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28092023 - #GBPUSDI was bearish GBPUSD yesterday () and market played out exactly in the direction. I was looking for a short off 1.2171; market hit 1.2163 at PZ, and sold down to 1.211 for a good 50 pips fore rebound. What is it for today? On daily, I would say that price action is nothing bullish but on H4 it looks to be turning. 1.2105 was my target and we hit 1.211 and turned. So IMO today could be an up day. A pullback to 1.2123 will be good for a long to target 1.2171 and 1.2181. Any further upside will be a bonus.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
29082023 - #GBPUSDOn Friday, I said to look for a pullback in GBPUSD after a move higher (). The turning point I gave almost marked the highs while the target I have at 1.2550 capped the lows. Yesterday market moved higher, dipped but moved back the highs. Near term, DXY seemed to have found a top (bottom for GBPUSD). Today, UK is back from the holidays yesterday thus expect some extra volatility, while there are some high impact US news which should point to the next direction for the markets. Overall we can see that price is supported by the PZ and MBZ and capped by the DBZ and WBZ. Looking to see if we can get a move higher to the WBZ before sell comes. For now, price has started to move up, with 1.2616 as a strong resistance. Would like to see a dip here, preferably to trade back to the PZ, find support and move higher - 1.2640 as first target, with a possible pullback then a move higher to WBZ at 1.2674.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
25082023 - #GBPUSDMarket initially based around the PZ and in my plan yesterday I said it could be an opportunity to look for longs but instead in the group, called for a short as the DBZ held and also price was at a key Fib level during European session and it worked well for an 80 pip move down to the buy level. But yes, despite saying that price can revisit the wick of the long candle, I was not expecting a new low to be made. If you see the movement of GBPUSD with indices, you can see how dollar strengthen as indices weaken yesterday. And so, DXY, which I said though it made an ugly bearish reversal candle, it sold off to a double support and yesterday, it totally rebounded, making new highs. From the chart, we can see price is near the MBZ, while at the same time, DXY is nearing a key double resistance at 104.2 or so. Yesterday's price action is very bearish, and price are below the PZ, DBZ and WBZ so bias is to the downside. But if I may make an educated guess on how price will move, it would say that since DXY is near the double R, I am looking for that test and a pullback (not reversal, looking at 104.20 to 103.82 then another up move probably). Thus for GBPUSD, it should mean for it to test the MBZ at 1.2580 or maybe further also, then pull back to one of the zones - 1.2616 or even 1.2640 where we will look for shorts. Look together with DXY (104.2, 103.82) and EURUSD - 1.0778 is a strong support. Will also be using my setups as confirmation.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
7
24082023 - #GBPUSDYesterday was a volatile day for GU. I said 1.2766 or so could be a turning point with EU 1.0880 (). That was much the top for GU (EU did not go as high) as market start to come down, and sold off even further after a re-test of OP, down to 1.2620 where a double support is, and market rallied on the news closing with a long wick. Time for DXY to turn? If you look at the various currencies, I would say that GU does look slightly weaker (with the long wick yesterday, which indicate price might re-visit the wick) but if you look at AU and EU, price action does look more bullish for upside. And DXY did form an ugly bearish candle yesterday but it sold down the DBZ And WBZ. So the plan for today. DXY is at a key support and given that price is much overextended with the rally, I am looking for price to pull back first before possibly going higher. Actually GU formed a nice base above PZ but IMO look to go long at a better price, as indicated by the arrow. Will update again in the group.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
23082023 - #GBPUSDLet's review. Yesterday () I was looking for upside in GU and EU, with 1.28/10 as strong resistance and for EU 1.0936. Market ended up going to 1.28 for GU and 1.0930 for EU, finding resistance before coming back down, with EU forming new lows. The 1.2724 level which I gave initially was good for another bounce. But what's for today? I would say that price action for yesterday was neutral to slight bearish. Bearish because there was a rejection from a move higher and also market closed below the WBZ (slightly below DBZ). I would say neutral though because it did not make a lower low. But of course I need to consider the bearish EU too. TBH I am not too sure about the directions for today. But I will say this. Above GU 1.2732 and EU 1.0844, be cautiously bullish for a move to GU 1.2760 and EU 1.0880-90; after which I will look at price action and other set ups to determine on a possible rejection then or a move higher. We have a magnitude of impact news which could move GBPUSD thus will update again more in the group.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
22082023 - #GBPUSDYesterday's levels () worked well, with confluence with EURUSD. EURUSD held the PZ while GBPUSD was weaker but eventually the level I gave 1.2714 worked perfectly for a move to 1.2760, though less than the 1.2776 resistance. What's for today? Yesterday's move was labored but eventually price moved higher and it is now above the WBZ. EURUSD price action was somewhat bullish yesterday too thus this confluence makes me more bullish. Plan for today: as long as GU 1.2738 holds with EU 1.0892, good for a move to 1.2780 and 1.2812. That should correspond with EU 1.0936 where strong resistance expected and thus a pullback is likely.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
01082023 - #USDJPYUSDJPY made an almost 180 points move after basing off the PZ, it rallied as per my arrow yesterday from my plan () as was rejected at 142.60 almost perfectly. But overall, as we can see, price action is still bullish. 143 as mentioned many times was my near term (was mid term) target and we are nearing it. Watch for a possible break to short the pullback to the PZ but nothing more; trend is still up till it is not. We can see all the zones are below as support thus breaking down is not easy, look for dips till trend change.
