Alibaba's Slide Continues! Three Targets Hit, Awaiting Final TP4Technical Analysis: Alibaba – 15-Minute Timeframe (Short Trade)
Alibaba has shown strong bearish momentum, hitting three profit targets after a clear short entry at 108.26. The price is now approaching the final target (TP4), making this trade highly successful so far.
Key Levels
Entry: 108.26 – The short trade was initiated after confirming a clear bearish setup.
Stop-Loss (SL): 109.65 – Positioned above resistance to manage risk and protect against potential reversals.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 106.53 – Successfully reached, confirming the start of a strong downtrend.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 103.73 – Continued bearish pressure pushed the price to this level.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 100.94 – A further downside target that has already been achieved.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 99.21 – The ultimate target, currently awaiting completion as the bearish trend continues.
Trend Analysis
The price remains below the Risological Dotted trendline, confirming a strong downtrend. With three profit targets already hit, the market appears poised to reach the final target at 99.21 if bearish momentum persists.
The short trade on Alibaba has been highly successful, hitting TP1, TP2, and TP3, with the final target TP4 in sight. The continued downward movement suggests that 99.21 could be reached shortly, concluding the trade profitably.
Alibabashort
Alibaba to breakdown?Alibaba - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 79.38 (stop at 84.38)
The primary trend remains bullish.
The stock is currently underperforming in its sector.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
Daily signals are bearish.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
79.48 has been pivotal.
A break of the recent low at 79.48 should result in a further move lower.
Our profit targets will be 67.38 and 65.38
Resistance: 85.00 / 88.50 / 91.43
Support: 82.70 / 79.48 / 75.00
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BABA Chinese government reshuffle spooks investorsSHORT
The Alibaba (BABA) share price has struggled so far in 2022, falling by 44.7% year-to-date (YTD).
Chinese e-commerce and technology sectors are facing fresh challenges: The Nasdaq Golden Dragon index, which tracks US-listed shares in Chinese companies, shed a record 14% following announcements that Xi Jinping has extended his rule to a third term as president – and filled senior government roles with party loyalists. In the 24 hours following the announcement, Alibaba fell 18%.
The Hang Seng Index also fared dismally, dropping 1,030 points to a 13-year low, following investor concern that the new government would stifle the economy and private enterprise. With China’s zero-Covid policy now cemented in the near term, along with government support for Vladimir Putin, a bearish sentiment might continue for tech stocks as investors stick to a risk-off mode.
The strict zero-Covid controls implemented by the Chinese government have resulted in lockdowns which have disturbed supply chains and the manufacturing industry.
In an article for CNBC, Antonella Teodoro, senior consultant at MDS Transmodal, said: “China’s zero-Covid approach is impacting production and manufacturers are seeking alternatives to the current ‘factory of the world’.
“Drilling down to the individual commodity groups exported from China, we observe that China has been continuing to lose market share, with Vietnam amongst the countries gaining importance on the international landscape.”
In March, the BABA share price fell below $100 for the first time since 2017. It has since been unable to hold above that level. But the stock had gained value since late May after the company announced its first-quarter earnings report.
The June-quarter earnings report was more positive: Daniel Zhang, chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, said: “Following a relatively slow April and May, we saw signs of recovery across our businesses in June. We are confident in our growth opportunities in the long term given our high-quality consumer base and the resilience of our diversified business model catering to different demands of our customers.”
Toby Xu, chief financial officer of Alibaba Group, also commented: “Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 resurgence, we delivered stable revenue performance year-over-year. We have narrowed losses in key strategic businesses given ongoing improvements in operating efficiency and increasing focus on cost optimisation .
“We recently shared our plan to add Hong Kong as another primary listing venue. By becoming primary listed on both Hong Kong and New York stock exchanges, we aim to further expand and diversify our investor base.”
Is the current share price at a good entry point for investors looking to make an Alibaba stock investment? Has the share price bottomed out or is there potential for it to retreat again?
Historical stock price data shows that BABA dropped by 49% in 2021, ending the year at $118.79 a share, as worries about the Chinese market and a sell-off in technology stocks in the US exerted further downward pressure.
In April last year, the Chinese government fined the company $2.8bn for what the State Administration for Market Regulation said was monopolistic behaviour
The record fine was lower than the market had anticipated and removed some of the uncertainty surrounding the potential penalty that would be imposed. However, a gain in the share price was short-lived and it continued the downward trend that started in October 2020, after hitting its all-time highest stock price of $309.92.
Alibaba announced its December quarter 2021 results on the same day that Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine (24 February 2022), leading to much market upheaval, particularly in the technology sector.
What may also have concerned investors was that its revenue figures represented its slowest quarterly growth rate since going public in 2014. Revenues totalled RMB242.58bn ($38.07bn) in the October-December period, an increase of 10% year-over-year (YoY).
