EURUSD: Potential Trend Continuation Trade (TCT) I typically do the bulk of my weekly analysis on Monday after the New York close, but because last week was spent focusing on the educational side of the business, I wanted to get an early start and get back in tune with the markets.
Looking at a potential trend continuation trade here on the EURUSD. Obviously we have a good amount of time before (if) we get to our Killzone, but as we mentioned during last weeks event. When possible we want to go through our I.P.D.E. process as soon as possible and try to remain a step ahead of the markets (prediction wise).
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst & Trading Coach
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Trading Recap Week 45: "What Will Be Different?"
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NZDUSD: Bullish Gartley with TCT Outlook This NZDUSD trade is something that I've been keeping tabs on for the past few weeks. In fact by this point I think my Live Trading Room & Sydnicate members are probably sick of me mentioning it. But during yesterday's FOMC events price action finally pushed down into the area that I was willing to buy at. Although i didn't get filled on the initial push (due to FOMC trading rules) I did get filled over the London session & currently have a long position.
On the 4 hour chart this is simple an advanced pattern trade, but if you were to take a look out on the higher timeframes you'll see that this is also a trend continuation play as well with a lot of legroom to the bullish side.
I just finished recording my Weekend Review video & this week's topic was "Building A Rules Based Trading Strategy" (Link below). The video reminded me of this trade because although I use a simple example of a TCT trading strategy in the video, advanced patterns can also be used as reasons for entries as well.
I'm a big fan of combining the two, however you have to be very care of when to shoot for extended targets & when not to or else you may end up sabotaging your system by accident. let me know what you think of the video guys!
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Akil Stokes
EURJPY: Bullish Bat Pattern With Better EntryWanted to share with you one of the trades I got involved in after yesterday’s ECB reaction. It’s a bullish bat pattern on the EURJPY which is now offering a slightly better entry. Just my opinion of course but I think the best place for stops is beneath the 1.3300 even handled psychological number. Yes it opens you up to a little more risk, but as we saw with last weeks $EURUSD trade (Which smashed through second targets yesterday) sometimes having a little extra protection makes it worth it. Your call of course follow your rules
Also if you missed it yesterday check out my latest Trading Video over at youtube. www.youtube.com The reaction to this week’s video has been MASSIVE as I go on a great rant about the 3 Steps to changing your trading future as well as a breakdown of a simple pattern trade on the GBPUSD.
I’m trying to reach 15,000 subscribers by 2016 so it would be a BIG help if you became a subscriber or at least shared the word with your trading buddies. Of course that’s only if you like the content.
Have a good weekend traders and Syndicate members I’m going to try and give you guys a quick video this morning before heading out of town.
PLAN YOUR TRADE, & TRADE YOUR PLAN
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD 1 Hour: 3 Advanced Patterns Setting Up/ Ideas for a VideoComing off a massive week in the Syndicate it’s somewhat refreshing to have only taken a single trade this week. Well two if you count the AUDUSD Bull bat that just filled a few hours ago (60min). Either way a slow week often means that there are a lot of potential patterns going through there setup legs and the EURUSD is a prime example.
Three potential patterns on this pair, on this time frame. A potential Bullish Gartley, a Bearish Gartley, and a Bearish Cypher. Not much on the news front until tomorrows ECB Press Conference and our normal Thursday Unemployment Claims, so we’ll see how things pan out.
Also, as many of you know I put out a weekly trading video on my youtube page every Thursday. www.youtube.com
Well this week I’m a little short on ideas, so if you have something that you’d like to be discussed do me a favor and leave your comment under this video and I’ll go through them before tomorrow’s recording starts. Good luck in the markets traders and remember…
PLAN YOUR TRADE, & TRADE YOUR PLAN
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: What We've Had & What We Have NextAs mentioned in this week’s video (link below), the Euro has been a great pair for me over the past month or so and has helped me greatly in finally breaking my September Curse. As price action breaks to the upside I’m preparing for my next short in the form of a potential bearish Bat Pattern.
The patterns prior to the bat setup are all described in the video below along with a discussion about trading competitions, a 270% return in 3 months, a walkthrough of my audusd trade from earlier in the week (from thought process to completion) and a lot more. Please let me know what you think.
Forex Trading: “A Little Bit of Everything Related to trading” www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Gartley & Trading Week #40 RecapI don’t do any active trading on Monday’s but I do make my way around my portfolio to see if there are any advanced patterns that need orders set for the day.
