Baba going down the waterfall. BABAAgain, a large cap has recently pivoted and had started to draw zigzags heading down in due course. Is this a canary in the coalmine?
Fibonacci goals are in green, and invalidation is in red. We know of no more powerful tool in analyzing the markets other than NeoWave / Elliott Wave theory when correctly combined with a few tools in out belt. Make sure to remember that this is not financial advice, and we never give financial advice on this channel. It is your job to create or seek out your own. Good luck out there and be smart!
Alibaba
Wyckoffian Stock Analysis - BABA Possible Accumulation It is obvious that BABA is oversold by now, looking at the news & Investors actions hints that there’s an interest in higher prices
If we look at the chart we can see that
1. Around the point marked as SC, we can see an extreme drop of Volume, that is very common when we enter a range
2. The volume started rising recently, around the point when the price broke down out of the range, that activity can hint us a Spring or a TS that will probably be followed by a price rise
We still need to wait for a spring test before we can be certain.
But for now my prediction is that a bullish trend awaits.
Maybe :)Beijing Crackdown On Chinese Stocks
Investors should be aware of significant risks with investing in Chinese stocks. The authoritarian state and its regulators can impose sweeping restrictions, fines or bans on major companies, often with little notice or transparency.
That risk has been very apparent over the last several months.
Alibaba ran afoul of regulators in late 2020, with regulators opening probes into internet platforms and suspending the Ant Group IPO. In April, China fined Alibaba $2.8 billion for anti-competitive actions and ordered it to change various practices.
Alibaba affiliate Ant Group is limiting the scope of some of its businesses to comply with regulators' demands.
BABA Daily TimeframeSNIPER STRATEGY
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ALIBABA:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS+PRICE ACTION|NEXT TARGET|LONG🔔🔔Shares of Chinese tech giant Alibaba Group Holding fell 14.4 percent in August, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Although Alibaba became the first major Chinese tech company to face fines and regulations late last year, the punishment continued in July, when shares fell 13.9%, and in August, when shares fell another 14.4%.
The culprits behind Alibaba's continued August decline in shares were an earnings report that fell short of expectations for the top line, and continued, escalating regulatory aggression against the Chinese Internet giant.
In early August, Alibaba reported quarterly earnings that beat earnings expectations but fell short of earnings expectations. With such low sentiment, the mixed results were probably enough to worry investors that regulations are starting to affect the company's financial performance.
Previously, Alibaba had used its first-mover advantage to squeeze out competitors, often forcing brands into exclusive contracts to gain access to its market-leading e-commerce platform. But in April, the company was fined $2.8 billion for violating antitrust rules and was ordered to stop the practice. Ending forced exclusivity could strengthen upwardly mobile e-commerce challengers, so the fact that Alibaba's revenues came in slightly below expectations is not a good sign.
The situation didn't get any easier as the month progressed. In mid-August, the State Market Regulation Administration issued a comprehensive list of rules prohibiting tech giants from illegally collecting and using customer data or using technology to deny access to competitors' products. As one of the largest and most powerful "legacy" technology platforms in China,
Alibaba is likely to lose more than its competitors as the rules are designed to level the playing field. The Ministry of Transportation has also begun work on rules to ensure the welfare of delivery drivers, which could affect the cost of food delivery for Alibaba subsidiaries Ele.me and Freshippo.
A series of new rules will undoubtedly hit Alibaba's financial performance. But it doesn't look like the company will disappear anytime soon. After all, last quarter the company's revenue was up 34%, though, minus the effect of Alibaba Sun Art's retail consolidation, it was only 22%.
After such a brutal collapse, the company's stock looks cheap: it's trading at about 17.9 times this year's projected earnings -- and that's with a significant net cash position and tens of billions in minority investments in other companies. Alibaba stock had already attracted prominent value investors Charlie Munger and Bill Miller earlier this year, and now its value has dropped significantly.
Thus, Alibaba could be a good deal for patient investors if they can pay attention to the key factors. And here are three factors supporting Alibaba.
1. Dominating business in China
According to Goldman Sachs, Alibaba dominates the e-commerce market with a 69% share by 2020, making it the Chinese Amazon. Alibaba has 912 million active customers in China and 1.17 billion worldwide. In 2020, the company will have a gross market size of $1.2 trillion, representing the value of all transactions flowing through Alibaba's business.
