Alibaba
BABA FOR A QUICK FLIP, BULLISH TO $165.00This may be 1 of 2 most probable pathways....either we see a simple ABC or and expanded diagonal/triangle consolidation.
based on the "law" or guideline of alternation: MORE LIKELY that it is not a simple ABC and in fact a larger ABCDE correction
forex-indicators.net
Alternation
The guideline of alternation is very broad in its application and warns the analyst always to expect a difference in
the next expression of a similar wave. Hamilton Bolton said, The writer is not convinced that alternation is inevitable in
types of waves in larger formations, but there are frequent enough cases to suggest that one should look for it rather
than the contrary.
Although alternation does not say precisely what is going to happen, it gives valuable notice of what not to expect
and is therefore useful to keep in mind when analyzing wave formations and assessing future possibilities. It primarily
instructs the analyst not to assume, as most people tend to do, that because the last market cycle behaved in a certain
manner, this one is sure to be the same. As "contrarians" never cease to point out, the day that most investors "catch on"
to an apparent habit of the market is the day it will change to one completely different. However, Elliott went further in
stating that, in fact, alternation was virtually a law of markets.
HOWEVER, it is likely still a B-wave and therefore just a bounce before further consolidation/ aka quick flip around $165.00
not financial advice just education
BABA Has Reversed Off Resistance, Potential Drop!BABA has reversed off its resistance at 169.92 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it could potentially reverse down to its support at 156.44 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal could occur.
BABA Tested Resistance, Potential Drop!BABA tested resistance at 160.08 (100% & 61.8% Fiboancci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where price could fall to its support at 143.11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is testing its resistance and a corresponding drop could occur.
STORY: Alibaba And The Forty Thieves - Steal, steal - MUST READ!Once upon a time, there lived two brothers named Kasim and Alibaba, who were sons of a merchant and had an equal amount of inheritance. While Cassim married a rich lady and became a wealthy merchant, Alibaba married a poor, humble woman and lived the life of a woodcutter.
One day, Alibaba goes deep into the forest for some good quality wood. There, he chances upon a cave owned by a gang of 40 thieves. He watches from behind a tree and learns that the cave is magically protected. He hears the leader of the thieves say a magical word to open and close the cave...
Alibaba said the magical words, and the door opened...
************************
Alibaba is now rich and huge, and he might one day be in the same league as Amazon and Google.
This is China's no 1 - Welcome to AliBaba!
Buy, Buy!
D4 <3
G 20 Summit May Help Alibaba's ReboundAlibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s ( BABA ) stock has fallen nearly 30% from its June highs as stock market’s broad-based sell-off continues. The shares of the China-based e-commerce giant have been weighed down by rising trade war tensions between the U.S. and China.
Now with the G20 Summit just days ahead and a meeting with President Trump and President Xi scheduled, the season can be changed “winter to spring ” for Alibaba.
The company’s earnings and revenue estimates have been slashed over the past six months as the Chinese renminbi (RMB) has fallen sharply versus the U.S. dollar. But if the trade tension eases, the renminbi may begin to strengthen resulting in analysts boosting their earnings estimates.
The company reported blow out second-quarter earnings results, but still, earnings estimates for fiscal 2019 have dropped by 20% to $5.18 per share. Meanwhile, fiscal 2020 estimates have fallen 21.5% to $6.72 per share. The good news, earnings growth is expected to be robust at nearly 30% in 2020. Even better, analysts are forecasting earnings growth of 31.5% in 2021. It means that the stock is likely too cheap given its current earnings multiple of 22.5 times 2020 estimates.
If one averages the earnings growth in 2020 and 2021 to 30%, the stock is trading with a PEG ratio of 0.75. Should the stock trade with a PEG of 1, the PE ratio would rise to 30, and the stock would be worth $201 based on fiscal 2020 consensus earnings estimates. That would be an increase of nearly 33% from the current stock price.
The stocks PE ratio for the next 12 months is also historically low when compared to the past three years. Since 2016, the stock has traded with a valuation between 21 and 36. This too suggests that Alibaba’s stock is cheap.
The technical overview:
The stock is printing a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart. This is a bearish continuation pattern. A bearish breakout of the wedge may carry the price towards 130 bottoms. This ” bottom retest” can be used as a buying opportunity. 160 $ is the key resistance. Another buying opportunity would be a weekly closing above 160.
A near term sell opportunity is the potential bearish breakdown the wedge – estimated at 141 $ targeting 130 $.
VIPS growth potentialVipshop market cap. 3B vs Alibaba market cap. 343B
Has potential to grow in comparison with Alibaba
Long term idea without predefined stop loss and target profit.
Disclaimer: not investment advice, not qualified licensed investment advisor, author may have positions in mentioned assets.
Is Bitcoin's correction all that uncommon?On this study we quickly examine if Bitcoin's 2018 correction is an unusual phenomenon in financial markets and how it is compared to other industry leaders.
For our example we use Alibaba a reformer in the Retail Industry and Netflix a reformer in Entertainment. We consider Bitcoin to be the reformer in the Financial sector. All assets have fairly recently joined the market scene but revolutionized it, as opposed to similar cases that weren't used like Amazon, Apple or Google that have been around and well established for far longer. Facebook (reformer in Interactive Media & Service) could be used also but its growth was less parabolic.
At a glance we see that all 3 assets enjoyed a parabolic growth since 2015:
- Bitcoin > 10000%, Alibaba > 260% and Neflix > 800%.
After their all time highs, a significant correction followed:
- Bitcoin > 70%, Alibaba > 380% and Neflix > 37%.
It is obvious that such corrections are not uncommon for market leaders/ reformers and on the contrary quite common to industry reformers that have enjoyed a sharp period of extreme growth. Such corrections are typically healthy for the asset's progression. Although of course Bitcoin's correction is almost twice as much and twice as long, we need to consider two facts: It grew prior to this equally disproportionately and also the Financial Sector's market capitalization is twice as big (>$7 trillion) than Amazon's Consumer Sector or even more so Netflix's Entertainment Sector.
So during a common market correction investors as usual need to identify the right time to position themselves for the next growth period.
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Alibaba: 2 Month TargetAlibaba for the next week or so may have some small negative correlations due to concerns over trade in China and the recent effects tariffs and political decisions had on Asian markets. That being said, it is coming in on a strong for positive correlations when looking at a 2 month time period. An expectancy of a $150 price tag should occur within January and it seems to have strong stock potential for a very long term hold.
Dat gapWell it looks like the runaway gap that formed back in July last year is finally going to be filled. With all the downward momentum, as indicated by the MACD and Stoch RSI, that gap is acting as sort of a magnet just pulling the price down. The CMF also indicates that there is a lot of sell pressure so lower lows for NYSE:BABA should be expected.
The tech industry as a whole is hurting right now and that can be seen across all markets so trade with caution.