buy Airbnb and let me borrow their shares at the 140 level. If you are a believer in a "soft landing " I would approach this as a pair trade Historically 50 basis point cuts are BEARISH. They are a sign of panic by the fed. If the US does enter a recession travel will be one of the hardest hit sectors. $140-$155 is the zone in which I will build my short position.
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by TheSilverOracle
Airbnb (ABNB): Holding the line, but for how long?!After charting Airbnb one month ago, we’ve seen another slight dip, and one of our members rightly pointed out that Airbnb has reacted well to the $113.60 price level. This level has acted as support for the fourth time now, and it seems like it could hold. However, t here’s a big BUT —we’re not placing an entry just yet. Trying to catch the exact bottom of Wave 1 can be risky and extremely difficult. Instead, we are more focused on waiting for a possible short opportunity if Airbnb rises again. Airbnb continues to struggle, and we don't want to catch this falling knife too early, risking unnecessary losses. We’ll keep monitoring the situation closely, and if we gain more confidence that this is indeed the end of Wave 1, we’ll let you know. 🫡
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) Shares Surge on Bullish SentimentShares of Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) surged by 5.8% during early trading after Bernstein SocGen Research Group reiterated a 'Buy' rating on the stock. Despite recent pessimism, analysts argue that the market is undervaluing Airbnb’s potential, highlighting that revenue growth could surpass 10% with stable margins. However, after an initial jump, the stock settled at $122.08, up 3.9%, suggesting the market views the news as positive but not transformative. Technical Outlook From a technical standpoint, Airbnb’s stock has experienced considerable volatility over the past year, with nine moves greater than 5%. The stock recently broke out of its downward trajectory and is now in a rising trend, supported by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 55. This reading indicates a balanced position—neither overbought nor oversold—pointing to more potential for upward momentum. Adding to this bullish technical setup is the broader performance of the NASDAQ Composite Index, of which Airbnb is a part, currently up 19% year-to-date. This signals a strong market environment for tech and growth stocks, giving additional tailwinds to Airbnb's potential rise. Market sentiment is also keyed on Jerome Powell’s upcoming announcement regarding a potential interest rate cut. A favorable decision could further fuel Airbnb's momentum, making the stock more attractive to investors seeking to capitalize on lower borrowing costs. Fundamental Drivers While the technical outlook is promising, Airbnb’s fundamentals offer a more mixed picture. The stock is down 9.2% year-to-date, trading 27.4% below its 52-week high of $168.18. Investors who bought Airbnb shares during its IPO in December 2020 would now be looking at a 15% loss. Despite these challenges, Airbnb remains one of the most profitable tech companies globally, boasting impressive free cash flow generation and a vast network of over 8 million hosts. However, its recent earnings call raised some red flags. The company reported a 16.6% drop in stock price after missing Wall Street’s bookings and revenue guidance expectations. Additionally, Airbnb has signaled slower revenue growth for the second half of 2024, with a slight 1% downward revision in growth projections and a softened EBIT margin outlook due to stagnant development in its take rate. That said, CEO Brian Chesky has outlined key strategies to unlock what he calls "optionality value." This includes making hosting easier, expanding the "experiences" segment, and increasing event-based short-term rentals, like during the Paris Olympics, where Airbnb offered 150,000 homes. These initiatives could provide new avenues for growth and help the company diversify its revenue streams. Valuation and Future Prospects Airbnb’s current valuation sits at a fair value estimate of $120 per share, suggesting it’s slightly undervalued. However, its growth trajectory will heavily depend on its ability to successfully expand beyond its core offerings in home-sharing and capture new revenue streams, such as event hosting and cultural experiences. The stock's potential for further growth is reinforced by its strong global presence and its position as a disruptor in the travel industry. As consumer trends shift, especially among younger generations, the "sharing economy" model that Airbnb spearheaded will likely continue to gain traction. In particular, regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America show promising user growth for accommodation-sharing platforms. Conclusion While Airbnb’s stock has been volatile, With solid cash flow, a robust global network of hosts, and initiatives aimed at unlocking additional value, Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) is positioned to benefit from both macroeconomic trends and internal strategies. Investors should closely monitor key developments, including potential interest rate changes and the success of Airbnb’s diversification efforts, to gauge the stock’s future trajectory.
