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#GBPUSD - 14 MarchI am looking for a move lower for GBPUSD yesterday on rejection off the 1.28 strong level. GBPUSD did close slightly higher but overall GBPUSD is much in a tight range yesterday and GBP is weak. Overall, it is anyone's guess what would be the next direction but regardless, trading based on the levels would work. But I would say that, I am looking for 1.28 to hold as resistance and have a move lower especially on the break of the PZ to possibly re-test Tuesday's low.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
2
#DAX - 6 MarI was looking for a move lower for DAX yesterday and we got the move (). Levels worked perfect despite the somewhat choppy movement (DAX was strong despite weakness in the US indices). The strong level below held perfectly while the level above also provide a good short during the US session and mentioned in the group chat. If I look at the daily candle, price action still looks bearish and toppish to me. I am still in the opinion of weakness in DAX for today. Currently DAX is rather strong; so I am not surprised if DAX test the 17743, form a double top but come down lower, with 17657 as first target and further down to 17565. If I am right on the down move today, I would think the magnitude of down move will not be as significant as that of yesterday. But do note that Powell will be speaking today. Not sure what he will say, but IMO market is bulled up for rate cuts. If Powell say something about not cutting rates, that will be bad news IMO. Looking for a bounce off the 17565 level, but if break, strong levels below would be 17479 and 17417.
OANDA:DE30EUR
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 5 MarYesterday I was looking for EURUSD to test first resistance at 1.0857 which is the level to watch for a possible rejection for a lower high, or a move higher. Indeed, 1.0857 worked good for a 15 pips sell off the level. However, after a double re-test, EURUSD moved higher. Still it would be a breakeven or a small profitable trade. EURUSD closed green which looked to be more bullish than bearish. But from current looks, EURUSD is still much in range and it hit the highs yesterday, formed what could be a double top given the rejection. I would look for price to keep below OP 1.0855 for a possible down move to 1.0833 before further upside. 1.0833 is key level to watch; a break below 1.0833, and a daily close below this key level could bring further downside.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#DAX - 4 MarOn Friday we saw a change in the strength of DAX as it hit new ATH but came down after while US indices was stronger and rallied to ATH after. Some rotation that is, given how DAX was rallying the days prior, while US indices, especially on Thursday, dipped and recovered, setting up for the continuation on Friday. DAX I gave a long from bottom of PZ but DAX hit the mid of PZ and recovered 70points. Price is opening at the PZ now. Overall we can see weekly price action is bullish so could see further upside this week, but I am not discounting a possible pullback first. A pullback to 17459 will still not change the trend. Daily wise, bearish divergence so could be sign for a pullback. Could do a short below 17753 PZ, or wait for the longs after a pullback. Target for short would beg to 17629/47 which is a strong level, and would give an opportunity to look for longs for a move higher. If market continue to go up from here, I would like to take a counter trend short at 17845 back to PZ.
OANDA:DE30EUR
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 2 FebI was bullish EURUSD yesterday on the divergence which worked well, not perfectly. Initial long on holding of strong level did not work; the second long off the support below almost exactly held the low, before the rally. Rather huge rally, going to the highs, but still below Wednesday's high. Lots of levels above, 1.0885 strong level, 1.0865 strong level below, which could be holding. So price is stuck between two strong levels. I see a possible pullback before further up. Possible move would be price take out 1.0885 on a fake breakout, but get rejected for a down move to 1.0826 and 1.0810 which would be a good level to go long from to target 1.0885 and 1.0905. Reason for the pullback is the bearish divergence. No need to trade the pullback; can wait for it to happe and go long.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD 02012024On Friday, I was looking for a move higher to the strong resistance before a down move but instead, market was sideways before it moved down further. Monthly price action is bullish, while weekly price action is neutral and indicating a possible turn, while daily is slightly bearish. Daily trend is still up though. Likely price would want to go down further before a turn and thus I would look at 1.1021, near the bottom of the BZ for a possible dip and rally (BZ to save the day again) to 1.1061. A close above 1.1061 will likely be followed by a move higher tomorrow, with 1.1115 as next target.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#DAX - 2 Jan I gave a short from 16803 on Friday to 16721 (). 16803 was traded, highs at 16811 before it tanked to 16723 and it rallied back to the highs. The sell down was tied to the down move in US indices before the recovery. DAX was relatively strongly. Overall, price action is bullish for monthly, weekly, daily IMO. Currently DAX gapped up and is testing above resistance. Despite the down move on Friday, overall price action is still bullish, trend is still up, thus looking for further upside. 16775, confluence of levels will be a good level to look for longs, targeting 16865 and 16905.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by FadeMeIfYouCan
25102023 - #GBPUSDThe short limit I gave yesterday () worked to perfection as GBPUSD crashed from double resistance all the way down to the support zone, over 130 pips. This, at the same time, DXY went from support below to resistance above. What I am giving today would, I say, be a countertrend move given yesterday's bearish selling. But GBPUSD at support. Looking for a possible retest of lows, failed false break down and a pullback for today, with 1.2220 and 1.2248 as targets.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