Here on the EURUSD we have a potential bullish Gartley pattern coming back into a structure zone that I would like for a buying opportunity whether it was a pattern or not.
Trading Recap Week #40 “the Curse Is Over” tradeempowered.com
Akil Stokes
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EURAUD: When to use the 2618 Strategy/Live Q&A TodayLast night I shot out a video to some traders looking at this opportunity to take a short on EURAUD. The trading idea was based off of a read of price action and a prediction of a continuation of the short-term trend. The idea was to wait for price action to reach that level of resistance and see if we could get some type of confirmation of a hold. (Double Top).
As you can see we got the double top (along with bearish divergence) and the market decided to roll over. Well the question is, for a trader like myself who is fast asleep during the London open, how do I get involved? You know what you need in order to take the trade however you don’t want to wake up every hour stalking it….so what do you do?
Well this is when the 2618 trading technique comes in handy. No it won’t replace the double top entry that you wanted, however it does provide another opportunity to get involved.
Now I’m not looking to get involved in this trade today because it’s Non-Farm Friday and I won’t be actively training. But hopefully this answered a few questions about how and when to use the 2618 strategy. Here’s the link to the free training if you haven’t seen it. tradeempowered.com
Lastly make sure you join me today for my Live Q&A session starting at 8am New York. www.youtube.com As mentioned above, I have no intentions of trading today so I figured we’d hangout and let you guys get to know a little bit about THE MAN, THE MYTH, THE LEGEND!....Oh and myself to hahaha. See you there.
Akil Stokes
EURUSD: Potential Bullish Garltey within the ConsolidationLot’s on my trading radar today gang. In fact out of the 11 pairs in my trading portfolio, I’m either involved or have pending orders on 7 of them. (EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, NZDUSD, EURAUD).
The chart you’re looking at displays a potential bullish Gartley pattern on the EURUSD. This pair has been in consolidation as of late which has been a positive thing for pattern traders, nailing profits on both the previous bullish cypher and bearish bat patterns that were offered. Will this next potential pattern meet the same fate? I hope so, but honestly there is no way to tell. Remember traders we don’t have any control over the markets, they do what they want when they want. The only thing that we can control is ourselves and how well we execute our trading plan.
The green/red boxes on the side will give you an idea of where I’m looking for initial stops and targets. The risk reward on this particular pair is slightly above 1:1 so unless we have a perfect completion, I’m expecting an inverse risk/reward going forward.
If you’re around this Friday I’ll be doing a Live Google Hangout in my trading room. With the Non-Farm Employment release coming I have no intentions of trading so I figured we could all hang out and do a little Question & Answer. If you’re interested just head over and subscribe to my youtube channel. It will be THIS FRIDAY at 8am New York Time. www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Potential Bearish Bat Pattern (The Smaller One)Hey traders, there are more than a few opportunities setting up on the EURUSD, this one is still a ways away from me taking it serious, but believe it or not, it's the smallest of the potential opportunities. (The bigger potential patterns are on the 4 hour and Daily charts)
What we have here is a potential bearish pat pattern which would complete at 1.1418. Now it's important that we don't pass up on other trading opportunities because of the potential pattern because there's no reason to be confident in the completion until the "B" leg is broken providing us with a NSH, HHHC.
Just like with the USDJPY trade last week (Minute 2:35 of this Video www.youtube.com ) I'll be looking for a potential structure based trade at the structure level as well.
Hoping you guys have had a great trading week, and cheers to a great weekend.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
XAUUSD: A 2nd Cypher Forming on the 4 HourShared this idea with you yesterday during my Live Trading Room hours, so i didn't have a chance to write an explanation of what I was looking at.
What we had here (in orange) was a bearish Cypher pattern completion. The "D" leg of this Bearish Cypher also happens to be the "C" leg of a potential Bullish Cypher that would complete down at $1,110.97. I got the question the other day about "which pattern occurs most frequently" and my answer was the Cypher pattern mainly because it often comes after the completion of another pattern.
It's been a pretty big week in the markets. I'm looking forward to a final day of "Good Trading" (following my rules) and enjoying a nice weekend. I'm wishing the same to you traders.
Also if you didn't hear it yesterday, make sure you check out my latest trading video where I share a Great A Success Story from a trading friend of mine. Here's the link www.youtube.com the Success Story Starts at minute 10:30
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
USDJPY: A Lot Going On Here So Let Me ExplainEarlier in the week I shared with you my idea for a potential bullish Cypher pattern here on the USDJPY and as you can see price action has yet to reach the “D” completion point. In Tuesday’s Live Trading Room session we were able to capture some profit on a long entry as the market retested the Cypher “B” leg and now price action looks to be retesting that zone once again.
