Ace of Waters - 4 HR BTC Oanda 800% 1year, 1.37% max drawdown. I have no words for this back test. Over 800% profit in the previous year, within just over 100 trades. Only a max drawdown of 1.37%??? My jaw is literally on the floor right now. It has always been my dream to find a reasonable solution to market volatility on BTC.... The test includes the .005% fee Oanda charges PLUS the 30 tick average spread or 'slippage'. Honestly, I dont know what to do. Its been 4 years and 100's of hours trying to find something simple, sustainable and for gods sakes understandable. I think mitigation of such a huge profit potential with such a small draw down is THE holy grail I was looking for. IT IS NOT FOR SALE. DONT ASK. LOOK AT THE CHART, FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOUR SELF. PS. The settings and calculations derived are NOT arbitrary or discretionary. Its dynamic and relative. I dont claim to hold any superior math skills BUT ive done enough to know the dangers of second guessing. Ide be happy trading this algorithm on autopilot and dont profess any knowable future results BUT who cares, your going to likely win 3/4 trades and the trades you loose will likely only be 1/7th the trades you win. Be like water my friends. BINANCE:BTCUSDT OANDA:BTCUSD
Algotrading
Ace of Waters - 4hr 280% 1yr backtestI have no words for this back test on gold 4hr Oanda chart - Heikinashi candles. Over 280% profit in the previous year, within just over 240 trades. Only a max drawdown of 0.46%%??? My jaw is literally on the floor right now. It has always been my dream to find a reasonable solution to market volatility on GOLD .... The test includes the .005% fee Oanda charges PLUS the 15 tick average spread or 'slippage'. Honestly, I dont know what to do. Its been 4 years and 100's of hours trying to find something simple, sustainable and for gods sakes understandable. I think mitigation of such a huge profit potential with such a small draw down is THE holy grail I was looking for. IT IS NOT FOR SALE. DONT ASK. LOOK AT THE CHART, FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOUR SELF. PS. The settings and calculations derived are NOT arbitrary or discretionary. Its dynamic and relative. I dont claim to hold any superior math skills BUT ive done enough to know the dangers of second guessing. Ide be happy trading this algorithm on autopilot and dont profess any knowable future results BUT who cares, your going to likely win 3/4 trades and the trades you loose will likely only be 1/7th the trades you win. Be like water my friends.
FOLLOWING THE BIG MONEY FOOTPRINTS LONG-TERMwe think good traders follow good rules. always consistent and planning we following the big money footprints. the bluebox system have creat a strong entry point in the eur/usd pair. the macd shows a light divergency and the rsi also and we also identify a high volume in d1. what let us suspect that the small money is coming in. all this classic thinking are not the reason why we take this trade its more the indication of our blubox. system that applies batch system parameters. bluebox entry points are calculated following the big money footprints. to make a successful pitch, the most important thing you can do is to be prepared. the average of success of the bluebox signal is up to eighty seven percent. if you require any further information, feel free to contact me
algorithmic trading by phi
thank you!!!
Bank Nifty AlgoHere I developed after many years how typically Banknifty indices operate sudden huge move, its completely controlled by Big players after trapping retailers SL. There are few methods identified and back tested after several months. Basically its perfectly works with Banknifty future & Option buyers. Can easily capture 200 to 300 points from sudden level in intraday. The purpose of this indicator mainly to eliminate Fear, greedy, emotions., its basically "KONW YOUR RISK & REWARD" & Kindly note this for only intraday players how to use it. Its updated version of Millreeh
This indicator facility to plot following for some reason,
1. SMA 20 & 200
2. Swing forming in MTF (current chart TF, 15, 1 Hr )
The basic setup categories two way
1. Setup2 - Just taking out retailer SL zone and trade against Retailers & RR 1:5
2. Algorithm Setup - Join hand with big players. (When S2 Fails) & RR 1:10
How to use for Setup2:
1. Keep your Chart 3 mins
2. Identify Reaction zone/area ( Where to take trade)
3. Action center (When to enter & Know the SL level)
4. Exit Trade ( Know the Target level)
For Algo setup its need lot experience to spot and its move like free fall most of time.
ALGO daily is looking to make the move up anytime.ALGO daily chart
This chart is still intact and once it gets the
push above the descending trendline, This
chart could really show whos boss...The ALGO
blockchain has been rated top 3 best blockchains
in this industry as well. Lets see what it can do here
in the next 1-7 weeks. RSI and chart is reading
a Bullish Divergence.
Entries do not matter (Course #3)Entries do not matter (Course #3)
One thing that I have read many times but never believed is, entries do not matter.
After trading a whole lot of different strategies in a repeatable fashion (algo trading), I found that indeed, entries don’t matter.
Of course, if you get in at a bottom for a long or at the top for a short, it feels nice and the entry is absolutely great, because you get the maximum possible outcome in you think about the market played out. This being said, over time, what will make you successful is really a factor of when you exit AND your system overall (covered course #5).
