BIG $BABA HnS Swing Position IdeaSupport in gray box isnt only valid support.
Generally just looking for the next shoulder to form, but this might already be a good entry area.
This would be a beautiful HnS and the breakout could take us far.
Keep a lookout for where else the shoulder may form, break gray bos and shoulder can still form lower, hard invalidation is if we get new lows below 'head'.
Alibaba
9988|Alibaba Wave Projection | Bullish Divergence - Rebound?Price action and chart pattern trading - Minor downtrend ending diagonal pattern with MACD bullish divergence
> A possible wave 4.3 minor downtrend wave at the lower support 0.786 extension of wave 4.1 and upcoming rebound wave 4.4 to 0.382 - 0.5 fibonacci retraced from wave 4.3.
> Target upside +10 - 12% while downside is -6%, RRR: 1.5:1
> The final downtrend wave 5 could be slightly below Target H&S zone.
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss, nothing is 100%
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA when Charlie Munger did:
or reentered when it was cheaper than the IPO:
Now looking at the BABA Alibaba options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $110 strike price Calls with
2023-8-18 expiration date for about
$10.20 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
I have chosen that expiration date to allow me to be wrong and not close the position and to have a bigger gain by the expiration date, if BABA Alibaba keeps on climbing.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ALIBABA Potential for Bullish Rise | 14th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ALIBABA is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a pullback buy entry at 92.85, where the overlap support is. Stop loss will be at 84.32, where the previous overlap support is. Take profit will be at 121.28, where the recent high is.
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Alibaba | Fundamental AnalysisThe previous several years have been petty tough for e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, to say the least. After peaking amid the coronavirus pandemic, the company lost nearly 80% of its value over the next two years. Since then, the company has rallied, up 78% from its October 2022 low, but still a far cry from the levels that preceded the COVID-19 pandemic.
Needless to say, these have been challenging times for Alibaba and its investors. And while the company still has a considerable way to go and overcome challenges, here are a few reasons to be optimistic about Alibaba stock.
China begins to roll back quarantine restrictions
China's anti-COVID-19 policies have undoubtedly hurt Alibaba. The ban has negatively impacted China's overall economic activity, and taking into account Alibaba's size and how entrenched it is in the Chinese economy (which is the second largest in the world), it has had a direct impact on the company.
In addition to people spending less during store closures in China, this policy has also hurt Alibaba's logistics network, particularly due to road and highway closures. All of this led to the company's first-ever low YoY revenue growth in June 2022.
But there should be brighter days ahead. No one can say for sure when China will fully open its doors, but some parts of the country have begun to take steps in that direction in December last year. If the situation is similar to the U.S., a reopening in China could boost economic growth with the help of improved spending and household consumption. Alibaba should benefit from this.
Cloud business growth
Cloud infrastructure and services are becoming an important part of any business that uses the Internet for its operations. In Q3 of 2022 alone, global spending on cloud infrastructure services rose to $57 billion, bringing total spending in the past 12 months to $217 billion.
With a 5% market share, Alibaba Cloud lags behind market leaders Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Alphabet Google Cloud (34%, 21%, and 11%, respectively), but the trend is there.
For the quarter that ended Sept. 30, 2022, Alibaba Cloud revenue grew 4% YoY to more than $2.9 billion, driven by public cloud growth. More encouraging, however, should be the growth in Alibaba Cloud's non-Internet Industry (NII) customers. The number of NII customers grew 20 percent year over year to 58 percent of total cloud revenue.
These strong results were achieved at the expense of government services, telecommunications companies, and financial services. Cloud services are integral to all three of these areas, which could lead to long-term recurring revenue for Alibaba.
The global cloud computing market is projected to reach more than $1.7 trillion by 2029, at an average annual growth rate of just under 20 percent. Even if Alibaba Cloud can't make the top three in market share, it will have plenty of room for success as it expands the overall pie.
Jack Ma's departure from Ant Group
No one was surprised when Jack Ma, Alibaba's founder, announced he was stepping down as chairman. Although Ma had led Alibaba's development and triumph, his departure did not affect the company too much because the leadership was already in new hands.