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by DEXWireNews
2
$ABNB Doomed: Stock to $50 (-50%) NASDAQ:ABNB Doomed: Stock to $50 (-50%) Occasionally in your career, you get a really clear signal. The technicals, fundamentals, and narrative all line up perfectly. I dislike this company, its business model, and the fact that it enables even more Boomers and private money to take family homes off the market. The hosts are adversarial, controlling, and almost certainly spying on you. Airbnb can only thrive under the halcyon conditions of low interest rates, easy money, and consumers with disposable income. None of this is true, or likely to be true in the coming 24 months. Americans are declaring bankruptcy at record levels, real wages haven't been lower in a lifetime, and inflation has reduced vacations and luxuries to a trip to McDonald’s. Not joking—a recent headline declared that nearly 80% of Americans consider McDonald's a luxury. Many hosts are overburdened and overleveraged with mostly vacant properties. Unsurprisingly, hosts' profitability is sinking, and as soon as we see home prices or consumer sentiment start to shake, many of these owners are going to sell. This will fuel a spiraling doom-loop, driving the stock down to as low as $50 by next summer. The trade: Rejection at the lower highs of '22 and '24 (in yellow) has set up the rising wedge we just broke down from. In the same way rejection at $200 in '22 saw a -60% move, I believe rejection at $170 this year has set us up for another leg down in a precipitous drop. Short from $125 to about $65. If you're not already bearish and short, look out for a bounce and gap fill to $120ish, before brutal rejection below $100. Get some popcorn; it’s going to be wild.
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by dawsonMoonshot
7
Airbnb (ABNB): Bleak Outlook or Potential Turnaround? 🏠Airbnb (ABNB): NASDAQ:ABNB Airbnb's outlook appears quite bleak at a glance. We've experienced a break in the downtrend, and since January 2023, there has been an uptrend. However, we anticipate this might not last long as the complete cycle has not yet concluded. Since the IPO, the price initially surged to $220, then fell to $82. We now expect a rise towards a Y-Wave, or Wave II, hitting between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels, equating to a range between $167 and $190. Following this, we predict Wave III will drop well below Wave 1's low of $82, potentially reaching around $30. It's important to note this is a multi-year scenario that won't unfold overnight. Still, it's crucial to be aware of the long-term perspective. Should the price exceed the 78.6% mark, or $190, our scenario would be invalidated, indicating that the bottom was indeed found at $82.40. Until such a development, we anticipate a declining trend for Airbnb.
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
Airbnb (ABNB): Time to Short!I love Airbnb for vacations but this chart really isn't looking so good... It is the only stock we are currently looking to short. Airbnb has consistently shown lower prices since its inception, despite a recent period of higher highs since hitting a low of $82. We remain confident in the continued downward trend. The movements from point A to B and B to C align well with Fibonacci extension and retracement levels. The retracement for Wave (2) is particularly notable at the 61.8% level. We believe we are currently within Wave (3). We want to time the short entry based on anticipated Elliott wave counts. We anticipate a further decline in the short term, followed by a potential rise in the coming weeks. We plan to place our short position during this anticipated rise in Wave 2. We will continue to monitor the price action closely and provide a detailed update with exact entry and exit points once we are ready to place the short position.
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
Air BNB back to 114 after earnings ? Some analysts express bearish views on Airbnb, but these assessments might be misguided according to Bernstein. Key points of bearish sentiment include: Airbnb’s room nights have grown by only 8% on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since 2019. The company has relied on price increases (9% per year) rather than volume growth. Airbnb’s average prices are 40% higher today compared to 2019, leading some to believe it has lost its edge as a budget-friendly hotel alternative. Booking.com, a competitor offering both hotels and short-term rentals, has narrowed the room night growth gap against Airbnb.
