American Airlines | AAL | Long at $14.00Similar to my cruise line picks, I anticipate airlines to quite literally "take off" in the coming years as interest rates are lowered and people travel more. These two industries never quite recovered from the pandemic, but their time to do so is "likely" fast approaching.
American Airlines NASDAQ:AAL has been consolidating near my selected long-term simple moving average (SMA) for several years. Many retail investors have been beaten up by the sudden up and (especially) down price movements, but this is where larger investors gather their shares. The fact NASDAQ:AAL did not make a new low in August 2024 is a hopeful sign from a technical analysis perspective. While the price may dip to close out the new lower price gaps, I think we are nearing the "take off" zone which will be a massive break through the long-term SMA. A confirmation that something bigger is brewing would be a price move into the $15s, dip down to the $12s, and the larger move up. Regardless of trying to predict bottoms, NASDAQ:AAL is in a personal buy zone at $14.00.
Target #1 = $15.25
Target #2 = $16.55
Target #3 = $18.40
Target #4 = $27.00 (very long-term outlook...)
Airlinestock
Stock Analysis: DALBig Picture
Price action has been climbing off the lower low of March 7th; currently in sideways consolidation with a series of large bullish engulfing candles.
Price action has run into our 42.71 resistance area. Price needs to break above the Feb 14th high to make a higher high.
As we breakdown the price action layers we see that the price ran into our supply area after a series of two gaps. I would be expecting some retracement back towards the 41.50 - 41.00 based on the psychology of the candles.
38.68 would be the ideal downside target and that would also close some of the recent gaps; however leaving one open around the 33 area.
Could be setting up for some short positions. Despite the economy opening up and the mass assumption that 'demand' will be of major significance it throws caution to the wind that 'some' may decide to utilize other means of transportation; especially with the continuous rounds of flight delays and cancellations due to staffing shortages, hours of waiting on the phone to speak to someone, inflation continuing to climb, and incomes being tested with everything around them slowly eating into their buying power. This may also cause some families to put off vacations in general to a later time or reduce the duration of travels, etc.
There could be some shorting opportunities on both intraday and swing day outlooks within the ranges above; feel free to annotate your charts
Distance between Price and Moving Averages:
SMA20
11.02%
SMA50
9.91%
SMA200
6.18%
3/6/22 AALAmerican Airlines Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAL )
Sector: Transportation (Airlines)
Market Capitalization: $9.471B
Current Price: $14.59
Breakdown price: $14.70
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $15.40-$17.00
Price Target: $11.20-$10.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 112-116d
Contract of Interest: $AAL 6/17/22 15p
Trade price as of publish date: $2.26/contract
9/26/21 JETSU.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS)
Sector: Transportation, Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds (Airlines)
Current Price: $24.29
Breakout price trigger: $24.25 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $24.25-23.25
Price Target: $25.00-$25.50 (1st), $27.00-$27.80 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-23d (1st), 116-124d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $JETS 10/15/21 24c, $JETS 1/21/21 27c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.85/cnt, $0.78/cnt
BA $240 moving to in short term BA Current Price $221 Price Target $240
Option - $220c 9/10 ($568,1.7% till breakeven)
After reporting their first profitable quarter in 6 quarters I believe now is the time to add some BA to your portfolio. FDA approval for COVID vaccines coming in just last week shouldact as a tailwind for the travel sector and especially Boeing. In June, Boeing booked defense contracts valued at $1.1 billion. The contract flow was carried by orders for the CH-47 Chinook and the AH-64 Apache. Seemingly, July was even better in terms of contract value. There was a fear out there that BA may see a decline in defense spending due to changes in administrations as we went from the trump administration to the Biden Administration but that is simply not taking place, defense contracts have been very strong for the company. Looking at the chart I believe we will trade up to the top line of resistance around $240 over the coming weeks.