However, many were shocked when Ma announced that he was giving up control of fintech giant Ant Group, in which Alibaba has a 33% stake. Ant Group was scheduled to go public in November 2020 with a capitalization of about $37 billion, but the stock was canceled at the last minute largely because of regulatory scrutiny.
With Ma no longer controlling Ant Group, the likelihood that the company could restart its initial public offering (IPO) process has increased significantly, though it likely won't be smooth. Ant Group's IPO could bring Alibaba a large cash infusion that could be used as China's quarantine restrictions ease.
Amazon AMZN - Manufacturing SupportAmazon is a company I frankly do not like anything about. I feel it's like the North American version of the Chinese Communist Party's Aliexpress and roughly exists to rely on a network of fake reviews to push junk made in the CCP's factories through North America for the purposes of letting the Party keep people employed so they don't rebel and to allow the regime a financial lifeline.
I personally make a point of buying elsewhere under all circumstances and have found no reason to use Amazon. The prices aren't even good anymore.
However, when it comes to trading, I don't care. I care about price action, because I believe that the price action fractal reflects the combined knowledge of all market participants.
If it was a buy and hold kind of market, I would stay away from it, but I think Amazon is actually presenting a major opportunity manufacturing support at the COVID-low double bottom and has produced something you go long on profitably.
In early November, I made a strong call on Amazon amid the price action following the Q3 earnings dump that ended up working out for a ~15% gain.
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
The long opportunity at present is even larger, and is primarily based on the fact that I believe that indexes are set for an 8-10%+ jump before we see the real nightmare of 2023 from a broken global economy unfold before our faces and the happy days never come back.
SPX500 / ES / SPY - Enjoy the Party While It Lasts
The basis for the idea is simple. Markets at large do not seem to want to go down. Amazon ran its November post-earnings dump low and has consolidated above the 2020 COVID hysteria panic dump low.
Additionally, Friday's NFP dump was met with a sharp 5%+ reversal, leading to Amazon closing the week above the $85.88 low. The MMs still have not ran the bottom, which indicates they're long from the COVID low and this point will be saved for future considerations once they're short.
The most obvious target for an upside area for the purposes of selling short is the gap at $105, which the previous bounce most notably, conveniently, and only slightly missed. A run to this area already amounts to 25% gain on a time horizon that I would expect is within the period of now to February FOMC.
But additionally, AMZN has a breakaway gap in the $120s that it can target, should that $105~ gap fill and Amazon acts like META has and not retrace.
However, should a pump not transpire in either Amazon or the indexes in general, the best case scenario for Amazon is $75-65. Should this unfold, it may either take a long time for recovery; It may also never recover.
With any long trade, I have to caution readers that the situation in Mainland China under the Communist Party is very severe, as the world's largest and most important nation has been sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia for the last three years.
The situation is not getting better, it's getting worse.
The amount of people and high ranking Party members who have perished is scary, so much scarier than the little bit that comes out from behind the Great Firewall's censorship system.
Should the flames of the pandemic suddenly accelerate one day and cause the fall of key CCP cadres, up to and including Xi Jinping, you should always remember that 6:00 PM Beijing time is right before the NYSE 7:30 open, and thus all long trades are at risk of a significant and unprecedented gap down.
*Sighs* ... Human beings tend not to believe anything until they can see it. So long as their prejudices believe something is "not possible," they won't even consider it can happen until it starts unfolding before their very eyes.
However, then it's already too late.
The problem with Wuhan Pneumonia is the English-language propaganda machines ("media") will not report the truth of the situation in Mainland China and will help the Party cover up the pestilence until the plague is so serious that the Party collapses and nobody can keep a lid on the real disaster befalling the Central Kingdom.
When that day comes, it will imperil more than your PnL and the state of your portfolio.
It's simply just too critical that before that day comes, you do your part to reject and oppose the Chinese Communist Party and the Marxist-Leninist ideals and systems it has spread throughout the world.
For when that day comes, it will be too late for regret.
