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#EURUSD - 19 JanYesterday I am bullish EURUSD; I am looking for a down move to PZ for a long for a move higher. I said based on price action, Wednesday's candle point to a near term low for a move higher. What we saw interestingly is price hit the strong level (target for longs) given on Wednesday () and got rejected by it perfectly. However, price did not base at BZ, but went to the lower level before finding support and started to move up. I would admit that he move for EURUSD today is not clear. EURUSD continued to be weak, unlike GBPUSD which showed lots of strength yesterday. However, despite yesterday's rejection, the low on Wednesday is still intact thus market can well move up from here. And we see a bullish move currently. Would not want to chase it but I see a rejection off BZ (1.0894) will be good for a retest of 1.0864 and to look for longs there. A break of 1.0846 though, could see EURUSD going down to 1.0816 and 1.0794.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 18 JanEURUSD was much sideways yesterday, I was looking for an up move from strong support, rejection before further down but EURUSD came down hit the support level below before going up, especially with GBPUSD CPI hot. Though it is sideways, on daily it formed a possible reversal candle and we see price going up further in Asian now. Looking for a possible dip to 1.0865 strong level confluence with PZ for a move higher to target 1.0937. Overall daily price action point to a possible move higher.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#GBPUSD - 17012024Similar to EURUSD, GBPUSD opened below PZ and a key level and sold off. I did call for a bounce at the next strong level at 1.2686 and there was a reaction but it eventually faltered and went down to 1.2624 next strong level before a 45 pips rally but still, it came down again back to the same 1.2624 level. Strong sell yesterday and so price action is bearish, trend has turned down, thus look for downside today. That could be on the break of 1.2624 (now 1.2636). If not, I see a possible retracement to 1.2680/1.2686 - previous strong level, which would be a good level to go short from to target 1.2546 - next strong level below.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 17012024EURUSD opened and sold down after Monday's close below a key support. The supports given gave a bounce but it came down further. I also gave 1.0906 as a level to go long but that broke as well and it sold off to 1.0864, next key support and bounced 20 pips from it nicely. Price action is bearish, trend is down (it was up yesterday so looking for upside yesterday is not wrong). Given that price bounced off 1.0864, look for a move up to 1.0906 before shorts. If price is accepted above 1.0908, look for longs to 1.0954.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#GBPUSD - 16/01/2024Yesterday I was more bullish GBPUSD. I said once 1.2752 is reclaimed expect further upside. Would not lie that we did see a fake close above before closing below. But if you see the levels, 1.2735 is the next strong level I gave. It went below that and we see two rejections off the level before it closed for the day. If based on yesterday's candle itself, it is bearish but trend is up so likely I would have played both directions (though this morning it opened at the PZ and started coming down, which is a potential short, on hindsight of course). But what I want to say here, which is different from that of EURUSD, but yet similar, because on EURUSD price is now at a level also. GBPUSD is now at a strong level, this confluence of levels (GBPUSD and EURUSD) is a strong buy IMO. So here for GBPUSD I said it is a long. And if price can go back to 1.2737, look for further upside above. Unlike for EURUSD I am more cautious on downside.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 16/01/2024I was also bullish EURUSD yesterday and said that if 1.0966 is breached expect a huge move up. 1.0966 turned out to be the exact highs as price is rejected by it. EURUSD actually closed with a doji but just below the 1.0954 strong level and this morning, it sold off down, on what I understand is news of Iran missiles hitting US consulate. Not sure the extent and accuracy of the news but volatility is expected. If based on yesterday's candle, price action is mixed, while trend is neutral to bullish and I would said long. But given current bearish price action, going long would need to be cautious. Of course, if market could be reacting more than is necessary and we can see the whole move retrace and even go higher. But cautious is warranted. Given that the sell has started and if we want to get into the move, it would be wait for break of level to go short and put the stops above. Price is at 1.0917 level though. If the news is not as serious as it is, holding this 1.0917 level will be a long back to 1.0954 and in such a situation, I think can expect this to be just a way to hunt stops and market rally higher. 1.0896 will be the next level to watch (target for shorts). I would look to go long from here.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 15012024I was wrong on the lows of EURUSD on Friday. I was expecting a bounce off the weekly level but it hit lower to the next support before a huge move back to the highs, then cool off towards end of day. It is supported by the WBZ, weekly price action is neutral to bullish while daily price action is bearish. I said many times GBPUSD is stronger than EURUSD now and a better long. But still for EURUSD, as long as price get over 1.0966, expect quick move up to 1.0996 and 1.1044 within two days.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#GBPUSD - 12012024I gave a long for GBPUSD from 1.2700 and it hit perfectly and we had a 80 pips rally. Unlike for EURUSD which was weaker and price action looks quite unclear, GBPUSD IMO is of clear strength. And as mentioned, despite USD strengthening on CPI release, the whole move was retraced. Price action for GBPUSD is bullish and PZ and BZ are acting as double support below. Looking for further upside, a dip to 1.2734 would be a gift to go long for a move to 1.2838 and 1.2858.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 12012024EURUSD moved as per levels given yesterday. 1.0990 held like a rock and it sold down from that level to my buy level at 1.0940 before rebounding almost 40 pips. Price action is neutral to slight bullish but trend is up. EURUSD came down on hotter CPI data which means USD will not cut rates. But what is surprising is that the whole move is retraced, even though indices did also retrace the selling, it was stopped near the 78 Fib. What's next for today? If I were to look at indices and FX together, I would say that if sell is to come, it would be now (at the 78 Fib), which for FX, would means a double top and down it goes. But IMO that is not evident here. In a way, I would say it is 60-40, but my hunch say goes for the 60% - up. Price is now above the confluence of BZ and PZ, that holds and we move up. But again Asian session is usually sideways. I would give it more room for a move down to 1.0954 (add on) for a move to target 1.1000 and 1.1032.