Don't Buy BABA in the short TermTechnical Analysis:
- As you can can see in the chart, Alibaba(BABA) is still correcting in short term wave V in red and it must be completed around $43 when we think smart buyers will appear
- If the price crosses the invalidation level around $121.30 it means that the correction is over or we can have a bounce in WXY Structure in wave IV which will extend more higher before goes lower
- H1 Right Side is Turning Up
- H4 Right Side is Turning Down
Technical Information:
- Wait for the correction in wave ((II)) in black to be completed in order to buy
Did $BABA stock BOTTOM?My experience
I owned shares of Alibaba for the last 10 months. I started buying when it dropped to $140 in November 2021, and then I started averaging costing during the downtrend, my average price was around $110 and I completely closed my position at the beginning of July 2022 when it traded at $120. In conclusion, made a small 10% during this period, assuming a lot of risks, having money stuck in there creating an opportunity cost for other investments.
My first lesson here was "Never try to catch a falling knife" . I've read this quote many times, but I got pushed by the FOMO back in 2021, when I should have waited for some consolidation or lateral movements of the price, to show me some kind of demand at this level before jumping in.
I'm sharing my experience in this situation with the idea to help someone with making better investment decisions. The truth is, you must always learn from your own mistakes. But learning from others' mistakes will save you time, stress and money. However, this is where experience lays, funny isn't it?
Long-Term Forecast
Alibaba is a very interesting business model, with incredible growth in the past. I think that the chart reflects an evolution from a Growth Company to a Stable Company , that's why the P/E valuation went from 30x in the past to 15x nowadays. The market included the growth slowdown to its market cap.
Of course, there are many other risks related to Alibaba that also impacted its price during the last year. Some of them are:
- Uncertainty Risk is related to the political pressure between the USA and China.
- Delisting Risk from NYSE.
- Monopoly fines from China.
Changes in Chinese state policy regarding publicly traded enterprises , the warming of relations between the US and China, as well as current geopolitical developments where China is implied have created uncertainty for investors. This results in a negative impact on the price of the stock.
There are factors that could influence the Chinese government to be tolerant and lower the pressure on publicly traded enterprises, particularly if they choose to give a higher priority to stronger GDP development .
Taking everything into account, this could be a fantastic buying opportunity if China is becoming the next world's superpower. However, from my personal point of view, I would rather have companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in my portfolio. I see better potential returns in them.
Short-Term Forecast
The price is showing consolidation in the zone between $80-$120, the lower part of the channel reflects a strong demand, which is easily spotted by the strong bounces that it has from there. You can also try to trade it by buying near the bottom of the lateral channel and selling it at the top.
$BABA released good quarterly earnings, beating expectations in sales and EPS. We should also take into account that when your revenue stays flat in an inflationary environment, probably your income from operations is going to decrease, and that's what happened here.
Bullish Scenario
If the momentum stays and the market breaks and maintains the $4300 level we can see a significant upside in this stock. Taking it to 120-160 dollars per share. Which in my humble opinion is less likely due to the market conditions and economic challenges that we are facing. The RECESSION is here, and the INFLATION has to go straight down from these levels to prevent a crash in the financial markets.
Bearish Scenario
If the INFLATION is unstoppable at these interest rates, the market is going to be severely punished. Less consumer demand due to the recession will impact companies' margins. Profit warnings from companies will accelerate the crash. If we find ourselves in this situation, get your cash ready, many investment opportunities will be out there waiting for us. In this case, I would adapt my strategy, and I could consider buying some $BABA at $60 for sure.
Alibaba is having strong buybacks from the management. The company has plenty of cash which is going to be used to reduce the outstanding amount of shares and to undertake investment projects. The Debt-Equity Ratio is around 15%, and the company has a healthy balance sheet. The Cloud Segment is getting bigger and it can also be a very important stream of income in the future for the firm. The company is actually trading at 10X Price / Cash Flow, which historically has meant that it is a good buy at this level. From a financial perspective, I think that $BABA is undervalued.
The above mentioned characteristics made me start buying the stock at $140, my mistake was that I didn't properly analyse the risks this investment had. Not everything is in the accounting books! Keep your eyes open!
I stand SHORT for the next 6-12 months and LONG for the next 3-5 years.
Don't forget, I'm a random guy on the internet that is just sharing his point of view. Do not take my reflections as financial advice.
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze !!!BABA passed wave 5 in the Resistance Zone , and I expect that it will go DOWN to PRZ ( Price Reversal Zone ) & near the SMA 100 ( Daily Timeframe ) after breaking the Important Support Line .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD-) between Price and MACD Indicator .
