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Alexeywolf

AUDUSD. Trading opportunityHello traders and investors! On the daily time frame, there has been a sideways range since August 24 (with point 4 formed). The lower boundary is 0.63478, and the upper boundary is 0.6942. The seller's vector 5-6 within the range on the daily time frame has reached the target of 0.65604. The buyer has halted the downward movement and is trying to start their vector 6-7 with a potential target of 0.67985. If we think not in terms of the range, but how the last buyer’s impulse, which started at 0.63478, traders have gathered volume below the 50% level (0.66278) of this impulse, which may indicate an attempt to reverse the price upwards. We should pay attention to how the price interacts with the 0.6622 level. This is the start of the buyer’s last sub-impulse (which nearly coincides with the 50% level of the last impulse!). If the buyer manages to break through this level and defend it, this accumulation below the level will provide good fuel for an upward move, and long positions can be sought. If the seller defends the 0.6622 level, it makes sense to wait for the buyer’s next attempt to reverse the price on the daily time frame, as searching for short positions in the buyer’s context area is risky. Short positions can be looked for on lower time frames, with lower time frame targets and considering the contexts of both the higher and lower time frames. A medium-term forecast can be found in the related post. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
1
EURUSD. Selling opportunitiesHello traders and investors! A detailed analysis of the currency pair can be found in the related post. A price drop to the 1.06011 level was expected. Weekly Timeframe Analysis On the weekly timeframe, the buyer's vector 7-8 is developing within the range. There was an attempt to resume buying from the buyer’s zone (green rectangle on the chart). The buyer’s bar with increased volume did not bring any results for the buyer: the bar’s closing price is within the seller’s bar with lower volume. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, there was a manipulation of the level marking the beginning of the seller’s last impulse: a false breakout of the 1.08718 level aimed at gathering liquidity, followed by the price returning below the level. The buyer’s attack bar on this level has the highest volume among all buyer bars. The seller pushed the price back below the level, and a seller's zone was formed (red rectangle on the chart). Summary On the weekly timeframe, the buyer with increased volume failed to show results. On the daily timeframe, there was a manipulation of the seller's last impulse level. Priority: sales. Potential targets on the daily timeframe: 1.07821, 1.07612.
by AlexeyWolf
BTCUSDT. Selling and Buying StrategyHello traders and investors! It’s time for a new analysis, as all the targets from the previous analysis have been reached, and the situation has changed. Daily Timeframe Analysis As a reminder, on the daily timeframe, a sideways movement was formed on March 5 (with point 4). The lower boundary is at 49,000, and the upper boundary is at 73,777. The buyer's vector 10-11 has reached its target at 72,797. At the end of the vector, a buyer's bar with increased volume was formed. Just below, a buyer's zone appeared (green rectangle on the chart, with the upper edge at 69,519). The price is currently testing this buyer's zone. We are waiting for the buyer's reaction. The seller's vector 11-12 is now relevant, with potential targets of 52,550 and 49,000. At the same time, there are some signs that the price could update the all-time high (ATH): The seller's vector 9-10 broke the lower boundary of the range (point 4), but vector 10-11 has not yet broken the upper boundary (point 7). 8H Timeframe Analysis On the 8-hour timeframe, a sideways movement was formed on July 29 (with point 4). The lower boundary is at 49,000, and the upper boundary is at 71,997. The buyer's vector 5-6 successfully broke above the upper boundary of the range. At the end of this vector, a buyer's bar with increased volume was absorbed by the seller, who formed a seller's zone at the upper boundary of the range (red rectangle on the chart, with the lower edge at 71,864). The latest sub-impulse on the 8-hour timeframe started from the 65,596 level. A buyer's zone is located at the base of this sub-impulse (green rectangle on the chart, with the upper edge at 67,890). The price is currently testing the level of the previous sub-impulse's end at 68,850. We are waiting for the buyer's reaction. The seller's vector 6-7 is now relevant, with potential targets of 52,550 and 49,000. However, there are also signs that the price may update the ATH: the configuration of bars and volumes within the buyer's vector 5-6 shows that key volumes are located at the base of the vector. Summary On both the daily and 8-hour timeframes, the buyer's vectors within the ranges have played out. The seller's vectors are now relevant. The seller has begun to resume activity, and the price has entered a contextual buyer's zone. At the same time, there are signs on both the daily and 8-hour timeframes that the price could update the ATH. For this reason, it's advisable to look for short trades from the seller's zone protection on the 8-hour timeframe. It's also possible that the seller will form a seller's zone on the daily timeframe today if they absorb the buyer's bar from October 29. Looking for long trades is reasonable from the buyer's zone protection on the daily or 8-hour timeframe, for example, in the 66,000–68,000 range. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
Difference between candles and barsHey traders and investors! What is the difference between using candles or bars on a chart? This example clearly shows the key difference. Take note of the closing price of the candle on September 26 (point 8 of the range). On a candlestick chart, this is impossible to understand. On a bar chart, the closing price is clearly visible. The closing price is below the range boundary of 111.34, the trading volume is enormous, and the buyer was unable to break above the range. Now, the price has reached the range boundary of 111.34 for the second time on increased volume, and the seller has absorbed the buyer, forming a buyer's zone at the upper boundary of the range. There is a high probability of further price decline within the short vector 8-9 of the range (potential target 85.92). However, there are threats along the seller's path. You might consider buying at the 98.7 level (if buyer will protect it) or around 84-86. Good luck with your trading and investments!
