ALIBABA : BULLISH CYPHER PATTERN IN DAILY TIMEFRAME 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors and Community!
Analysis of #BABA
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Strategy: Bullish Cypher harmonic pattern
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Alibaba
Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.Monday, 7 December 2020
22:51 PM (WIB)
Alibaba looking great and healthy. Seems no problem internal with the holdings Ltd. It looks normal. It's just a transition move from the top of the head and overbought, to the neckline's formation.
Check for tomorrow if any updated news
Best regards,
RyodaBrainless
"Live to Ride and Ride to Live"
$BABA - "OPPORTUNITY" NYSE:BABA
BABA on a rollercoaster ride with several negative catalysts getting priced-in causing a significant pullback. Down about 17% from its ATH (as of the time of this writing). Waiting for $265 validation of support, watching two other support levels at $257, all the way down to $240. A breakout of $275 resistance is critical to have a chance to test $280 - $300.
Undervalued company, in my opinion, with a significant competitive advantage in China and its growing economy, Ali Cloud is underappreciated and brings a lot of growth potential in the future. A positive catalyst to also watch is the potential ANT Group IPO along with their successful compliance with S. 945 "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act".
LONG all the way. Cheers!
-Kaswrp
ALIBABAthere are lots of things to consider.
Let's start with the price chart.
we had 2 down gap, not yet covered very well, plus the last one of 30th Nov.
considering the 200 ma, it's close, yet away $20.
then the ma 20 days, that took down the price 2 times, at $303 and $280, which is just on top of the price again at $270 (price now $266)
MACD
isn't really good looking now. 12 ma is crossing downturn the 26 ma, which is usually bearish, plus it's close to 0 in the bars.
talking about the RSI.
it's optimistic, since it says the price is going to be more bought, yet under 50% (ca 45%)
VOLUME
It's looking good. volume, since the spike when ALIBABA went down from $310, is lowering, which could mean the downtrend strength is lowering, so it can reverse.
yet the volume is not calm and has not been as low as during the upturn (just like from 270 to 310 in October).
I want to try to use a 1-10 (may scale it in future, just today's new idea), to rate the stock IMO
sooooooo, I'm going to give baba a 7. it's because fundamentally its good, china is a good place for this business right now, and the price is as low as 5 months ago. 1Y +32% ok? quite good.
the chart is not the best at the moment, but if ur not considering buying into it, u should at least check it daily to see if it hit 200 ma.
CAMELOT0707 RATE 03 December 2020 = 7/10
the weekly chart for a larger view.
hourly chart :D you never know
AlibabaWhat Is Holding Back Alibaba Exponential Growth
The Chinese company Alibaba Group owns more than 900 enterprises, generates a turnover of almost $ 400 billion, and creates tens of millions of jobs.
Alibaba was recently set to conduct the largest IPO in history, bringing its subsidiary Ant Group fintech service to two exchanges at once - Shanghai and Hong Kong. During the IPO, the company planned to raise at least $ 34 billion.
Trading in securities was supposed to begin on November 5, but two days before the start of trading, the IPO was suspended by the Chinese government. As a result, Alibaba shares fell in value.
Alibaba's quarterly revenue beats all the forecasts of the analysts. A big increase is expected in connection with the Black Friday and Cyber Monday holidays.
The latest news: Alibaba will help the government build electric vehicles and has been laying the groundwork for this for more than 5 years by working with the Chinese state-owned automaker SAIC Motor.
Technically, Alibaba is currently in an uptrend, the price is moving in the channel and exponential growth is just around the corner.
Best regards EXCAVO
Elliott Wave View: New Bullish Cycle in AlibabaShort Term Elliott Wave view in Alibaba suggests the decline from October 27 peak has ended at $252.5 as wave (4). The internal subdivision of wave (4) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. The 60 minutes chart below shows wave C of that zigzag which completed at $252.5. The stock has since turned higher in wave (5).
Alibaba however still needs to break above wave (3) at $319.3 to rule out a double correction in wave (4). Short term rally from wave (4) low at 252.52 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure. Up from wave (4) low, wave ((i)) ended at 258.31 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 252.67. Stock then resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 278, and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 270.11. Expect the stock to finish wave ((v)) soon and this complete wave 1 of (5) in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 of (5) to correct cycle from November 18 low before the rally resumes. As far as November 18 pivot low at 252.52 holds, expect the stock to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for the next leg higher.
Re-accumulation phase for Alibaba before markup I believe BABA has shown us the first levels of its trading range at the $315 level and $255 level and I think this is the range we will see the strong hands start accumulation before the Ant IPO for the markup. I will be swinging BABA in this range until it’s time for the final rally up in its final phase of this range.
Alibaba (BABA): Dissecting the FUD, Fundamentals, and TechnicalsAlibaba Group is a Chinese multinational tech company specializing in e-commerce, and IT. This Chinese company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as BABA. In this analysis, I’ll be covering the company’s fundamentals by looking at its business model and financials, as well as technical analysis for the stock. I’ll also be providing my own insight on why this stock has been rather underperforming for the past few weeks, and what we can expect for the future.
Business Model
- Alibaba, while it initially started with a focus on e-commerce, has expanded to other territories as well
- It aims to offer the necessary digital infrastructure as an e-commerce platform, providing small businesses the necessary tools and equipment to operate online.
- Alibaba also takes part in cloud computing, just like AWS and Azure, offering data storage, big data analysis, and machine learning services.
- Alibaba also has a business dedicated to digital media, producing original content
- Alibaba owns 33% of Ant Financial’s shares, which is what affected the price action so heavily recently
Ant Financial IPO FUD
- Ant Financial is a company that was formerly known as Alipay.
- Its expected market valuation after the dual listing was expected to reach over $310 billion, which would have significantly affected BABA’s price as well.
- However, the Chinese Communist Party halted the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of this company, without an official explanation.
- Ant Financial has transformed the way Chinese people interact with money. It challenged China’s banking system by brining easy use of payments, borrowing, and investing through smartphones across the entire country
- Ant Financial’s business model, in essence, puts financial services outside the direct control of the CCP and Chinese banks
Financials
- So at this point, we understand why Alibaba’s stock prices have been negatively affected by news.
- Looking at the company’s financials, we can discover that the firm’s fundamentals remain solid
- The company has shown a parabolic growth in their revenue since 2010, reaching record highs for the 2020 Estimate
- Accordingly, its operating income grows at a steady pace as well.
- Its gross profit margin averages at 55.5%, which is considered as extremely high profit margins
- They did report a decline in yoy EPS for the 12 months ending in September 30, 2020, and a 60% yoy decline in the EPS for the quarter ending at the same time.
- Nevertheless, it has still managed to beat the consensus EPS, and continues to demonstrate yoy growth
Technical Analysis
- This is the weekly chart for Alibaba
- We can see that it was consolidating in a rising wedge pattern, before breaking out in July 2020.
- Due to the Ant Financial IPO cancellation FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), stock prices fell from $320 down to $255.
- Elliott Wave counts suggests a further potential downside to $220-230 levels, where it could complete the corrective wave at the gap support
- We can also see that prices have never broke down the 150 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the weekly.
- This indicates that the converging point of the 150 SMA and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support at $200 could be considered our last line of support
- Thanks to the recent corrective move, however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been flushed out to neutral levels, from overbought territories
- It seems as though the RSI could bounce on the trend line support soon
Conclusion
Alibaba is a solid company with strong fundamentals and financials, as well as a business model that expands throughout a wide range of areas. It has fallen victim to the restrictions imposed by the Chinese Communist Party recently, but it’s important to understand the role this company plays for the Chinese economy and the world economy. Companies like Alibaba are essentially too big to fall. There are attempts made by governments of various countries such as the US with big tech companies, and South Korea with Samsung Group, to regulate dominant firms. Regardless, none of them have actually succeeded besides a small correction in stock prices driven by FUD. As such, while technical analysis suggests further potential downside, I believe that investors should approach this stock from a buy perspective.
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