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#GBPUSD - 11012024Path given for GBPUSD yesterday worked perfectly as it hit the strong support and went up 70 pips to perfection. Bullish GBPUSD and trend is up but as mentioned, it is CPI day today. Overall, GBPUSD looks poised for a move higher. Would like to have a dip to go long for the move higher. Not sure when the dip will come; a dip during European session would be great, or it can come on CPI reaction; that is price range from now till CPI then it dipped before rallying strongly. 1.2718 and 1.2700 (can possibly trade too and it is a strong double support; low risk level to go long from) are two levels to look for this possible dip target and rally, targeting 1.2790 and if stretched, 1.2820, where we should get a pullback.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 11012024Yesterday I was neutral on the direction of EURUSD but I was bullish GBPUSD. I said 1.0954 is a strong resistance and if it goes up first, look for a possible rejection down. Indeed 1.0954 was hit perfectly and it came down 20 pips, found support at PZ and rallied higher. What's the clue? The clue was strength in GBPUSD, hitting my buy limit and rallied over 50 pips. Watch for confluence. But anyway, IMO EURUSD is now bullish in terms of price action and trend. IMO should see further upside for today. Of course, it is CPI day so anything can happen. Overall, as mentioned, a pullback would likely be a gift to fuel further upside. Watching the move down back to 1.0954 or further down to 1.0940 to find support and a move higher to 1.1032 or 1.1004
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#GBPUSD - 09012024GBPUSD dipped down to the previous double support and rallied to close near Friday's high. Double top? I see it as a sign of strength for further upside; bullish price action and trend is up. Plan for today; similar to what I provided for EURUSD, will not discount the possibility of yet another dip to re-test 1.2700 before a rally higher. But IMO, I would like to see the first scenario, that is, a minor dip to 1.2724 lowest, before the move higher to 1.2824 and 1.2862.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 10012024Yesterday I was of a move higher but warned of the double resistance present, thus market could give a deeper down move first. Indeed, the strong level is the actual high and market came down over 60 pips before rebounding. Price action and trend turned bearish with yesterday's down move. I am though, somewhat neutral of the move. Following the trend and price action, we are looking for a move lower. If price is to go significantly lower, I would like to see price re-test 1.0956 yesterday's high and strong resistance given yesterday, with a rejection and a move lower, while if market goes down from here (PZ), I would watch 1.0906, also yesterday's low for a possible double bottom to go long to target 1.0956 (yesterday's high and strong resistance) and then watch the reaction there for the next move.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 09012024I called for a move higher for EURUSD yesterday but it was just a messy sideways move (though we ended higher) unlike the clean up move for indices. 1.0966 continue to be a strong resistance with BZ holding any rallies. Time for shorts? I might have called for shorts if GBPUSD was not strong. Of course they are still two different currencies but they usually move together. I would say for EURUSD, price action is neutral to bullish, while trend wise, it is slight bearish. If indices and currencies are to move together then I would go for a pullback and a move higher for today. Two possible moves; market gave a final dip fake down to re-test yesterday's low at 1.09226, look for a long to target 1.0978 and 1.110, or, price base around 1.0954 and 1.0966 two strong levels. Not able to go up means expect a break higher to 1.10 and 1.1034.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#GBPUSD - 08012024Similar to EURUSD, GBPUSD came down first before the huge rally. As mentioned on Friday, GBPUSD was much stronger than EURUSD and it could be shown from the move on Friday. On weekly candle, price action is neutral and daily price action is bullish, and unlike EURUSD, GBPUSD is above its DBZ, trend is up. Looking for further upside for today. Much support below, thus looking for 1.2686 to hold for a move to 1.2790 and 1.2860. Overall, looking for a move higher into CPI.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 08012024On Friday I was cautiously bullish for a move higher based on the bullish price action on Thursday. I was however, expecting a minor pullback before the up move but NFP provided a huge dip (it was going down prior) to my monthly BZ before the 120pips rally to my target. Price is still below the DBZ but IMO Friday's move was much bullish and though trend is still down, I am still bullish for a move higher. Ideally, I am looking for PZ 1.0938 to hold for a move to 1.0966 then 1.100. A daily close above 1.0966 will confirm the change in trend and a move higher in the next couple of days (as per my view on indices) before caution for CPI on Thursday.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 05012024Yesterday's levels worked great (); I gave a strong resistance level and it broke and got the up move as given, before a rejection down from the BZ back to the breakout level and got the bounce. Price action turned slightly bullish but trend is still down. I would like to have a good dip to look for longs and 1.0930 would be a good level to do so. But in this case, given that price is in consolidation now, 1.0944 would be the level to watch. If price can just base here, look for a bullish candle to go long to target 1.0966, 1.0984 and 1.100.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#DAX - 03 JanI was wrong in the direction yesterday. DAX did rally from opening to my target, it hit higher resistance before faltering. I said NDX had a strong resistance and it held completely. Interestingly, DJIA held the selling and see the recovery in DAX towards the half way but NDX is weak. Price action is neutral to bearish and price opened within the BZ. I would say can play both sides today. Market would need to retest the lows before any recovery IMO. So IMO, I will look at 16823 for a possible short to re-test 16677. 16645 is the next support for a possible long for a near term low. Overall, I am still neutral of the whole move (from bullish)
OANDA:DE30EUR
by FadeMeIfYouCan