NASDAQ:MU
by AlexeyWolf
2
A classic setup for finding trading opportunitiesHi traders and investors! In a recent post, I talked about a classic setup. You can find the post below in the related ideas section. I decided to elaborate on it a bit more because this setup frequently appears across different assets, and certain elements of this setup are common in various trading methodologies. In this article, I used a bar chart because bars take up less space, making it easier to see other elements of the chart. Take a look at the chart. The seller's move from the 52,550 level updated the previous local high. The bar with the highest volume in this entire buyer's movement is the bar from September 18. The 50% level of the entire buyer's movement lies within this bar (!). Next, we see the seller's movement, and on October 3, a test is formed within the key buyer's bar, at the level of 59,828.11. The price didn't reach the 50% level (59,524). The key seller's bar in this movement (the bar with the highest volume) is the bar from October 1. The 50% level of the entire seller's movement is within this bar (!). Next, we see the buyer's movement, and on October 5, a test is formed within the key seller's bar, at the level of 62,484.85. The price didn't reach the 50% level (63,163.06). Then we see the buyer's attack on the test level of 62,484.85 and the 50% level of the seller's movement (63,163.06), followed by the seller returning the price below the test level, accumulating volume for a downward move. After that, the local minimum of 59,828.11 was updated. Then, the seller attacks the test level of 59,828.11 and the 50% level of the buyer's movement (59,524), and the buyer returns the price above the test level, gathering volume for an upward move. What happens next... we will soon see. This is how the buyer's attack on the 50% level of the seller's movement looked on the 4-hour time frame. No differences whatsoever. Although, maybe I didn’t look hard enough. The key bar of the seller's movement intersects the 50% movement. First, there’s a test below the 50% level (test level 62,975), then an attack on the test level and the 50% level. Hope you found it interesting. Good luck with your trading and investments!
Education
by AlexeyWolf
2
XAUUSD. Impressive traded volumes on GoldHello traders and investors! An interesting situation is unfolding with gold, with impressive traded volumes. Weekly Timeframe (TF) There is an uptrend. The start of the last impulse is at 2471.915, and the end of the impulse is at 2685.64. All three candles in this impulse show increased volume. The key candle of the impulse is the last one (marked "KC" on the chart with the largest volume in the impulse). The seller's correction candle (from September 30) and the buyer's resumption candle (from October 7) have even larger increasing volumes. However, neither the correction candle nor the buyer's resumption candle showed results relative to the key impulse candle—they both closed within the body of the key candle. Moreover, the volume of the buyer's resumption candle was 75% higher than the volume of the key candle and 50% higher than the correction candle. This weekly volume was the highest for both 2023 and 2024( ! ). I would like to see some results from such volume. Daily Timeframe On the daily TF, there is a sideways movement since September 30 (point 4 was formed). The upper boundary is 2685.64, and the lower boundary is 2624.78. The current buyer's vector is 6-7, with potential targets of 2673.26 (first) and 2685.64 (second). The seller's vector 5-6 has effectively broken through the lower boundary of the range. The key candle of the seller's vector from October 8 is the last one in the vector (marked "KC" on the chart, with the largest volume in the vector). On Friday, October 11, the buyer absorbed this seller's candle, forming a buyer's zone at the lower boundary of the range (green rectangle on the chart). The traded volume in the candle from October 8 was the largest of all of 2024( ! ). Summary On the weekly TF, we have massive volume, which has not yet led to a new high. On the daily TF, the seller's impressive volume was absorbed by the buyer, and the current buyer's vector is active. I suspect the weekly buyer simply hasn't had time to show results yet—there wasn't enough time. The priority is to look for buying opportunities. The first potential target is 2673.26, with the second at 2685.64. Good luck with your trading and investments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
3
BTCUSDT. Trading opportunityHi traders and investors! Update on the Bitcoin situation. Daily Timeframe On the daily time frame (TF), the seller's candle with increased volume did not yield results relative to the wick of the previous candle. Hourly Timeframe On the hourly TF, there is a range, and the buyer is defending the lower boundary of the range at 59,828. The current buyer's vector is 5-6, with a potential target of 63,468 (64,478). The key candle (the one with the highest volume) in the seller's vector 4-5 is at the bottom of the vector ("KC" on the chart), and it was absorbed by the buyer. Highlights Based on both the daily and hourly TFs, the current priority is to look for buying opportunities. Threats to the buyer: The level marking the start of the seller's last sub-impulse on the hourly TF is 61,321, which is also the high of the last daily candle. There's also a seller's zone (red rectangle on the chart), with the lower edge at 62,326.