I want to keep this as simple as possible but here’s what I’m looking at going into today’s trading.
1) Another potential long entry at the same level as Tuesday’s trade (orange box). Not only does that represent previous structure support, but we would have a nice harmonic move heading into that level as well. I haven’t drawn in any Fibonacci yet but I would assume some type of confluence too.
2) The potential Cypher pattern completion from earlier in the week and…
3) A potential Bullish Gartley pattern that has now formed as well.
I’ll see if I can record the Live Analysis I do on this pair during this morning’s Live Trading Room session and add it to today’s Youtube video ( www.youtube.com )
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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USDJPY: Potential 1 Hour Back to Back Cypher PatternsI’ll tell you what trader’s, there’s nothing more exciting than a pain free trade and nothing more nerve racking then needing to put entries right back on but in the opposite direction.
That’s the situation that we have here on the USDJPY 1 Hour timeframe. Yesterday we had a bearish Cypher pattern roll over to smash targets (hopefully TGT 2 gets clipped) and now we have to be ready to enter once again but in the opposite direction. (Using a Stop and Reverse is an option but I’d personally rather get my targets off and not take the risk).
Do be a favor, before blindly following me WHICH I HOPE NONE OF YOU ARE DOING, double check your “C” leg to make sure it’s valid. As well all know (or know now) there’s no central market in Forex so price quotes will be different depending on your broker. That means for some of you it will be valid and for others it won’t. Hence why you always hear traders say “Trade What YOU See”
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Cypher Pattern & Why I'm Waiting It's a busy Monday in the Markets as we're seeing a lot of corrections from last week's major news event. I've got a lot on my radar including potential longs on GBPJPY & AUDUSD. As well as a few potential shorts on GBPJPY & USDJPY. In fact the USDJPY may be filled already on a bearish Cypher .
Speaking of Cyphers we have a potential bullish Cypher here on the EURUSD down at 1.1165. Now because the risk is beyond my acceptable levels (100pips) I won't be able to enter aggressively at the D completion, rather I'll have to wait until I get an alternate reason inside the Kill Zone. in the future I'll be able to simple move my entries down to a level that will put me within that 100pips zone however I do have "rules" about when I can change "rules" so that can't happen until the end of the quarter.
There looks to be lots of movement in the market which means lots of opportunities, so i'm excited about the week ahead. I'm also excited about some testing that I'll be doing trying to "break" a level III system to make sure all of the bugs are out. Admit it you'd be excited to if someone have you a sledge hammer and said "swing away"
Good luck out there traders and thanks for all of the kind comments from this past week's Weekend Review video. The speech that Jason Stapleton gave was great and hopefully it had an affect on your trading mindset! (Here's the link www.youtube.com)
Akil Stokes
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USDCAD: potential Bullish Bat (4 Hour Chart)Two trades on my radar this morning a potential bullish gartley pattern on the USDJPY & a potential bullish bat pattern shown here on the USDCAD. I wanted to share this one with you because it does a better job of following up on this week’s theme of combining patterns with the overall ebbs & flows of price action.
If you remember, yesterday’s video covered that same topic as we walked through the EURJPY combining both structure analysis and advanced patterns. (“Looking Over A Forex Trader’s Shoulders” tradeempowered.com )
Hope you guys stayed safe out there yesterday. I cancelled all three of my positions going into the rate statement just to remove all exposure. In hindsight I would have benefited greatly from leaving them on but it was 100% the correct move for me to get out. Although trading is technically a gamble, it’s a gamble I only want to take when I feel that I have the edge.
Akil Stokes
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EURJPY: Walking Your Through A Trade Setup (Video)With the FOMC Statement/ Interest Rate decision coming later today, I have no intentions of having any exposure in the market. If you're like me and plan on sitting on your hands until the dust has settled then feel free to kill some time by watching my latest Forex Weekend Review video.
It's a little on the long side but in this week's video I walk you through how i breakdown a potential trading setup as well as share with you my thought process as the trade progresses. I also share with you a very powerful speech by Jason Stapleton talking about "the Reality of Trading Performance" and what the reality of ta trading equity curve looks like as well as some insight into "Why we started the Syndicate program"
"FOREX TRADING: Looking Over A Trader's Shoulders" www.youtube.com
I hope you guys can kill some time before the 2pm (NY) news event and PLEASE be careful out there. Don't try and get cute, it's really nothing but a gamble...and not the educated ones that we like to involve ourselves in.