20102023 - #SPX4340 level given yesterday () marked the exact high and market sold off over 70 points from it. But that was not before some big whipsaw in between. Price hit the strong 4262 level with Fib and is overextended but price action is bearish. Can market give a pullback today? It might be prudent to wait for the pullback to go short rather than trade the pullback. 4306/4320 will be 2 good levels to watch for rejection for the pullback down. If I were to go long, it would be if price test 4262 or if it sell off further to 4246 and form a reversal candle to go long, targeting 4306.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
19102023 - #SPXI was looking for a move higher for SPX yesterday, based on the move on Tuesday, as I said to watch 4360 and to go long on the break of the PZ. Instead, PZ held the highs , twice, below 4360 break and market came down. 4332 was the next strong support and did provide yet another bounce but market tanked further on rising yields. Yesterday's sell is strong, despite many attempts to rally. I was thinking if the dip down and recovery could be a low but IMO, better to look for shorts, and 4340 will be the level I look at (PZ with Fib) for a possible move lower.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
18102023 - #SPXYesterday I was bullish SPX but was looking for a long off strong level 4360 but of course market has other ideas, as yields went up, NDX was weak, but I said 14950 NDX as support, if we get a turn look to long SPX at 4340. And that was the lows for the day as SPX rallied to highs, over 50 points but eventually ran out of steam and closed half way. Overall, I would say that market is in consolidation, with highs made last Thursday not penetrated, while it does look like it wants to go down but is bought up. Price action for yesterday is neutral, while price opened above the zones, which is more bullish. Ideally the bullish H4 candle given yesterday should cap the lows and price is again back to the key 4360 level, which is also at where BZ is. Looking for SPX to base at 4360 and break higher. The safer trade will be for price to go above 4372 PZ and then go long with stops at recent low.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
17102023 - #SPXYesterday () I said that despite the bearish price action etc, market gapped up instead of down which is a sign of bullishness. Also I said that market should move to 4360. It was much sideways before that though (unlike DAX) and even had a dip during European session, which was bought up. This is another sign of bullishness (that bears try to bring price down but failed). Eventually thus, we see 4360 and instead of the dip I said we will see, we got the rally up (as bulls are in control) and we moved higher. Also, IMO what is important to note, is, the data was at 830am EST and market did not dip further on it, thus there was no other 4360 proved to be an important level and price ranged and dipped to that level before it was bought up again to end the day. So what is it for today? Price action is bullish with price above the zones. Only concern is how steep this recovery is. But overall, I am looking for a move higher with 4424 as a magnet.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
16102023 - #SPXOn Friday, I gave a long 4340 for a move to higher and a short 4380 for a move down () . Both trades would have worked out; though eventually, it was the bears who won. As mentioned in my NDX plan, should not have faded the bearish price action of Thursday; as in, probability of a bearish continuation is higher than that of a reversal back up. Weekly price action, however, to me, is still neutral to bullish (green weekly candle, and I have seen times when price just opened and go higher). Also, despite the bearish news over the weekend, market instead gap up instead of gap down. Thus Friday's down move could partly be due to options. Overall IMO, price are above the zones (PZ and DBZ) and within the WBZ and MBZ. If anything, 4360 (previous strong support) would be the level to watch. IMO could see that level trade before market gives a rejection for a move lower, or, possibly, a recovery.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
13102023 - #SPXYesterday I was bias long for a move higher as a continuation of Wednesday's bullish price action. But did not get it. Price was capped most of the time by the 4406 strong resistance and it sold off on the US CPI. 4362 was the level I gave for a buy. It did give a 20 points bounce but only temporary before market sold off further. Not a data analyst or a fundamental analyst but the 3.7% CPI data is higher than expectation (3.6%) but 0.1% IMO is insignificant, though the more pertinent issue might be CPI is increasing. But the more important question now is, how will the week end? Is it the start of next leg down? Yesterday's price action is bearish but market did make quite a recovery. Question also is that is the low A long wick, as mentioned before, often see a revisit of the wick (of the low that is). But probably a good thing to note is, price closed above the DBZ, which is, by definition, bullish. Thus overall, it is neutral. For today, IMO, better to trade later than earlier. Price has opened and is attacking the PZ, as resistance above and the DBZ as support below. We are approaching 4360 or so, which yesterday I said is a buy zone and now will act as resistance. IMO, if market move higher first, could look for an opportunity to go short, but IMO 4380 will be the better price to go short. And if from here, market is rejected by the PZ and goes down first, 4340 would likely be the level to watch for a bounce, make a higher low and actually for price to go higher from here. All will likely depends on how price move during European session. If you look at the weekly candle now however, IMO, I will not be looking for it to close red (possibly but unlikely). Closing at current price or even higher seems more likely IMO.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
