Bearish outlook on the SPXFeel free to help me with my analysis but this is what I'm seeing :
Long term yearly trend is bullish, we've been heading up for quite some time.
SPX has a clear bearish divergence on the weekly RSI (3 points touching bearish trendline with each one lower than the last).
We tested the longterm upper trendline and successfully broke to the upside in November 2020 creating a new ATH at around $4800. We then retested the support and failed, had a mini fakeout again, before seemingly breaking through to the upside of the long term trendline again recently in week 3 of January 2023, with, hopefully week 4 being the confirmation candle.
Now onto what I project might happen :
In my opinion, the most likely scenario is a bearish one, due to the divergence on the weekly. But, in the short term, I see us retesting the ATH at $4800. Unfortunately this will fail and create a double top pattern, coinciding with all the other indicators that tell us to sell. This will likely see us fall back to the previous longterm trendlines support line at around $3500. This would not only complete the cycle, but also converge on a very interesting historic 8 year cycle.
Peak of 1999/2000 -> Peak of 2007 -> Peak of 2015 -> Peak of 2023
Thought it was interesting how everything seems to coincide. So my trading plan is to buy now, sell around $4720, and short down to the support trendline. Wish me luck.
Please let me know your thoughts. Always looking to learn from other traders. Thanks.
