Boeing Capable Of Major Cliff Drop. Back to $90 Easy...Boeing could play out of this descending triangle to the downside, in doing so, I would expect a target of $90. We can figure such if the Macro climate keeps going in a recession as I expect.
Airlines
UNITED AIRLINES; Ready for Take Off or Have We Not Even Landed?✨ We provide charts every day ✨
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Good morning, this is your captain speaking 👨✈️, looks like United Airlines (UAL) may be in for turbulence depending on the reaction at support here. Today we are looking to see if UAL is going to retain its short term uptrend, giving us a smooth landing, or if we are going to be looking at a double bottom or lower.
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1. Fractal Trend is showing a downtrend (Red background color) for UAL on the hourly chart.
2. Breakaway Scalper is currently neutral (Grey bar color), so we have no trade.
3. With this strategy we enter long ONLY when Fractal Trend shows a Green background and Breakaway Scalper shows a Green bar color. We enter short on opposite conditions (Red on Red) and otherwise want to be in cash.
4. While there is still a question if airlines in general are bottoming or are going to see more downside (many airline charts look like this, as does the airline ETF JETS), for now we are still holding support as illustrated on the chart.
5. If supports holds, we will be looking for reactions at R1 and R2 resistance. After that we have the top of the current price structure at R3 and then otherwise bearish order blocks at R4 - R6 which were formed on the way down.
6. Support levels below include the bullish order blocks at S1 - S3.
7. It is likely the fate of the airlines is tied overall to the market's reaction to the state of COVID and the economy. Do we reopen and start getting back to normal? That is of course bullish for airlines. Do we try to come out of hiding only to see our shadow and then find ourselves with weeks more of lockdown? In that case there could be a chance airlines haven't even landed yet.
SPX trend line breach may signal breakdown pointIf you've been following my previous thread, you know that I've been watching the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA as possible reversal levels for this rally in the S&P 500. We eventually pushed past the 50-day (green curve), but yesterday we got rejected from a test of the 200-day (dark blue curve), and now we've violated the upward trend line (light blue line) that SPX has formed on its hourly chart over the last month. (In addition to technical resistance from the 200-day EMA, we also hit a fib retracement level and a couple important psychological resistance levels on the fundamental side-- 20-22.5 forward P/E, market cap 140% of GDP-- so there are lots of reasons to reverse from here).
In my past experience with trend line breakdowns, the price often moves back above the trend line at least one more time, and then it either holds there or reconfirms the breakdown. That's already happened, as you can see on the zoomed-in chart:
It's possible that we will move above the trend line again and retest the 200-day EMA before breaking decisively below the trend line, but personally I have already purchased puts.
In terms of fundamentals, the overall news environment is starting to shift in a more negative direction, I think.
Over the past month, the market has been driven by government stimulus, decent tech earnings, and optimism around reopening. It has mostly shrugged off bad news such 30 million job losses, a spate of corporate bankruptcies, and a flood of worse-than-expected 1Q economic data.
Now, however, we're turning our attention to Q2. Q1 GDP fell only 4.8%, whereas Q2 GDP is forecast to fall 27.7%. The earnings numbers for Q2 are going to hurt a lot more than those for Q1, especially due to companies' high borrowing costs. Analysts are also predicting another rash of bankruptcies and debt offerings in May. Cities and states may announce new taxes to offset budget shortfalls.
Meanwhile, the Fed is out of interest rate ammunition and slowing its balance sheet expansion. There's a bailout for oil likely coming in the next few days, and possibly an infrastructure bill in the longer-term pipeline, but federal stimulus is slowing down as the economy reopens.
And if China's experience is anything to go by, reopening will be slow, with lots of logistical bottlenecks and false starts. Demand will stay weak because consumers are out of cash. Some states will reopen too early and have to go back into quarantine within a few weeks. I think we will retest the March low in coming months as investors realize the scale of the economic damage and that it's not a temporary thing.
Big tech, I think will continue to outperform due to persistent fear of Covid-19. Airlines and cruise lines will continue to struggle, with some likely filing for bankruptcy in the coming year. Banks will remain hard-hit and highly risky due to continued default risk.
JCP "Long"Im expecting a bounce to $1 or so.. there is many reasons like investors that might want to rush into this opportunity at this great price!
JCPenny is so cheap it doesn't make sense to ignore this chance.. it is likely that JCPenny will go bankrupt in the future.. but thats more than a couple months away.. they are asking for a bailout which could result in a bullish short term sentiment making it pump big :)
I think this is a great opportunity and should just set a stop loss at .20 to .21
Southwest Airlines Could Break Big - Swing Only Literally Southwest could break really big here. Little expensive, but not a bad short term gain. 8-10% possibly.
JETS propelled past channelJETS is breaking a bear triangle formation channel, with very high volume as seen in chart.
In the chart you can see the next resistance drawn. Which are the 200 and 50 simple moving average.
OBV has been trending higher, making higher lows, and is following the channel drawn.
JETS is an ETF holding airline stocks, its portfolio top 4 holdings and % weight are:
LUV (13.66%) - Southwest
AAL (12.49%) - American
DAL (11.00%) - Delta
UAL (10.52%) - United
Total= 47.47%
AAL "Long" I had a long from 10.02 but closed it at 10.80.. then I noticed AAL broke some resistances and also the channel it was sitting on which made me buy some calls for tomorrow! American Airlines earning date is on April 30 which is probably when the big shorts will come in..
Airlines have been one of the worst-performing stocks lately while many other companies that are closed have still pumped.. maybe its time AAL shines for a couple of days!
Resistance lines are shown, we ideally wanna keep 11.14 holding if we are going to shoot for 12+ tomorrow.. maybe FOMO will get to people who knows..
Good Luck!
Top 3 Stocks NOW 🚀| April 2020Top 3 Stocks NOW 🚀| April 2020
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Jet Blue (JBLU): Drastic price movement imminent?Looks like a descending triangle forming or at the least, a symmetrical triangle.
If Descending Triangle:
- There will be rapid price drop.
If Symmetrical:
- In a vacuum, the price would experience a significant movement (up OR down). All things considered, it'll be interesting to see how fast this pops (implodes).
I entered a straddle play at $8 Jun 19. Now watch it go sideways instead LOL.
Let me know what you think of this idea.
$CPA can fall in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger and cargo services.
The company said on Monday it may not have enough liquidity to survive the coronavirus crisis despite cutting costs, becoming the second major Latin American airline to suggest that it may cease to exist due to the outbreak — finance.yahoo.com
The demand for shares of the company looks lower than the supply.
This and other conditions can cause a fall in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a short position from $41,08;
stop-loss — $43,32.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
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Southwest Airlines; Are the Bulls Ready to LUV this Stock?✨ We provide charts every day ✨
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Hey gang! Let's take a look at Southwest Airlines to see if it can pull out of this tailspin. The LUV chart looks like hot trash on a southwest sidewalk right now, but we are slamming up against some major support, which might give this dead cat wings.
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1. Fractal Trend is showing a downtrend (Red background color) for LUV on the daily chart.
2. With this setup, we want to take short positions when Fractal Trend signals a downtrend AND then Breakaway Scalper signals a short entry in the downtrend by showing a Red bar color.
3. You see from the above logic that LUV has been a great short during COVID. That said, it seems unlikely this stock will just go down forever, so we want to look for support and a reason to shed our short bias.
4. The first level to watch is the bullish orderblock at S1. S1 support is one of the last major supports before we hit the 2010 - 2013 range at S3. So it is one of those situations where it's "either we bounce here, or it's a long way down).
5. If this short signal does let up, and if the uptrend can continue at some point, we will be looking for a reaction at the bearish order blocks at R1 and R2 resistance.
Lufthansa contrarian long - for the braveLufthansa trading near long term base around 7 to 8 EUR. Expect a short term rebound after bailout is approved (as it will be) followed by a long and difficult recovery. Position small long if & holds. No miracles about to happen in this battered sector but lower competition going forward and higher fares plus lower fuel prices will help a lot.
Flights seem also to be leveling off : www.flightradar24.com
China Southern Airlines Company $ZNHDespite Airlines company in US, #ChineseAirlines, #ZH is doing well and holding above RSI 50 and hit the 50SMA yesterday. Yesterday's volume is just above the average.
Delta Airline $DAL#DeltaAirlines holded above the trendline and still struggling to keep its position.
DAL at 2007 levels...Delta Airlines ( $DAL ) really doesn't seem to have a bid.
Waiting for the post-crisis breakdown.
The 4 Major Airlines - OpinionsAll,
Most of my opinions are in the text. Just think Delta is actually the most capable to take off without running into trouble right off the bat. Not saying they are the best company by any means. I am just waiting until I actually hear one of the airlines come up with a plan or have a decent earnings. I would pay attention to the airline with the best operational cash flow. Meaning their earnings might be bad, but they still had net operational cash flow to keep them alive.
Delta Ready for Takeoff (if earnings says so)All,
I think if you look at the All Time chart and work backwards in time you will see Delta is at a great take off spot. IF tomorrow goes bad + bad earnings you could see a huge sell off downwards. Either way I think a big change in Delta upwards or downwards is about to happen. Just a matter of how you play it.
#1 make sure pending tomorrow breaks this trend line and opens up positive say 3 hours I would maybe get in and set your trailing stop loss etc
DAL 1w to 6w trading outlookNYSE:DAL
This chart represents my 1w to 6w trading outlook on DAL.
Background: The unprecedented turmoil in which global airline industry found itself is yet to clear up and show signs of resolution, despite the fact that the covid-19 curve is somewhat flattening, this does not means that we are close to be back on track with the global economy's recovery. We are yet to truly and fully comprehend and measure the long term effects of covid-19 pandemic and its collateral damage to the global economy. As a result - entire industries will be reshaped and restructured and global recovery will potentially take years to get to the pre-pandemic levels of Dec 2019. Until there will be developed vaccine/herd vaccine - there will quite a lot sensitivity and edginess in the markets. CL1 (oil) broke the recent support despite the cut in production from last week which is not a bullish sign for the global economy. The market is on drugs and is not acting rationally (fed aggressively pumping money into the economy via intra-venous injections) and there likely will be bad withdrawal symptoms for the markets.
Potential catalyst this week - Q1 earnings call (expected on Apr 22nd).
This upcoming week we approaching Q1/20 earnings call (which apparently has been delayed for a couple of weeks and for good reasons).
It is obvious that Q1/20 earnings will be in red for the first time in over a decade. Since the beginning of the pandemic he company burnt through the vast majority of its cash and took on more debt and govt "relief". About 90% of its scheduled flights (=revenue) are cancelled and it is unclear when the company will return to fly at its full capacity if ever. What I will be paying close attention to is company's guidance and outlook for the rest of the year. Anything has to do with uncertainty and less-than-expected recovery outlook will potentially cause a sell-off and brake the current short-term support line (blue on the chart). As of today @24$ DAL is trading way over it's current market capitalization (under pandemic conditions and taking into account that recovery might take years) there's a lot of room towards the bottom.
Technicals - on the above chart you see near-term green support line and near-term red resistance line which outline the range in which the stock was trading in recent weeks since the outbreak of the pandemic in the US. In the last few weeks there was formed a support tine (blue line on the chart).
At the bottom of the chart you will see the white all time low line above which there are 4 yellow-ish strong historical support and resistance lines which will be relevant in case DAL breaks the short-term blue support line (potentially on the earnings call news next week). If this break happens - I expect the price to fall to 14.95$ area (top yellow historical resistance line) and in coming weeks after - followed by tumbling lower and settling to trade anywhere in the range of the yellow historical lines on the chart. If DAL breaks through and closes above 27.5$ - 28$ red resistance - sentiment is bullish and we will be looking into resistance line becoming a new support.
There are quite a few good trades that can be constructed with the described above scenario.
Share your thoughts with me.
Thank you for reading and good trading!
BOEING "SHORT" (neutral risk)I see a perfect opportunity to short Boeing, at around $144-150. There is a descending triangle forming, I'm expecting a fall to the 120s.. potentially even lower. Stop loss is set at the resistance line which is $150 (a break which invalidates the descending triangle.)
There is a possibility airline bailouts occurring could ruin this trade. I believe airlines won't open up any time soon and will continue to suffer no matter the bailout. I am expecting the trade to work well.. worth the risk in my opinion (expecting this after hour PUMP to be shorted).