You should not look at the market and hope to get in here and exit there, because the market is not consistent. The market has no rules and no discipline. Instead, you should look at your system and hope to get out when it’s the right time. It is the same in life, look at what you can control - here this is your system, since you can't control the market. READ THIS AGAIN.
In other words, let’s say I always enter at the wrong time, but the price always goes in my direction for at least 0.25% before going the other way. If I can exit on that 0.25%, I will make money!
If my – consistent, disciplined - trading system can get out at 0.25% all the time, it doesn't matter I had a bad entry, because first of all I am not losing money and second, I am making some.
So yes, entries don’t really matter, but exits do.
Look at Crypto Face of Market Cipher. Very often he enters before a pump, because he is good and because his indicator is good as well. You can call this a “good entry”. But sometimes, he does enter and the trades goes against him. Many times I noticed he would not close his trade, and just wait overnight for it to come back. Let’s say the price does come back, and now goes into profit – he exits. What mattered? His exit. If he had exited when the trade was against him, he would have lost money.
In his book “Trade your way to financial freedom”, Van Tharp talks about it and he explains how a random entry system can beat any other system with a specific entry technique.
Whether you are trading algos or manually, you have to understand that it doesn’t matter when you enter. What matters is your system and when you exit.
My #1 profitable algo is designed to never get in at a bottom or a top, for respectively a long or a short trade. Yet, this algo strategy is profitable.
ALGO could make the move up after this trendline break.ALGO daily chart
This chart is still intact and once it gets the
push above the descending trendline, This
chart could really show whos boss...The ALGO
blockchain has been rated top 3 best blockchains
in this industry as well. Lets see what it can do here
in the next 1-8 weeks. RSI is literally Oversold
and on Deck to move up now.
9 things that do not come easy when implementing Algo TradingA collection of less obvious hurdles you may discover on the Algo trading implementation journey.
#1 Data is king
Some brokers provide basic data feed for algo trading, but more often you will be looking for:
Decent amount of historical data of decent quality for backtesting.
Real time market data. Not the end of the day, and not 15 minutes delayed. As close to real time as possible, with possibility to subscribe for data push notifications.
Data aggregated from multiple exchanges. If you want to make decisions (you do) based on pre- or after- market hours data, this is a must have.
No or reasonable limit on the number of tickers you can get data for concurrently.
Data on market index constituents. And ideally historical data, as constituents change, and you want to backtest our algos without “cheating” (survival bias).
Corporate and fundamentals data. Historical data is quite useful here as well.
Even to satisfy this short list, you need a specialized data provider or a few. For personal use it comes to a couple of hundred dollars of fees a month. It might be under one hundred if you sacrifice some requirements and data quality.
#2 Orders can be over-executed
Ever encountered a situation when your limit order and stop-loss order were executed simultaneously?
Well, it does happen. It’s much more rare when trading manually, but when a program is able to submit orders so much faster, and generate higher order flow, probability of it naturally increases.
A trading engine must be able to recognize such situations and react accordingly. I.e. calmly close the resulting short position (or long position if you are exiting a short trade).
#3 Not all brokers let you set order validity
Quite typical for brokers is to allow an order validity of 1 day, but not shorter.
A common situation is that you submit a buy limit order, the market goes up, our order remains pending, and never executes expiring at the end of the day. A good trading engine would be able to handle such cases and provide configurable validity.
E.g. submit a limit order and if it does not execute after 5 minutes — cancel the order and try something else, adjust the price or try a different ticker altogether.
#4 Circuit breakers is the new reality
Remember when the SEC halted trading on meme stocks or the stocks would not trade during the covid news? Halts happen for various reasons, so a trading engine needs to react accordingly. I.e. not go frenzy during the pause, and continue trading as soon as trading reopens.
#5 Stock splits, ticker renames, mergers and acquisitions are a lot more challenging for an algo
Apple, Tesla, anyone who decides to do a stock split, you need to handle that properly as well: take it into account when exiting the trade, calculating profits and benchmarks. Same with reverse split, which is quite common for the stock trading under $1. As well as another subtle but similar in nature event of issuing stock dividends by a company.
Facebook renames to Meta and changes the ticker. Hertz files for bankruptcy and emerges back on the market under a new ticker. Cloudera gets acquired and becomes private.
All these and many more need to be smoothly handled by the engine, data needs sourced to be linked back to action.
#6 Penny stocks need a special treatment
Stocks under $1 are quite special indeed. Besides the risk being delisted if a stock trades for under $1 for a period of time, such stock has also a privilege, it can be traded for sub-penny amounts, i.e. for multiples of $.0001. You should carefully handle that in the trading engine, so you can benefit from more precise order placement and stop losses.