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Airbnb's Bold Fee Move and the Road to Global ExpansionNavigating New Horizons: Airbnb (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ABNB ) has once again captured investor attention with a strategic move that sent its shares soaring 5%. The announcement to increase fees for cross-currency bookings is not just a financial adjustment but a bold step towards unlocking the vast potential of international markets. We'll explore the implications of Airbnb's fee hike, the broader international expansion strategy, and the market's nuanced response. Unlocking the Global Opportunity: The 5% surge in Airbnb's ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) stock following the revelation of increased fees for cross-currency bookings speaks volumes about investor sentiment. While the additional charge of up to 2% might seem like a modest adjustment, the real story lies in Airbnb's visionary approach to tap into the immense potential of international markets. During the Q3'2023 earnings call, Airbnb's management emphasized a 17% growth in cross-border nights booked, showcasing the company's traction in global travel. The letter to shareholders highlighted the recovery of the business in the Asia Pacific region, where gross nights grew 23% in Q3 2023 compared to Q3 2019. Notably, China's outbound travel surged by over 100%, underlining the effectiveness of Airbnb's strategies in a key market. Smaller Asia Pacific markets, including Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Indonesia, experienced impressive year-over-year growth above 30% for gross nights booked. Market Perception and Volatility Analysis: Amidst the excitement, it's crucial to interpret the market's response to Airbnb's ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) fee adjustment in the context of the company's historical stock volatility. With 16 significant moves greater than 5% in the past year, today's 5% surge indicates that the market perceives the news as impactful but not transformative to the fundamental outlook of the business. Reflecting on the past year, the most notable move occurred nine months ago when the stock dropped 10.6% following a mixed quarterly report. While Airbnb ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) beat analysts' expectations in gross bookings, revenue, earnings per share (EPS), and free cash flow estimates, concerns arose with weaker guidance for key metrics in the subsequent quarter. The dip was attributed to changes in the expected timing of marketing spend relative to the prior year, coupled with a projection of a similar EBITDA margin for 2023 compared to 2022. Year-to-Date Performance and Investor Returns: As of now, Airbnb ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) is up 11.7% since the beginning of the year, trading at $150.09 per share—close to its 52-week high of $153.33 from July 2023. Conclusion: As Airbnb ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) navigates the dynamic currents of the market, its fee adjustment for cross-currency bookings is not just about revenue enhancement but a strategic move to capture the global travel resurgence. Investors are presented with a compelling opportunity as the company solidifies its position in under-penetrated markets, with the Asia Pacific region serving as a testament to its recovery.
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by DEXWireNews
Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) Worth WatchingFor beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. Sometimes these stories can cloud the minds of investors, leading them to invest with their emotions rather than on the merit of good company fundamentals. Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should. Despite being in the age of tech-stock blue-sky investing, many investors still adopt a more traditional strategy; buying shares in profitable companies like Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB). While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it. Airbnb's Improving Profits In the last three years Airbnb's earnings per share took off; so much so that it's a bit disingenuous to use these figures to try and deduce long term estimates. Thus, it makes sense to focus on more recent growth rates, instead. Impressively, Airbnb's EPS catapulted from US$1.98 to US$3.60, over the last year. It's a rarity to see 82% year-on-year growth like that. Top-line growth is a great indicator that growth is sustainable, and combined with a high earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin, it's a great way for a company to maintain a competitive advantage in the market. The music to the ears of Airbnb shareholders is that EBIT margins have grown from 19% to 22% in the last 12 months and revenues are on an upwards trend as well. Both of which are great metrics to check off for potential growth. Are Airbnb Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders? We would not expect to see insiders owning a large percentage of a US$80b company like Airbnb. But thanks to their investment in the company, it's pleasing to see that there are still incentives to align their actions with the shareholders. We note that their impressive stake in the company is worth US$23b. Coming in at 29% of the business, that holding gives insiders a lot of influence, and plenty of reason to generate value for shareholders. Looking very optimistic for investors. While it's always good to see some strong conviction in the company from insiders through heavy investment, it's also important for shareholders to ask if management compensation policies are reasonable. A brief analysis of the CEO compensation suggests they are. The median total compensation for CEOs of companies similar in size to Airbnb, with market caps over US$8.0b, is around US$12m. The Airbnb CEO received total compensation of just US$311k in the year to December 2022. That looks like a modest pay packet, and may hint at a certain respect for the interests of shareholders. CEO remuneration levels are not the most important metric for investors, but when the pay is modest, that does support enhanced alignment between the CEO and the ordinary shareholders. Generally, arguments can be made that reasonable pay levels attest to good decision-making. Is Airbnb Worth Keeping An Eye On? Airbnb's earnings per share growth have been climbing higher at an appreciable rate. The cherry on top is that insiders own a bucket-load of shares, and the CEO pay seems really quite reasonable. The drastic earnings growth indicates the business is going from strength to strength. Hopefully a trend that continues well into the future. Big growth can make big winners, so the writing on the wall tells us that Airbnb is worth considering carefully. Now, you could try to make up your mind on Airbnb by focusing on just these factors, or you could also consider how its price-to-earnings ratio compares to other companies in its industry.