by AlexeyWolf
EURUSD. Medium term analysisHello traders and investors! The previous medium-term analysis can be found in the related idea. Some new interesting information has emerged, which I would like to share with you. Weekly Timeframe Analysis On the weekly timeframe, a sideways movement has been forming since October 2023 (with point 4 established). The upper boundary is 1.12757, and the lower boundary is 1.04485. The current seller’s vector is 7-8, with a potential first target of 1.06011. Last week, the seller resumed activity. A potential threat for the seller is the buyer's zone (marked by a green rectangle on the chart), with its upper edge at 1.08851. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, there was a sideways movement starting from August 2024 (point 4 was established). The upper boundary was 1.12142, and the lower boundary was 1.10002. The seller's vector 9-10 broke below the lower boundary, initiating a short trend. The beginning of the last seller's impulse is 1.09973. The end of the impulse will be confirmed when we see the first daily candle of the buyer. The end of the previous seller's impulse was at 1.09514. Highlights The priority is to look for sell opportunities. Purchases should be considered if the price returns above 1.09973, and the buyer protects this level. If we look at the average time taken for vectors in the sideways movement on the weekly timeframe, it generally takes about 15 weeks for the price to realize the vector, meaning that by approximately January 2025, the seller might reach their target. If we account for a mathematical progression (+3 weeks to the next vector), it may take around 21 weeks to achieve this. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
Microsoft. There is still potential for the price to decline.Hello traders and investors! Let's take a look at the situation with Microsoft stocks. I believe there is still potential for the price to decline. Weekly Timeframe On the weekly TF, there is an attempt to reverse the long trend. The first seller's impulse has been formed. The level of the last buyer’s impulse start is 445.66, and the level of the last seller’s impulse start is 468.35. The end of the last seller's impulse is at 385.58. Key candle in the seller's impulse is from July 24 (largest volume in the impulse, marked as "KC" on the chart). It was tested by the buyer on August 19. The test level is 426.70. The buyer missed the 50% level of the seller's impulse (426.97) by 27 cents. Then, the buyer attacked the test level with two candles on increased volume, bringing the price above the 50% level, but the seller pushed the price back below the test level (426.70), forming a seller's zone above (red rectangle on the chart). Further price decline is likely, with the first target at 400.8, which is the start of the last buyer's sub-impulse on the weekly TF. Daily Timeframe On the daily TF, there’s a sideways range (formed on August 22, with point 4). The upper boundary is 432.15, and the lower boundary is 385.58. The relevant seller's vector is 6-7, with the first potential target being 400.8 (then 385.58). The buyer's vector 5-6 broke above the upper boundary of the range, gathered volume, and the seller returned the price to the range, forming a seller's zone at the upper boundary. This zone was tested on September 26, after which the seller's continuation began. The buyer attempted a recovery on September 30 with increased volume but failed to deliver results. Yesterday, the seller engulfed the buyer's candle. Highlights On both the weekly and daily TFs, the priority is to look for selling opportunities. The last daily candle has increased volume, making it a good point to start looking for sell opportunities. On the daily TF, possible threats to short positions include the 50% level of the last buyer's impulse at 413.72 and the buyer's zone with an upper boundary at 410.65 (green rectangle on the chart). It makes sense to consider buying opportunities when the buyer shows strength, for example, when interacting with the levels of 400 or 385 and defending them. How to decode candle volumes is explained here Good luck with your trading and investments!
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by AlexeyWolf
AUDUSD. Medium and short term analysisHello traders and investors! The price reached the target of the forecast from April. Some medium-term forecasts take a long time to come to fruition. It creates the impression that medium-term forecasts always come true. You can use the following criterion to consider a forecast fulfilled: ensure that the price does not break the last local extreme before reaching the target. If this condition is met, the forecast can be considered successfully realized. In the April forecast, the last local extreme is point 5 of the sideways range (0.62701). Weekly Timeframe Analysis Let me remind you that on the weekly timeframe (TF), a sideways range has been forming since January 2023 (point 4). The lower boundary is 0.61699, and the upper boundary is 0.71577. Formally, the buyer has reached the target of the 5-6 vector (0.69205), and there are no signs of reversal yet. The last two weekly candles show increased volume, with small buying wicks. However, the price is currently in the seller's contextual area (the upper range of the weekly TF sideways movement), but the seller is not utilizing this volume yet. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily TF, a sideways range has been forming since August 24 (point 4). The lower boundary is 0.63478, and the upper boundary is 0.67985. The buyer's 4-5 vector has broken through the upper boundary of the range. For three days, the price has been unable to break through the level marking the start of the last seller's sub-impulse on the weekly TF (0.68996). Below, the buyer is defending the breakout of the last sub-impulse seller level on the daily TF (0.68239). For the last two days, the buyer has applied increased volume with no result. On the other hand, the price is in the seller’s contextual area (the upper range of the weekly TF sideways movement), so the seller should be evaluated first—and so far, the seller is absent. Highlight: • There are no signs of the seller on either the weekly or daily TFs to justify looking for mid-term sales. A sign of the seller could be a return of the price to the daily TF sideways range and the seller defending that return. • There is no context for mid-term buys, as the price is in the upper part of the weekly TF range (a seller's contextual area). 2H Timeframe Analysis For short-term buys or sells, you can use, for example, the 2-hour TF. On this TF, there is a sideways range, with the seller’s 7-8 vector being active and the potential target at 0.68179. The seller has returned the price to the range (below 0.69081), forming a seller’s zone above (marked by a red rectangle on the chart). Sales can be considered. When selling, monitor the price's movement around 0.6868 and 0.68625. Purchases can be considered from the lower boundary of the range (0.68144) if the buyer defends it. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
XAGUSD. Trading opportunityHello traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, the price has formed a sideways range that began in April. The upper boundary is 32.5185, and the lower boundary is 26.0185. The buyer's vector 8-9 has reached the target of 31.755 (see the previous post). There are no signs of a reversal yet to indicate the realization of the seller's vector 9-10, with a potential target of 26.471. 4H Timeframe Analysis On the 4-hour timeframe, the price has formed a sideways range below the level of 31.755. The upper boundary is 31.4335, and the lower boundary is 29.7085. Currently, the buyer has broken through the upper boundary of the range. If the buyer defends the 31.4335 – 31.755 range, it is possible to look for buying opportunities, with a potential target of 32.5185. Good luck with your trading and investments!