Alibaba also owns a 33% stake in Ant Group, a major payment company in China that operates Alipay, which handles more than half of third-party payments in China. In other words, Alibaba is relevant to many aspects of the Chinese consumer and their economic activity.
2. Fantastic financial performance
In 2020, Alibaba's revenue grew 41% to $109 billion, aided by consumers using online services during the pandemic. In the first quarter of 2021 (ending in June), the company saw rapid revenue growth of nearly $32 billion, 34% more than in 2020. Alibaba is expected to generate $143 billion in revenue by the end of the year, a 30% increase.
The company is also very profitable. It converted $3.2 billion of first-quarter revenue into free cash flow and now has $72 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments on its balance sheet. This gives Alibaba tremendous financial flexibility to create/develop new business segments or acquire emerging competitors.
3. It's a bargain buy
Even though the company's stock price is falling, Alibaba's continued growth is driving the stock down. Last fall, the stock was trading at a price-to-sales ratio of nearly 8, and today it is less than 4 when using the expected full-year earnings for 2021.
In terms of earnings, we can use the price-to-earnings ratio to take another look at Alibaba's valuation. The company is expected to earn $9.70 per share in 2021, resulting in a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20, which is about a third less than Amazon's current P/E ratio if we use its expected 2021 earnings per share.
Alibaba stock seems very inexpensive given its dominant position in China and its ability to grow its huge revenue by 30% - and remain profitable.
Alibaba is a unique company that offers investors growth, strong fundamentals, and an attractive valuation, but despite all these positive factors, it is risky. The company may continue to trade at a lower valuation than companies such as Amazon for a long time to come because investors can never be completely sure that political risks will not emerge in the future.
Nevertheless, Alibaba stock is like a "coil spring," which could unleash strong gains if investor sentiment becomes more favorable. This upside potential makes Alibaba an interesting idea for savvy investors.
Alibaba: A Bad Investment with Brilliant TechnicalsThe recent news about Alibaba's "donation" to the CCP agenda machine has sent the $BABA worshipers into full defensive mode. YouTube videos and Seeking Alpha articles on the equity have exploded in popularity and volume. Long term, investing in Chinese equities is a gamble but, if you're on the right side of the trade, you can certainly make a lot of money. This may or may not be the case with Alibaba. Present retail sentiment may likely force the stock upward but I think this will be taken as an opportunity by smart money to sell into strength. The retail money will be left holding a bag of CCP garbage. I'm (cautiously) short.
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Watch List Alert: Alibaba Group Holdings (NYSE: $BABA)Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The company operates Taobao Marketplace, a social commerce platform; Tmall, a third-party online and mobile commerce platform for brands and retailers; Alimama, a monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; and Tmall Global and Kaola, which are import e-commerce platforms. It also operates Lingshoutong that connects FMCG manufacturers and their distributors to small retailers; Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, the company offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, it provides elastic computing, database, storage, virtualization network, large-scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, machine learning platform, and Internet of Things services. Additionally, the company operates Youku, an online video platform; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency app; and Tmall Genie, an AI-enabled smart speaker. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
ALIBABA, SPECULATION MODE ON!Alibaba Group Holding Limited, also known as Alibaba Group and Alibaba.com, is a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, Internet, and technology.
Strong divergence on the monthly. The price level at which Alibaba now stands has always been characterized by high volatility in the past. The market has always reacted with a reabsorption over 60% of the time in the past at this level. This opens the scenario to an interesting short-term speculative operation which, in the event of a positive outcome, could turn into a medium-term operation on an asset which, ignoring short-term problems, creates several points of GDP for the Chinese economy.
High risk transaction, the investor should consider the volatility of the underlying and the riskiness of the transaction in managing this asset.
We don't care about the news. We care about the chart!Bad story is, that we lost 171.74$ support for continue our up trend but we could forming support at 1.618(158.31$) and 0.618 (157.33$) and testing 171$ ~ area again. If we broke and close above 171$ on higher timeframes then our next targer will be arround 198$(25%+).
Daily-Chart:
Buy against the panic sellers is one of the best indicators, sue me.
$BABA | Model Identifies Buy OpportunityHello Traders,
The targets on this chart are produced by a proprietary model. Data is fed into the model, the output is the targets you see on the chart.
In light of recent fundamentals $BABA and a slew of Chinese Stocks have taken a nose dive. My proprietary model is pointing in the opposite direction.
This will be a test for the model.