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#GBPUSD - 11122023The plan for GBPUSD worked better on Friday. I was bullish GBPUSD also, for a higher low than a move higher. I was looking for price to reject the BZ for a move to the support below before the up. Indeed, market came down initially, to the first support and rallied to the top of the PZ for 30 pips, before it moved lower, but found support and recovered half way. This morning, GBPUSD gapped down 20 pips but has since moved higher. I will be patient with the FX pairs today. Overall price action is bearish on Friday and trend is down. But I will only be interested in short from 1.2590-60 resistance zone for a move to 1.2554 (PZ), 1.2530 (WBZ) and 1.2500 (Friday's low). If however, 1.2500 trades first, similar to EURUSD, I would like to look for a possible double bottom to go long to target 1.2580 and this would likely be a near term low for a move higher.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 11122023On Friday, I was looking for a possible higher low and a move higher for EURUSD but was strong as price w as capped by previous strong resistance level and it sold down on NFP to a strong double support and rebounded rather strongly. But given that Friday's price action is bearish and trend is still down (until we get a close above BZ), would look for further downside. For today 1.0794-1.0800 will be the zone to look for a possible rejection candle to target Friday's low. If however, market came down to 1.0722 (Friday's low) first, I would like to see a possible double bottom formation for the long to target 1.0800, and looking for a possible near term bottom.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#GBPUSD - 08122023The level to go short from (in view of Wednesday's bearish price action and down trend) yesterday () gave a good 40 pips down move. However it did not hit the lower support level but instead, market made a double bottom and moved higher, almost back to Wednesday's high. Also, GBPUSD looked to have broken out from the down sloping channel, which signify a change in the trend, to the upside. Bullish price action though price still close below the BZ. Both directions are playable, though I am inclined towards the upside. From current price, we can see that it is stuck between the PZ and BZ. Market might give a dip but IMO 1.2554 would be the level to watch for a bullish reversal candle to go long, targeting 1.2600, 1.2622 and 1.2652.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
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#GBPUSD - 07122023Similar to EURUSD, yesterday the PZ held the upmove and market came down nicely to the level below (). And as per what I wrote for EURUSD, GBPUSD also had many days of red. Will we see a green? Overall price action is still bearish and trend is down so expect further down until we get a daily close above 1.2600. If market is do give a reversal candle, IMO, it will go lower and reverse sharply. Will watch 1.2536 for a possible reaction to go long, but this is only as a counter trend trade, stay nimble. Else would be to patiently wait for 1.2590 to trade and go short for a move lower. Next strong support below would be 1.2484.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#EURUSD - 07122023Yesterday, following the trend and price action was a short. The PZ held the recovery totally and it eventually went lower during US session while indices came down. Price closed nicely at the first target given (). What's next for today? Given the many days of selling, will we get a recovery? IMO if we are to get a reversal candle today, it should be after a move lower then a sharp rebound. Looking at 1.0748 for such an up move. Price can consolidate at current levels, just below PZ and break lower, but if market move up, 1.0802 will be there level to try a short for the move down.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
#GBPUSD - 05122023Yesterday, I was bearish GBPUSD () but TBH, I was expecting more strength from GBPUSD; but it turned out to be rather weak, as given, it sold back to Friday's low and bottom of the BZ, before bouncing nicely up to about the 50%. Price action is bearish but price is still within the BZ. Playing both direction is possible today. I would like to be long as long as yesterday's low (1.2610) holds, for a move to 1.2666 and 1.2680 before looking for short opportunities from higher. If not, a break below 1.2600 would be another scenario to look for shorts below the break. Overall, I am looking for a move higher.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
24102023 - #NDXYesterday I gave 2 sell limits (). I would say that the bulls probably won it but the 14760 short level still worked well as it hit and market pulled back over 100 points. Overall, price action looks bullish, with what looked like a reversal candle on daily. Price, however, is still below the DBZ, thus need to be nimble on longs. However, IMO bond yields seemed to have topped (for now at least), thus we could get another leg up. Ideally, we want market to make a higher low (thus not discounting a possible down move first). No longs below PZ 14584, but if price dip to 14464 level, look for a possible bounce and that could bring price back up. Overall, looking for a long to 14776 and 14864, with a max upside of 14942.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
24102023 - #DAXYesterday's levels worked well as market dipped off PZ, dropped to the support zone below before rallying back to the PZ. But there was a pullback again towards the end of the day. Are we going to see a repeat of last Tuesday? Price is still below the BZ thus, cautious on the up move. Ideally, from current looks, we would want market to make a higher low (it could test the lows and rebound). Lots of news today from UK, Europe and US thus it would decide this next move. But anyway, IMO, I would try a long if price goes back above PZ 14748 for a move to 14860 (50 Fib) and 14954 (possible high for today).