OANDA:XAGUSD
by AlexeyWolf
BNBUSDT. Trading opportunityHello traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis: On the daily timeframe, the sideways movement that began in March continues. The upper boundary is 721.8, and the lower boundary is 495.8. The buyer's vector 10-11 is relevant, with a potential target of 645.2. Two days ago, the buyer overcame 598 and reached 605.6, where volume accumulation started. If the buyer defends 598, the next targets are 635 and 645. Hourly Timeframe Analysis: On the hourly timeframe, there is an uptrend. The level marking the beginning of the last buyer's impulse is 587.9. I will be watching the buyer's reaction at the levels of 598 and 587.9. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
BTCUSDT. Buying opportunitiesHello traders and investors! For a month, I followed the previous analysis. Now, I’ve decided to create a new one. Let me remind you of the setup. Quotes: On the 8-hour time frame, a sideways range has also formed. The lower boundary is at 53,485, and the upper boundary is at 71,997. On the 2-hour timeframe, the seller's vector 8-9 has reached the target of 56078. The volume and delta are conducive to gathering stop losses below the level. The quick recovery by the buyer after the breakout and the candle closing above 56078 increase the likelihood of the price dropping below the local low of 55606. For the buyer's range vector 9-10 to play out (with a potential target of 62745), it would be prudent to accumulate volume and push the price below the local low of 55606. In fact, the price followed the assumptions. What’s next? On the daily and 8-hour timeframes, the buyer absorbed the seller's candle and formed a buyer's zone. At the same time, on the 8-hour timeframe, the seller touched the lower boundary of the range at 53,485, from where the buyer resumed. On the 2-hour timeframe, the seller manipulated the level of the beginning of the buyer's last impulse (56,078) at point 7 of the range. The price is currently above this level. All these factors favor searching for buy opportunities. I f the buyer defends 56,078 , potential targets are 58,519, 59,005, and 62,745, 65000 on the 2-hour timeframe, 61,166, 62,198, and 70,079 on the 8-hour timeframe, and 61,166, 62,745, 70,079, and 72,797 on the daily timeframe. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
Two Roads to Profit. A Comparison of ICT/SMC and Advanced VSAHello traders and investors! When we start engaging in trading and investing, we get acquainted with various methods of forecasting price movements. Gradually, if we have enough persistence, strength, and patience, we choose our own path to profitable trades. Among the most popular approaches, we can highlight the use of various oscillators and channels, Dow Theory, Elliott Waves, Fibonacci levels, supply and demand, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), market auction theory, and the Inner Circle Trader/Smart Money Concept (ICT/SMC). Many traders combine elements from different approaches into their trading system. I personally prefer a concept I call Advanced VSA. It’s a comprehensive set of tools that combines ideas from VSA, Dow Theory, and Supply and Demand analysis. The name "Advanced VSA" perfectly captures the essence of the method, as it is fundamentally based on analyzing volume and price spread. Recently, the ICT/SMC concept has been gaining more and more popularity. Today, I want to explore the similarities and differences between ICT/SMC and Advanced VSA. If there are any inaccuracies in my explanation of ICT/SMC basics, feel free to correct me in the comments. Perhaps after reading this article, you’ll be able to decide which approach resonates more with you and which one you believe will help you in your trading. I hope this will be helpful. Let’s dive in! Basic Differences Before diving into the technical details, let's first clarify the key differences between these concepts. Who Controls Price Movements The ICT/SMC concept assumes that price movements are controlled by large players, such as market makers, who direct prices in the desired direction. This is similar to a model where one "center of power" determines the market's direction. In contrast, Advanced VSA is based on the idea that two forces influence price — the Buyer and the Seller. All analysis revolves around the interaction between these two sides, creating a more balanced model where both forces are equally important. Traded Volume The ICT/SMC concept does not use traded volume as a part of its analysis. In Advanced VSA, volume is an important factor. It is considered an integral part of the data that helps to understand market processes and the actions of participants. Now let’s move on to a detailed comparison of the elements of these concepts. What They Have in Common Both concepts teach traders to identify price ranges on the chart where a large player (Market Maker in ICT/SMC) or a Buyer (in Advanced VSA) shows interest in buying, and ranges where the Market Maker or Seller is interested in selling. When the price returns to these ranges, traders can execute buys or sells. We can call these price ranges contextual areas for buying and selling. Neither concept relies on technical indicators. Instead, they focus on the following key terms for identifying the trade direction and the trade entry point: Trend Trend break/half-trend Trend confirmation Accumulation/Distribution/Sideways movement/Flat Contextual areas for buying and selling The first four terms help determine the direction of the trade, while the fifth helps identify the entry point and the likely target of the trade. Both methods suggest using higher timeframes to find contextual areas and lower timeframes to find entry points within those areas. What Are the Differences The differences between the concepts lie in the interpretation of key terms. For the first four terms (trend, trend break, trend confirmation, accumulation/distribution/Sideways movement), the distinctions are minor and relate mostly to specific interpretations. However, the main differences arise in the rules for identifying contextual areas of interest (buyer, seller, or market maker). Let's look at these differences in more detail. Difference 1: Use of Volume In ICT/SMC, contextual areas of interest are determined solely based on price action and candlestick patterns, without taking traded volume into account. In contrast, Advanced VSA sees volume as an integral part of the analysis. contextual areas of interest are identified by