Hope for the future lies in the present.
Just your choices in the present. It's a test of your heart and soul.
BABA Breaking out!! Wait for pullback !BABA has broken out and currently retesting the RESISTANCE ZONE @ 120 - 140
We can expect at least a slight pullback from here as Price action has been overly bullish the past few days + MACD is in severely overbought condition
We are expecting a soon to be GOLDEN CROSS with 50 MA crossing 200 MA
We also see a massive spike in the ADX implying a very strong ongoing trend for the BULLS
Those who do not have positions yet can look to ENTER/LONG along the:
100 - 110 USD zone
Personally I will not set stop losses here as Im expecting to hold BABA for long
Fundamentally, China domestic demand is growing massively with a massive middle class. BABA also has a huge economic moat along with Jack Ma relinquishing his position on the board and staying low, BABA's days of billion dollar fines might be over.
IS ALIBABA REALLY UNDERVALUED STOCK?Billionaire Ryan Cohen is reported to have built a huge stake in Alibaba which worth hundreds of millions of dollars and now pushing for the share buybacks. Alibaba Group on the other hand had spent $18 billion repurchasing its own shares in the third quarter of 2022 and was aiming to buy back $40 billion worth of shares in total, with the plan lasting until May 2025.
With the recent investment in cloud computing the company is poised for strong growth in the future. PEG stands at 1.66 and ecommerce growth estimated $3 trillion by 2024, some analysts already suggesting better performance of the stock in near future. However, risk of growth lies with both local and international competitors including Amazon, Pinduodu & JD.
N.B!
- USOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#alibaba
#baba
BABA in a falling wedge (NEW)BABA stock has been in a long-term downtrend.
We're expecting the price to continue droping as it looks like it got rejected from the downsloping resistance line on the weekly timeframe.
What we can see on the chart is a pattern called a falling wedge.
Most likely the price will revisit $60 or lower but eventually we expect the breakout in Q2 or Q3 2023.
How to trade:
Enter long position if/when we get a breakout with a volume increase.
Final target and the take profit level are shown on the chart.
Good luck
$BABA: Long if breaking up...Alibaba has a nice potential setup here, which could trigger if we break over last week's high here. Stop can be tight as the move should have strong momentum. Reward to risk is over 4.43R, which is tremendous potential for a swing trade here. If it breaks down instead of up, this trade idea is cancelled, but we could find a short entry trigger, depending on how it moves this week.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Alibaba (BABA) Update - 1/5/2023Alibaba Rose 13% yesterday amid news of Chinese regulators' approval to raise $1.5 B in its consumer finance unit. Of course, this is positive news for this stock.
The rally will likely continue until the stock breaks its resistance level of $105/share in the next couple of months before it tries to fill the gap caused by yesterday's rally.
Ps. This is not an investment Advice.
Alibaba Analysis 04.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis:
DGSTACC: CN1! MACRO ANALYSIS / CHANNEL CONFIRMATION & SUPPORTIn the chart above we are taking a look at CN1! in the 16 hour timeframe.
1. CN1! reaching an end to pennant formation in vital channel support.
2. Previous pennant breaks in current channel level has been bullish in the past.
3. Important to break past 13300 Supply Ceiling .
4. Channel deviation of 500 points .
5. Channel Above = 13800 - 13300 , Current Channel = 13300 - 12800 , Channel Below = 12800 - 12300.
ALIBABA Rejected on a huge Resistance cluster. Levels to watch.The Alibaba Group (BABA) is pulling back after being rejected not just on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but also at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Falling Wedge pattern holding since the October 20 2021 High.
This is a huge Resistance cluster as the RSI on the 1W time-frame also got rejected near its 54.00 Resistance. Technically, if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, the stock can test the 58.15 Support, even make a Lower Low on the -0.136 Fibonacci extension.
The MA trend-line that has been unbroken the longest (since February 25 2021) is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). As a result, if the price breaks above, naturally it will be a break above the 1 year Falling Wedge too, it should restore the bullish trend on the long-term. The first target in that case will be the previous High at 126.20.
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