Airlines
AAL Long GameSpikes in American Airlines have been pretty common over the last the past six months. With sudden spikes to the stock over $18 or within that target price range. As of recently, the stock beat their estimates by $0.25. However, due to COVID-19, the stock will see very neutral trends and even bear trends. In 2019, American Airlines revenue was at $47.7B which was sharply taken away from the pandemic with a revenue of only $17.34B in 2020. As of recently, American Airlines warned employees they should brace for another wave of furloughs. The Center for Disease Control recently updated their guidelines when people are using public transportation to wear the appropriate attire to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
While the public's use of airlines has decreased over the past year people are still using the airline. Currently, it is hard to determine if the updated regulations on people traveling will improve revenue and make travelers feel safer when they travel.
This should not scare the buyers or the bulls away.
Will it take some time for NASDAQ:AAL to recover? Yes, it will take close to a year if not longer to recover. Despite a long recovery time the stock is still undervalued.
It's hard to estimate when there will the "pre-COVID" stock price but eventually the company can get there.
Long will be the best strategic outcome for this stock because of its necessity to people who travel for work or vacations. While it looks like there are no future plans of government action to be taken on airlines and transportation (again) it should not be surprising. Especially, if such action were to be taken up late spring/early summer. For the time being, it is quite frankly just a long waiting game.
References:
"American Airline Jobs." (Reuters). www.reuters.com
"Requires Face Masks." Center for Disease Control. www.cdc.gov
LUFTHANSA Swing Stock Pick! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
LHA is a german airline giant in distress due to covid travel restrictions
However, the company is still great and it is bouncing from the absolute lows!
So the reversal has already begun and there are 3 targets on its way UP!
Also, on the fundamental side, it is the too big to fail case
Which means the german Government will certainly Bail this company out
If the going gets hard
So I am in and I suggest you buy some as well!
SWING BUY!
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Last Boarding CallAs the vaccines roll out and the world over comes the pandemic, travel will be popular among many that have been unable to for the past year.
While still heavily oversold (75% below the all time high in 2018) flight centre remains in a good position to bounce back.
Currently in a rising wedge, price is situated on support and is likely to take off.
AWA's Travel Survey (2020)
69% of Australians hope to travel within the first six months of restrictions being lifted
50% are keen to travel for two weeks or more on their next holiday
74% said they would be comfortable spending just as much on their next holiday as they did pre COVID-19
Easyjet to continue recoveryThis has retraced nicely to 0.5 Fibonacci after testing the previous high. It has since risen and found support at 0.382 Fib as well and is looking good to continue to rise now. I expect this to test the high again and create a new high at -0.27 Fib which would equal a price of 1088.
American Airlines, is 2021 a good year to invest? American Airline (AAL) has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as have all the other airlines, which has subsequently destroyed the demand for air travel as people were forced into lockdown. AAL stock went from $29.32 high in February down to $8.23 low in May. Since then, the price has been fluctuating, bouncing up only slightly to the current level of $15.68. This stock is untouchable for investors at the moment, despite the progress being made with the vaccine and promises that demand will return to sustainable levels during summer 2021. The oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, sold his stock in AAL in Spring in 2020. Despite coining the phrase ‘Be greedy, when the others are fearful’, the famous long-term investor has changed his views regarding the future of the airlines.
But is 2021 a better year to buy this stock?
Financial Factors
First, let us look at the company’s financials. American Airlines, which has a $9.55 billion market cap, had troubles even before the pandemic. While operating around 700 flights per day into 50 different countries, the company already had revenues falling annually by 9%. According to the Wall Street Journal, as additional travel restrictions were put during summer, AAL’s third-quarter revenue plummeted by 73% year-on-year, reporting $2.4 billion in net losses. Despite some people still travelling during the Christmas period, the demand level is nowhere near enough and the airline continues to burn through cash daily to stay afloat. Based on the projection of the International Air Transport Association, total losses for the airline industry will be almost $40 billion in 2021 and a rebound in air travel demand will only be in 2024. The projections from the Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs put the stock price in the range of $15-$20, advising to stay away from investing more until the turnaround in the pandemic.