USDJPY: Trading with Price Action & Fibonacci Tools (VIDEO)Hey traders, sorry for being away all week but I needed to get away from some of the negativity that exist on these social sites and concentrate fully on what matters most TRADING. The chart above is of a trade we took on the USDJPY this week using nothing more than the fundamental skills of reading a price chart and using the Fibonacci ratio tools.
Obviously explaining the trade would mean numerous paragraphs so to make things easier, I just recorded a video. Enjoy and hopefully I’ll be back on tradingview next week. We’ll see, I love sharing ideas with you guys and helping you out but I must admit, being away has been refreshing.
FOREX TRADING USING PRICE ACTION & FIBONACCI RATIOS VIDEO
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Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
EURUSD: Bearish Gartley In A Bearish Market (w/Video Link)Short & simple today (no pun intended). We have a potential bearish Gartley pattern setting up on a market that has been in a strong bearish trend. Perfect chance for those of you who aren’t trend continuation traders, to hop on a TCT type of move using advanced patterns.
With Jason Stapleton out of town today, I’ll be running this morning War Room meeting, running through what trades are on my radar for the day. Here’s the link where you can watch it live. www.youtube.com See you there!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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GBPUSD: As We Approach A Trend Rotation, Will the Bulls Protect?Usually I share EURUSD ideas with you guys, but I wanted to switch it up and look at something different since the Euro is still playing out yesterday’s prediction. (By the way, if you want to see a breakdown that we’ve been doing on it over the past few days in my live trading room check out this video www.youtube.com) There’s also a special cameo in the video ;-)
GBPUSD is at an interesting level as we’re currently at the top end of what to me is a major level of support. If you look at the ebbs and flows on the daily chart (above) you’ll see that we’re approaching the previous outside return (retracement) and a violation of this level would cause a rotation in trend. For that reason I expect the bulls to be on the defensive fighting hard not to give up that area.
Technically this is an at market buy right now as we’ve double bottomed at the zone, due to the retest of structure on the peak, I’d like to see a push lower into the 1.5350’s level reducing my potential risk as well.
Depending on if/how this completes will dictate targets but I would expect a move back up into the 1.5420’s-1.5450’s level for first targets.
Have a great Weekend Traders! And do me a favor, if you’ve been enjoying my post, please hit that like button and leave a comment. I’m close to making the “All-Time” top author list here at Tradingview and I think that would be awesome.
Lastly make sure you check out the interview from my client and good friend Jason Graystone “On Losing, Losing Some More, Then Winning” It’s a great read for all up and coming traders. tradingstory.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Counter Trend @ 1.12s or TCT In Anticipation of the moveA lot of my radar today going around my trading portfolio including the EURUSD. After being stopped out for a loss on yesterday’s bullish Bat pattern, we re-did our IPDE process and started making predictions for our next opportunities. I still don’t see a structure level that I’m a fan of on this pair that is until/unless we get down to the 1.1000 area, but the next potential speed bump may come around the 1.1200 even handle number.
Aside from it being a psychological number, we have multiple harmonic moves setting up in that area, some Fibonacci extensions, and most importantly, looking left we’ve got structure leaving clues.
As discussed in yesterday’s live session, the question just isn’t “where will we go?” but “how will we get there?” And this offers yet another trend continuation (TCT) opportunity if the market were to retrace in anticipation on that 1.1200 level being hit. Of course counter trend (CT) traders, this makes no difference to you as you’re only waiting for the next structure level.
We’ve got the Jackson Hole Symposium going on today which may provide some movement along with Pre-GDP and our normal Thursday Unemployment Claims out at 8:30am & Pending Home Sales at 10:00am. I don’t even try to pretend that I can predict the outcome of these events, but keep those in mind while trading today. We’ll be keeping an eye out for this one in our live trading room today along with potential trades on the GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY & USDCAD which are all high on my radar.
Also it’s THURSDAY so make sure you check out my Youtube page later for my weekly Forex Trading Video www.youtube.com
Have a great day of trading gang!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Now I'm Ready To Buy On Our 2nd Test of Yesterday's ZoneFollowing up on yesterday’s EURUSD analysis, the market reached my killzone and we saw a slight bullish bounce as previous resistance turned into support. We have now made our way back down into that zone, but this time the ebbs and flows of price action have set up a potential advanced pattern in the form of a bullish bat.