both traded volume and price behavior (candlestick patterns). If there was interest from a buyer, seller in a specific price range, leading to a price change, it's logical to assume that the volume traded in that range should be higher than in previous periods over a similar timeframe. To illustrate the importance of using all available data for analysis, consider an analogy with choosing the best time for a seaside vacation. If the decision is based only on water and air temperature, while ignoring factors like wind or rainfall, the choice may be misguided. For example, choosing April for its comfortable temperature might result in encountering constant rain and high waves. Thus, in Advanced VSA, volume plays a crucial role, whereas it is absent in ICT/SMC. Difference 2: Types of Contextual Areas of Interest In ICT/SMC, the following types of contextual areas of interest are used: order block, breaker, mitigation block, and rejection block. All of these areas are formed by a specific arrangement of candles on the chart. In contrast, Advanced VSA operates with a different set of contextual areas of interest: effort, zone, and range (sideways movement). Effort refers to a single candle or bar that indicates significant market activity. Zone is formed by a sequence of candles or bars, taking into account their traded volumes. Range (sideways movement) is defined by a series of consecutive candles/bars where price fluctuates within a limited range, interacting alternately with the upper and lower boundaries of the range. It's only possible to identify which party (buyer, seller, or market maker) controls the range after the price breaks out and confirms the move. If the volumes align with Advanced VSA's criteria, order blocks and mitigation blocks in ICT/SMC can be considered as zones in Advanced VSA. So, not all order blocks and mitigation blocks will be considered zones in Advanced VSA. The breaker will be discussed separately, and there is no equivalent to the rejection block in Advanced VSA. Difference 3. Price Attraction Points In ICT/SMC, concepts such as fair value gap, liquidity void, and liquidity are used to describe price attraction points. In Advanced VSA, the terms fair value gap and liquidity void are not utilized. Most of the time, these ICT/SMC elements correspond to price interest points in Advanced VSA, such as effort. The term liquidity has the same meaning. Difference 4. Importance of Levels In Advanced VSA, levels play an important role in identifying trade opportunities. To understand the significance of levels, let’s first recall the concepts of trend and range (sideways movement). In both ICT/SMC and Advanced VSA, a trend is broken down into components, often referred to as impulses or expansion moves. A range, on the other hand, is characterized by its boundaries and the vectors of price movement between those boundaries. In Advanced VSA, important trading signals include the defense of a broken level or a price retracement to a level followed by its defense. In Advanced VSA, the defense of a broken level or the cancellation of a breakout (where the price returns back behind the broken level) followed by a defense of that level is considered a signal for identifying trades. This method helps traders spot potential entry points where either buyers or sellers to protect a key price level, giving more confidence in the direction of the market. The most important levels include the base of the last impulse, the boundaries of a range, and the test level of a zone. In ICT/SMC, there are no direct equivalents of these elements when it comes to searching for trades. However, breakers and sometimes mitigation blocks serve similar purposes to the levels in Advanced VSA, but the approaches differ. In ICT/SMC, trades are typically executed within the breaker or mitigation block, whereas in Advanced VSA, trades are found when a level is defended: buy trades above the level (supported by buyers), and sell trades below the level (supported by sellers). Additionally, Advanced VSA allows for trading within ranges, moving from one boundary to the other, as long as the boundaries are defended. Summary Despite the shared terms and similar approaches, there are significant differences between the two concepts: Number of forces influencing price movement: In ICT/SMC, it is believed that price is controlled by a single force, the Market Maker (MM). In contrast, Advanced VSA considers the interaction of two forces—buyers and sellers—as driving price movements. Use of volume in analysis: ICT/SMC does not take traded volume into account during analysis, while in Advanced VSA, volume is a crucial element for identifying market forces and areas of interest. Use of levels for trade entries: In ICT/SMC, levels do not play an important role, whereas in Advanced VSA, levels one of the possible places for identifying potential trade setups. Good luck with your trading and investing!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by AlexeyWolf
2
AAVE. Trading opportunityHello traders and investors! The token has reached all targets, and the previous analysis is no longer relevant. It's time to create a new one. Daily Timeframe On the daily timeframe, the price has formed a sideways range, which started in March. The upper boundary is at 133.94, and the lower boundary is at 70. The current seller's vector is 12-13, with a potential target of 71.06 (70). On August 21, the price broke above the upper boundary of the range with significant volume. However, the seller pushed the price back into the range and established a seller's zone at the upper boundary of the range on August 27 (red rectangle on the chart). At the same time, the seller tested the buyer's candle from August 19 (which was on increased volume) at the test level of 117.15. Yesterday, the buyer moved up to test the seller's zone, and the seller resumed from the 129 level. This might become the test level if a bearish candle forms today. Hourly Timeframe On the hourly timeframe, the price has also formed a range. The upper boundary is at 129, and the lower boundary is at 117.15 (which coincides with the daily test level). The current seller's vector is 6-7, with a potential target of 121.32. In ranges, it's advisable to trade from boundary to boundary if the boundary is defended. Sell opportunities can be looked for from the seller's defense of the upper boundary at 129. Buy opportunities can be considered from the buyer's defense at 121.32 and 117.15. Good luck with your trading and investing!