OANDA:DE30EUR
by FadeMeIfYouCan
23102023 - #GBPUSDFriday, market tested Thursday's low and bounced strongly to close the day at the highs. Weekly wise, GBPUSD posted a green close. Could a near term low be in? Price opened above the PZ but below the DBZ, thus trend wise is neutral. I would say that, given the bullish price action on Friday and also price above the PZ, could see a break higher, but at the same time, the BZ is pointing to a possible rejection from above. So, I probably want to trade this later than earlier. Watch 1.2192 (previous high); a rejection off there could set for another down move to test Friday's low. But if price dips first, look at 1.2114 for a reversal candle to go long for a move back to the highs. IMO I will like to see the dip then rally.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
20102023 - #GBPUSDYesterday's () level worked well. I said I was more biased short but asked only to short at 1.2180/88. Market came down rather slowly, rallied back to OP and failed, hitting the lower support level at 1.2090 before giving a rally of 100 pips to 1.2190 which is our sell limit before it came down 60 pips. Daily candle closed with a doji which signify indecision. What is probably interesting is the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) was weak against USD, but EUR was up strongly. With GBPUSD with a doji, what is the next direction. With price below the BZ, I will go with a move lower. Price is now below PZ, but I will like to look for a spike and rejection off 1.2176 max for a move to 1.2090 and even 1.2066.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
19102023 - #GBPUSDI was looking for a move up yesterday from 1.2150 or so. It slightly missed the buy limit before market rallied to 1.22 strong resistance (on hot UK CPI data) but eventually faltered. Market formed an inside bar yesterday and is still in a range actually. Need a clear break to confirm direction, thus I would say need to be cautious. Overall, it is still unclear whether the lows of 4 October is the near term low, or is the bearish reversal candle of 12 October the highs for the next leg down. Yesterday's price action is bearish and below the zones. IMO, I would wait to see how Europe session react. Ideally, I am looking for price to trade to 1.2180/88 and rejected before looking a possible short.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
180102023 - #GBPUSDYesterday I was bullish GBPUSD based on the price action on Monday and near term trend being up. Was looking for a dip for a move higher. I will not dare say that I am right on my view, as price dipped beyond my buy level and went down further, but eventually rallied strongly 70 pips from the lows. But even so, it only made a lower high, before cooling off and now is near the half point mark. Such a move yesterday does open the question if Monday's bullish price action is just a pullback before further down or is it a near term low. IMO yesterday's move was a neutral to slightly bearish price action. Price opened between BZ and PZ thus it is neutral. Overall, not so clear but I would like to go with the bullish thesis and thus to look for a move higher, with a bounce off 1.2150 or so, with a max low at yesterday's low at 1.2130. The safer trade will be to let price goes back above 1.2180 to go long with stops at recent low.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
13102023 - #GBPUSDI was wrong on the move for GBPUSD yesterday for a move higher based on the price action and trend. 1.2340 was strong resistance given on Wednesday. And that level held and eventually sold off when it is unable to go above it. Market was sideways and after the UK data, which was neutral to bearish, market came down slightly and continued to range before the sell off on US CPI. This sell off, is likely due to market thinking that the hot CPI would likely result in Fed hiking rates/not cut so fast. But if that is really so, is that 0.1% increase significant? But anyway, so we had a trend day yesterday down to strong support below. Price action is bearish as it negates the up move of the past 3 days and what looked like a bullish weekly candle has turned red! also price are below the zones which again points to a down trend. Further downside for today? TBH IMO I will be cautious on shorts. Firstly, CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% expectation is not much of a difference. Does it warrant such a sell off? Also from weekly price action, last week reversal candle point to an up move this week. Of course we got the up (before this sell) but IMO, we should be looking for a green close today. Also price sold off perfectly to this 1.2176 support. So, yes, this would be a counter trend move but IMO from here, I am looking for market to move up to 1.2256 at least, and possibly to 1.2290 before we might see any meaningful pullback. This is well a counter trend move but I will not be hurried to short from here.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
12102023 - #GBPUSDYesterday () I gave a resistance zone and called for a dip below then rally. That worked well, as market came down first, nicely to PZ; found support and rallied up on PPI news, into resistance, came down again back to PZ and eventually closed near the highs (after the FOMC minutes). GBPUSD has 7 days of up move. Without doubt, momentum is slowing down. Today is US CPI. Based on yesterday's hot PPI data, it would not be unexpected if US CPI is hot. But again, market does not seem to care about it. But anyway, technical wise, IMO, price action shows consolidation, which is neutral to bullish. Unless there is a change, it is bullish unless proven otherwise. Also, price are above the zones. I have no idea how the CPI will turn out but IMO, a dip is an opportunity to go long for a move higher. 1.2260 is such a level to go long for a move to 1.2400, while if market rallied to 1.2390-2400 on CPI. Look for a short down. That could well be a near term top for a good pullback. But before US CPI, we have UK GDP earlier. That should already move the market (above applies).