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by DEXWireNews
Windham Hotels & Resorts - 10:1 Long, Speculative News ResponseMy analysis of Windham Hotels & Resorts follows news of NYC's recent ban of AirBNB, a development which inspired me to discover which publicly traded hotel chain might be best positioned to benefit. Hopefully you will challenge my conclusion and/or my measurements with your tough questions, since this venue is meant to arouse the reverse-engineers and to provoke the thinkers to do what they do best, right? As always, I strive to render these ideas of mine so obviously that their explanation will require no words, but this 10:1 Long trade on the WH chart is highly contextual. Not even a Market Maker can move the price of ABNB as reliably as the State of New York. Although my trading strategy is built on innate Pattern Recognition and a hard-won sympathy for the Market Maker’s Business Model, my tactics - including the beauty of Tradingview and how it makes me look good - are based on identifying the opportunities within VOLUME, VOLATILITY and TREND EXHAUSTION. Generally speaking, what a Speculator does that an Investor or a Trader does not is specifically to take advantage of price inefficiencies caused by government interference (or corruption). A good example would be accumulating toilet paper and/or N95 Masks in 2020 and selling the stock in bulk at high markup before the window of opportunity finally closed. Only a Speculator does that! The details of the chart(s) speak for themselves, however behind the scenes ChatGPT and I determined that MAR, HLT, IHG, AC and WH were the hotel chains with the greatest number of rooms in NYC that might benefit from the AirBNB news. I was surprised to see that both MAR and HLT are at or near All-Time-Highs, but just as quickly ruled them out as candidates for major growth for exactly that reason. In short, without ChatGPT concluded that WH is the best candidate to benefit from what might become a growing trend, but is already law in NYC and will therefore have an effect on prices and practices. If this case interests you, then I invite you to compare the listed tickers and let me know if you agree about WH. Keen observers will see many details in this idea, but how many noticed the ABNB correlation coefficient histograph? If my trade thesis is correct, the polarity should invert, and the tickers will move in opposite directions more often, and for longer. I am preparing a video on prospecting for opportunities during the current Sector Rotation, and Windam Hotels & Resorts might become part of it. First, though, I have a few more ideas to upload as I update other key charts for the final Quarter of 2023. Until then, be liquid !!!
NYSE:WHLong
by TheLeadingIndicator
Airbnb: Almost there 🌴The Airbnb share price is heading increasingly toward our magenta target zone with its magenta wave (ii). After reaching it, we expect a far-reaching rise in the magenta wave (iii), which will extend to around 200. Necessary for our primary scenario here is that the price stays within the support at $103.55. When crossing, the alternative would activate, which we assign a probability of 20%, and the price would have to target the turquoise target zone before a rise
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by MarketIntel
Airbnb stock is now in the second bandAirbnb stock is now in the second band This figure shows the weekly candle chart of Airbnb stock. The graph overlays the recent low points against the golden section. As shown in the figure, Airbnb stock is now in the second band after bottoming out, and it is likely to retreat below the 1.382 position of the golden section in the figure before starting up again! The bullish target for the next wave of Airbnb stocks is around 2.382 on the golden section in the picture!
NASDAQ:ABNB
by Think_More