Alcoa
ALCOA has reached our Weekly Target. What's next?Today we will speak about ALCOA: In March, we posted the expected movement of the current trend (Link to related ideas). After 2 months, the price has already reached a major Resistance zone that has been working since 2010
Now we are asking the question. What's next?
To answer this, we will use the previous price information we have to develop possible paths for the price to take.
SCENARIO 1 (Bearish): The price is not able to make a clean break out of the resistance zone, and we have a Correction or the beginning of a new bear market. In this situation, we should expect a -20% movement between 100 and 150 days. IF the price cannot keep falling, we should be open to the idea that the correction was a break before the breakout of the resistance zone. Like the scenario, we saw between 2018 and 2018.
However, if the price keeps falling below the previous parameters, we may think that a new bearish trend will start with the first target at 22.20
SCENARIO 2 (Bullish): The price makes a clean breakout of the resistance zone reaching at least 45USD a share. IF that scenario happens, we will be waiting for a "Throwback," which is a retest of a broken level or structure, and the target for that movement will go from 57 to 61.
How to use this information): The main idea about creating possible paths is to start thinking about how you would trade certain assets IF the price reaches all your parameters. That allows you to do it calmly and professionally without being moved by your emotions. Patience is a great wealth creator.
Thanks for reading!
Alcoa: Chance for a Bearish Reversal A confluence of bearish indications
Alcoa's share price is currently probing the psychologically significant resistance level at 40.00, which serves as the upper boundary of a major accumulation range. The latter's lower end is represented by the support level at 17.00.
Breaking higher would prove quite difficult for the share price due to the massive selling pressure that is to be found just past the upper end of the range.
Despite the fact that Alcoa shares have been on the rise over the past 4 months, the continuation of the rally will find strong opposition around the major turning point at 40.00. The resistance is currently being crossed by the descending trend line (in red), which increases the likelihood of a bearish rebound occurring from the current level. Moreover, the 300-day MA (n purple) and the 200-day MA (in orange) are also advancing parallel to the resistance level, making it even less likely for the rally to continue uninterrupted. However, that is not to say that potential fakeouts to the 45.00-50.00 range are entirely impossible.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI indicator is ringing the "overbought" bell as bullish bias reaches a climax. This could give bears more reasons to step up and increase the selling pressure at this swing peak, which would consequently support the emergence of a new correction.
The nearest support can be found around the 100-day MA (in blue), which can presently be found at 27.40. In other words, an imminent correction from the latest peak would entail a likely dropdown of more than $13 (32%) in the share price.
Alcoa's robust quarterly performance
The latest upswing was largely inspired by the strong earnings data that the mining giant posted recently. According to the findings of the earnings report for Q1:
Revenue grew to $2.87 billion, up from the $2.38 billion from one year ago
EPS (earnings per share) grew to $0.79, far surpassing the negative $0.23 EPS that were posted for the same period last year
Even still, the market has already had more than two weeks to price in this performance, and the "market excitement" factor that drove the hike is thus likely to start waning down soon.
AAAlcoa (NYSE:AA) was a big winner Friday, as the stock closed up $32 on decent volume. I feel that there will be a continuation move next week, but I want to see a close above $33 before I buy. There are several short term technical indications suggesting that AA could make a move to higher levels. Worth putting on the watchlist.
The weekly target for ALCOA CORPORATIONThis is a simple post, mainly for people holding this stock and want to have an idea of exit levels or what to expect in the coming weekly candlesticks.
-Our approach to any chart is straightforward. It is based on analyzing things that happened in the past in specific areas and then replicating those conditions to the present to understand how the price can evolve.
-In this case, since 2009, we can see a clear support zone at 16.00; every time the price reached that level, we saw huge bullish pressure. When the price went below that level, it didn't take too much time to see it above again. If the 16.00 level is an accumulation zone, where is the distribution zone?
-To answer this, we can use the same approach. 40.00 is a distribution zone since 2009 for Alcoa. Every time the price reached that level, we observed selling pressure. Even when the price went above that level, the price retreat first. As a final target for the movement we observe, we think 40USD is a great area to close setups and see if we have corrective patterns that can provide us information about more bullish pressure coming or see huge sell-offs like the ones that happened in the past.
ALCOA CORP : BEARISH BAT PATTERN - POTENTIAL R/R 2.95% 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors and Community!
Analysis of #ALCOA CORPORATION
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Strategy: Bearish BAT With potential Max R/R 2.95%
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$AA Alcoa Corp - Oversold Finding Support$AA Alcoa Corp - Oversold finding support just above $11.50 this week. Expecting to see a near term bounce from this level.
Adding to the bullish sentiment - some unusual options activity Friday:
19k $14.00 strike (far OTM) Jan'21 calls traded vs open interest of 1,156 or 16 times OI for a total premium outlay of $1.5M
Near term price target = $13.00-$14.00 range by mid-October
Note: This is NOT investment advice.
Potential SHORT ALCOA STOCK AS DOUBLE TOP FORMED!Double Top has formed for ALCOA CORPORATION which gives us signal to SHORT. However, if the price breaks the resistance level 14.00, upside movement will most likely to happen. To note, the current price is currently on the lowest pivot point, it might also gives us signal that V-shape recovery would likely to happen if the stock price rallies to go up.
Key Trading Plan:
i) SHORT from the current price to the Take Profit Target at 6.57.
ii) LONG if the price breaks the resistance 14.00 with the Take Profit Target of 21.00
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"Alcoa: on a Micro Ascending Channel" by ThinkingAntsOk4H Chart Explanation:
- Price is on a Down Trend on a Weekly Basis.
- Price is on the top of the Micro Ascending Channel.
- Now, price can break it up or down. If it breaks it up, it has potential to move towards the Descending Trendline. If it breaks it down, it will move down towards the Support Zone.
Weekly Vision:
Daily Vision:
Updates coming soon!
Alcoa maybe interesting for 10 year long term playAlcoa this morning was trading at a price to book of .2. It has broken the immediate downtrend resistance. This morning it was at support from 1975 and held. It is the most oversold it has ever been in its history. Might be interesting to begin scaling a position as the market goes dow
"Alcoa: towards the $6 Zone" by ThinkingAntsOk4H Chart Explanation:
- Price broke the Ascending Trendline and started a huge down move.
- Price broke the Support Zone (Resistance Zone now).
- We are expecting a correction that allow us set a trade towards the next Support Zone.
Weekly Vision:
Daily Vision:
Updates coming soon!
[ALCOA] Potential pullback or reversal....From a technical point of view, ALCOA has reached a very important support area and if it manages to keep it, a technical rebound or a reversal trend is possible.
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