If you’re a Syndicate member, check your emails as I just recorded a video on this same trade talking about the potential bearish bat that may form as a result of this as well and why you may, or may not want to use this as an “aggressive C” opportunity, but to keep things simple, the ATR has been big enough on this pair to provide more than enough potential profit by taking traditional targets so there’s really no need to get fancy. After all, as I mentioned yesterday I’m still uncertain whether our new structure high was a true move or just a fear based reaction to the madness that’s been occurring.
Personally, I’ve always been a fan of getting my money and getting out, especially in times like these. Anyway, we can discuss it more in the Live Room today. Good luck traders and continue to be safe out there.
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Bat Pattern Setting Up, How Will We Get ThereIn yesterday’s post I mentioned that the EURUSD was at a decision point. Well, it looks like the markets didn’t decided to go with my decision to get short as I was stopped out on the 2618 opportunity. Luckily Jason had a monster day in the Syndicate bringing in just under 300 pips himself. That’s what friends are for!
Now that the Euro has broken and closed above the previous resistance level it’s time to redo that IPDE process and prepared for the next move. Our next structure level starts around the 1.1360’s area which would also line up with a bearish bat pattern completion here on the daily. I’m not a daily chart trader, but this information will be useful for building a CTS score as I do analysis on the lower timeframes. One thing to be careful with is the higher level of structure looking left. In my experience I’ve noticed that when two levels of structure are close to eachother, the higher one is typically tested. Something to keep in mind when placing those stop losses.
In the mean time, there are two ways that price action can reach that level, it can either go directly there, or we may see a pullback into previous resistance which should now act as support
Because I didn’t have the chance to record a Weekend Review video last night I’m going to do another Live Google Hangout for the first 20 minute so of today’s Live Trading Room. Here’s the link if you want to join. And make sure you subscribe to my channel.
Click here to join the hangout www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: The Next Potential Short on Euro, Bearish 2618As price action makes its way back up towards previous structure highs, we’ll reach what I like to call a “decision point” in the market. I call it that because it’s at this point where our “IF/THEN” thought process comes in today play in our decision of whether to go long or short.
Because we have yet to break structure, I won’t touch on the long option, but the short option is playing this current move as a 2618 trade. We have already entered the killzone starting at 1.1120’s and at this point I would be dialing down to your lower timeframes and looking for an entry reason.
IF this 2618 does complete and rollover, it would also be the “C” leg of a potential bullish bat pattern. You guys know how I feel about the “aggressive C” trade (BAD! BAD! BAD!) but this would be one that actually makes sense, only because you have a valid reason to enter.
I’m feeling horrible today as I’ve caught a cold from somewhere, but with A LOT on my trading radar (Syndicate members, take a look at the tradefloor this morning) I don’t want to miss what could be a day ripe with opportunity.
(If you’re unfamiliar with the 2618 trade, the free training is on our website under the “Learn to Trade” tab)
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: CPI & FOMC Today. My Advice of Trading News ReleasesToday should be a very important day for the EURUSD as we have both CPI and FOMC Meeting minutes coming out for the USD at 8:30am & 2:00pm (NY) respectively. Like many pairs as of late the Euro is currently at a spot right between structure levels where I have neither buying or selling interest. Hopefully today’s releases will push price action to either support or resistance, allowing me to have a much better read on the market for the remainder of the week.
On yesterday’s post I had a good conversation with a trader about predicting news. Whether you should or shouldn’t is completely up to you as a trader, but I do offer this advice to those who are new. Good news doesn’t always equate to a good move and bad news doesn’t always equate to a bad move. Rarely does the market move based on the actual number that is released, more so the interpretation of that number which is what makes trading news a difficult thing to consistently do (unless you’re a longer term trader). If you already have a position on (based off of the technicals) and you decide to hold an extended target because you think that the market may react a certain way, then that’s a different story as I trust that you’re using well planned out trade management techniques. But I would urge you not to try and take a position purely based off a guess, the risk over time well outweighs the reward in my opinion.
For you guys that joined me in yesterday’s Live Room Google hangout, (here’s the recording www.youtube.com) I did get filled the USDCAD that we talked about. This may be a perfect example of what I mentioned above about holding a partial position if you anticipate a certain move.
Akil Stokes
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