12102023 - #SPXI am bullish SPX yesterday; it was somehow a choppy move but the direction is clear. You could short it and make money (of course) but the direction is much clear. And if you look at the levels provided yesterday (); it was another perfect move. Market initially based at the PZ as per arrow given, rallied almost 20 points to top of WBZ, then weakened and pulled back. But if you noticed how DAX made such a minor pullback (made higher low) you know the weakness is nothing. And market rallied to highs after the FOMC minutes were released. My near term target is clear and still remains. But anyway, so price action is bullish and trend is up. Be bullish until proven otherwise. US CPI today, would likely be market moving. PPI yesterday was hot, thus expect CPI to be similar. I am not sure how the market will move or react but IMO, direction is still up. If market dip on CPI, look at 4366 to go for a good long up. If instead, market just base above PZ before CPI and rallied straight, 4430/40 will be the price target and expect a strong pullback from there.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
11102023 - #SPXI was bullish yesterday () without doubt; but the question was, if market is going to give a dip first. But when US session opened, when price was much sideways, I said in the group, bias is to the upside. I also called the move up at 945am EST and we got a 50points rally! At 1145am EST I said short NDX on resistance and that was the top as SPX also collapsed. My target for SPX was 4396 as shared yesterday but as NDX hit the resistance and stalled, I flipped short. Anyway, I also said to be careful when price approached 4360 resistance but price is accepted above it and we got the next move up. Now price is back to this level, which would act as support. Of course, the question would be, if the sell down yesterday was a top. That is of course a possibility but IMO it is not as price action on daily does not point to anything bearish and also price is above the zones. I do note that we have US PPI today which could move the market but overall we are bullish till it is not. I will not be surprised if market just chop till US PPI where the real move come. Regardless 4428 is, to me a possible magnet for now; thus looking for price to hold PZ for a move higher.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
10102023 - #SPXAs mentioned yesterday () and as perfectly played out, market gapped down on bad news was a perfect buying opportunity and SPX eventually closed green at the highs. Price action was so clean, with price just consolidating for the whole Asian and European session, only for the huge rally to start in US session; with PZ holding the lows (and the same time NDX PZ also held the lows) before the start of the rally. It should be noted that US bond market was closed yesterday. Is that a fake rally? IMO regardless price action is pointing to further upside, until it is not. And for now, we can see how market rallied and is going higher. Somewhat a euphoric state. TBH, I would prefer if price consolidate first, or even pullback (to 4316) before the next up move. This is a case of, if you are in position, you just hold it and ride it. But if you are not, going long here now would require tight stops. From the current rally, it would be more likely that price goes to 4360 first (which was my price target given yesterday!). And given that steepness of the move thus far (and the strength of that resistance), I will be cautious of a pullback from there. I would likely not take the shorts, but just wait for the pullback (possibly to 4330 or so) for a move higher. Overall, from current looks, price action looks strong and some what euphoric. Wednesday 11 Oct is US PPI. Will not be surprised if price just rally up to 4396 strong resistance then market make a big pullback from there on PPI news (reversal or not will remains to be seen).
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
09102023 - #SPXI was bullish SPX on Friday () and as it played out, market rallied initially, giving good profits. NFP gave the huge sell off, which took out some profits but gave the opportunity to go long at a better price lower at support. We got the 120points rally, hitting where my arrow is. Price target is good enough to look for opposite trades; and amazingly, market opened gapped down today by 30points (50 points from my target). On weekly, market formed a pin bar which is a bullish candle IMO. Price is still below the WBZ and MBZ but IMO, bulls in control. Friday's candle is also bullish and yes we had what seemed like negative news (war) but IMO impact will not be big. Could get another dip down during European session - on fears, and more to suck in bears but looking for a move higher.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
06102023 - #SPXI was bullish SPX yesterday, looking for a bullish continuation of Wednesday's up. However, market has other views. Market was practically ranging between DBZ above and PZ below, before making a fake breakdown then closing up. However, price is still unable to close within/above the DBZ. In terms of price action, I would say that daily candle is neutral/bearish (bearish as it looked a hanging man), capped by DBZ while PZ below acting as support. I see yesterday's move as a pullback to kill late bulls before further up (today). And if my thesis is right, the up move should come early in the day - Asian/European session. NFP today, and that would be market moving. I am overall still of a view of a green close; if market goes down first before NFP, looking for an up move. But of course, if market already moved prior to NFP, just trail stops and let it ride.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
26072023 - #USDJPYYesterday was another pullback day for USDJPY as price consolidate for the bigger move which could happen today with FOMC later at night. Again I was looking for an early move up during Asian session but when that did not happen, the converse happen; a pullback. Still, we saw the spike during US session which cleared the highs before crashing back down. One thing is telling is that, despite DXY going up so much during European session, USDJPY did not move up, showing JPY strength. And thus when DXY pulled back, you know what happens. Price is now within the zones, capped by the PZ and just bounced off BZ. We had a slow up move. Will it continue? I think it will depends on the AU news happening at 930 which could move FX. If you had seen my message in the group, AUD is at my sell level now (AUD is bullish despite weakness in EUR and GBP). Anyway, so, I am still bullish DXY IMO but will need to see how USDJPY might intact, and add on the break of PZ for the move to the target. Overall, am looking for at most a slight pullback then up move, if this buy thesis is still intact. It is intact still (in terms of price action) unless proven otherwise.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan