Alibaba
BABA, Potential for bearish momentum | 23th May 2022With prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low support . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance is.
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BABA Potential for bearish momentum | 20th May 2022With prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and swing low support . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 100% Fibonacci projection is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BABA, Potential for bearish momentum | 19th May 2022On the H4, with the price reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BABA may not hold 87 pivot; is 73 D. Bottom next or the 50 zone?BABA is in a long downward pitchfork since the 320 ATH. In this weekly chart, BABA has been oscillating between the 2 green PITCHFORK lines (in a closing basis) since it made a diamond continuation pattern last Nov2021.
Last week it bounced from the pitchfork mired dotted median line has turned down again to the 87 pivot zone. If the 87 pivot zone doesn’t hold, we may see a double bottom at 73.
Worst case scenario may be the Max Pain zone at 50 to 45 down back to the green line but the bottom reversal will be very fast this time. That will take us back to 57.20 the 2015 bottom before the 5 Elliott waves even started, erasing all gains.
Not trading advice
BABA, Potential for bullish momentum | 18th May 2022On the H4, with the price reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 102.73 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 80.44 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 108.79 where the horizontal pullback resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BABA, Potential for bullish momentum | 18th May 2022On the H4, with the price reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 102.73 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 80.44 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 108.79 where the horizontal pullback resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BABA: This Great Bearish Trend will Hit $60 LevelCurrently, Alibaba is moving in an impressive bearish trend. During early March this year, the price has arrived at $80 level. Since then, we can see the price retraced and retested the previous support level and the trend line. In the chart, we can spot a descending triangle pattern, where the price has tested the $80 support level three times, simultaneously with highs getting lower and lower. Therefore, this indicates a strong bearish momentum attempting to push down the price to break the support level.
Currently, we are not preparing any entries because the price is right at the support level. If the price clearly breaks below, then we will resume our plans to continue entering sell positions after a retracement.
Check out our other trend following trading ideas :)
Alibaba - BABAWeekly Chart (right side)
- Nice long-term downtrend since mid-February 2021
Daily Chart (left side)
- Gab mid-March 2022 showed a nice support which were tested end of April 2022
- Another gab in the last days is currently showing some support
- The 50-MA is currently a strong resistance
- The MACD is slightly improving and the RSI just jumped over the important level of 50
The long-term all-time low (not displayed) is at USD 57.20 and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement at USD 119.06 which marks a resistance, too
As the next earning report is expected on May 6 and the long-term trend is still bearish, I’m still not catching the falling knife.
Alibaba (NYSE: $BABA) Rock'n Higher On China Stimulus News! 👲🤟Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The company operates Taobao Marketplace, a social commerce platform; Tmall, a third-party online and mobile commerce platform for brands and retailers; Alimama, a monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; and Tmall Global and Kaola, which are import e-commerce platforms. It also operates Lingshoutong that connects FMCG manufacturers and their distributors to small retailers; Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, the company offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, it provides elastic computing, database, storage, virtualization network, large-scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, machine learning platform, and Internet of Things services. Additionally, the company operates Youku, an online video platform; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency app; and Tmall Genie, an AI-enabled smart speaker. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
BABA should hold 83 then BO Channel or 70 will be double bottomBABA has been making a long downchannel which has to be broken to be really bullish.
First it must hold the current 83 FIB level, then BO the downchannel at around 95. After that BABA will
still face a big resistance zone at the 110 to 130 range. There will be a lot of sellers here which the new buyers must be willing to absorb in order for the price to go above this critical zone.
Failure to hold the current 83 Fib level to see a double bottom for BABA at 70. This will be very very near the end of that big ABC correction.
BABA is the top e-commerce company in China (Amazon of China but with a very low PE ratio after this crash).
Not trading advice
$BABA, $AMZN 's dirty little secret.NYSE:BABA
Anyone paying attention to $BABA?
Are you considering buying into the $AMZN stock split?
Are you concerned about chinese stock delisting?
Geopolitics, Index fund Managers, lobbying, market reset by the FED's and technical analysis (the psychology of the investor) have a lot to do with what happens in the future.
Did you know that as of 2021, China-based sellers represented 75 percent of new sellers on Amazon, according to a report by Marketplace Pulse. This marks a significant increase from 47 percent in the previous year.
This large segment of China-based sellers on Amazon has not yet impacted the gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share. Domestic sellers are responsible for most of the total sales.
Three-quarters of new sellers in the top four core Amazon markets — U.S., UK, Germany, and Japan — are based in China. That percentage is the calculated average of the four marketplaces, according to Marketplace Pulse analysis of more than 40,000 sellers that joined those Amazon marketplaces so far in 2021.
So what does this mean for the future of $AMZN prices?
Simply, if BABA gets delisted; the revenge from the Chinese government will be major; you think logistical issues, trucker shortages, and inflation is affecting prices? You've not seen nothing yet!
My assumption is that the market reset is going as planned with major impact on Chinese stocks to limit the momentum of Chinese GDP (#2) against the U.S. (#1).
The U.S. needs China just as much China needs the U.S. so the lobbying power of $AMZN and the rest will ensure the continuity of Chinese presence in the U.S. (those max profits are critically needed).
Oooh before I forget, technical analysis:
Daily Chart
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): 20/50/100/200 EMA (everyone and their mama) are pointing downwards ! This spells bad news, especially going into May (a slow market month)
TTM Squeeze: Squeezing to the bottom; momentum to the downside for both $AMZN and $BABA.
Fib Levels: $BABA - with the current red candle crossing below the .618, there is very high probability that the price action will aim for the 1 fib. This will take us to the previous support and low of $73.28 or a possibility of going below that.
Candle Stick: Summary of last 5 candles equate to a bearish movement. The last pairs look like a Bearish engulfing
Pattern: Down by the sea ... off to the Falling Wedge for both $BABA and $AMZN
News: Do I need to add more to the above? Well, with $NFLX taking a whooping on recent price increase policy, do you think $AMZN may face the same fate?
History: The last 2 earnings have resulted in a downward trend even with great numbers. Everyone and their mama is talking about this stock...
Company is worth Trillions and the consumer base love them... hmm... I really need to be buying the bottom.
BABA the Daily Journal sold 50% of its stake in itIf you haven`t sold on growth concerns:
Then you should know that after averaging down multiple times, Daily Journal Corp, where investor Charlie Munger served as chairman until very recently, cut its stake by roughly 50%.
My expectation is to see a double bottom in BABA this year.
Bullish on BABA"Be greedy when others are fearful"
BABA is 70% off its highs from a year and a half ago and many investors are jaded. Looking at the technicals however, I'm seeing plenty of reasons to consider BABA a great opportunity to DCA into a long position here. The relentless overhead resistance and downward momentum appear to be dissipating as sellers run out of steam. Value buyers appear to be stepping in and the charts are showing increasing support. In addition, I'm seeing bullish divergence on the daily chart and a possible signal of a shift of momentum. All these signs lead me to think BABA is preparing to turn the corner. I'm not ready to call the bottom on BABA, but I'm interested in accumulating.
Happy Trading
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These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing.
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