by AlexeyWolf
NEARUSDT. Buying opportunitiesHello traders and investors! If you are looking to buy, I suggest considering NEAR. I believe there is a good potential for growth of 20-40%. Daily Time Frame On the daily time frame, the price has formed a sideways range that started in March. The upper boundary is at 8.52, and the lower boundary is at 4.279. The price has touched the lower boundary twice. The second interaction, which occurred on August 5, was marked by impressive volume, which was absorbed by the buyer on August 13, pushing the price back into the range. This candle was pivotal (the largest volume, marked with “KC” on the chart) in the seller’s impulse, which forms vector 4-5 of the range. By absorbing this candle, the buyer established a buying zone (green rectangle on the chart) from which buyer's vector 5-6 started, with a potential target of 6.89. The buyer faces a significant obstacle beginning at the 50% level of the last seller's impulse, at 5.798. At this same level, a seller’s zone (red rectangle on the chart) has formed, and the level 5.798 is the start of the last sub-impulse of the seller's last impulse. Interestingly, the last sub-impulse of the buyer started at the 4.000 level (low of the sub-impulse at 4.000, high of the sub-impulse at 6.489), and on August 5, liquidity was taken below the 4.000 level. 4-Hour Time Frame There is a long trend. The starting level of the buyer's last impulse is at 4.738. A seller's zone formed at the end of this impulse. Currently, the buyer is testing this zone. If the price returns to 4.738 and the buyer defends this level, there may be buying opportunities, as the seller resumed action from the seller’s zone at the end of the impulse (meaning the zone has been tested), and the seller could not defeat the buyer at the beginning level of the last impulse. Buying Strategy It makes sense to look for buys from the daily candle of August 23, which showed a surge in volume. The targets are 6.000 and 6.489. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
2
Looking for buy opportunities in the crypto market!Hello traders and investors! I’ve selected four assets in the crypto market where buying opportunities can be considered. Each of these four assets has formed a range, with the seller's impulse completed and the buyer's impulse now active. BNB : Buyer’s 10-11 impulse, potential targets: 598, 645.2 TON : Buyer’s 6-7 impulse, potential targets: 7.35, 7.72, 8.1582 AAVE : Buyer’s 11-12 impulse, potential targets: 120.08, 132.57 ADA : Buyer’s 5-6 impulse, potential targets: 0.3730, 0.4292, 0.4504 Among these, BNB appears the strongest, as two buyer's zones have formed in the 10-11 impulse. These zones were created when the buyer absorbed a seller's candle with increased volume (the buyer's zone is marked by a blue rectangle on the chart). ADA, on the other hand, looks the weakest among the four, as it has not yet been able to close a daily candle above the high of the August 8th candle, which absorbed the seller's attack on the lower boundary of the range, forming a buyer's zone. It's advisable to use lower timeframes when looking for buying opportunities. I have selected examples of lower timeframes for you.
by AlexeyWolf
1
XAGUSD. Trading opportunity Hello traders and investors! I reviewed the assets and highlighted silver as an interesting opportunity for trades next week. For example, in gold, on the daily timeframe, the price has broken out of a range, and it’s hard to predict how far it will go. In silver, the targets are clearer. Weekly Timeframe On the weekly timeframe, there’s a bullish trend. The last upward impulse started from the 17.559 level. The most recent sub-impulse within that impulse began at the 26.0185 level. At the end of the impulse, a seller's zone formed after the seller absorbed a buyer's candle with growing volume, which has already been tested by the buyer—the test level is 29.2285 (seller's zone marked by a red rectangle on the chart). The seller's candle at the test level had the highest volume in a year, but the result was just a shadow: the body of the candle couldn’t close below the shadow of the previous candle. The latest weekly candle, with falling volume, absorbed the seller’s candle. This indicates that although the seller tried to resume the downward movement from their zone, they have been unsuccessful so far. Daily Timeframe On the daily timeframe, the price has formed a range that began in April. The upper boundary is 32.5185, and the lower boundary is 26.0185. The seller’s 7-8 impulse has played out, and now the buyer's 8-9 impulse is active, with a potential target of 31.755. A buyer's zone has formed at the base of the new 8-9 buyer’s impulse after the buyer absorbed the seller's candle from August 5th, which had growing volume (buyer’s zone marked by a blue rectangle on the chart). Note the volume of the seller’s candle from August 5th—it’s the highest in several months. Thus, on both the weekly and daily timeframes, the priority is on buying . There are obstacles on the buyer's path that need to be monitored. The first obstacle is the start of the last sub-impulse in the seller's 7-8 impulse (29.2285), and the second obstacle is the previous weekly high (30.1365), where a seller's zone has also formed. Buying Strategy For trade setups, you could consider the 4-hour timeframe. On this timeframe, the price has formed a range with an upper boundary of 29.2285 and a lower boundary of 26.4710. You could, for example, look for buying opportunities from the buyer’s defense of the lower boundary of the range or after a breakout to the upside and the buyer's defense of that breakout.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by AlexeyWolf
