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ALIBABA, SPECULATION MODE ON!Alibaba Group Holding Limited, also known as Alibaba Group and Alibaba.com, is a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, Internet, and technology. Strong divergence on the monthly. The price level at which Alibaba now stands has always been characterized by high volatility in the past. The market has always reacted with a reabsorption over 60% of the time in the past at this level. This opens the scenario to an interesting short-term speculative operation which, in the event of a positive outcome, could turn into a medium-term operation on an asset which, ignoring short-term problems, creates several points of GDP for the Chinese economy. High risk transaction, the investor should consider the volatility of the underlying and the riskiness of the transaction in managing this asset.
NYSE:BABALong
by UnknownUnicorn25541012
Best Deep-Value Large-cap Growth play - Alibaba (BABA)Macro Reasons -China has a population of 1.3billion VS US's 0.33 Billion, about 4x more -Rising Chinese middle class with a growing disposable income -It is estimated that China's GDP is set to overtake the US in 5-8 years Fundamentals Reasons -With 56% of the e-commerce market share in China and a growing e-commerce pie, Alibaba is poised for greater growth in 5-10years -Supported by Cainiao logistics to enable efficient e-commerce delivery and Alipay to complete its transactions/funding for their merchants, it forms Alibaba's iron triangle to capture a large market share in the e-commerce related space. -Dominant Cloud player at 40% market share, this segment just turned profitable recently and will contribute to its growth strongly like Amazon's AWS (30% margins) Valuation FCF: 26Bil USD per year i.e 9.6 USD per share (2.711 Billion shares outstanding) 20X multiple(Bottom valuation) : 192 USD per share 25X multiple(Bottom valuation) : 240 USD per share Net Cash of 20 USD per share (462bil RMB Cash - 115bil RMB Debt = 347 RMB Net Cash = 54bil USD net Cash ) Fair Value at current conditions = 212 USD per share (20X FCF) - 260 USD per share (25X FCF) FCF 10 years later: 9.6 USD *4.04 (15% CAGR for 10 yrs) = 38.78 USD per share 20X multiple (10% discount rate - 5% perp growth): 775 USD per share +20USD net cash =795 USD per share 795/215 (Current share price 14th June 2021) = 3.70X in 10 years* i.e 14% CAGR *Very conservative estimate of 15% CAGR FCF & terminal multiple of 20X, also assuming all FCF are re-invested in other biz and not distributed via dividends/ buybacks Technicals Seems like it is at its bottom after a 30% slump in its share price, touching a very strong upward sloping support line indicating the bottom is near. Incidentally, it corresponds with the bottom valuation of 212 USD per share (20X FCF + net cash). Addressing Risks Risks of VIE structure & CCP risk are unfounded, one can easily exchange its ADR for the equivalent HK shares at the ratio of 1ADR:8 HK shares and Alibaba is too big to fail for the CCP. The recent USD2.8 Billion fine on BABA is only 4% of revenue and not as dramatic as the 30% slump in BABA's recent valuation (from $310 to $211 per share). Also, the CCP has recently approved Ant Group’s new license to operate Chongqing Ant Consumer Finance, in which it has a 50 per cent stake. This indicates that the CCP doesn't want to tear down Alibaba but rather work towards a more successful China together.