Technical Analysis
Based on the chart analysis of AAL, price action broke a strong support level of $25 during the start of the pandemic, this level will now act as a strong resistance and will take significant buying pressure to overcome. Price has been below the 200SMA since April 2018 and 50SMA crossed below the 200SMA, known as the Death Cross, in December 2018, further signalling the downtrend’s strength. A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed once the stock hit the low of $8.23, a warning of potential continuation lower in the coming months. The lowest level for this stock was after the 2008 crash at $1.42, so there is plenty of room to go lower. Brokerage firms report increased buying of airline stocks since they became cheap enough to buy and hold for the long-term, stopping AAL from plunging lower so far. But the situation may change drastically if air travel remains restricted.
So, should I invest now?
The eyes of investors are on the spring and summer season. Reports from the World Health Organization suggest that lockdowns will ease once warm weather arrives in March and April. Further developments of the vaccine and its distribution bring hope to see air travel demand improve. As American Airlines announced a strategic alliance with JetBlue on January 12, investors are more optimistic that such measures will keep the stock from collapsing.
For an average investor with limited capital investing in this stock right now is dangerous as the pandemic continues to batter air travel, Until the stock finds a way to close at least above $25, there is a real danger of falling into a bull trap. Best to wait until Spring to evaluate potential entry into this stock. Big banks and Hedge Funds will, of course, continue to hold AAL stock long-haul, because they can afford it. But should there be another hit in the USA and worsening conditions of the pandemic, they will immediately sell it.
Important to remember, that this company is protected by the US government is unlikely to sink completely. Additional bailouts will be ready if needed. We shall know more after Biden’s inauguration on January 20 and see how his administration plans to support the airline's industry.
If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments!
Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
Is United Airlines Taxiing for Takeoff?United Airlines has gone almost nowhere for two months. But now the chart may be lining up for a rally as earnings approach.
UAL exploded higher on November 9 when Pfizer’s vaccine news hit. It continued upward the following month before retreating in late December.
Since then, the airline has stabilized between $42 and $44. It’s also holding support at its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
The 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) was resistance during that time -- until the last two sessions when UAL closed above it. That could signal the trend is turning bullish again.
Also notice the rounded bottom between December 21 and this week.
Finally, UAL’s Bollinger Band Width is the narrowest since late October. Earnings are next Thursday afternoon. Can prices stay in this super tight range before the news, or will buyers sneak in early?
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WHAT HAPPEND WITH THE PRICE OF ? ( TUI1 ) 3 weeks ago I uploaded a trading idea of TUI1 discussing the likelihood of a potential breakout.
First, I would like to give out my apologies, I have not shared enough information involving this trade which could have led to a lot of confusion.
What really happend
On the 7'th of January TUI Publicly announced the agreement and approval of a capital restructuring plan,
Including the dilution of 508,978,534 new shares among existing shareholders,
offering 25 new shares for every 29 existing ones at 1.07 euros each.
With this share dilution, TUI was able to raise over 500 million Euros resetting the price from 4.65 to 3.32 a share.
Everybody who held TUI at the time of the share dilution has the ability to sign up until the 20th of january.
The New Shares will be distributed on the 29th of January.
I hope this clarifies the whole situation around TUI,
Wish yall an amazing start of 2021
And like to see you again
I am boarding the plane #stocksDelta has been hovering above its range for over a month now and I am looking for take into earnings. Assuming the breakout/trend to the upside will continue, I am hoping earnings will provide a catalyst for the stock to head toward 45. I don't think the numbers themselves will be good but I am hoping the have positive guidance about people traveling post the vaccine.
AAL - Still Valueable StockFalling stock from 2018 and COVID-19 push it more and for many Analyst it's under-performing stock but it should have a fair value and now it's below from real value. After Vaccine race it will rise for some time.
The Company's primary business activity is the operation of a network air carrier, providing scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo.
It's not just one carrier and travel demand will be high in 2021.
Time to take flight? #stocksThe one sector that has continue to lag is the airlines but that may be starting to change. We have consolidated near the high end of the range (rectangle)for over a month and it appears the sector wants to breakout. If we can clear the downtrend line and hold the 21.40 recent lows then the sector could get back some of the enormous Covid losses. Vaccines and broader reopening's should only be a tailwind.
AAL Retracement into Long?AAL broke out nicely from the previous resistance (now support) level on a long bullish run. Price has retraced and formed a descending triangle.
Lots of confluence to support a long here. With a TP a the previous high, just pre-gap. My entry at this stage would give me a 72% gain at a Risk to Reward of 7 to 1.
A trade with this R:R ratio means that you could have 6 losing trades in a row, and still make money. These are the kinds of quality trades you should be taking.
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