BTCUSDT. Bitcoin is still in the gameHello traders and investors! On the daily time frame, Bitcoin's price remains in a sideways movement near the lower boundary at 59,005. Despite three expansions below this boundary—on May 1 (56,552), July 5 (53,485), and August 5 (49,000)—only the May 1 expansion was significant, with the daily candle closing below the previous boundary of 59,005. The candles on July 7 and August 5 closed below 56,552 but failed to close below the wicks of the July 5 candle, which previously expanded the range. If the seller is aiming to push the price lower and has made two attempts on July 5 and August 6, we would expect to see a result with a solid close, not just a wick. If we continue to think in terms of a sideways movement (which I believe we should), the current relevant vector is the buyer's 10-11. On August 8, a buyer's zone was formed (blue rectangle). The absorbed volume of the seller’s August 5 candle is impressive—the largest volume in a year. Note that there are two levels formed by two tests: 62745 is the test of the seller's candle from August 2nd, which had increased volume, and 57642 is the test of the buyer's zone at the lower boundary of the range. Currently, the price is squeezed between these levels. Let's analyze the lower time frames for potential trading ideas. 8H Timeframe Analysis On the 8-hour time frame, a sideways range has also formed. The lower boundary is at 53,485, and the upper boundary is at 71,997. In the buyer's 5-6 vector, a buyer's zone has formed at the bottom (blue rectangle), and a seller's zone has formed at the top (red rectangle). Both zones have been tested. The buyer's zone was tested at 57,642, and the seller's zone at 60,711. Currently, the price is squeezed between these levels, with a potential target of 70,079 for the buyer's 5-6 vector. Let's study what’s happening in the buyer's vector on a lower time frame. 2H Timeframe Analysis The price has formed a sideways range, with the lower boundary at 49,000 (daily level too) and the upper boundary at 62,745 (daily level too). The level of 57,642 from the 8-hour time frame is the potential target for the seller’s 6-7 vector, while 60,711 is the potential target for the buyer’s 7-8 vector. Trading Ideas Medium-term Buys : Can be considered from the idea of the buyer's 5-6 vector on the 8-hour time frame or the buyer's 10-11 vector on the daily time frame. Short-term Buys : Can be considered from the idea of the buyer's 7-8 vector on the 2-hour time frame, defending levels at 57,642, 56,552, and 53,485. Short-term Sells : Can be considered from the idea of the seller's 6-7 or 8-9 vector on the 2-hour time frame, defending levels at 60,711 and 62,745. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
XAUUSD. Trading opportunitiesHello traders and investors! Let's see what we can trade on gold. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily time frame (TF), the price has formed a sideways movement that began on April 9th. The upper boundary is 2450.125, and the lower boundary is 2277.345. The seller’s vector 6-7 broke through the upper boundary of the sideways range, but then the seller brought the price back into the range. The current active seller’s vector is 7-8 with a potential target of 2286.83. The seller couldn't overcome the first obstacle at 2391.520 (the base of the last sub-impulse of the buyer in the buyer’s vector 6-7). As a result, a local sideways range formed near the upper boundary of the range, which is clearly visible on the 8-hour TF. Trading within this range is possible, from the upper boundary to the lower one, and vice versa. To better understand the situation, let’s look at the lower TFs. 8H Timeframe Analysis The price has formed a sideways range. The upper boundary is 2483.74, and the lower boundary is 2353.195. The current active buyer’s vector is 8-9, with a potential target of 2477.725. 4H Timeframe Analysis The price has formed a sideways range. The upper boundary is 2477.725 (this level is the target within the range on the 8-hour TF). The lower boundary is 2410.885. The current active buyer’s vector is 8-9, with a potential target of 2458.875. At the base of the 8-9 vector, a buyer’s zone (marked as a blue rectangle on the chart) has formed after engulfing the seller’s candle, which interacted with the boundary of the range on increased ( ! ) volume. Buying opportunities Buying opportunities can be considered based on the execution of buyer vectors 8-9 within the sideways movements on the 8-hour and 4-hour time frames. For example, consider buying from the buyer's zone on the 4-hour time frame, above the lower boundary of the sideways movement at 2410.885. Potential targets include: • 2458.875 (test of the seller’s zone near the upper boundary of the range on the 4-hour TF), • 2477.725 (boundary of the range on the 4-hour TF; point 7 of the range on the 8-hour TF), • 2483.74 (boundary of the range on the 8-hour TF). Selling opportunities Selling opportunities can be considered based on the execution of seller vectors 9-10 within the sideways movements on the 8-hour and 4-hour time frames, if the seller defends the 2458.875 - 2483.74 range. Potential targets include: • 2423 (test of the buyer’s zone on the 4-hour TF), • 2410.885 (lower boundary of the range on the 4-hour TF), • 2364.39 (future point 8 of the range on the 8-hour TF), • 2353.195 (lower boundary of the range on the 8-hour TF).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
SPX500, JP225, DE30. Analysis for CompetitorsHello traders and investors! Over 55,000 traders have registered for The Leap paper trading competition. The assets in the competition include SPX500, JP225, and DE30. This analysis may help in making the right decision. Weekly Timeframe Analysis: All three indices interacted on the daily timeframe with the level at the base of the last buyer's impulse on the weekly timeframe: SPX500 at 5193.1, JP225 at 36375.7, and DE30 at 17479. On Friday, when the weekly candles close, we will know the results of this interaction. Daily Timeframe Analysis: SPX500 and JP225 are in a downtrend. The start of the latest seller impulses are 5571.8 and 39090.9 respectively. JP225: Today, the price is interacting with 50% of the last seller impulse (34798.4). We are observing the seller's reaction. If the seller does not show strength, we wait for the price to interact with the weekly level 36375.7, where selling opportunities can also be found. There is currently no context for buying on the daily timeframe. SPX500: The price is still on its way to 50% of the last seller impulse (5333). Note that the 50% level of the last seller impulse (5333) almost coincides with the upper boundary of the price gap (candle from 02.08.24, its close is 5333.6). I anticipate that we will see a seller's reaction at these levels, and it is advisable to look for selling opportunities. If the seller does not show strength, the next significant resistance for the buyer's movement is 5398.6 (the minimum of the penultimate seller impulse), where selling opportunities can also be found. There