NYSE:BABALong
by FIRE_CAPITAL_SG
1
ALIBABA :DETAILED FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - LONG TECHNICAL SETUP ⭐️Alibaba stock has been in a downtrend for some time, even though the company continues to post solid earnings and sales growth. Alibaba stock has come under increased regulatory scrutiny in the last couple of months. BABA stock climbed to its 50-day moving average at the beginning of this week, but is this stock worth buying now? Alibaba shares fell May 13 after the company missed fourth-quarter earnings forecasts, but revenue growth expedited for the fourth straight quarter, rising 77% to $28.6 billion. Previously, sellers dropped Alibaba stock on Nov. 3 after the IPO of Ant Group, Alibaba's $34.5 billion fintech unit, was suspended in Shanghai and Hong Kong. The decision to suspend the IPO came after Shanghai Exchange officials said the exchange would suspend the listing due to the company's inability to meet conditions amid regulatory changes. Sellers pounced on Alibaba stock again on Nov. 5 after the company reported earnings and missed sales. BABA shares plummeted another 8% on Nov. 10 after Chinese regulators stated new outline antitrust rules for Chinese online platforms such as Alibaba and JD.com, among others. Alibaba's third-quarter earnings report in February showed another quarter of strong bottom-line and top-line growth. Adjusted earnings rose 30% to $3.38 per share. Revenue growth accelerated for the third consecutive quarter, rising 46% to $33.87 billion. The company's cloud computing revenue grew 50% year over year to $2.47 billion. "Our cloud computing business continues to expand market leadership and is showing strong growth, reflecting the enormous potential of China's nascent cloud computing market as well as our multi-year investment in technology," Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang said in a press release. China's e-commerce market is valued at $2.1 trillion and is the largest in the world. Its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to be 12.4% and reach $3 trillion by 2024. Alibaba is a great way to bet on this opportunity because its dominant market share in consumer-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce is about 50%. That compares to JD.com and Pinduoduo's B2C shares of 27% and 13%, respectively. A day after the earnings report, Alibaba shares dropped 3.5% on Feb. 3 after the company's fintech unit, Ant Group, reached an agreement with Chinese regulators to restructure and become a financial holding company. Ant Group operates a suite of financial products, including Alipay, China's widely used digital wallet. It's hard to find a company with a more impressive growth record than Alibaba. Over five years, the company's annual revenue growth rate was 29% and its sales growth rate was 46%. Expectations were high for Alibaba's annual Singles Day event in November, the largest shopping day in China. The company did not disappoint, with sales nearly doubling from a year earlier to $74 billion. The company managed to maintain its growth mode despite a slowdown in its core e-commerce business. Alibaba's business in China is a lot like Amazon's business in the United States. Alibaba's cloud computing business is showing strong growth, as is Amazon's thriving Web services business. Alibaba is anticipated to make $9.93 per share in the current fiscal year 2022, unchanged from 2021. In 2023, however, it is expected to grow faster, 28% to $12.69. Alibaba's subsidiaries Taobao and Tmall use third-party business models. Instead of buying inventory and retailing to consumers, they operate marketplaces that host and promote other companies' online sales for a fee. This strategy helps save operating costs and provides Alibaba with significantly higher margins than its closest competitor JD.com, which uses a first-party business model. In 2020, Alibaba's operating profit margin was 13%, much higher than JD.com's operating profit margin, which was just 1.7% during the same period. But Alibaba is not limited to e-commerce. The company is also looking to transform retail with a concept known as "New Retail," which includes digitizing the personal shopping experience. Alibaba has executed this strategy through its Freshippo grocery store chain, which offers advanced features such as digital price tags, robotic food transportation, and robotic waiters. The company also spent $3.6 billion to acquire a majority stake in the Sun Art hypermarket retail chain to expand its physical presence. With such a huge market share, Alibaba attracted the attention of Chinese antitrust authorities, who fined it $2.8 billion for allegedly restricting competition and encroaching on the business of its merchants. The company imposed a " choose one" requirement that prohibited some customers from working with other e-commerce platforms. Company executives agreed with the fine and said they planned to enforce the requirements in the future. It's not that clear whether compliance will have a long-term impact on Alibaba's operating results (the fine, which is only 12% of 2020 net income, probably won't). But given Alibaba's high growth rate and its low valuation, any potential weakness looks justified.
NYSE:BABALong
by FOREXN1
15
ALIBABA: Bullish environmentHi Traders, This is my view on this stock for the next few days. #ALIBABA BUY 225.30 SL 207.9 TP 270 I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are. Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected. If you follow my strategy you will be able to identify the right filters and triggers to enter correctly the market and avoid fake signals. I really hope you liked this video and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below this video to give me your point of view. Thank You ——————————— Pietro from Trading Kitchen
NYSE:BABALong
by kitchen_trading
Alibaba Investment Idea Fundamental side of the Idea: With a five-year annualized earnings growth rate of 29% and a sales growth rate of 47%, it’s hard to find a company with a more impressive track record of growth than Alibaba. It’s been a big winner since its IPO in September 2014. Expectations were high for Alibaba’s Singles Day annual shopping event in November, and the company didn’t disappoint as sales nearly doubled from the year-ago period to $74 billion. The company has been able to stay in growth mode despite a slowdown in its core e-commerce business. Alibaba’s business in China looks a lot like Amazon’s in the U.S. Alibaba’s cloud-computing business is showing solid growth, just like Amazon’s booming web services business. Annual return on equity of 21% and pretax margin of 31.3% help its top-notch SMR Rating (sales + margins + return on equity) of A from IBD Stock Checkup. With Stock Checkup, you can easily see who the group leaders are based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors. For its current fiscal year 2021, earnings per share are expected to jump 36%, with 15% growth seen in fiscal 2022. Technichal side of the Idea: I am waiting for the price at 0,38 level (202,97USD), if the Price rebounded from this zone I am going to buy. But if the price breaks this zone, the stock Price could decrease more in. There is a possibility that the price will increase to 247,58 USD, after that we may see a pullback to 225,41 USD before the price starts to increase again . If you have any questions, Do not hesitate to contact me . Sara Sadki
NYSE:BABALong
by SaraSadki
BABA aka ALIBABA IdeaG'day Guys. How ya doing? Today we start our analysis with different from Forex. As our previous posting still valid and on progress following our projections. Here our today first market preview. I believe most of you guys know about ALIBaba. Let's me elaborate the idea. Base on bigger time-frame this pair showing of an minor trend, what i can see here this pair started losing a momentum to keep fighting with outside financial markets. In human behavior perspective, this pair taking time to re-planning and restructuring their company to keep sustain in the markets. I strongly believe this company on going creating a new business or a new competitive product. So I am not shock if Alibaba has something new soon. In technical perspective, investor looking for liquidate their investment to make hard cash. Yeah let's what happen next. Here you go, please comment and like if you guys like this idea. Thanks Cheers.