Short
by FadeMeIfYouCan
03072023 - #USDJPYFriday, market printed the first bearish USDJPY candle in a long time. Has sell come? The bearish candle was due to weak DXY for the day. Since we are in a new month (and new week), let's look at the monthly and weekly candle first. I am not going to provide separate charts for those but as you can see the M and W candles are bullish and thus nothing to indicate bearishness. IMO, there is still some upside to go in terms of BB, possibly to 146. Also let's look at the daily chart. Market is above all the BZ, and just bounced off the daily BZ. I was "hoping" for a move lower (to 144.0-144.10) for a good long. Might not get it now IMO. Price is now strongly within the BZ. Good for a long with stops below 144.3. Once 144.6 breaks, 144.88 is next and even 145.30 for today.
Long
by FadeMeIfYouCan
2
30062023 - #USDJPYUSDJPY, I said we see a move to first resistance and sell down. I was right for the first part but wrong on the second; market nicely came down to PZ, then rallied to first resistance, sold back down to PZ for a good 50 pips and held there for hours before the US data resulted in another rally up. The levels itself are enough to make you money. But anyway, so what is it for today? On daily, no signs of weakness (yes there was no weakness for days). So, am not surprised if market give another green day. We probably need some risk off to strengthen yen but it is not so now. From the chart, can see PZ supporting it; likely move to 145.10 and 145.36, else look for longs after a dip to 144.32. Overall, again, IMO, shorting USDJPY is more of looking for weakness in USD than strength in JPY. Thus going long, say GBPUSD might be a better trade (assuming JPY weakness).
by FadeMeIfYouCan
28062023 - #USDJPYYesterday, I drew a triangle () and price was within my PZ. I said price to go down but almost immediately flipped my view to go long from the PZ which worked out perfectly as that was the bottom, giving a 3R trade. PZ proved to be a powerful zone as market made a second dip but was just bought up. 143.72 holds, 144.62 is target. A possible trade here is long 143.88, 25 pips stop, target 144.60, 70 pips profit. Anyway what is it for today? Price action is still looking bullish but there will be BOJ speech later which could make things volatile. Price is currently within the PZ. Basing here would launch another up move to target 144.60. Probably the only concern is how yen is gaining strength against other currencies (only USDJPY is up now). But overall, the stand is clear
by FadeMeIfYouCan
23062023 - #EURUSDDXY printed a rather bullish candle yesterday. And that should provide further upside for today. Indeed, that BOJ news seem to be a trigger for that, as DXY went higher. In terms of price action, yesterday's candle looked like a reversal candle which could trigger further downside today(as it did now) but at the same time BZ could act to hold the bottom. Given that the down move has started, looking for price to trade above BZ to try a long for a move to 1.100 and 1.1030. In terms of DXY, 102.6 here is resistance. Looking for rejection here.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
06062023 - #AUDJPY $AUDJPYMarket came down very slight yesterday, and was supported at PZ, forming a tweezer type of candle. Similar move this morning with the down move to test yesterday's low but now market 20 pips higher. USDJPY is weaker but overall, yesterday's price action is not a clear reversal candle. Possible move for today, IMO (with important AUD news later); the thesis would be if yesterday's candle is an intermediate high. Price is now between PZ and BZ. If you ask me, could get a move lower to 91.76 which would be a good location to look for longs. For now, price below PZ, is a short for a move to 92 and 91.76.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
01062023 - #GBPUSDI was bearish dollar yesterday and said to look for longs at around 1.2381. DXY still ended the day green (due to EUR weakness) but GBP is strong and despite the deep dip, closed green. But that candle stick could be a hanging man (reversal candle)? The body of yesterday's candle is rather wide so it remain to be seen if that could be the top. Today's candle is now red. Bias can be considered bullish given that price is above the zones. But I would expect a possible deeper dip again before price could go higher. Will be looking for price to trade within the zone, before further up, with 1.2395 as the PLOD. Short 1.2507 is it trades for at least a 30 pips move. In terms of the monthly candle which just closed yesterday, one important thing to note is we have a red monthly candle. Not that bearish looking and it is supported by the BZ. But if price trades above May's low, it could well break the support zones and it would be further downside. What we would like to see now is price to trade into 1.25-1.254 on a possible rejection; which would trigger a sell for a move much lower.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
1