is currently no context for buying on the daily timeframe. DE30: The situation is different. The price has formed a sideways movement, with the upper boundary at 18796.5 and the lower boundary at 17941. The seller in the 6-7 vector of the sideways movement has moved below the lower boundary. Note that the 50% level of the seller's impulse (17909.5) and the lower boundary of the sideways movement (17941) almost coincide. It is advisable to look for selling opportunities at these levels. There is currently no context for buying on the daily timeframe. Hourly Timeframe Analysis: JP225: On the hourly timeframe, there is an uptrend. The start of the latest buyer impulse is 32793.4. The key candle of the impulse is at its end (the candle with the highest volume in the impulse, marked on the chart "KC"). Buying opportunities can be considered from the buyer's defense of the range 34282 - 34798 or after the formation of a new buyer impulse from buyer zones within this impulse. Keep in mind that there is a downtrend on the daily timeframe. If the seller engulfs the key candle of the impulse, it will provide context for looking for selling opportunities. SPX500: The price has formed a sideways movement, with the upper boundary at 5318.9 and the lower boundary at 5198.6. The upper boundary is slightly below the daily levels (5333 and 5333.6). Within the sideways movement, it is advisable to look for selling opportunities from the upper boundary and buying opportunities from the lower boundary. Selling opportunities can be considered if the seller defends the upper boundary of the sideways movement, interacting with the daily levels. Buying opportunities can be considered from the buyer's defense of the lower boundary of the sideways movement, in the range of 5198 - 5215. Keep in mind that there is a downtrend on the daily timeframe. DE30: The buyer has not yet managed to start an uptrend on the hourly timeframe. We only see one impulse so far. The price has already interacted with 50% of the latest buyer impulse, but the buyer has not yet managed to form a new impulse (an hourly candle closing above 17569). There is no clear context for buying or selling on the hourly timeframe at the moment. If we consider the 2-hour timeframe, selling opportunities can be looked for from the upper boundary of the sideways movement in the range of 17647.6 - 17731.2. Buying opportunities can be considered after the price breaks upwards out of the sideways movement and the buyer defends this breakout. Online analysis of the daily timeframe: trend or sideways www.tradingview.com
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AlexeyWolf
TONUSDT. Looking for sales opportunityHi traders and investors! It might be time to open short positions on TON. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, the price has formed a sideways movement. The buyer's vector 4-5 has reached all its targets. Yesterday, the seller brought the price back into the range, and the daily candle closed below the upper boundary of the range at 7.675. Additionally, a seller's zone has formed at the upper boundary of the range (red rectangle on the chart). The lower boundary of the range is at 4.5983. The current seller's vector 5-6 has a potential target of 5.18. The nearest obstacles are 6.58 and 5.9777. Hourly Timeframe Analysis On the hourly timeframe, there is a downtrend. The last selling impulse started from the level of 7.5862. This level also serves as the seller's defense of the breakout from the range on the hourly timeframe (marked as RPL on the chart). Currently, the price has interacted with the 50% level of the last selling impulse (7.2243) but has not been able to overcome it so far. Selling Strategy It is reasonable to look for selling opportunities based on the idea of realizing the seller's vector 5-6 in the range on the daily timeframe. Possible levels to look for sales if defended by the seller include 7.5862 (hourly timeframe) and 7.675 (daily timeframe). Alternatively, after a new selling impulse appears on the hourly timeframe, identify the seller's areas of interest and look for selling opportunities from the defense of these areas.
Short
by AlexeyWolf
XAUUSD. The Leap. Where will the price go?Hi traders and investors! More than 13,000 traders have registered for The Leap paper trading competition. One of the assets of the competition is XAUUSD. Perhaps this analysis will help you make the right decision (the SPX500 analysis is available in the linked idea). In a related idea, XAUUSD predicted that if the buyer defends the $2378 - $2383 range, then the likelihood of the buyer reaching $2431.59 and $2450.125 will increase. The buyer has reached $2450.125, time to update the analysis. Daily Timeframe Analysis: On the daily TF, the price formed a sideways pattern, now the current seller vector is 7-8 with potential targets of $2286.83, $2277.345. The seller's vector interacted with the first obstacle of $2391.520, where the buyer won, forming a buyer's zone (blue rectangle on the chart, upper limit $2401.31). The volume of the seller's candle from July 25, which was absorbed by the buyer, is the largest in the last 3 months. Now the price has reached the upper limit of the sideways trend at $2450.125. Let's note the surge in volume on the buyer's candle from July 31 and the closing of this candle above the test of the seller's zone ($2432.065) at the upper border of the sideways band (red rectangle on the chart). Now all attention is focused on the struggle between buyer and seller for the level of $2432.065. To consider the fight, let's consider the lower TF. Hourly Timeframe Analysis: On the hourly TF, the price formed a sideways pattern near the upper bounder of the sideways trend of the daily TF. $2437.32 is the lower bounder of the sideways trend, $2458.465 is the upper bounder of the sideways trend. Selling opportunities: If the price exits the sideways trend downwards, below $2432.065, and the seller protects this exit, you can look for selling opportunities. The goal is to choose the closest one and follow the deal (monitor how the price passes the range of 2428-2419). Buying opportunities: If the buyer protects the lower border of the sidebar (up to $2432.065), you can look for buying opportunities. The goal is the upper limit of the hourly sideways trend and possibly a new ATH.  
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf