ALB - Dip formation might be in play Lithium prices fell more than 85% from their 2022 peak back to 2021 levels. There are still concerns about supply / demand issues. Slowing signals from EV sales might have worsened the outlook. But In 2025, the global demand for lithium is expected to surpass 1.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, a growth of 53 percent in comparison to 2023. And by 2030 3.1 million metric tons. (Statista)
Recently low prices pressured margins and Chinese CATL announced production cut equivalent to 8% of Chinese production. This might be a signal that we are close to low of business cycle.
Albemarle's name also recently came up in news with Rio Tinto's plans of acquiring a major lithium producer.
Albemarle
9/28/22 ALBAlbemarle Corporation ( NYSE:ALB )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Specialty)
Market Capitalization: $31.587B
Current Price: $277.95
Breakout price: $297.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $275.50-$250.30
Price Target: $364.40-$369.30 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 152-162d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $ALB 3/17/23 320c
Trade price as of publish date: $32.20/contract
5/18/22 ALBAlbemarle Corporation ( NYSE:ALB )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Specialty)
Market Capitalization: $27.636B
Current Price: $235.98
Breakout price: $243.05
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $231.20-$210.80
Price Target: $263.40-$265.50 (1st), $288.00-$291.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 86-90d (1st), 159-166d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $ALB 9/16/22 250c, $ALB 12/16/22
Trade price as of publish date: $22.20/contract, $31.05/contract
Albemarle - Swing trade opportunityToday, an opening gap appeared on the daily chart of Albemarle; as a result, this offers an opportunity for a simple trade setup. We are currently bearish on Albemarle and expect a complete retracement of the opening gap. Therefore, we would like to set a price target for Alb at 198.44 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Albemarle opened up almost 7%.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic turned bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover. However, we think these are false bullish signals. We conclude this from a low ADX value. The daily time frame is deceptive.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the short-trade setup.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- perform whipsaws, and ADX contains a low value. That indicates the presence of a very weak trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Albemarle (ALB) Is Currently At 205; Wait For Retracement At 215Last week I suggested shorting Albemarle (ALB) if it pushed through the many levels of support and closed below 215 in price.
Technical analysis in the form of chart patterns like descending triangles, double tops, multiple downward spikes, an increase in volume on the uptrend, and the Fibonacci retracement along with a close below a long-term upward trendline suggested that it was poised to fall.
We couldn’t for sure confirm that it was in a downtrend because it had not yet been established with the 1-2-3 method.
There was also a large head and shoulders pattern that was not confirmed. However, closing at 211 (price) on the 24th of January confirmed this pattern.
Your profits would have been massive if you had jumped in short 215 as I suggested and placed a tight stop just above one of my resistance levels (between 216 and 219). A bailout when the price reached its floor of 196, anything between 4.5 and a 9 to 1.
Take into consideration that all the confluence pointed to a massive drop, and in these situations, I like to keep my stop-loss tight to maximize profit-taking. It is risky, and there is a chance you may get stopped out, but that occurs with every trade. I was spot on in this scenario, and a 9 to 1 win is a pretty sweet deal.
Now, if you missed the trade and are kicking yourself (and you should be), don’t worry because the retracement is in progress. Using the Fibonacci retracement again, we can see that the 38% level is at 215, exactly right up against all those resistance (former support levels) levels.
It is highly unlikely that Albemarle (ALB) is going to recover from this price drop in the next couple of days.
We can now be on the lookout for a symmetrical triangle (created by the new low at 196) and a possible channel establishing the downtrend further.
If you are brave enough, you can put in a limit at 215 and place your stop-loss at 216. If prices drops to 196, your profits will be 19 to 1. Remember that besides having all the resistance at 215, 215 is a round number where many traders are possibly holding their position. This means that price will most likely find it difficult to move higher.
This also means that the price may not hit 215 because of the number of traders who have shorted there, so it's better to get in at 214.
A healthier (and smarter) trade would be to put your limit in at the Fibonacci retracement level of 38% (price 215) and put your stop-loss above the 50% Fibonacci level (price 221). This will give you ample stoppage room and space for the trade to breathe when it attempts to retrace to its highs.
This will prove difficult because of all the resistance in its way, though. Take into consideration that price may push to the Fibonacci 50% or 62% levels because of the channel forming before the drop continues.
10/31/21 ALBAlbemarle Corporation ( NYSE:ALB )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Specialty)
Current Price: $250.51
Breakout price trigger: $252.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $242.00-$230.00
Price Target: $276.00-$279.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 19-22d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $ALB 12/17/21 290c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.50/contract
[45%] (SHORT) ALBAlbemarle is the industry leader in lithium and lithium derivatives, one of the highest growth markets in the specialty chemicals industry. Our unique natural resource position, derivatization capabilities, and technology leadership allow Albemarle to execute an aggressive growth strategy for this business.
ALB BUY 03.09.2019BUY signal at 61.73
Albemarle Corporation is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of highly-engineered specialty chemicals. The Company operates through three segments: Lithium and Advanced Materials, Bromine Specialties and Refining Solutions. It is one of the biggest Lithium mining company in the world.
If you want to see more history of this strategy, I will able to show you if you request me.
__________________________________________________________________________
You can use the signals independently or like indicator of trends together with other indicators in your trading strategy.
Know that the success of your strategy that based on those signals depends from your money management and the additional conditions that you make in these strategies.
You use these signals inside your strategies at your own risk.
The chart shows the last trades on the product + the last signal.
Price Action Reflects Favorable Fundamentals Of Albemarle
Bottoming price pattern indicates bearishness has ended.
The bullish Pivot Stack shows an upward bias.
A new Monthly Pivot Range provides a higher price level of support.
In addition to the positive fundamental news that has come out recently on Albermarle, the price shows convincing evidence that the bottom is in for the time being. The bounce off the June 3rd low of 63.10, shows the price exhaustion from sellers gave way to an opportunity for value seekers to step in.
A classic 1-2-3 setup is in place for a rally from here. Off the June 3rd price bounce a strong push to the swing high of 73.94 on June 12, gives us a clear indication of the coming setup. Next, comes the June 21 retracement level to 67.25 and subsequent mixed to higher price action.
What provides further technical evidence that the price will hold support is the bullish bias of the Pivot Stack. This new term in the technical realm is not yet known, but allow me to share.
The Pivot Stack is made up of 3 pivot ranges, the Daily, Weekly and Monthly. When they converge on one side of the price bar and compress to a narrow range, this is called the Pivot Stack which shows on July 1 (see chart).
Using multiple pivot ranges in combination, helps us to identify significant support and resistance and the directional bias of the stock.
At the beginning of a new period, Daily, Weekly and Monthly, the new corresponding pivot range will display on the chart. In this case, on July 1, we see the new Monthly Pivot (black circles) displaying at a higher level than the previous month, overlayed with the Daily Pivot Range (magenta/blue circles) and the Weekly Pivot Range (red/orange circles).
The timing of the Monthly Pivot Range (black/dark green circles) is the real impetus to the Pivot Stack coming into completion. The importance of the higher long term support of the Monthly Pivot, merging with the Daily and Weekly Pivots confirms the Pivot Stack.
With the Pivot Stack setup, the current bias is bullish and the probability of a renewed upward move is significant enough to take action. The tightly compressed series of pivot ranges is the ideal time to go long ALB, confirmed with favorable value and fundamentals in place.