by FadeMeIfYouCan
09102023 - #GBPUSDI was bullish on GBPUSD for Friday (); it made a nice up move initially as per levels; nicely hitting the level then sold off for NFP; down to below strong support, killing the stops, before a 150pips rally. The sell off is a reaction to the above expectation NFP which is negative for the markets but obviously the market think the data is crap and thus the rally. And price nicely stalled at the resistance and start to go down slowly. Overall the weekends, some negative news happened and market gapped down over 40 pips to the DBZ but has since recovered 20 pips. Where next? Weekly price action IMO is bullish, pointing to a near term low. Friday's price action is bullish also and today's gap down seem to be a normal pullback. Of course, it is too early to tell the full impact of the news. So European session should give a better idea. But overall, based on price action, looking for a possible move lower first, likely on fear and also to create a fake impression of something major and suck in the late bears but market to recover strongly after.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
06102023 - #GBPUSDI was bullish GBPUSD yesterday and the path I gave played out almost exactly () as market pulled back before hitting the 1st resistance and held there. But IMO what is weird is how GBPUSD ranged the whole day, only to move in US session, at the time where it is usually slow. Anyway so price is now at the key resistance level. Price action is bullish and price are above the zones; thus looking for a pullback within the double PZ DBZ zone, find support and rally higher to 1.2254/80. NFP today though, so market might be muted till NFP. Trade safe.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
05102023 - #DAXMarket made a nice bullish reversal candle yesterday when all are bearish, and this was as per plan (). IMO, price action is bullish vs price is still below the DBZ. But I would go for the move higher from here. Looking for PZ to hold and a move to target 15320. I will not discount the possibility of price reacting against the DBZ and a down move first (to 15002) but overall, looking for a move to 15236 minimally and 15320 likely, before any strong reaction from sellers.
OANDA:DE30EUR
by FadeMeIfYouCan
05102023 - #GBPUSDMarket made a nice move according to the plan given yesterday () as it hit the 1.2032 level and rallied over 150pips or so. There was a dip after the top for 50 pips or so which is rather significant but market recovered. Price action is bullish but price is still below the BZ. Just a pullback or a trend reversal? I have seen instances where market reversed the next day (bullish price action vs below BZ). Will today be a day? Given the magnitude of the move down, and also bullish divergence on daily, I would like suggest a further up move. Look for PZ to hold for a move higher with 1.2194 then 1.2280 as the price target.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
03102023 - #DAXI was bearish DAX yesterday () despite the opening gap up and it played out well; market played out almost as per the path, coming down to bottom of PZ, rallied up to above double resistance before a sell down. Probably, what is somewhat surprising is that, despite the up move in SPX (led by NDX, DJIA was weak) DAX was much weak too. Overall, I would say that DAX is weak. And if we are looking at price action, what happened is, price sold off rather deeply, hit the bottom of the Bollinger Band for days, then found support, rallied for 1-2 days, found sellers and sold back down, with space now for further down side. But again, I would say that the speed of the sell down is a bit too steep; yesterday's down move brought price directly back to the bottom of the Bollinger Band again, in which, having another bounce is not surprising. And also, one thing to note is, sellers have yet been able to bring DAX below last week's low though. For today, if following the trend, I would say to continue to look for downside with bearish price action and the zones above as resistance. 15282 should be a good max level to look for short for a move to 14986 strong support and 14900. If 14900 trades, will be glad to look for longs for a good bounce.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by FadeMeIfYouCan