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze ( BABAUSD ) Timeframe 4H ⏰ ( Heikin Ashi )
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze 🔄(Update)🔄!!!First, I have to back to my previous idea about Alibaba Group Holding. Do you remember it? 👇(it moved as I ✅expected✅).
BABA passed main wave B in the Resistance Zone, and I expect it to go DOWN to the end of main wave C that I showed in my chart.
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze (BABAUSD), Timeframe 4H⏰ (Heikin Ashi).
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Alibaba: more room to fall?Alibaba
Short Term
We look to Sell at 87.83 (stop at 92.37)
We look to set shorts in the early trade. The medium term bias remains bearish. Short term bearish momentum has stalled. However, with the intraday chart now highlighting lower highs we are possibly forming a descending triangle pattern.
Our profit targets will be 78.05 and 73.21
Resistance: 100.00 / 120.00 / 138.00
Support: 90.00 / 78.00 / 75.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
BABA the Daily Journal sold 50% of its stake in itIf you haven`t sold on growth concerns:
Then you should know that after averaging down multiple times, Daily Journal Corp, where investor Charlie Munger served as chairman until very recently, cut its stake by roughly 50%.
My expectation is to see a double bottom in BABA this year.
BABA Lowest Growth on Record !!If you haven`t sold BABA here, when i warned you about the additional American depositary share registration in the U.S. that was translated by Citigroup`s analysts as SoftBank Group intention to sell part of its stake.
Softbank was a pre-initial public offering investor in BABA, owning 5.39 billion ordinary Alibaba shares, or a 24.8% stake.
Then you should know that Alibaba had the Lowest Growth on Record. Sales rose 9.7% in Q4, below the 40%-plus growth that was common. consumer spending slows and competition intensifies.
Net income tumbled 74% to $3.2 billion.
And probably Softbank sells an important stake in it.
I`m curious what is Charlie Munger`s conviction buy opinion on BABA now.
My price target is the Dec 2016 level of $86.
Alibaba to Keep Falling? Alibaba - Short Term - We look to Sell a break of 109.62 (stop at 117.14)
A break of 110.00 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum. Closed below the 20-day EMA. The trend of lower highs is located at 128.00. Our overall sentiment remains bearish looking for lower levels. The primary trend remains bearish.
Our profit targets will be 89.94 and 85.50
Resistance: 128.00 / 140.00 / 150.00
Support: 110.00 / 90.00 / 80.00
Alibaba is due to report earnings on the 8th February 2022. Trading over earnings releases carries additional risk and volatility is expected.
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
BABA SoftBank to Sell Its Huge Stake ???Additional American depositary share registration in the U.S. was translated by Citigroup`s analysts as SoftBank Group intention to sell part of its stake.
Softbank was a pre-initial public offering investor in BABA, owning 5.39 billion ordinary Alibaba shares, or a 24.8% stake,
The can drop to the $109 support, if not even lower.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Alibaba -how to play this trade with a sea of bad news ?So Alibaba has seen its share of problems in the last months, from intervention from the Chinese government to fear of being delisted in the US from trumps administration in his battle with Chinese stocks to the missing Jack Ma that we still don’t know where he disappeared to ...? a lot of conspiracy theories in that story..
Well with all this mess I choose to look at the technicals and see what they say.
First, we see stock bottomed down to 211$ on Dec 23rd and gave us a new lower low that we can base on. The rise of Alibaba started yesterday on the news that the US will not delist the stock but let's not forget that is NOT what made the stock tumble down but the cancelation of the Chinese government on the IPO of Ant Group and the intent to nationalize both Ant group and Alibaba and of course the missing former English teacher and China’s poster boy for success -Jack Ma.
A lot of bad news and I am here to bet the opposite in the short term (only short term) , from what the chart tells us along with the current sentiment on the stock is that there is a new rise of optimism in the air and the stock will regain some of its loses in the upcoming days to weeks.
The first target for this prediction to come true is a price target of 251$ which will indicate a correction to the 0.618 line, and the fill on the gap of 9$ (241 to 250). If that target is achieved the stock will get more attention and the volume (buzz sentiment) will go up and take the stock to 269$.
At the 269$ I can see we will have a correction downwards back to the 250-255$ line.
We must remember when trading sentiment and fundamental news it's all about what the volume is displaying us as it is a clear mirror to the investor’s behavior.
If we see Alibaba retreating back down to below the 225$ line, then my analysis is disproven and should be ignored!
By the way, on this chart, I used a public analysis tool called the “Bottom down tool”, a great way of seeing if the asset is bottomed down if crosses the 20 line.
This is a high-risk trade and I argue you to do your own DD and keep an eye on the 225$ line to avoid entering too early
Trade safe and a happy 2021 from FDGT!