#7 Index constituents are harder than it should be to
For a good trading engine you need an ability to continuously screen a set of securities for desired market patterns. Probably you don’t want to manually enter a bunch of tickers, but use well recognized “buckets” such as market indexes, S&P 500, DJIA, and others. And of course you need to monitor how the constituents of these buckets change over time. Get the historical data and index updates in a reliable way is a project on it’s own.
#8 Speed of execution matters a lot
Working with the arrays of data, monitoring and trading multiple tickers soon starts taking quite a bit of time, minutes or even hours. Performance optimization, parallel execution and scaling are soon to come as a requirement. Even for a retail trader delays longer than a few seconds may noticeably impact the gains.
#9 Unattended execution is costly
You don’t want the algo to stop trading when you close a laptop, or don’t have internet connectivity. To achieve unattended execution, you need the right infrastructure, monitoring, backups, disaster recovery and many other fun things. It’s an extra buck but definitely worth the spend.
Position Sizing (Course #0)My very first course was going to be the winning rate. As I wrote down the other ones, I realized that position sizing, understanding what it is and how it works, was actually the most important part of it all. Therefore, I have decided to create this course #0 as the one you MUST take first to understand the other stuff.
Understanding position sizing is very tricky actually. The very first time I learned about it was with Crypto Cred. He’s got a lot of great courses on trading and Technical Analysis, I also recommend you checking him out.
So here is what most people think about doing: I will buy 100% of my account balance into bitcoin ($1,000 account), my account size will then be $1,000.
Or, I will buy with 15% of my account, so my position will be $150. Even better, I will go 10x and my position size will be $10,000.
This is great and all, but this is NOT how you should look at it.
Whenever you trade, you MUST – SHALL – HAVE TO HAVE – an plan on where and why do you enter, where you need to exit at profit AND where you need to exit at loss. If you don’t want to accept that, no good.
If you want to invest into something, you MUST – SHALL – HAVE TO HAVE – an plan on where and why do you enter, where you need to exit at profit AND where you need to exit at loss. If you don’t want to accept that, no good.
It’s like driving, you must know when to turn, accelerate and break.
So, because you will have a plan, you will know OR you will decide where to put your Stop Loss. For example, you want to put your stop loss the 20 EMA. Or, you want to put your stop loss at the low of the previous candle. Or, you want to put your stop loss 0.5% below your entry. Or, you want to put your stop loss at the previous support level.
Once you have decided where to put your Stop Loss, based on your strategy and on the structure of the market/chart, you will need to decide how much you will risk on that trade. Basically, trading is like betting. You will bet/risk an amount of money, hoping to make a profit.
To give you an idea, 1% risk is cool, if you want fast results you can go to 2-3% (of your account balance). Some great traders like to do 5-20%, but this is super high risk. 5-20% on an intraday trading strategy (in and out during the same day), then this is degen to me. On an intraday 1-2% risk per trade is good.
So now, you are starting to be good at position sizing: you know where your stop loss will be and you know how much you will risk.
Let’s go back to our examples of stop losses.
Example 1: you want to put your stop loss the 20 EMA
Example 2: you want to put your stop loss at the low of the previous candle
Example 3: you want to put your stop loss 0.5% below your entry
Example 4: you want to put your stop loss at the previous support level
On the above chart, here are the distance between your entry and the stop losses:
Example 1, the 20 EMA is 0.28% below your entry.
Example 2, the low of the previous candle is 2.30% below your entry.
Example 3, the stop loss is exactly 0.50% below the entry, like you decided.
Example 4, the previous support level is 4.60% below your entry.
Now let’s calculate your position size:
Magic Formula: Position size = Risk % / Distance to SL %
Example 1: 1% / 0.28% = 3.57 This means your position size will be 3.57 times your account balance.
Example 2: 1% / 2.30% = 0.437 This means your position size will be 0.437 times your account balance, so a little bit less than half of it.
Example 3: 1%/0.5% = 0.50 Your position size is equal to half your account.
Example 4: 1%/4.60% = 0.22 Your position size will be 0.22 times your account.
So now, do you understand that leverage should only be necessary when your strategy calls for a Stop Loss that is positioned at a distance that is less than your risk %? This is example 1. You should NEVER think “I want to use 10x” just for fun. You should only apply leverage because your position size calculation told you so.
Conclusion: Position Sizing is the calculation of how much should your position be, so that when you hit your SL, you only lose what you planned losing.
Position size = RISK % / DISTANCE TO SL %
Mid term forecast of XAU/USD GOLDZEYAN here!!!!
I'm looking at the market as a bearish pov i was bullish on gold before but now as far as i can see market is quite bearish so ill be looking to sell the retracements
This is a general idea of how I view the market; I use various entry techniques; please do not take this information at face value; conduct your own research.
Please let me know in the comments if you want me to analyse your charts.
like for more!!!!!!!!!
This is not financial advice; please conduct your own research and use this information as confirmation in addition to your own analysis.