NYSE:BABALong
by EYFMarkets
2
55 % chance - ALIBABA share price analysisHello all, Today I am taking a look at the Alibaba chart, - The price is in a positive overriding trend. - Alibaba shows a tendency to break through the golden pocket once in a correction, but then to continue to run positively in the trend. - This breakthrough has already been made in the current correction. - The second reaction at the golden pocket looks encouraging - In the long term, the current trend channel could consolidate further The plan - I would like to take a long position at the cross-support of the golden pocket and the lower trend lines. - If the price does not touch the golden pocket again in combination with a trend line, I will not find an entry point and remain a spectator. - As a long-term price target I use the trend-based Fib extension - One for the watchlist, no trade is acute yet Buy zone: 227 - 222 points, only in combination with a trend line Target zone: 360 points With this in mind, Good luck & Keep it simple! Max
NYSE:BABALong
by CRV_Trader
Maintain Long Position for AlibabaLast week, there was a slight pullback, but overall the rebound from the lower gan fan still will increase the momentum of this NYSE:BABA Next week's trading range will be around 251.28 - 266.28. So, if your current position is below this range, you can use this range to close the position and/or average up/reentry on the bottom range. The next strong resistance will be around 285, but the first challenge will be around 275. Cut loss position will be the nearest Support around 245. I will maintain my current ideas for the Long position with these conditions. Have fun and safe trade. Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes and is not an investment recommendation or representative of professional expertise. This analysis used herein is for illustration purposes only. This personal opinion should not be considered specific investment advice. I am not responsible for any trades, and individuals are solely responsible for any live trades placed in their own personal accounts.
NYSE:BABALong
by bakkarianz
5
Alibaba -how to play this trade with a sea of bad news ?So Alibaba has seen its share of problems in the last months, from intervention from the Chinese government to fear of being delisted in the US from trumps administration in his battle with Chinese stocks to the missing Jack Ma that we still don’t know where he disappeared to ...? a lot of conspiracy theories in that story.. Well with all this mess I choose to look at the technicals and see what they say. First, we see stock bottomed down to 211$ on Dec 23rd and gave us a new lower low that we can base on. The rise of Alibaba started yesterday on the news that the US will not delist the stock but let's not forget that is NOT what made the stock tumble down but the cancelation of the Chinese government on the IPO of Ant Group and the intent to nationalize both Ant group and Alibaba and of course the missing former English teacher and China’s poster boy for success -Jack Ma. A lot of bad news and I am here to bet the opposite in the short term (only short term) , from what the chart tells us along with the current sentiment on the stock is that there is a new rise of optimism in the air and the stock will regain some of its loses in the upcoming days to weeks. The first target for this prediction to come true is a price target of 251$ which will indicate a correction to the 0.618 line, and the fill on the gap of 9$ (241 to 250). If that target is achieved the stock will get more attention and the volume (buzz sentiment) will go up and take the stock to 269$. At the 269$ I can see we will have a correction downwards back to the 250-255$ line. We must remember when trading sentiment and fundamental news it's all about what the volume is displaying us as it is a clear mirror to the investor’s behavior. If we see Alibaba retreating back down to below the 225$ line, then my analysis is disproven and should be ignored! By the way, on this chart, I used a public analysis tool called the “Bottom down tool”, a great way of seeing if the asset is bottomed down if crosses the 20 line. This is a high-risk trade and I argue you to do your own DD and keep an eye on the 225$ line to avoid entering too early Trade safe and a happy 2021 from FDGT!
NYSE:BABALong
by FDGT_academy
2